(Nephi Garcia-USF, Austin Sikorski-UMD, Chris Smith-UIU, Tyler Tonderum-SMSU)


Witt's NSIC Season Preview

After looking at the NSIC Coaches Preseason Poll, I've quickly come to the conclusion that I'm seeing this upcoming season measurably different than they are. Don't get me wrong, much is the same from their poll to mine, but plenty is fairly different as well. I've decided to rank the teams 1 through 16 without regard to North or South Division and I've posted what I think their record will be as well. Without further delay, here we go..

1. UMD Bulldogs - Duluth returns a lot of their difference-makers and I feel the brunt of their schedule will be easy for such a strong program. Playing in the North I don't see the Bulldogs being really tested more than a time or two this upcoming regular season. I think they have enough to win their 2 toughest games, both on the road, against Winona State and SCSU. I wouldn't be shocked if they lost either, but I think those 2 teams will be fairly potent as well.

A few weeks ago when I learned of all-league defensive tackle Buma Foncham being medically out for the season, and Austin Sikorski getting stabbed, I feared for Duluth that maybe the positive energy around the program was taking a turn the other way. However, Sikorski will likely be back before you know it and I'm not sure the Bulldogs are going to miss a beat. I'm expecting 2nd year starter Drew Bauer to become an increased threat in the office and to better his passing numbers a bit as well.

The UMD defense was among tops in the conference and with plenty of that group returning they should be very solid once again.

I like UMD to go unbeaten during the regular season and to position themselves in a spot to go deep into the playoffs and have teams come up to Duluth. Few teams if any have the type of seasonal/weather advantage that the Bulldogs have at home.
Prediction: 11-0

2. Minnesota State Mankato Mavericks - The Mavs lose some huge skill players, swap Coach Hoffner back in for Coach Keen, and gain some high profile transfers. First things first, the departure of players like Jon Wolf and Dennis Carter are huge losses for the Mavs offense. Wolf's ability to run first to set up the play action pass really kept defenses guessing. Dennis Carter was the most dangerous threat downfield in the league. The Mavs also had plenty of key losses on defense, not to mention the exit of their leader Coach Aaron Keen. Some might say the departure of Keen has the greatest sting of them all. I'm not sure that I'm ready to say that, but it's clear that the players had a world of trust and belief in Coach Keen. I think if Todd Hoffner can some early wins against some tough squads that he too will gain great trust in the players.

Replacing Jon Wolf at quarterback will be Southern Miss transfer Ricky Lloyd, who started a handful of games for Golden Eagles as a freshman. Watching some film on Lloyd, he's a different type of quarterback than Wolf was. Wolf was seemingly a greater threat to run the football (as he was so electric as a runner) than he was passing it. He could still throw, but he wasn't used often as a high volume thrower. Lloyd is about the same size as Wolf, but doesn't have the wide-receiver athleticism that Jon had. Don't think that means Lloyd can't move, he can. He will tuck it under and run a few times a game for the Mavs and his long strides make his wheels somewhat deceptive, but in watching him throw that's where his real attributes are. He's a patient, big armed, quick release thrower that has nice touch. If Hoffner decides to turn him loose, he could be a top passer in this league. With fellow-transfer Jameer Jackson (UND WR), who's 6-3 and 235 lbs, a big time connection might be seen early. In the meantime, the Mavs should still be able to pound the football very well with their tandem of runnings backs and solid offensive line.


(MSU QB Ricky Lloyd)

Overall I think the Mavs take a step back from their fantastic last two seasons, due to the rest of the South continuing to get better year-over-year and with all the change the Mavs have seen since their last football game. I think they drop a game in the regular season, but still make the playoffs and make for a very tough team to handle in the playoffs.
Prediction: 10-1

3. St. Cloud State Huskies - The Huskies have graduated the player that I felt had the single greatest impact on team success in 2013, QB Phil Klaphake. I think that he meant more to his team's success than any other player in the league. That said, replacing him (4 year starter) will be an immense task. South Dakota State transfer Nate Meyer is probably a slight favorite to take over the quarterbacking role, but Jameson Parsons has gotten praise from the coaching staff as well. Meyer is a very athletic player with plenty of arm. SCSU doesn't have the targets downfield they had last year, but they bring back their very talented offensive line. The line should help the quarterback progression, along with plenty of options returning at running back. I don't see the SCSU offense being quite as dynamic as they were last year, but I think they will still be very solid under new OC Chris Mussman.

On the defensive side of the ball the Huskies lose some of their biggest stars with Jack Moro and Marvin Matthews leaving the program, amongst others. These are fairly big losses and could put them in a position to occasionally be in a fire-fight.

With some of the year-to-year turnover the Huskies have seen, I have them still as a top team in the conference but I think they take a half step back. With road games at Mankato and USF, while still having Duluth and Mary on the schedule, I think they have plenty of early challenges.
Prediction: 9-2. Mineral Water Bowl Game.

4. Winona State Warriors - This is a team that I thought was flat out going to be better last year than they were. They had some good wins, but also some rough losses. I don't see Winona State having another "down" year. Jack Nelson is a very good young passer and brings back plenty of targets downfield, along with the return of oft-injured running back Theo Burnett. The Warriors do have some big losses on the offensive line and this could hinder them from being the best offense in the league. They should still be near the top offensively though.



On the defensive side of the ball is really where WSU went wrong last season. However, the Warriors are returning some good talent upfront and have very good new blood entering the back half. I don't see Winona becoming a top defense in the league overnight, but I think they will show marked improvement versus last year and not lose them games like 2013. The Warriors could very well challenge Mankato for the South title and maybe find themselves in the Mineral Water Bowl Game again. I think they fall just short of that, but have a good season.
Prediction: 9-2, in the mix for a Bowl Game.

5. University of Sioux Falls Cougars - After going 6-5 last year with probably the youngest team in the league, the Cougars should be ready to make back up to their spot in 2012 when they finished 9-2 and narrowly missed a Bowl Game. That said, I think the South is stronger now than it was even two years ago. The USF offense should be solid with the return of Luke Papilion at quarterback from a lingering injury that occured in the middle of last season. Luke's recovery has been slow and hindered to the point where hard charging sophomore Matt Young might emerge as the starter if Papilion is not ready to return yet. Luke is a very athletic runner for a taller quarterback, while Young has a rocket for an arm but is a smaller signal-caller. In a perfect world USF would love to find a way to have them both on the field at the same time, but USF doesn't have very many quarterbacks on the roster, so that's unlikely.

USF returns Nelpi Garcia at running back and he should be amongst the top rushers in the conference. Garcia is a very shifty runner who seldom gets taken for a loss. The challenge for the Coo will be replacing the production of do-everything Carrington Hanna. Hanna was the offensive MVP the last few years and USF will need a wideout to step up with both the short routes, along with finding a player to stretch the field. Last year USF didn't do a very good job of stretching the field vertically and if they can find a spark in that manner their offense could be pretty dangerous.

Defensively USF brings back a lot of starters, but also changes defensive coordinators and scheme. USF will come out in an attacking 4-3 scheme that will look a fair amount different from the Coo Defense of 2013 that struggles in pretty much all facets. In USF's glory days in the NAIA the Cougar defense was typically amongst the best at the level. DC Tremaine Jackson is looking to return some of that swagger with his 212-defense.

Overall I think USF shows real improvement and could find themselves close to the top of the conference, but a few key games like the SCSU game and Winona State will be very telling as to how the Coo finishes this year.
Prediction: 8-3

6. Mary Maruaders - This might be a surprise to some, but I think Mary has the right coach to continue their climb and some of the leagues top individual players returning. The Maruaders should be solid offensively with the best wide receiver tandom in the league returning (Jolliffe and Pope), along with being capable upfront. Zach Roberson will be replacing long-time thrower Craig Bagnell, but will be in capable hands with his great wideouts. I'd expect Mary to also strive for a little bit better balance between run and pass, unlike the last few seasons.

Defensively the Maruaders return one of the top players in all of D2, linebacker Grant Singer. Mary returns a fair amount of their better defensive players and should continue to progress as a defense.

Being in the weaker North division I really don't see Mary being challenged a lot by the lower half of the division. That said, I think Mary will have a tough time getting past Duluth and SCSU, but should take care of business against pretty much the rest of the their schedule.
Prediction: 8-3

7. Upper Iowa Peacocks - Coach Tom Shea brings back a ton of talent offensively. The Peacocks might bring back more offensive firepower than any other team in the NSIC. From QB to RB to WR to TE, etc. QB Cole Jaeschke can throw for a ton of yards, but he's also giving the ball to the opposition too much as well. Chris Smith had a monster year in 2013 and might end up being the top rusher in the conference 2014. With Lucus Hefty and Keaton Hosch giving Jaeschke great targets in the passing game, I'm expecting UIU to contend for having the best offense in the league. However, the Peacocks will likely continue to struggle defensively against the better NSIC offenses. I have UIU continuing their progression as a program and having another winning season in a very tough South.
Prediction: 6-5

8. Augustana Vikings - Even though the Vikings are coming off 2 bad seasons, they bring back a lot of players from a squad that was very good defensively last year but inept offensively. While I'm not sure I see the Augie D being quite as good, I do think they will look easily better offensively in 2014. The Vikings simply have too many good players at skill positions offensively to be that bad sustaining drives again this season. At the QB spot I think Coach OJ will stay with Trey Heid. With a year of experience under his belt Trey Heid should become a dangerous threat running the ball and an opportunistic passer. With Newell and Ham in the backfield, and a year of new offensive scheme completed, the Vikings should be able to have more success on the ground. An improved offense with a very solid defense is why I have the Vikings finishing better this season than the last two.
Prediction: 6-5


(Augustana RB Dajon Newell)

9. Southwest Minnesota State Mustangs - While SMSU brings back some great skill players offensively, they lose their entire starting offensive line that paved the way for the Tyler Tonderum last year. I think Tonderum will still have a solid campaign, but I think he has a measurable drop-off versus last years eye popping stats. I'm expecting the Mustangs to utilize a quick strike passing game to ease the burden on their new O-Line, and find ways to get the ball in Tonderum's hands in space. The problem is the Mustangs will likely be among the worst defenses in the league. Coach Sauter might have turned the corner when it comes to creating a new culture with the SMSU football program, but I think it will be hard to repeat their success of last year with much of the South getting stronger.
Prediction: 5-6

10. Minnesota State Moorhead Dragons - This is one of those picks that I differ quite a bit from the NSIC Coaches Poll. I think that the Dragons continue their improvement as a program and that their offensive firepower gets them to a winning season. Now if Moorhead was in the South I'd have a hard time seeing them above .500, but against the North I think they can do fairly well. QB Jack Hodge should continue to put up strong numbers in the passing game, but I do wonder if the very athletic guy he replaced due to injury (Demetrious Carr) will be in the mix or possibly moved to a different position to get his talent on the field. The Dragons are strong at the other skill positions as well, so their offense should be very strong. Similar to SMSU their achilles heel will be their defense that was among the NSIC's worst.
Prediction: 6-5


(Minnesota Moorhead QB Jake Hodge)

11. Bemidji State Beavers - BSU should be a little bit better than their 2013 showing, but I don't have them getting quite back to .500 football. The Beavers passing game was pretty bad and they might be looking to get a shot in the arm from Northern Iowa transfer Jordan Hein. Assuming the Beavers can get more from their aerial attack than they did last year, and their defense gets back to their hard-nose form, they will be better in 2014.
Prediction: 4-7

12. Northern State Wolves - With Jared Jacobson at the helm again the Wolves have a steady but not dynamic leader at quarterback. Hopes were high in 2013 but the season went bad relatively quickly. The Wolves could be better than I'm giving them credit for in the 12-spot, but in watching a few games of theirs last season I'm just not seeing it right now.
Prediction: 3-8


(NSU QB Jared Jacobson)

13. Wayne State Wildcats - Having personally witnessed the Wildcats look terrible against USF at the end of the last two seasons, I have a hard time seeing a great year for WSC. Certainly there are more games played each year than the ones I'm seeing in person, but it would seem the program has stumbled a bit the last few years.
Prediction: 1-10

14. Concordia Golden Bears - The Concordia defense looked pretty rough at times last year and the offense struggled as the season progressed. CSP has the same problem that WSC does, they play in the very solid South Division and wins will be hard to come by with most of the middle of the division getting better.
Prediction: 1-10

15. Minot State Beavers - With the challenges that Minot has shown so far during their NSIC stint and the coaching drama they went through in the offseason it's going to make it tough to see quick improvement with the program.
Prediction: 1-10

16. Minnesota State Crookston Golden Eagles - I'm cheering for this program to change it's culture and get on the winning track. At this moment, I just don't see it yet.
Prediction: 0-11