Ok D2Football Readers..if you have general questions about the D2 playoff basics, please refer to my original blog which goes into detail here.

This column will be the 2nd part in the Guide to the SR3 Playoffs.

Reminder:
These things that have nothing to do with the final 6 teams who make the dance in Super Region 3..so please stop talking about these items..
-National rankings or polls
-The actual eye-ball quality of your opponents, this system knows wins and losses only
-Margin of victory
-A good loss or great win
-The name across a team's chest
......remember, this is a numbers thing only.

Quick update on Earned Access. The GNAC is not eligible for EA due to not having enough full-fledged members. Feel free to go to their conference football page if you'd like to read more about this.

On a separate note, I've reached out to the NCAA this week in an effort to have more transparency with their numbers in the this process, but 48 hours later I haven't gotten anything back..and I've been told not to expect anything back. If we are merely using the formula and rewarding the top 6 finishers with regard to that, why not publish the rating (percentage) itself next to the team's names when publishing the RR? Just sayin..

So the first Regional Rankings came out. Considering there was 4 teams unbeaten, most of it was rather predictable, but not entirely. Teams without a loss should be ahead of any 1 loss teams given the D2 formula that's utilized. Keep in mind when looking at the rankings that we are looking at Winning Percentage and Strength of Schedule (SOS) as defined by you opponents records and their opponents records.

With that said..here we go. Please keep in mind these are my opinions, based on a lot of research. Until the final rankings come out all of these early rankings are premature. With 8 weeks into the year they do have weight behind them, but if any of the teams below have games against higher or lower record teams then the final numbers could differ from the ones seen now due to SOS.


1. MN-Duluth 8-0 (NSIC)
Duluth should be the most certain-bet in this field of 10 teams with the biggest test remaining on the schedule being a 5-3 Mary team who's played the easiest schedule so far in the NSIC. Duluth should end up 11-0 and no worse than the 3 seed, as they will likely drop from this top line due to their weak SOS the rest of the way.

2. MN-Mankato 8-0 (NSIC)
Mankato and USF are in a virtual dead-heat right now having played the exact same teams so far and both being unbeaten. Mankato is the favorite heading into this weekend's showdown with USF and if they win expect them to ascend to the top spot in the Region if not next week, in the weeks that follow due to a continually better SOS to finish the regular season.

3. Sioux Falls 8-0 (NSIC)
Like Mankato, a win this Saturday and no blemishes before the end of the year and the Cougars would be the #1 seed in the Region. The biggest question from this Saturday's game will be how far does the loser of the game fall in the RR and how would they end up by year's end since a 5-3 Wayne State and a 5-3 UIU team remain on the schedule. I wouldn't just assume that the loser remains in the top 6 next Monday, but all the other outcomes with this top 10 impact that greatly.

The SOS for both USF and Mankato is low (per the numbers) right now, but they should both get a slight late boost (or should) as the season progresses. With the rankings being current (year to date), there is a chance that the loser of the USF vs MSU-Mankato game takes a fall below the top 6 to maybe the 7th or 8th spot due to SOS. The numbers will be very close between the teams, hard to throw a number at it yet.

4. Ouachita Baptist 7-0 (GAC)
OBU has beaten Harding, but still has Henderson State left in the final week of the season. HSU was the preseason favorite in the conference and will be viewed as a healthy favorite come that last week. If so, we have a 3 way tie in the GAC Conference. Eh boy. While I haven't seen anything that says with 100% certainty what the tie breaker would be (as they would've all beaten each other), but conventional wisdom would suggest HSU gets the nod having played an 11th game (the other 2 teams have played 10), and in that 11th game they trucked FCS Nichols State.

5. Azusa Pacific 7-1 (GNAC)
This one is the head-scratcher in the group. I expect APU to be in the top 10 rankings, without a doubt. They've had a great year. However, I didn't expect them to be in the top 5 and ahead of the MIAA teams. Not due to reputation or anything of the sort. I've run my own quick numbers on SOS and I've chatted with others who've done them for years themselves, and nobody is coming up with APU ahead of the NWMSU at this very moment or in a forecasted manner by year's end. So....what's going on here? Maybe it's just due to early rankings somehow. I'd like to think it's not somehow the committee protecting a team since their squad is not able to get Earned Access and if APU makes it then the GNAC gets a team in the dance while having fallen short in recent years.

Per my numbers APU will not be able to stay in the top 6 if everything essentially goes chalk from here. Their SOS will be dropping while others will be rising. APU does not have a tough game left on the schedule and they finish against a real bad NAIA squad that wont impact their SOS in either way, as it's not a D2 contest.

6. Pittsburg State 7-1 (MIAA)
The Gorilla's have the head-to-head tie breaker against NWMSU, so I feel sure this is why they are placed a spot ahead of the Bearcats despite having played a weaker SOS year-to-date. So, I get what the committee is doing by having them in the spot ahead of NW since they will finish ahead of them if they both finish the year with 1 loss. PSU has some testers the rest of the way, but should be able to end at 10-1. the numbers indicate that the SOS for both MIAA schools will be higher than the other 1 loss teams. That said, that could slot them as high as 3 and 4 respectively when the smoke clears in a few weeks.

7. NW MO State 7-1 (MIAA)
Their story is nearly identical to Pitt State, but if the Bearcats end up tied for the 6th spot they will be the odd guy out. While the large Bearcat fanbase is fearing they will be left out of the dance, I just don't see it when looking at the numbers.

8. Humboldt State 6-1 (GNAC)
I'm not seeing much of an angle for Humboldt, but others who are looking at year end numbers say they still have a shot to finish ahead of their conference foe APU. In either event, without EA I just don't see their SOS being strong enough to finish in the top 6.

9. Harding 6-1 (GAC)
Harding looked they like were 1 week from being out of this top 10, but their upset win over Henderson State has them back in the mix. Harding should have a half decent SOS, having played both OBU and HSU already in the conference. In the coming weeks if there is a 3-way tie then all 3 GAC teams will have the same SOS and winning percentage, meaning they will have the same final ranking essentially (like seen in the MIAA).

10. Henderson State 7-1 (6-1 D2) (GAC)
Henderson took an unexpected loss last week to Harding and now finds themselves in the same spot with OBU and Harding. The key might very well be that extra game that HSU played (and won) as the tie breaker. The top GAC squad will get EA if they aren't in the top 6 spots..but I think they will barely sneak into that top 6 without the assistance of EA. The GAC that gets in the dance and the results from the OBU at HSU game will dramatically change the RR numbers at the 11th hour.


Once again..this is all rankings and forecasting. If the teams don't win the games in front of them than none of this stuff really matters. As with any statistical rankings, don't assume that your team is in until the final rankings come out after the regular season ends.