(Nephi Garcia-USF RB, photo from Argus Leader)

After 3 weeks of play in the Northern Sun there are currently 5 teams unbeaten, and 4 of them are in the South Division. The separation between the North and the South has been pronounced during the past two seasons (South 64% winners), but this season the we might see a higher winning rate by the South than in the past. Currently in 2014 we are looking at the difference being 16-8 (67%) and there is a real chance the South could go 8-0 this week. If so, the South would finish at 24-8 and a 75% clip. Since I've mentioned it here, the South certainly won't go 8-0, you can bet on that.

Last week in the conference there was a few mild upsets, with USF beating a #19 ranked St. Cloud 36-0, and MSU-Moorhead winning 40-36 at Wayne State. Moorhead was seemingly the bigger surprise to fans of the NSIC, but I had them winning the game. Moorhead should've beaten UIU in Fayette and they were able to dodge 3 end zone attempts by WSC in the last 10 seconds to secure their win last week. The Moorhead offense plays fast and can hit you with both the run and the pass, but their defense will keep the other team in games probably on a weekly basis as well. Both UIU and Moorhead remind me at times of last years Cinderella, Southwest Minnesota State.

On to this weeks games..

Minnesota-Crookston (0-3) at Concordia-St. Paul (0-3), Noon
CSP isn't as bad as their 0-3 record might suggest, but on the other hand Crookston is. Ben Bucholz has done an admirable job at the QB spot for the Golden Eagles and has potential, but the overall production from the team just isn't where it need to be to win games. While I picked them to not win a game this year, I actually think they will win a game..just not yet.

Concordia hasn't figured out how to pull one out yet, losing by 1 score to Duluth-Northern-Mary. Playing the 2 best teams in the North to 1-score losses shows that CSP can compete and isn't overwhelmed by some of the better teams in the conference. They play hard-nosed defense, but their offense just doesn't have the firepower to win them games. This week that should change. While their offense does seem more potent with a running quarterback, I think the combination of run and pass should be enough to beat Crookston.
Concordia 28-7

Mary (2-1) at Augustana (2-1), 1pm
Two teams that are making a push for post-season contenders, a Bowl Game likely. Both teams come in with a 2-1 record and they both defend the run well. The big thing working against Mary is that their starter this year (Ben Roberson) at quarterback broke his wrist in their first game and while redshirt freshman Ben Jolliffe has done a respectable job, he's also not throwing the ball a lot. Instead the Maruaders are trying to take pressure off him with a robust running game. In this game, that's not going to work very well. Augustana has been strong against the run and in the UMD game they forced the Bulldogs to change their course and go to the air. I'm expecting much of the same in this one. Mary does have some great wide-outs, but I'm not betting on the freshman to beat a good Augie defense on their own field come Saturday.

Trey Heid is starting to come on as a passer for Augustana and this makes an immense difference in their offense. They already have one of the best 1-2 tandems in the conference with Newell & Ham in the running game, so Heid's ability to hit targets over the top of the defense could make them a real handful to deal with offensively, finally. All of last year the Vikings faithful couldn't understand why they weren't a point-producing offense but now they are starting to show their potential. I'm still not convinced that Trey Heid is a clutch performer in tight games in the 4th quarter for Augie, but he's already far better than he was last year.

Initially I thought Mary might have the right stuff to beat Augie in Sioux Falls this weekend. After digging into the matchup more, I like Augustana to stand tall in this one.
Augie 30-17

Sioux Falls (3-0) at Minnesota State-Moorhead (1-2), 2pm
I said it last week when USF was looking very up for SCSU in the first half, the game next week at Moorhead has trap game written all over it. Moorhead is not as bad as the 1-2 record sounds, and they are playing at home.

Looking into this matchup, Moorhead is likely going to try and play fast against USF and get as many possessions as possible, passing a lot more than running. USF has shown that they can contain a teams running attack and force the pass. This is fine for the Dragons, they like to throw it. Adam Jiskra (below) is 5th in the conference in yards and receptions and is a real deep threat for Moorhead, while the Dragons have the #4 rusher in the league Zayne Medhaug. QB Jake Hodge might be the best dual threat signal caller in the league as well. All told, the Dragons have plenty of things for the USF D to worry about.


(Adam Jiskra-MSU Moorhead WR)

The area that I think USF will find a big advantage will be at the line of scrimmage. Mankato was able to really control and dominate their game at Moorhead and while USF hasn't quite shown that they are Mankato at this point, they should still be able to create big holes for the dangerous Nephi Garcia. USF has produced the most first downs in the conference so far this year while also having the best time of possession per game. I'd imagine the USF plan will be to ground and pound the Dragons, but mix in the pass to keep things honest. The USF passing game isn't dynamic or a big play threat so far this year, but their passing does help move the chains. Moorhead has gotten beaten plenty in the passing game so far this year so I wouldn't be shocked if USF tried going over the top a little bit this week.

Overall I have USF controlling things upfront in this one, but I do think Moorhead will make the Coo uncomfortable at times and for this game to get wild at times.
USF 45-24

Wayne State (1-2) at Minot State (0-3), 2:30pm
Wayne State has played well enough to be 2-1 at this point, but they couldn't find a way to get a late score last week. I'm expecting WSC to keep their passing game rocking (tops in the conference), while Minot State has kinda become a dumpster fire this year. The Beavers will be starting their lefty QB Crosby Jenson again and I have a feeling he will be running for his life since Minot doesn't protect the passer very well and Wayne leads the conference in sacks. Ouch. Jenson isn't a bad quarterback, but he's been thrust into a real tough spot, much like the dinged up Zac Cunha has been the past few years..but worse. With the injuries that Minot has gotten over the past few weeks, and WSC having a potent offense, I just don't see an angle to suggest this game is close.
Wayne State 38-14

Upper Iowa (3-0) at St. Cloud State (1-2), 6pm
The records would suggest a one-sided game here..but not so fast my friend. UIU has not played a top half team yet and SCSU had to play at Mankato and USF. Certainly the SCSU schedule has been easily more difficult, but the problem is that the Huskies didn't show much fight in their 2 losses, dropping those contests 31-0 and 36-0. Could St. Cloud be better than this, likely. Could they also be a middle of the pack team in reality due to their inability to throw the ball, maybe. St. Cloud and trying to identify who they are at this time is what makes this game and probably some of their other games pretty hard to call.

UIU has been the high powered offense I'd expected them to be. Players like Lucus Hefty (below) have got the passing game going strong, while Chris Smith looks like he will be the top rusher in the conference this season. The problem with Upper Iowa is that their defense is similar to Moorhead in that they allow the opposition to hang around late into games. BSU tore up the Peacocks defense and this should be a sign of concern.


(Lucus Hefty-UIU TE, photo from WCF Courier)

All this considered, I'm really torn on this game. UIU might come out throwing and get an early 14-0 lead and SCSU might not answer the bell, but on the other hand I think SCSU has more ability than their lack of experience has shown. I have a hunch that Parsons will get the nod for SCSU this week at QB and he seems more ready-made at this point in time. I think the Huskies look to attack mostly on the ground, but will need to mix up the pass as well occasionally or they will continue to lose games, period.

UIU has a few teams that just seem to have their number. SCSU seems to be one of those teams, Augie as well. Last year UIU played terribly at Augie when they had a chance to contend for a Bowl spot. Will the same type of thing happen with the bad thoughts that the Peacocks have with playing St. Cloud..? Unless Parsons has a really solid game for SCSU, I like UIU to be too much offensively for the home Huskies. Even though the UIU defense has given up plenty of points this year, I just don't see SCSU being consistant enough to match scores with the Peacocks.
Upper Iowa 38-28

Minnesota-Duluth (3-0) at Winona State (3-0), 6pm
In the event anyone was wondering, this is the game of the week. Before the year started this one of the games that I circled on the schedule as one of the contests that will shape who makes the playoffs from the Northern Sun. With St. Cloud playing sub-par so far this season, UMD's remaining schedule (after this weekend) isn't very difficult, so UMD can afford a loss this weekend far more than WSU can. One would think a 10-1 UMD squad probably still makes the postseason, but Winona still has Mankato in a few weeks and USF at the end of October, among others.

Looking at this matchup, Winona State appears to be playing better than UMD at this point in the season. UMD did show signs of getting back to their ground-n-pound offense and strong defense last week against SMSU. The poor weather surely hurt the Mustangs more than Duluth though.

So far this year WSU hasn't seen many bumps in the road. The Warriors have an offense that's shown good balance and a defense that's looked improved versus their poor performance of 2013. I don't see the Warriors holding down UMD on that side of the ball, but this UMD team just doesn't look at explosive offensively as the juggernauts of years past. I think that Winona will be able to hold their own in the trenches better than most will expect, but the x-factor might be Drew Bauer (below) and his ability to make some big throws in the passing game.


(Nate Ricci-UMD WR)

The Winona offense will have an interesting test infront of them with the strong UMD defense, but truth be told, I don't think the Bulldogs have seen an offense like the Warriors so far this year. Jack Nelson and Josh Mikes have become the best QB/WR combo in the league, but WSU has other options through the air and on the ground as well. The Duluth pass rush may disrupt that and if the Bulldogs can get to the quarterback, they win this game.

I think this game will be very back and forth and that if Winona State can get up 2 scores that UMD will have a hard time playing catchup. I have the improved WSU defense playing good enough to keep UMD from putting up a big number in this one. However, if it gets close the Winona kicking game could be a be a problem for the Warriors.
Winona State 34-27

Minnesota State-Mankato (3-0) at Bemidji State (0-3)
I don't see this game quite as lopsided as the records would suggest. BSU's offense is starting to find their way through their vastly improved passing game, but I have a feeling that the Mankato front 4 will get to the quarterback early and often. The Maverick defense is really getting after it defensively are dominating teams physically.

The Mavs offense is getting success from both quarterbacks and is having good production from both running backs. However, the Mavs leading rusher Andy Pfeiffer (RB) got himself in trouble over the weekend, getting charged with breaking into a house at 4am on Sunday morning. Given the crime itself I'm really not sure what type of future, if any, Andy has with Maverick football.

Connor Thomas is a solid hard-nosed runner who should be able to tow the load this weekend for the Mavericks, but the Mavericks might need to give some of the carries to another back or Thomas will get worn out prematurely.

In this one I see Mankato cruising on both sides of the ball en route to a big win.
MSU-Mankato 55-17.

Northern State (1-2) at Southwest Minnesota State (1-2), 6pm
Two teams that are both off to a slow start offensively, leading to a 1-2 record. The Wolves of Northern State are also struggling quite a bit on the defensive side of the ball with teams who have a potent offense. It would seem this might be exactly what the doctor ordered for the Mustangs, and they are playing at home. While both teams are 1-2 coming into this one I really see SMSU opening things up a bit in this one.
SMSU 48-24


Witt's Picks Record: 23-1