Mary (1-0) at Winona State (1-0)
Winona State started out their season strong in Aberdeen in Week 1, thumping NSU last Thursday night. Mary came back from 2 touchdowns in the 4th quarter, while showing a strong defense in keeping the explosive SMSU offense under 20 points and the best offensive weapon in the conference (Tyler Tonderum) under 100 yards. I think Mary will compete well in this one and could even pull the upset, but this is a REALLY long road trip for Mary and I like the home field advantage Winona will have and their offense to be diverse enough to get the W.
Winona State 31-20.

Minnesota State-Mankato (1-0) at Minnesota State-Moorhead (0-1)
Moorhead looked like the better team against UIU for most of their game, but the Dragons D left the gate open in the 4th quarter. This is seemingly what will keep Moorhead from moving into the Mineral Water Bowl contenders. The Dragons should be the Northern version of Upper Iowa, lots of explosive offense and a defense that can keep the opponent in the game.

On the other sideline the Mavs from Mankato looked very good in their 31-0 week 1 victory over SCSU. While most people are now crowning the Mavericks the team to beat this year in the conference, I'm not ready to view them that way just yet. While I thought the Mavs looked very solid on both sides of the ball on last Thursdays, I thought they lacked the explosive offense that guys like Jon Wolf and Dennis Carter provided them last year. They have a different identity this year offensively without a running quarterback like Wolf was. In my opinion it also makes them less feared offensively. Their running game is still among the best in the conference, don't get me wrong. If Ricky Lloyd can start hitting on some downfield shots it could certainly add some electricity to this attack.

The Mavs defense looked strong, but I personally thought the SCSU offense looked disheveled more than anything due to the amount of guys starting their first game. Are the Mavs the best team in the conference? They could be, but I need a much bigger sample size this year to come to that conclusion.

This game should be won in the trenches Saturday for the Mavericks as they play a much more physical style of football. I expect them to take command of the line of scrimmage early in the one and play their style of smashmouth football in this one.
MSU-Mankato 51-24.

Minnesota-Duluth (1-0) at Augustana (1-0)
This seems to be the game that's drawing the most eyes from around the conference. In the recent past UMD has pretty much blasted any team in the conference who isn't named St. Cloud or MSU-Mankato, so their underwhelming 20-13 win over a bottom half Concordia team has fans guessing about how good is this Bulldog team in 2014? Personally I attribute much of the blah performance to all the distractions this UMD team has gone through suddenly during the last 3-4 weeks from off-the-field incidents with players. Certainly CSP played the Bulldogs very tough at the point of attack, but I think if that game is played 10 times the closest outcome is the one we got last Saturday night.

Moving forward I'm expecting to see UMD more focused and driven, looking more like the Duluth we've all come to expect. This week will certainly be a challenge for them with an Augie team who looks like they are going to come off 2 straight down years. Taking a look at the talent that Augustana has at their skill positions, coupled with one of the best defenses in the conference, should translate into a winning season for the Vikings. I've said this for the past year, but I think if they can continue to balance their offensive attack by running their QB Trey Heid 10-15 times a game that he could be a real threat to opposing defenses with his good wheels.

Word is that star running back Dajon Newell for Augustana will be dinged up for this one if he can go, while UMD standout Austin Sikorski has been practicing in pads and will be ready to play but how ready for a heavy workload is unknown. If Sikorski is ready for 10-15 touches, I think that swings things heavily in favor of UMD. I'm not really expecting Sikorski to get the brunt of the carries quite so soon after his stabbing injury from Fall camp, and I think that the strong Augie defense will be able to keep this game pretty close and very competitive. It will be interesting to see if Duluth feels compelled to give Sikorski the ball more frequently down the stretch if it's a tight contest. Drew Bauer could certainly take some pressure off the Bulldogs running game by hitting on some big pass plays while Augie commits a lot of men towards slowing down the running game.

Augustana can matchup better with Duluth than most teams in the conference with their ability to play good defense and slow down the opposition. If this comes down to being a very tight game, Augustana kicker Lucus Wainman sure does give the Vikings a big time weapon once they get to the opponents side of the field.



As much as I think Augie has a chance to win this one if they are the team that I feel they are, I can't pull the trigger on it. I'm not sure Augie is ready to win a game of this magnitude just yet and the Bulldogs are accustom to taking care of business and beating middle of the conference teams like the Vikings.
UMD 27-16.

Wayne State (1-0) at St. Cloud State (0-1)
WSC got off to a great start to the 2014 campaign with a 35-13 win over Bemidji State. The Wildcats were able to get their passing game going and got solid quarterback play, which was an area that was lacking in their disappointing 2013 season. The WSC D also played fairly well and got some turnovers.

St. Cloud looked bad in week 1 at Mankato, period. The SCSU defense didn't look all that bad in my eyes, but their offense was turning over the ball and looking very out of sync compared to the dangerous attack they had last year. They went from having outstanding QB play to having poor execution and confusion. With SCSU having a solid offensive line and 2 capable running backs, the Husky offense will probably need to rely on success on the ground setting up good opportunities in the passing game for their inexperienced signal-callers.

I have SCSU getting back on track a bit given the amount of talent they have on the offensive side of the ball. I think they will be able to win the physical battle that they lost last week in Mankato. WSC looks like they might be rebounding this season, but I think a win at St. Cloud might be a little bit too much to ask in week 2.
SCSU 34-17.

Northern State (0-1) at Concordia-St. Paul (0-1)
In getting a chance to watch the NSU game 2 nights ago (Midco replay) I was expecting them to look terrible given the score at the end of the night. Instead I saw the Wolves dropping balls on big plays and not taking advantage of other such opportunities early in the ballgame. NSU looks like they have some ability but their execution was mistake-prone. The Wolves defense, well they got carved up but Winona State is going to make a lot of defenses look back this year.

CSP played Duluth fairly close last Saturday and competed well at the line of scrimmage. This physical play has to be encouraging for their fans, along with a defense that kept Duluth from putting up a lot of points on the scoreboard. Truth be told though, Duluth was missing some of their parts due to suspension and injury. I'm giving CSP credit for competing, but I'm not ready to call the Golden Bears a contender in 2014. Probably the most pleasant surprise for CSP fans was the play of wide receiver turned quarterback Cole Corey. The new quarterback was able to put up 177 yards of rushing against a top NSIC defense. He completed 12 passes, a number that will likely need to increase if they are going to keep defenses a little more honest.



Taking a look at this contest itself, I like the Golden Bears to be able to take control of the point of attack and do enough to win this one. If Northern had a stronger defense I'd have a hard time picking a winner in this one but it's just not the case.
Concordia 30-22

Sioux Falls (1-0) at Bemidji State (0-1)
BSU opened the season in pretty disappointing fashion losing by 3 touchdowns at the South divisions last place team from 2013. Jordan Hein showed signs of being a dangerous threat for BSU, but he also turned the ball over a few times as well. The BSU defense was probably expecting a little better effort than they had in Wayne, and will be looking to get back on track at home this Saturday.

USF got off to a solid start against a Minot State team who looked very green. QB Luke Papilion looked both good and bad at times during his 1 quarter of play before exiting stage left due to an ankle injury. Enter USF QB 1B Matt Young. Both players are now sophomores and Luke is viewed as the more dangerous player who can hurt the opposition with his great running ability, while Matt Young is a shorter QB who can really sling it but isn't as much the gamebreaker with his feet. Young played the part of a solid passer for the final three quarters in week 1 going 18 for 22 in relief duty. The question that seems to continue in USF camp is will Luke be healthy enough to play, as he's the clear cut #1. I'm assuming he will be 'good enough' to play (physically) and will start, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Matt Young split time with him on a quarterly basis or take over the game from Luke if the starter doesn't look fully able to be a threat with his wheels. Needless to say the situation at quarterback keeps the opposing defenses guessing all week, along with the Cougar fan base.

The USF defense looked very good at the point of attack with their new 4-3 defense, but did almost give up some huge plays in the back half. In looking at this matchup I think BSU wanting to do a lot of QB runs and not having a high flying offensive attack probably plays into the hands of the USF defense to an extent. I think the Coo will be able to contain the Beavers offense enough, while the USF offense will be able to attack the BSU defense through both run and pass. USF had trouble stretching the field and taking the top off a defense last season, but if they can have some big plays in the passing game I think they can open this one up a bit.
USF 31-17

Minnesota-Crookston (0-1) at Southwest Minnesota State (0-1)
While there was hope that Crookston could show improvement in 2014 it's hard to pull a lot of positives out of a 54-0 home defeat to a team who had a 4-7 record last season. I think Crookston will certainly look better later in the year but I don't see it against the teams from the tougher South division.

SMSU is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Mary, a game they should've won but instead their defense couldn't shut the door when they needed to most. While I don't see star running back Tyler Tonderum having the incredible season he had last year repeated in 2014, I think he has a huge day against a Crookston team who Augie was able to rack up huge yards against. Unless the weather turns bad and slows down the Mustangs offensive attack, I don't see this one being close.
SMSU 48-14.

Upper Iowa (1-0) at Minot State (0-1)
Minot State has one something pretty large going for them in this one, UIU has about the worst road trip you can find in this conference as it's about 13-14 hours by bus from Fayette to the upper half of North Dakota. This has to take something out of the Peacocks. That said, UIU looked like they might have the most explosive offensive in the league this year and in watching Minot State last week at The Bob, I really don't see the Beavers having much answer for the light blue attack.

On the other side of the ball the Beavers looked like they weren't all on the same page yet of their new playbooks, but they do have some gamebreakers in the receiving game. QB Zac Cuhna will need to be more accurate with his downfield shots when he gets the opportunities against a UIU defense that gave up plenty of big plays and yards against Moorhead. I think the Beavers show signs of life and compete here, but the UIU offense is just too much to keep up with in this one and turns it on late in this one.
Upper Iowa 48-24.


Witt's Week 1 Picks: 8-0