First off, I love the way the games are staggered this year in terms of game times. Each week we have early starts (noon or 1pm) and also night games (6pm starts). As a fan of small college football, specifically the Northern Sun, this is a great thing.


Winona State (2-0) at Minnesota-Crookston (0-2), 1pm
There are probably better games on the list this week than this one. Crookston can't get a break, tough early schedule for the Golden Eagles. While I was impressed to see how they battled last week against SMSU (tied at 20 before half), they are up against a much different beast this week. Winona State looks hungry to redeem themselves from their mediocre 2013 campaign.

WSU QB Jack Nelson is starting early in his bid for NSIC Offensive POY, averaging 410 ypg through the air with 8 scores and 0 interceptions. The Crookston defense has given up large point totals in both of their games so far against lesser offenses, so I have Winona rolling in this one.
Winona State 65-17

Minnesota State-Moorhead (0-2) at Wayne State (1-1), 1pm
Wayne State looked good in week 1, but had a rough outing in week 2. Week 3 brings a Moorhead team who's played a pretty tough schedule so far with UIU and Mankato. Even though Mankato hammered the Dragons badly last week, I feel Moorhead is a better team than the lopsided score would indicate. MSU-Mankato is going to hammer most of the teams in the conference as they are playing like a top 5 team nationally.

If Moorhead is the team that I think they are this will be a tightly contested game and the Dragons will have success offensively. That said, Wayne State will as well, as the Dragons defense has left off with how they were defending in 2013..which isn't a good thing. I'm going to step out and take the underdog Dragons in this one with their high speed offense.
MSU-Moorhead 42-38

Minot State (0-2) at Minnesota State-Mankato (2-0), 1pm
Outside of the obvious Todd Hoffner storyline here, there isn't much more to this matchup. If Hoffner was on the visiting sideline (as expected back in the Spring of this year), this game would be a pretty emotional contest and a lot of media probably would've turned out for that. Instead Hoffner is back at Mankato and the 2 months he spent at Minot seem like several blocks back in the rear-view mirror.

Minot State isn't showing a lot of signs of life and Coach Hughes seems like he's in for a long year. I think Mankato gets up early and Hoffner lets the 2's and 3's get plenty of reps in this one, as it would seemingly look worse if Hoffner put up a huge number on the team he kinda left in a tough spot with his sudden departure.
MSU-Mankato 55-7

Concordia-St. Paul (0-2) at Mary (1-1), 2:30pm
Concordia plays the #3 team in the country to a 7-point game and then loses to a bottom half of the conference team in Northern State. So..who are the Golden Bears? Looking further into the game with NSU, they out-gained the Wolves by a large margin but turned the ball over too much, and lost their starting QB Corey Cole near halftime to injury in the process. CSP has a much different offensive identity without Cole at the helm as he's a dangerous weapon on the ground while backup (2013 starter) Jared Russo is a pocket passer. If Cole can't go, I think that makes them a little easier to prepare for. Russo is the type of quarterback you respect, while Cole looks like the type of quarterback you fear.

The UMary Maruaders come off a hard fought loss with one of the best teams in the conference in Winona State. Mary played with the Warriors for much of the game and proved to me that they're one of the stronger teams in the North. I think the Mary defense will do fairly well against a CSP offense that hasn't shown to be in-step with most of the league in terms of firepower. I think CSP can keep things within striking distance, being a physical football team, but I think Mary is the better squad and CSP has a long road trip to boot.
Mary 31-14.

Augustana (1-1) at Northern State (1-1), 5pm
Northern is coming off a win, Augie a heart-breaking loss. The Vikings were up 10 with 5 minutes left in the game, at home, and weren't able to finish off a sputtering Duluth squad. While I think Coach OJ has dealt with this blow really well, I do wonder how quickly his guys will be able to erase those negative thoughts out of their heads. If they are in a close game will stinkin-thinkin from the Duluth game arise? I think if Augie can get off to a strong start in Aberdeen, those type of thoughts never happen.



Northern knows this game is pivotal for their season, as they will either move forward with a winning record or take a step back like the last few seasons. So far this year the NSU offense hasn't been as potent as they'd like, and they will need to be better than they've been against Augie. On the flip-side, the NSU defense has gotten turnovers but hasn't limited their opponents from moving the chains quite a bit.

Augie QB Trey Heid took a nice step forward in his career (only a Sophomore) with 2 touchdown passes over the top of the UMD defense last week. Augie will need Trey to get himself close to a 60% passer for them to have a strong season, as he can be erratic at times. Given how the past 2 opponents have thrown on Northern, Heid should have a successful day, along with having running backs Ham and Newell finding room to run as well. Augie seems to like to play things pretty conservatively on offense with their running game and short passes, coupled with a dose of strong Viking defense. From what I've seen so far, I don't see the Wolves having much success against the physical Augie front 7.
Augustana 27-13

Southwest Minnesota State (1-1) at Minnesota-Duluth (2-0), 6pm
In the preseason I spoke of how I thought Tyler Tonderum wouldn't have the type of season he had last year due to his entire offensive line graduating. That said, I wasn't really expecting him not to be listed in the top 10 rushers in the conference through 2 weeks. I'm not sure that's likely to change with a trip up to Duluth this weekend.

SMSU got their offense on-track last week, but truthfully Crookston tends to be a get-right team for many in this conference. Given the physical style of football that UMD plays, I just don't know how well the SMSU offensive line will do in this one. (bulletin board material for them, I realize that) I think that SMSU will have their moments offensively, but having a good day on offense seldom happens for the team on the visiting sideline at Malosky Stadium.

On the other side of the ball I'm expecting UMD to get the caravan rolling a little easier against the Mustangs than they had at the KO last Saturday. Duluth seemingly lost their offensive identity a bit last week, being forced into passing to move the chains in the 2nd half. I don't really think that's how Coach Wiese wants his offense to operate, so I'd expect a return to the ground and pound on Saturday night and success in the process.

Austin Sikorski is probably a week or few away from being 100%, but I think he will get touches this game but not a heavy workload. In this offense he seldom gets 20 carries, they spread the wealth between running backs and the quarterback as well. The Bulldogs have lacked the explosive plays on offense so far this year, I think they are due and will find some of those plays this weekend.
UMD 48-27

St. Cloud State (1-1) at Sioux Falls (2-0), 6pm
With SCSU ranked 19th in the coaches poll and USF creeping up on the top 25, it's easy to see why this is the game of the week in the conference. Considering the rank of the Huskies, this game has a big-game feel for USF. Two years ago USF knocked off SCSU 32-19 in their first game in the NSIC. I feel sure that St. Cloud Head Coach Scott Underwood is reminding his guys often of that surprising loss which led to the Huskies having a lost season.

Looking at the teams in 2014, both of them look much different across the board. No more Philip Klaphake or Carrington Hanna. Instead both teams are much more run-based squads. Pretty young as well.

St. Cloud hasn't yet hit stride offensively as expected. The running game has real threats with Walker and White but the passing game has only amassed 126 yards. Oddly, USF has more interception return yards so far this season than SCSU has passing yards. Really weird stat.

SCSU QB Nate Meyer is the main signal-caller, but the quicker Jameson Parsons has played as well and has seen some nice gains on the ground. With Meyer being the #2 QB a year ago at South Dakota State University, most had figured that he'd see greater success through the air than he has in 2014. Personally, I think it's only a matter of time before he shows success through the air as he's still working out the kinks of a new offense. At the moment though the Huskies are moving the ball on the ground primarily.

The USF defense has changed to a 4-3 scheme to try and plug the run in a league who's top teams are accustom to having success on the ground. Stylistically this would seem to be a bad matchup for SCSU as the Cougars have allowed 82 yards on 63 carries in 2014. Now certainly this wasn't against the top teams in the conference, but it's an impressive stat for any squad. USF is also 2nd in the conference in sacks, so basically the front 7 for the Coo has been getting after it. The Coo D also scored 3 touchdowns last week, so they are showing signs of a playmaking group as well.

The challenge that USF runs into is when a team can protect the quarterback and hit some shots down the field on them in single coverage. USF has already given up some long scores in the passing game and it's looking like a potential pressure point for this new defense. SCSU's ability to be able to hit some of those plays in the passing game might be needed for the Huskies to come out with a win in Sioux Falls this Saturday.

Offensively USF has been solid, but not dynamic. The Coo has really spread the wealth so far this year from possession receivers to a ground and pound attack featuring running back Nephi Garcia. Nephi is averaging 111 yards per game on the ground and has 5 scores through 2 games. His sneaky running style is likely going to be the #1 target for the St. Cloud defense, along with trying to box-in USF's running quarterback Luke Papilion. So far this year Luke hasn't looked nearly explosive as he did last year, but I do wonder if the Coo OC Dusty Hovorka is looking to turn him loose in a big game like this one.



Most people will probably take St. Cloud in this one given the success they've had in the last handful of years in the conference, but I think this USF team is a tough matchup for the Huskies and what they want to do offensively. On the other side of the ball I feel that USF will be able to have enough success running the football to secure the win at home.
USF 31-20

Bemidji State (0-2) at Upper Iowa (2-0), 6pm
After losses at Wayne State and to USF last weekend in a wild one, the Beavers now have themselves in a bit of a pickle. BSU pretty much has a must-win here in week 3 or risk the season going terribly south the way it did for them in 2013. With quarterbacks Hein and Shields splitting time right now for BSU, I'm not really sure who they will roll out there in Fayette but my guess would be Shields as he seemed to have more the scoring-touch last week. However, if BSU thinks they can have real success on the ground, it might be Hein.

The Beavers defense didn't look too bad against USF (3 scores were defensive), I don't think they are playing well enough to slow down one of the best offenses in Upper Iowa. Word seems to be circulating that all-league wideout Keaton Hosch has suffered a season ending knee injury. If so, that's a tough blow to both the Peacocks but also to Keaton himself. He's been a big part of their strong offense the last few years. That said, the Peacocks should continue to be a prolific offense as they have star-power at virtually all of their skill positions.

Upper Iowa seems to play pretty well at home and BSU is reeling a bit after 2 weeks. The UIU offense should continue marching along and the Peacock defense will keep the Beavers from making this one a fire-fight.
UIU 40-24


Witt's Picks: 15-1 (Season-to-date)