Only in D2 Football will you find #1 hosting #5 in the 2nd Round of the playoffs, but it's unfortunately all part of the regional system used and the power-bracking that occurs as a result. It's really too bad this matchup occurs so early in the postseason seeing as both teams are viewed as maybe the top team in the country. This matchup pits the best team in the NSIC against the best team in the MIAA in what promises to be a heavyweight battle with the winner as the favorite to win the region, and the D2 title.


Six Players to Watch:

Pitt State
QB - Anthony Abenoja (#12) - 302 passing ypg, 30 tds, 7 int, 158 qb rating, 8 ypg rushing
WR - Marquise Cushon (#9) - 1,238 yards rec, 64 catches, 8 tds
WR - Gavin Lutman (#18) - 1,068 yards rec, 63 catches, 11 tds
DE - Heath Wilson (#55) - 6 sacks, led teams in tackles for loss
LB - Spencer Brown (#36) - 90 tackles (led team)
DB - De'Vante Bausby (#14) - 3 int, led team in passes defended

Mankato
QB - Nick Pieruccini (#6) - 182 passing ypg (as a starter), 12 tds, 4 int, 169 qb rating, 95 ypg rushing
RB - Connor Thomas (#5) - 1,010 yards rushing, 11 tds
WR - Dorian Buford (#15) - 707 yards rec, 44 catches, 13 tds
DE- Josh Gordon (#95) - 16.5 sacks, led team in tackles for loss, 2nd on team in tackles
LB - Tyler Henderson (#33) - 90 tackles (led team)
S - Nathan Hancock (#4) - 4 int, 3rd in team in tackles


Quick Look at the Numbers

Gorillas
Offense: 37 ppg, 468 ypg (312 pass, 157 run)
Defense: 15 ppg, 274 ypg (150 pass, 124 rush)

Mavericks
Offense: 44 ppg, 460 ypg (197 pass, 264 run)
Defense: 12 ppg, 293 ypg (187 pass, 106 rush)


Breakdown

The visiting Gorillas are a team that is pass first, run second. QB Anthony Abenoja has put together a fantastic year and has targets that will can certainly hurt the Mavs defense both with short possession routes and down the field. Gavin Lutman (6-4, 213lbs) is a long target that will be a matchup problem for the home team just due to his szie, while his fellow wideout Marquise Cushon (5-10, 162lbs) has the burst to run past defenders and create huge plays. For any Maverick fan these two have to be the biggest concern they have. The Gorilla's running game took a serious blow earlier in the year when Jeff Seybold (1400 yards, 22 tds) was lost for the season to injury. Since then the PSU running game don't have a ball-carrier over 500 yards and have not been a serious concern for the opposition.



How does Mankato slow down the Pitt State passing game? With a great push by their front 4, collapsing the pocket. The MSU front is 300lbs each at the tackles, and has Josh Gordon (6-2, 250lbs) has linebacker speed from the defensive end position. Gordon is in the conversation for best d-lineman in the country and was a menace this year for opposing offensive coordinators. Gordon will be facing 6-6 330lb SR Vincent Brown, a much larger player than the fast defender. This could very well be the most important matchup on the football field. If Brown doesn't have quick feet on Saturday, his quarterback will have a very long day. In the Mavs biggest game of the year Gordon got to quarterback 4 times when the Mavs beat USF 27-13. USF doesn't have a bad O-Line by any means, but the Mavs pretty much shut down the good Cougar running game and collapsed the pocket often.



The single most important thing for PSU to make sure of Saturday is to protect the quarterback. Two teams that were able to do that against the Mavs over the past few years were St. Cloud State (2013) and Valdosta State (2012) and they were able to have success against the Mavs in the back half of their defense. In watching the USF vs Mankato game close-up I was able to see plenty of times that the USF wideouts were running open in the secondary, but the quarterback was hurried or swarmed at the line of scrimmage and big plays ended up not happening. If the Mavs don't collapse the pocket and the Gorillas are allowed to operate their passing game, I don't see how the home team wins this contest.

One key that might be working in the Mavericks favor is that new DC Jake Dickert wasn't part of either of those defensive collapses in the past but has the Mavs playing at a very high level this year. Coach Dickert was the Augustana DC in 2013 and the Vikings had a very strong defense in Sioux Falls as well.

On the other side of the ball the Mavericks have a battering ram of a running game that shares the ball between three players. Connor Thomas (5-11, 205lbs) is the primary ball-carrier for Mankato and he runs really hard (long hair flying all over) but resembles a 3/4 size fullback. If the DB's from Pitt State come up thinking they are going to get the best of him they will likely get dumptrucked. Thomas doesn't typically look like a breakaway runner, but more like the guy who can cut back and get 8-10 yards fairly easily.

The other runners are QB Nick Pieruccini (6-1, 210lbs) and Andy Pfeiffer (6-1, 210). Pfieffer is in an running back about 30% of the time and doesn't run with the power game that Thomas does, but instead he's more of a gazelle who can get down the field in just a few strides. Pieruccini has taken over the role of starter with the injury to then-starter Ricky Lloyd, but up until that point they had been splitting the games almost 50/50. Pieruccini's ability to run has seemingly been a better fit at the QB spot than the pocket passer Lloyd this season for the Mavs. While Lloyd is now healthy, I'm expecting to see Pieruccini getting the snaps at QB and for him to be running the ball fairly often, just like he's been doing for the last month of the season. While Pieruccini isn't the runner that either running back is, he's slippery enough that he gets yards and moves the chains. On 3rd downs the Mavs seem to like to call his number in the zone-read game.

While the Mavs running game is their bread and butter, they can air the ball out down the field if they choose to mix things up. Dorian Buford (6-1, 190) is their main threat and he's got the speed to stretch the field and is clearly the big play guy in this offense. The Missouri State transfer has only caught 44 balls this season, but 13 of them went for scores.

The key to making things go for the Mavs on offense is their offensive line, or as I call them, the roadgraters. The group upfront averages 297lbs across and they are a very experienced group that finds their targets. This group can move the point of attack down the field and gives their runners room to operate. Many in the NSIC thought that the OL of Mankato was the Offensive MVP of the league. That says something about them.

Looking at the front for Pitt State, they average about 265lbs across. At this size I feel that the Mavs OL will have the ability to move them off the ball when running straight at the Gorillas.



So how do the Gorillas slow down the mighty Mavs running game? Well..Pitt State has a pretty strong defense of it's own. They were able to hold NWMSU to 17 points, and those were pretty much when the game was out of reach. The PSU defense often plays a version of a nickel defense, and has defensive backs that can fly to the football in both the running game and the pass. If PSU can keep the Mavs from moving the chains often in this one they can pull off the upset. When it's #5 against #1, I'm not sure it's really much of an upset.

Coming into last week the blogger who writes this column called the Gorillas the best defense in D2. After seeing Harding blow holes in the Pitt State defense in both the running game and then later in the passing game, I'm backing off my previous assessment. While I think that PSU took a while to adjust to Harding's triple option running game, and did shut them down when the outcome was still in question, I would still be worried if a I was a Pitt State supporter with how many long touchdowns they did allow.

I'm not expecting for the Pitt defense to allow Mankato those type of long touchdowns, partly because the Mavs don't have the type of breakaway athletes (RB,WR) that Harding had running down the field last weekend. Westbrook and Lockett for Harding are really dynamic D2 athletes and impressed many with their abilities. However, the Mavs are more the slow and steady team and are perfectly fine getting chunks in the running game and then occasionally making explosive plays in the passing game.

What I'm expecting to see from Pitt is a lot of defenders closer to the point of attack, and possibly taking chances that the Mavs won't be able to beat them down the field with their passing game. PSU only gives up 150 ypg in the passing game, a very impressive number.

When looking at the special teams, Pitt State has a clear advantage. Their kicker was more accurate this year and they look to be more explosive in the return game. I'm not expecting the punting to be much different between the teams, but it will be interesting to see if the wind picks up at the Blake if there are some struggles in the kicking game.


The Prediction..

I think that Pitt State is a very dangerous opponent for the Mavs. They are a battle tested squad that's done very well on the road and has both a strong defense and a powerful passing offense. I'm expecting that PSU will have some big plays in the passing game on Saturday, but get little from their running game.

After seeing the the way Harding and Central Missouri (good running team) were able to get big yards on the ground against the Gorillas, I have a hard time taking them against a team who can pound the ball continually like the Mavericks. I like Mankato to play a cleaner game, take less risky chances, and win the line of scrimmage.

MSU-Mankato 34-24