NWMSU (10-1) at UMD (11-0)
Two of the best programs in D2 locking horns yet again. While I don't feel either one of these teams is as strong as they have been during their better playoff runs, they might still be good enough to get through the Region.

In taking a hard look at this game the first thing that pops up is that this might not be a great matchup for Duluth. NW can shut down the run and the Bulldogs found this out last year when the Bearcats pretty much had their way down in Maryville.

Who is UMD this year? They are a team who can pound the rock (per always) and they also have added in a better passing game than they've had in the last few years. Drew Bauer is a talented signal-caller who is a runner first but he is a solid pocket passer when called upon to play that role. In the Augie game earlier in the year the Bulldogs were down 10 with 5 minutes to play and couldn't see to get the running game going. The burden of success was put on the shoulders of Bauer and his wideouts and they really came through. They raked the Vikings with drag and intermediate routes, marching down the field a few times to tie the game before the end of regulation.

This passing element is the x-factor for this football game. If UMD can have over 200 yards passing against NW, that puts them in a spot to keep the Bearcats defense guessing. With preseason NSIC North POY Austin Sikorski done for the year with a knee injury, the Bulldogs offense won't quite have the variety of weaponry that they'd like heading into the postseason. They will utilize some of their flankers to assist with the running game, but much of the weight will still come back on Drew Bauer to make plays in the running game as well. I think the home team will call his number often on Saturday.

The challenge is for Duluth is that NW will make the Bulldogs beat them through the air. The Bearcats are not going to respect the passing game of UMD and will look to stuff the run. I can't blame NW for this approach as the running game is the identity of UMD.

On the other side of the ball NW runs a balanced attack that will utilize the zone read running game with their similarly skilled QB Brady Bolles. NW will have some struggles running the ball against a very solid Duluth front 7 and might look to try and open things up a bit against a suspect UMD secondary who's gotten torched over the top plenty of times this season by the better teams they faced. Personally I feel this is the Achilles heel of this 2014 Duluth team and that the Bearcats will look to expose them. That said, Duluth has gotten good pressure on the quarterback but it will likely take blitzing and extra resources.

This is a risk-reward proposition for the UMD....because if they don't get to the quarterback there will likely be trouble in the back half for them. The good thing for Duluth is that this NW team isn't as explosive in passing game as the squad they faced last year.

In the overall scheme of things I think both teams will be challenged trying to run the football. If either can run it, that team will likely win the game. Neither is especially good at passing the ball this season by NW is definitely better at that aspect of the game.

At first glance the thought is that NW will roll..but one has to remember this isn't the elite-dominant squad that UMD faced last year. However, it's still a very good NW team and one that looks more solid and complete across all facets of the game. While I will be cheering for UMD as a NSIC supporter, I think they have an uphill battle with a team that's stylistically a very tough matchup for them.

NW 38-24.


Harding (9-1) at Pitt State (10-1)
While this isn't a NSIC, I will still offer some thoughts on this contest.

Harding comes into this game with the 2nd best rushing attack in D2, moving the ball on the ground for an average of 386 ypg. This is a very physical football team on both sides of the ball that is looking to run their triple-option and be opportunistic in the passing game.

Pitt State is a very fast and athletic team who can throw the ball very well, but also has the top defense in D2 football. The Pitt secondary is among the best in the country and I'm expecting that they will look to play man coverage against HU and commit a lot of resources towards stopping the run. Since Pitt sees a similar option attack when playing Missouri Southern in the MIAA, the Gorillas should be better prepared than most teams come a short week of playoff preparation.

I'd like to see the underdog Hardin Bison step up and beat Pitt in this spot as I like the style of play that I've seen from Harding. However, I don't expect Harding to be able to win the LOS and with that I'm expecting open space to run for the HU backs to be occasional at best. Hardin has some very explosive athletes that could turn this game upside-down if they make the plays, but I think this Pitt State team is simply too much in the passing game and too quick to the ball on defense.

Pitt State 45-20