Ok....you might want to print this out or read a little at a time cuz this is long and probably boring to some.


Anyway....slight refresher to start things off in our final Guide.

(if you want all the basics, please go here)

Regional Ranking is determined by a teams winning percentage, strength of schedule, and opposition's strength of schedule. The formula is shown below..

(D2 winning percentage plus SOS) divided by 2

SOS = (OWP + OWP + OOWP) / 3

That said, in talking with several people who've been around D2 Football for a long time and those that I hold as trusted sources....I'm getting the impression that the selection committee will focus the most on SOS and then give consideration to the amount of games played as a secondary measure. I've gotten mixed opinions on this, but more people I've spoken to have leaned towards SOS being the main story.


Monday 11/10/2014:
So the SR3 rankings came out and here is what everyone who was hitting F5 through Monday afternoon finally saw on their screen..

1. Mankato
2. OBU
3. UMD
4. Pitt State
5. NWMSU
6. Harding
7. USF
8. Azusa
9. Henderson State
10. Central Oklahoma

....and the USF supporters reaction.


From a NSIC point of view, USF seems like they should've been in the top 6 after the loss to MSU-Mankato, but 2 weeks in a row the Coo has found themselves behind APU and now Harding. Both surprises.

After looking at the math this week, it actually makes sense....if the moving target has come back to just the numbers and not other factors. If so, Harding has a SOS of .512 at the moment (higher number the better) and USF is a .500.

Now this is going to get kinda technical, and this thing has more layers than an onion..but here goes..

The MIAA teams will have a .500 SOS without a doubt, as those teams play a conference-only schedule and they all play each other. Pitt State heads to Central Oklahoma, an 8-2 squad. Massey Computer Rankings has Pitt winning this game fairly easily, 30-14. NWMSU plays Washburn (4-6) at Arrowhead Stadium. Massey has that as a 41-10 game for the Bearcats.

Pitt State is far more likely to be tested than NW will be. If both win, both should be safe. The only thing NW has to worry about is if the SOS for the other teams in the region starts to get over that .500 mark. It's not likely that a bunch of teams will exceed .500 for an SOS, but it can't entirely be ignored. If Pitt State were to find a way to lose in the final week of the season 2 years in a row, they would be out of the conversation entirely as 2 losses moves 'em away from the final table. If that did occur, things would open up quickly for USF and possibly another GAC team, depending on how those games play out. Don't expect a loss in the MIAA, Pitt and NW are both strong teams and should win out if they are who I think they are.

So far this SR3 1-6 has been difficult to get right for even the smartest D2 fans, as it looks like there has been a moving target to a degree. This is most seen in the MIAA. Pitt State is listed 4th right now, but their SOS is clearly lower than USF's or Harding, but I don't think the committee wanted to keep moving Pitt around, knowing they would finish 3rd or 4th when the smoke cleared. Truth be told, the Pitt SOS puts them in 8th right at the moment but after beating an 8-2 team it will put them where they are currently ranked. Essentially what I'm saying is that the committee has forecast Pitt into the 4th spot, also knowing NW cannot go ahead of them since Pitt has the tie-breaker. I get why they did it, but it's also misleading and inconsistent with the rest of the rankings and placements.

The GAC teams will have a .500 SOS also, but they have 1 out of conference game total. Southern Nazarene (0-10) hosts SW Baptist (2-7). I know, seems like a real slobberknocker huh. Oddly, this seemingly blah game will greatly impact the SOS of the GAC teams, as it's the only OOC game in their conference. If SNU wins, each team in the conference will go over the .500 SOS to about the .508 mark. If SNU loses, which is kinda expected, the teams in the GAC will have a SOS under .500, likely around .499. For the record, Massey Computer Rankings has SWB winning the game 38-33. If SNU wins and the GAC teams go up to a .508 SOS number, this could cause all kinds of problems for the MIAA and the NSIC. In theory, there could be 3 GAC teams in the dance then and possibly USF and NW sitting at home. I'm not sure the committee would just put all 3 in based on the SNU outcome, but I'm putting it out there as an outside possibility.

Harding is currently in the 6 spot, but that might be at risk a little bit. They play Arkansas Tech (3-6) and Massey has that game at 34-0 Harding. Ouch. So, that's good for the Bison right....well the problem is that their SOS will drop due to their opponent. (back down to .500)

This week OBU will travel (across the street) to play Henderson State. This is a huge rivalry game, "The Battle of the Ravine". There will be about 10,000 to 12,000 fans there in attendance as these rivals. Yes, OBU literally changes in their own locker room and walks across the street. This game is like Augie vs USF on steroids. Just sayin.


(OBU and HSU)

So anywho, this 3pm start has Henderson State is a pretty solid favorite when looking at the resume and results for both teams this year..even though they are the team with a loss. Massey suggests HSU to win 35-26. If OBU were to win, they are the 2 seed at the very least. Their big win over HSU would put them nearly equal by the numbers to Mankato, but with 1 more quality win (over a RR opponent) than the Mavs. If they win there is an outside chance they could be the #1 in the region. I'm guessing 2 though.

I see HSU prevailing this game though, as I think their star Senior QB Kevin Rodgers is going to find a way for them to win this huge game. If HSU wins we have a 3 way tie with Harding in the mix as well. In that 3 way tie each team has beaten the other. I see HSU qualifying since they beat FCS Nichols State at the start of the year, a game that doesn't count towards their numbers as a D2 opponent, but in a tie with all other things equal I think this gives them the nod. If so, Harding and OBU are then battling with USF for the final spot. I think OBU wins a head to head tie-breaker if put up against Harding, with all of them having the identical SOS.

The NSIC teams play an all-conference schedule, but all the teams don't play each other. Teams like Augie and Winona State have played a tougher schedule (by luck of the draw) than a team like USF or Mankato. UMD, being in the North, plays to a lower SOS yet. Here is what you need to know about this type of scheduling for Week 11. USF has defeated St. Cloud, Minot State, Moorhead, and Bemidji State..when they played their 4 teams from the North to start the year. The 4 teams that play those squads are Northern, Duluth, Mary, and Crookston. So this week these 4 games will greatly impact the SOS of USF, and Mankato, for that matter as the Mavs and Coo played an identical schedule.

(the numbers to the side indicate who Massey Computer Rankings feels will win the game and the score)
Duluth at Minot (UMD 41-10)
Northern at BSU (Northern 32-27)
Mary at St. Cloud (SCSU 34-24)
Crookston at Moorhead (Moorhead 49-24)

USF needs at least 2 of their direct opponents (the home teams listed above) to win and USF will then come in with a .499 to .500 SOS (depending on rounding). This is with the assumption that USF beats Wayne State..and the Wildcats are no slouch, so USF has to take care of business first. (same with the Mavs against Upper Iowa) If only 1 of their North-teams win, USF might be in trouble. If 3 of their North-teams wins, USF is likely going to be a good spot. Their numbers would either go above or below that .500 mark based on the outcome of those North games. Once again, sounds crazy..I know.

Duluth and Mankato are fairly safe in my opinion, playing Minot and UIU respectively. Teams they've completely owned in a big way. There was some speculation that Duluth might drop below a team like Pitt or NW due to SOS. Certainly their SOS is lower, but they haven't lost. I just don't see that.

The GNAC still has APU and Humboldt officially in-play, but with APU playing a no-count game against NAIA Menlo and Humboldt State now with 2 losses, I just don't see an angle that either makes the final 6 unless a lot of upsets occur. It's certainly possible, but in the last 3 weeks only 1 team has dropped out of the top 10 (Humboldt), so these upsets are occuring at a snails pace.


On to the Prediction..
First off....if any of the teams that are mentioned here as favorites were to lose, they will be out of the playoffs with maybe the exception of Mankato. So what I'm saying is....if you don't win the game in front of you this week you run a strong risk of not being in the dance.

Certainly the committee could go with 2 teams from each of the 3 conferences outlined in detail here, but I'm going to trust that the committee will have integrity in this process and go with the 6 most deserving squads.

So....we are at the end of the line folks. The NCAA will announce the 6 teams that make the playoffs from SR3 at 5pm Sunday. If I were a betting man, and I'm not, here is what I see occuring..

Southern Nazarene loses.
USF/Mankato get 2 wins from their North teams.
Pitt State and the other favorites win.
....and Henderson State beats OBU, maybe even going away.

If the numbers are close one thing to keep in mind is that the MIAA and NSIC have played 11 game schedules and thusly would have a higher winning % than the GAC teams (the FCS game doesn't count here). If the SOS numbers are really close, this is where I feel the extra win will kick in.

Based on my rough look at the numbers and the way they might turn out....I got this by the smallest of margins..

1. Mankato
2. Duluth
3. Pitt State
4. NWMSU
5. USF
6. Henderson State