Signal Callers for the AgesNSIC Preview 2016

Tiers 1-4
After looking at rosters and player movement during the last year, along with talking to all 16 coaching staff's in the last week, I've come to the conclusion that the Northern Sun can be divided into 4 Tiers.

Tier 1: Teams contending for the overall league championship
Tier 2: Squads with an outside shot and making the playoffs or a Mineral Water Bowl berth.
Tier 3: Schools that'll battle to have a .500 season
Tier 4: Those trying to change the culture of their program but will likely have a year of struggle in the process.

My review of teams is more in-depth in the upper tiers and more abbreviated as we get down the list.


Tier 1

Minnesota-DuluthAugustana Minnesota State-MankatoSioux FallsTier 2

Bemidji StateSouthwest Minnesota StateNorthern State
2015 Record: 6-5
Returning Starters: 10/8 (Offense/Defense)

Last year Northern broke in a freshman quarterback and played things close to the vest offensively, while transforming into one of the top defenses in the Northern Sun. A year later the Wolves are looking to become a little more explosive offensively, but will continue to allow their physical brand of defense to keep them in every ballgame.

The NSU offense returns 10 from a group that was in the middle of the pack a season ago. Simply put, the Wolves will need more out of the quarterback position. The signal-caller battle is once again between Kyle Lavand (SO) and Christian McAlvain (SR). Both players can run with the football, with McAlvain having a slightly stronger arm and Lavand playing with more poise.

The running game will return the very steady Nicholas Truen (JR) and Chaka Kelly (SO). The passing game will bring back wideout Zach Barber (JR) and tight end Connor Doherty (SR). Doherty is the best tight end in the league and offers his quarterbacks a nice 6-3, 250lb target with good hands in the middle of the field. The offensive line is basically intact from last season.

The NSU defense is back for the most part and paced by defensive lineman Chad Stoterau (SR) and ball-hawking defensive back Channing Barber (SR). Barber picked off 5 balls last season and has become a playmaker for the Wolves in the back half of the defense.

Overall I think Northern will be similar to last year, a team that will make an ugly game of it for the top teams in the league while beating the teams they should otherwise. Until the Wolves can become a little more explosive offensively I think they will stay as a very respectable Tier 2 squad that'll battle with both UMD and Bemidji State for the North title, as they did when they all shared that title in 2015.

Prediction: 7-4


St. Cloud StateUpper IowaTier 3

Winona State
2015 Record: 5-6
Returning Starters: 9/6 (Offense/Defense)

The last 2 years I've picked the Warriors to go 9-2 (2014) and 7-4 (2015), and they've responded by going 4-7 and 5-6. So, apparently I'm a bit confused on Winona. Are the Warriors the team that won at Mankato and had Augie beat, or the one that got blown up by Moorhead and dropped home games to UIU and SCSU?

Like last season, WSU returns 9 players on offense and 6 on defense. The Warriors do have notable departures with standout pass-catchers Josh Mikes and Alan May graduated, and leading tackler Collin Corcoran gone as well.

The Warriors have the gunslinger of the Northern Sun, QB Jack Nelson (SR). Jack has given WSU a fighting chance his entire career due to his ability to light up the sky with large passing totals and scores. Nelson will return 6-3, 227lb wideout Cameron Johnson (SR) who's shown to be a playmaker, along with the running back combo of Paul Preston (SR) and Eric Birth (SO). While being only 5 foot 4 inches, Preston's low-to-the-ground quickness and balance makes him hard to corral for opposing tacklers. Preston quietly led the NSIC in all-purpose yards, averaging 160ypg. Birth came on late and is a bigger back with speed, a player that could have a large upside in this league.

One of the biggest assets to this Winona State team is place kicker Carter McCauley (JR). He made a league-best 18 field goals last year out of 22 attempts.

Defensively is where the Warriors have gone wrong during the past few seasons. In 2015 WSU gave up 28ppg and were near the bottom of the league in run defense (12th). Winona should be strong in the secondary, returning 3 starters, but they will again be looking to replenish the front 7.

On paper I just don't see this Winona team being better than the one with Mikes-May-Corcoran. With the South as tough as it is, I'm no longer picking WSU for the 9-2 and 7-4 seasons of the past. I have the Warriors struggling to hit .500 again this year.

Prediction: 4-7


Wayne State
2015 Record: 4-7
Returning Starters: 7/6 (Offense/Defense)

The Wildcats return star signal-caller Zach Osborn (JR), a player who threw for 3,300 and 25 scores in 2014, before being lost last year due to injury. During WSC's 2015 campaign they went through 3 different quarterbacks and struggled for a good portion of the year trying to find an offensive identity. With Osborn healthy, things will be much better for this offense.

The skill positions have some playmakers for Osborn, returning potential star Marcel Dunson (JR) at wideout along with the double barrel running game of Alex Kline (JR) and Rashad Trimble (JR). Trimble has been gone for a few years due to injury. Wayne returns its tackles, but will be replacing the 3 interior spots of the offensive line.


(Pictured - Zach Osborn. Photo: Sioux City Journal)

The defensive side of the football is where things went bad for the Wildcats in 2015. They allowed 37ppg, good for 3rd worst in the conference. WSC returns 3 starters in the secondary and should be very athletic, but will need to firm things up with the front 7 this fall.

Wayne State should be a better football team than in '15, but I'm not sure if they will be good enough to beat their peers like UIU, Winona State, and SMSU. That said, I think the Wildcats could be as strong as 6 wins if things go their way now that Osborn is back at the helm, but more realistically I like them for 4 victories in '16 as I'm not convinced their defense is going to get them out of the fire.

Prediction: 4-7


Minnesota State-Moorhead
2015 Record: 6-5
Returning Starters: 7/7 (Offense/Defense)

Many will probably be surprised to see Moorhead in Tier 4. I was driving the bandwagon a year ago as I picked the Dragons to have a winning season. However, with key losses to star players on the offensive side, paired with very young line, I see the MSU-M taking a step back offensively. The Dragons bring back more defensively this season than on offense. Considering how they've struggled to get off the field in past years it's never really been looked at a strength for the program.

Yes they do return the Hodge/Carr combination, but I'm not sure the very capable playmakers at the quarterback will have enough weaponry to make it to a 2nd straight .500 season. I have the Dragons struggling in their first 4 games of the year (Wayne, USF, UIU, and MSU), and if they start 0-4 then a .500 season seems very doubtful.

Prediction: 3-8


Tier 4

Concordia St-PaulMary
2015 Record: 1-10
Returning Starters: 7/6 (Offense/Defense)

Head Coach Josh Kotelnicki enters his 3rd season with the Marauders. It's been an interesting 3 year window, as Mary has gone from being a 5 win team (6 wins in 2013) to a 1 win squad last year that looked very young, to a squad that will now change their offensive attack to a triple option attack. In asking Coach Kotelnicki what hatched this change, he went into a long explanation that actually made some sense and is a fairly unique approach. Kotelnicki spoke to how they felt in their geographic footprint (for recruiting) that they would struggle often times to get some of the better athletes with UND, NDSU, UMD, and others, but that the option quarterback and other players more unique to that type of offense are often going under-recruited. That said, the Marauders now have 9 (yes, that's right) quarterbacks on their roster right now. While Coach wasn't looking to commit to who was winning the battle, you can bet whoever it is they will be new at leading this new type of offense for Mary. The harsh winds and bad winters in the Northern Sun were also cited as additional reasons for the switch in offensive approach.

As for the offense itself, Kotelnicki wasn't looking to detail specifically the style of triple option they were looking to play. With the flexbone being the a high profile style of the triple option these days in college football (Georgia Tech, Air Force), and the SB (Slot-Back) position listed on their roster page, one could speculate that might be the direction they will go. This offense offers the traditional option but also has 2 slot players that can be used in the running game or as receivers, offering a 4 wideout set. Expect runners Zach Podell (SR) and Zach Graves (SR) to make plays in this new offense.

The Mary defense will not be making a change of scheme, but will need to improve on their 36ppg allowed a season ago and 223ypg on the ground. Linebacker Landon Smith (SR) will be the defensive leader for the Marauders.

While it will be fascinating to see how Mary does with this new offensive approach, it'll likely take a year for the squad to adjust to this new scheme. The team is once again young this year, but will have a chance to grow together. With only 20 upperclassmen on this football team, it'll be interesting to see how Mary looks after a few years of running the triple option. For now, I still have them as rebuilding.

Prediction: 1-10


Minnesota State-Crookston
2015 Record: 1-10
Returning Starters: 7/6 (Offense/Defense)

I keep waiting for this team to get on a roll and get to 3-4 wins, but it hasn't happened yet. UMC lost last year's signal caller Tre Hearns as he's transferred to River Falls, but Nathan Cole (SO) should open the year at quarterback and he played a good amount of football for the Golden Eagles last Fall. Crookston has weapons offensively in running back Dre Person (SR) and bouncy wideout Andrew Connette (SO). That said, I'm expecting the Golden Eagles to put up points this season.


(Pictured - Andrew Connette. Photo: Crookston Times)

However, the problem is their defense. It was dead last in the conference in 2015, allowing an eye-popping 49ppg. Crookston struggled at the point of attack defensively, allowing an average of 298ypg in the rushing game.

UMC has been looked at as the bottom team in the NSIC for years and as much as I'd like to see them do better, I'm not sure I see it just yet. That said, I wouldn't be shocked if they won 3 games this year due to the offense being the best in Tier 4, however the defense will likely hold them back.

Prediction: 1-10


Minot State
2015 Record: 1-10
Returning Starters: 8/7 (Offense/Defense)

In the 4 years the Beavers have been in the Northern Sun the win totals have been 3, 2, 1, and 1. Unfortunately the 3 win campaign was in 2012. In defense of Minot State, the Beavers were without maybe their top football player, QB Zac Cunha (SR), for 2015. Cunha is a capable passer who's tried to make the best of what's been a bad offense. Funny thing is, Cunha was starting games at quarterback for the Beavers back in 2012 when they reached the 3 win plateau.

Running back Jarvis Mustipher has been a solid ball-carrier for MSU and should help take some of the load off the signal-caller's shoulders. Last season the Beavers were 15th in the league at running the football and 16th at throwing it.

On the defensive side of the ball Minot does return 7 from a group that was better than most in Tier 4, at 33ppg.

The Beavers are under the 3rd year of leadership of Tyler Hughes. Hughes came in during the late Spring of 2014 and is still looking to forge an identity with the football program. MSU could be better than the 1 win that I'm picking them for, but I'm just not sure how many more.

Prediction 1-10


(Cover images from St. Cloud Times, Argus Leader, Winona Daily News, USF Athletics)