All games this week are 1pm starts with the exception of the Wayne State at Upper Iowa game, which is a 6pm start.

Concordia-St. Paul (2-6) at Southwest Minnesota State (2-6)
When I said in the preseason that the Mustangs weren't going to have a winning season, I didn't expect 2-6 at this point. SMSU has lost some close games and continues to struggle to stop the opposing offense. The CSP front 7 should be able to get after Charlie Kern a fair amount, but the Mustangs tend to find a way to get rid of the ball pretty quickly. I like SMSU to just have too much firepower for the visiting Golden Bears overall.
SMSU 38-27

Bemidji State (3-5) at St. Cloud State (3-5)
This one is anyone guess. Right when I thought both teams were starting to rise up at the end of the season, they both bad performances. BSU had shown signs of having an offense that would be hard for the other North teams to handle but that came to a screeching halt up at Duluth. Overall I like SCSU to outlast BSU, basically I'm doing little more than taking the home team in this one.

Minot State (1-7) at Minnesota State-Moorhead (1-7)
That's right..I called it here last week! I said that Beavers would put-it-on Crookston, and they hung a 50 spot on 'em. Zac Cunha (QB) and his targets (Glyn Borel, pictured below, and Leon La Deaux) have performed admirably this year in the face of a terribly lost season.



On the other sideline this weekend will be the hard luck Dragons from Moorhead. My picking the Dragons often this year has accounted for about half of my losses in this pick'em. So here we go again, as I lean towards the Dragons..what's wrong with me..?

Demetrious Carr is now quarterbacking Moorhead since Jake Hodge has been out since getting a concussion mid-game against SCSU a few weeks ago. Carr ran for over 200 yards (hello!) in leading the Dragons to 566 yards and 45 points..and a loss. The Dragons defense is giving up 54ppg. Yes, that's right. That makes the 36ppg given up by the Minot defense look...good.

That all said, I just don't think the Beavers can keep up with the Dragons in this one. Ok Moorhead, time to come through for me..I've been with ya all year!!
Moorhead 55-40

Northern State (5-3) at Mary (5-3)
These two teams have played the weakest schedules in the conference. To their credit, they have used it to get to a 5-3 record. Both have been outscored by the opposition in 2014. But they are essentially battling out for the runner up spot in the North, but Mary still has UMD on the schedule..at UMD.

QB Zach Roberson returned from injury for his first start since the opening game of the season. He promptly threw for 460 yards against Moorhead. With his return the Maruader offense has a totally different look at approach to things. With Zach out they've been running the ball mostly, passing about 20-25 times a game, playing things conservative. Roberson returns and they throw the all 45 times. Some of that could certainly be attributed to Moorhead not defending the pass very well. Overall it would seem that UMary has a lot more confidence in the aerial attack with Roberson at the controls.

So I'm gonna pick Mary right..yup..no I'm not. I've picked against the Wolves enough times this year and they are the other team that's burned me this year, badly. I'm getting on the NSU bandwagon (jinx likely) as they are seemingly beating any teams that I don't consider a top 5-6 team. Jared Jacobson has moved into 5th place in NSIC history in total yards from the quarterback position..kudos to him. He's been a good leader for them this year in a season that could end up with a Bowl Game.

My heart says Mary as I think Coach Kotelnicki is doing good things there, but I cannot pick against Northern again in a tight matchup.
NSU 40-32

Winona State (4-4) at Augustana (4-4)
Might be a matchup of the two best 4-4 teams in the country. While Moorhead has played the toughest schedule in the conference this year, these two squads have played a similar slate and haven't been able to beat the top squads in the conference but have crushed most of those below them.

Overall I see these teams as pretty evenly matched up, but they have a fairly different identity. The Warriors have lived by the big play all year and Augie has been a strong defensive team (until the last 2 weeks) with a mix of run and pass.

The last time Winona was at the KO they hung a 73 spot on the Vikings. I don't see Winona having anywhere near that type of success at Augie this time around, but I do think they will have a fair amount of success against an Viking secondary that's fairly young and not ready to stop a talent like Josh Mikes. I think RB Paul Preston will have some success on the ground as well, as he tries to continue his 100 yard game streak. He's become quite the story this year after the injury to Theo Burkett.

The Vikings have a pretty capable offense of their own with Trey Heid and their stable of running backs. I think Heid will have some success against Winona, but that the front of Winona will get after him enough to keep Heid on the run..which isn't a bad thing necessarily for the home team.

The Warriors have looked a bit shaky on the road this season, so with a very even matchup like the one we have here..I'm taking the home squad to find a way.
Augustana 38-35

Sioux Falls (8-0) at Minnesota State-Mankato (8-0)
In looking at the tale of the tape between these two squads and they are nearly identical. The Mavs are favored in more categories and turn the ball over less than the Cougars overall, but the Coo looks slightly more balanced and gets more takeaways. One possible pain-point for USF will be penalties. USF shot itself in the foot quite a bit last week with sloppy execution in the 2nd half and almost let Winona State back in the game. Sioux Falls is dead last in the league in penalties, while Mankato is in the top half of the league. This could be a key point in this game.

The Mavericks offense might be without their big-armed QB Ricky Lloyd, but the severity of his injury has not been disclosed. He started against Augie, but was gone before half, not to return. If no Lloyd, the Mavs probably get a little more predictable with their 1-B quarterback Nick Pieruccini (pictured below). Nick is a better zone-read-runner than Lloyd and ran 20 times against Augie last week, while throwing about the same amount of passes. The Mavs seemingly play things closer to the vest with Pieruccini under center.

Don't let that fool you into thinking he's not good, he is. He's the most efficient quarterback in the league, next to his teammate Lloyd. He's also played nearly half of the Mavs snaps this year in their 2 QB system, so it's not like he's not ready for this moment and a greater role in their offense. Nick is a dangerous runner who can also make plays with his arm. He doesn't unleash the deep ball like Lloyd does, but I get the impression that a lot of Mavs fans like the way the offense runs better with him back there.


(Photo: MSU Athletics)

The Mavs are likely going to look to try and run the football right over the Cougars, while also hitting a few big play attempts to their underrated gamebreaking reciever Dorian Buford. Dorian is a transfer from Missouri State who's got speed and has 11 scores, tied with Josh Mikes for best in the conference. Frankly, he should be getting more pub by myself and others than he has. Buford has caught more than half of the Mavs scores this year and is pretty much their go-to-guy. Watching Buford go against USF's star cornerback Solomon St. Pierre (pictured below) should be among the most interesting battles all day. St. Pierre now has 10 picks this year and anytime the ball goes up his way it seems like there's a buzz in the air that he might come down with it and try and head in for a score.


(Photo: Andrew Link)

When it comes to USF trying to slow down the Mavs, I think they will focus nearly all their efforts on the running game and then take their chances on the Mavs not beating them in the passing game with the matchups USF will have in the secondary. Certainly this would open some big play potential in the Mavs passing game, but I think the Cougars might feel that those attempts are high risk plays for a Mankato offense that does better running than passing. While I don't see the Cougars (or any team) stopping the Mavericks running game, I do see them creating runs for losses and putting the Mavs in some tough down-and-distances. I expect the Cougars to limit the home team better than any other team has so far this year. If Pfeiffer and Thomas start breaking off nice runs against the Coo, it could be a long day for the visitors.

On the other side of the ball there is the immediate question as to how healthy will Nephi Garcia be for the Coo or will he be able to play at all? My hunch is that Nephi will be ready to go, but I'm not sure how impactful he will be against a very good Mavs front four in any event. If he can play, his patient running style will still give the Cougars a boost and the Mavs will need to respect him as a weapon.

I'm really expecting the Mavs to move their focus to Luke Papilion (QB) who's slowly becoming the most dangerous big game quarterback in the conference. Papilion ran over and past both Augie and Winona defenders on his way to 100 yards plus in both games. Couple that with his efficient passing and the Cougars have a varied attack between run and pass.

With Papilion becoming a gamebreaking threat, the Mavs might spy him or try and not let him get off. I'm kinda expecting USF to counter with their passing game if that occurs. The USF passing game is all about short and intermediate routes, and the involvement of the tight end in the middle of the field. This short passing game can almost work like a running game as it's mostly high percentage chances. If USF can execute this it will keep the strong Mavs pass rush off Luke's back. I would expect USF to try and keep things short and underneath given that MSU has all-league safety Nate Hancock back there ready to ball-hawk if USF tries to hang a deep ball up on them.

Here's how I'm expecting the game to go. I think Mankato is able to get the better part of the physical battle upfront, but not to the point of dominance. If USF gets handled upfront this game could become a snowball game against them, seeing as the Mavs can run the ball down an opponents throat. However, I'm expecting the Coo to get theirs upfront as well and for Papilion to make enough plays through running and throwing, while the Coo defense gets a few turnovers (28 so far this year) while slowing down the Mavs running game enough to secure the win. I'm expecting USF to get a big play in the return game, but overall I've got more faith in the Mavericks kicking game than the Cougars. I've got a spirited Cougar team pulling off the upset. I've picked USF to win all 8 games so far, I'm not stopping now.
USF 27-20

Minnesota-Duluth (8-0) at Minnesota-Crookston (0-8)
This one is not gonna be close. I could just skip to the score but Duluth deserves a little more credit than they've been getting, from me as well. The defensive effort against a good passing team in BSU was quite impressive. So far this year the UMD defense hasn't looked as good as the 2013 version, but the effort against the Beavers last week was a step in the right direction for sure.

On offense the Bulldogs might've lost one of their stars for the year (tbd) when Austin Sikorski went down with a knee last week. This certainly will impact their ability to spread the wealth around offensively, as they like. This will put a little more weight on the shoulder of a guy who's really had a fantastic year, Logan Lauters (below). Lauters has quietly moved up to 2nd in the conference in rushing yards per game. In these last few weeks Lauters should get a slightly lesser workload given they should have these games in-hand by half for the most part, save the Mary game.
UMD 50-10


(Photo: UMD Athletics)

Wayne State (5-3) at Upper Iowa (5-3)
Two of the better scoring teams in the conference in what should be quite the shootout in Fayette to end a day of football in the Northern Sun. Simply put, without Chris Smith being certain to play I have a hard time picking the Peacocks in this one. Wayne State knows how to get after the quarterback and their offense has the best aerial attack in the league. It just smells like bad news for the home team.
Wayne State 55-30


Witt's Picks: 51-13 (Year to Date)