(Photos: Argus Leader and usfcougars.com)

Week Six is a very big week in the conference with the big rivalry games taking place in the league and other high profile matchups on this slate of games. MSU-Mankato and Winona State are the curtain jerkers for the week, being the feature game on CBS College Sports as the D2 Game of the Week. (programming note: the game is also being carried by Midco, if you are in an area in which they are your cable provider)

Minnesota State-Mankato (5-0) at Winona State (3-2), 7pm
At the start of the season this was one of those games that was circled as a top game in the conference. With Winona State now coming off a 2nd consecutive loss the game doesn't quite look the same.

Mankato has been dominant as we'd all assumed, but Winona State has now started to look questionable on offense. The Warriors have struggled to protect the passer and this has led their quarterback Jack Nelson to 9 for 27 and 14 for 40 performances. In watching WSU during those two weeks they seem all too interested in deep passes and have not executed dump passes and other quick passes when faced with blitzing and pressures.

With the Mavericks front 4 once again being able to provide pressure without much linebacker help, Nelson and company will need to better be prepared to use what the defense gives them and not overly reliant on the deep ball. That said, when St. Cloud torched the MSU defense in the playoffs last year the deep ball was seemingly their kryptonite. On that day the Mavericks didn't get to the quarterback like they had been, so Winona's ability to protect Nelson will be key.


(Photo: msumavericks.com)

On the other side of the ball Winona State hasn't done a bad job of defending the run this year, but 2 weeks ago UMD ran the ball down their throat for a fair amount of the game and I'm expecting Mankato to have plenty of success themselves. Connor Thomas has been the workhorse for the Mavs, but I'd expect with a strong opponent like WSU that Andy Pfeiffer will also get plenty of carries this week as well seeing as he's got a little more open field burst than the inside running of Thomas.

Wayne State was able to have a great deal of success against WSU last week and with that I'd expect MSU QB Ricky Lloyd to take his shots down field as well. The Mavs aren't trying to have a high flying passing game, but Lloyd probably has the most lively arm in the NSIC and they let him unleash a few times a game.

All the sudden Winona State has gone from a team that could beat Duluth and possibly win the South to a squad that is likely going to lose their 3rd game in a row. This game is essentially to keep their season relevant from a post-season standpoint. I think the Warriors have to get off to a quick start and hit the Mavs in the mouth right away, otherwise I think if the visitors start going 'Duluth on them..ground and pounding them that it could get Warriors down mentally and cause a very one-sided game.
MSU-Mankato 41-20

Wayne State (3-2) at Concordia-St. Paul (1-4), 1pm
A far better matchup than the records would imply. Concordia battled USF tooth and nail for the better part of 3 quarters before getting down too much to come back with their somewhat limited offense. CSP played very hard nose defense against USF and they've been one of the better defensive teams in the conference so far this season. The issue for the Golden Bears is getting scores when they need them and showing some electricity in the offense. Tre Spears runs very well behind his pads, but the passing game for the Golden Bears needs to be able to produce against the better teams in the conference.

On the other sideline we have Wayne State who stunned the league with a 27-7 win over Winona State, a game that was never close. The Wildcats DC Mike Aldrich (former Augie Head Coach) needs to get the praise for the way he continued to bring pressures en route to 8 sacks of Jack Nelson. Wayne State has also shown times this year where the passing game has looked like among the leagues best. Zach Osborn (QB) and Cole McDaniel (WR) are the top aerial duo in the conference, but Osborn has thrown 7 interceptions along the way.


(Photo: wscwildcats.com)

This one might be the hardest game for me to call this week. I like the physical style of the Golden Bears, but I like what Wayne State has been doing lately. The weather forecast shows a clear sunny day in St. Paul on Saturday, so I'm taking Wayne State with their ability to throw the ball down the field. That said don't sleep on Concordia, that might very well win this one.
Wayne State 31-30

Sioux Falls (5-0) at Augustana (3-2), 1pm
The Key to the City game between USF and Augustana renews this Saturday at Kirkeby-Over Stadium. To quickly recap, USF has won in 2012 by the score of 32-31 in Overtime, and then again 27-10 in 2013. With USF having years of championship success at the NAIA level, the interest of "who would win" between D2 Augustana and the Cougars (4 blocks to the North) was at a fever pitch come 2012. I'm not sure any future games between the schools will have the type that contest did, not to mention the game living up to the hype itself. All that said, this game is easily the best rivalry game in the conference due to both teams being from the same town and the venom built up between the sides for so many years.



Looking at the 2014 game, on paper it looks like a great battle. USF comes in unbeaten and their closest game had a deficit of 27 points. The Cougars look solid in most facets of the game, with special teams maybe lagging behind the offense and the defense.

The team on the home sideline has been very impressive themselves, playing great defense and gaining a dangerous passing game.

Both teams look like they have 2 of the better defenses in the league, both playing very physical upfront and not allowing many points from opposition. Head to head, the nod would probably go slightly the way of USF due to the amount of turnovers and scores the defense has produced. Overall USF is coming into this game +8 in turnover margin, while Augie is -2, but much of that came from their loss at UIU last week when starting QB Trey Heid was not able to play due to a shoulder injury. With Heid, the Vikings have been taking better care of the ball and more productive as an offense.

These teams are very similar to last years squads with a few differences in scheme (USF D) and this year Luke Papilion is healthy to play, while last year Carrington Hanna had just moved back to quarterback due to injuries with the young quarterbacks.

Let's take a look at the comparision between Heid and Papilion so far this year. Keeping in mind both quarterbacks struggled passing last year between completion percentage and interceptions.

Papilion = 66%, 221ypg passing, 10 passing tds, 3 ints, 45ypg rushing, 3 rushing tds
Heid = 63%, 263ypg passing, 12 passing tds, 0 ints, 16ypg rushing, 1 rushing td

Both have shown great improvement passing the football, while Heid has looked lights-out so far. Papilion runs a little more often and appears to be more of a ground threat in the red zone. Both being sophomores, these two are seemingly 2 of the future stars of the league.

Ok, enough build up. Here's the pick. I like USF's defensive line to cause trouble for Heid and force some turnovers in this one. USF has 10 interceptions through 5 games, and they are going up and making plays on the ball. The x-factor for the Vikings is Heid's ability to escape the rush as he's got very good wheels. If Heid can make plays with his feet with USF brings the heat, this can turn things in the favor of the home team. I can see the Vikings hitting a few big plays in the passing game with the Coo selling out with the front 7. However, I do expect USF to slow down the Augie running game enough to put Augie in some bad down-and-distance, forcing Heid to make throws downfield.

On the other side of the ball I think USF will certainly be challenged by the strong front 7 of the Vikings, but I think that the very elusive Nephi Garcia will get off enough good runs to keep the chains moving, and the Augie defense honest. Like with Heid and his ability to escape the rush, Luke Papilion and his ability to run will surely be something that the Vikings will be concerned about. While Papilion is a very lanky player, his speed is easily better than it appears at quick glance. Something that USF will need more than anything else with Luke will be for him to be an accurate passer. He's made great strides (like Heid) and USF will need him to play like 2014 Luke.

The Augustana front 7 will be quicker to the ball than USF is accustom to, but playing CSP last week was decent preparation for USF with their physical front. The USF wideouts have been catching the ball very well so far this year, and like Augie's wideouts, they share in the wealth.

Overall I have USF making it Coo Falls for a third straight year.
USF 34-24

Minnesota-Crookston (0-5) at Bemidji State (1-4), 1pm
Speaking of rivalry games, how could anyone forget the Hub Cap game? Why a hub cap, well both schools are on highway 2. So there ya have it. BSU leads the series 9-1, as last year the Golden Eagles pulled the rug out from under the Beavers with a 16-14 win.

Crookston has played pretty much like expected this year and has shown signs offensively to have potential for the future. BSU came through for the conference blogger and upset Mary last week on the road. The Beavers are better than their 1-4 record and they should have a big day through the air against a Crookston defense that's giving up 46 points per contest.

I have Bemidji State taking back the wheel cover in a blowout win.
Bemidji 48-17

Minnesota-Duluth (5-0) at St. Cloud State (2-3), 1pm
This is the game that was supposed to be for the North title. Well, maybe it still is. In any event, Duluth has encountered mixed results with the Huskies over the past few years and likely look at them with a different level of respect than the other teams in the North that they typically throttle.

SCSU comes into the game with a little more mojo than they had earlier in the year when they struggled with the forward pass. Let's not get this twisted though, the Huskies aren't throwing all that much or all that well..yet. For the most part the home team can get contained by slowing down their running game. That said, Duluth is giving up the fewest ypg against the run in the conference. So....that's not good for SCSU.

Duluth has started to look a lot more explosive offensively, but going against defenses like Moorhead and SMSU certainly help in that. Austin Sikorski is looking like his old self at running back and the Bulldogs are rolling on the ground as a group. Seeing the way other teams have run (and thrown) on St. Cloud, I don't like their chances of slowing down the visitors in this one.
UMD 45-24

Northern State (3-2) at Minnesota State-Moorhead (1-4), 2pm
Don't look now Wolves fans but your team is 3-2 and could find themselves a few games over .500 in short order. I didn't see this coming but kudos to Coach Dosch for getting his program headed in the right direction.

The Wolves are starting to get their passing game going with longtime quarterback Jared Jacobson and former NSU hooper Jared Hannigan (pictured below). The 6 foot 3 Hannigan has gone over 100 yards each of the last 2 weeks and scored 4 times in that stretch. Going against the Moorhead defense (worst in the league), this streak should continue.



The Dragons of MSU-Moorhead have played the toughest schedule in the conference, which has been a strong factor in their 1-4 start.
at Upper Iowa
Minnesota State Mankato
at Wayne State
USF
at Duluth

The worst opponent on there is 3-2, with the other 4 still unbeaten. WOW, that's a tough start to the year.

....and that's why I'm taking MSU Moorhead as my upset pick of the week. That's right, they were my pick in Week 3 when they surprised Wayne State. Now that the Dragons are playing the North, and with Duluth in the rearview mirror, I like them to start winning some games.

The Wolves defense hasn't been especially good this year and has struggled against better offenses. So I'm taking the Dragons in a shootout.
MSU-Moorhead 50-48

Mary (2-3) at Minot State (0-5), 6pmUpper Iowa (5-0) at Southwest Minnesota State (1-4), 6pm
Before the season started this game would've looked like a game where the losing team could score 50 points and still end up on the wrong side of the score. After seeing both teams 5 games into the year, I'm not sure SMSU has the firepower on offense or the defense to slow down the Peacocks enough to win.

Upper Iowa is riding high at 5-0, the best start in Fayette since 1964. Over the last 2 weeks the Peacocks have gotten over major haunts of the past with wins over St. Cloud and Augustana. Cole Jaescke and Chris Smith continue to be the most reliable 1-2 offensive punch in the conference, and the defense got 7 turnovers last week to secure a comeback victory. If the Peacocks were able to have a lot of success against a very good defense like Augie, I like them putting up big points in Marshall on Saturday night.


(Photo: upperiowaathletics.com)

With UIU now being 5-0 and trying to tie the 6-0 start of the 1964 squad, there is now an added pressure that the Peacocks aren't used to. UIU is accustom to being at the bottom of the conference and now suddenly they are 1 of 4 unbeatens remaining in the NSIC. Kudos to the Peacocks on the great start.

I think SMSU might be a greater threat for UIU on homecoming than the records might suggest. UIU is 5-0, but I'm not sure SMSU looks at the Peacocks in the same way they would a top ranked power like UMD or MSU-Mankato. While UIU might get up early and run away in this one, I think the Mustangs come out and defend their home field and make this game a bit of a shootout. Overally I think the Peacocks have more playmakers and are more physical upfront than the Mustangs, and that they find a way to reach 6-0.
UIU 48-38


Witt's Picks Record: 35-5