(Pictured: Isley Carrington-SMSU, CSU Golden Bears, Carter McCauley-WSU, Michael Mehling-USF)
(Photos: SMSU Athletics, CSU Athletics, WSU Athletics, Argus Leader)

Games for Saturday, October 8

Augustana (3-2) at Wayne State (2-3), 1pmst quarter and he could be out a few weeks with concussion symptoms. The Vikings did get back receiver Charlie Hayes, and he went for 99 yards on 8 grabs with a score in his return to the lineup. The Vikings still have plenty of firepower to win games without Matt Heller and with another loss sinking their chances to make the postseason, I expect AU to rebound at Wayne America.
Vikings 45-27

Northern State (3-2) at Bemidji State (4-1), 1pmMary (0-5) at St. Cloud State (2-3), 1pmstMinnesota-Duluth (4-1) at Minot State (1-4), 1pmndnd half.
UMD 38-20

Concordia-St. Paul (2-3) at Minnesota State-Mankato (3-2), 2pmWinona State (4-1) at Upper Iowa (1-4), 2pm
The Warriors come into Fayette riding high after defeating Mankato a 2nd straight year. It's starting to look like Winona might be for real. The last few seasons the Warriors have been an ever-dangerous team, but one that finished under .500 each of the last 2 campaigns. This year certainly appears different with biggest difference being the defense. At the same time, the Warrior offense has become more efficient and has a consistent
running game. Don't be fooled though, QB Jack Nelson is still where it begins and ends for Winona State.

UIU is the 1-4 team you don't wanna play. The Peacocks have hung with 1-loss squads but are dead last in turnover margin at -6. Dimitri Morales hasn't quite looked like the quarterback who was in POY discussions until his mid-year 2015 injury. That said, if the Peacocks ever put everything together with their weapons they have, look out.

I like WSU to take care of business on the road (if they are the team I think they are), but I don't expect UIU to lay down either. This is a bit of a trap game for WSU with USF coming to Winona next Saturday.
WSU 45-27

Minnesota-Crookston (0-5) at Minnesota State-Moorhead (2-3), 6pm
Moorhead has seen a tough slate of games with USF, Mankato, and Duluth. Moorhead trailed each of the top squads by a touchdown in the 4th quarter but wasn't able to close the distance. This is certainly an indication MSUM is right there, but not quite at the level of those upper level squads. Last week Jake Hodge fully returned to the Dragons offense. He threw for over 300 yards and 2 scores while Cory Ambrose led the Dragons with 7 grabs for 130 yards and 2 TDs. With the Crookston defense allowing 48ppg, expect Hodge and Moorhead to have a successful day in the air and on the ground.
Dragons 34-0

Southwest Minnesota State (4-1) at Sioux Falls (5-0), 6pm
Game of the Week in the Northern Sun. USF comes in after an emotionally draining win against their rival Augustana, while SMSU outlasted an pesky Upper Iowa squad. USF leads the NCAA Division II in total yards per game at 568, while SMSU in only 2 spots behind at 548 per contest. The Mustangs get the brunt of their yards in the air from QB Blake Gimbel (71% passer, 15 TDs) and his large group of pass-catchers. The SMSU rushing game really hasn't missed a beat despite injury, going from the 1st and 2nd options to the 3rd and 4th within the first month of the season. At this point the Mustangs are working with a pair of true freshman in Isley Carrington and Max Simmons who left the game early in last week's game. Both have run strong when given the opportunity but the passing game is still the focus of the Mustang offensive attack. SMSU leads the NSIC in points per game at 46.

The USF offense has really made a remarkable change from a pass heavy squad to a team hard to defend because of the two-headed rushing monster of Luke Papilion and Max Mickey. Supplement the Coo ground attack with solid targets in the passing game for Papilion plus an offensive line playing at the top of its game, and the Cougars are leading D2 in Total Offense.

Defensively SMSU struggles keep opponents to a low number, giving up 33ppg. USF is at 21ppg, fairly impressive in an offensive-happy NSIC. Especially since the Cougars have played 2 of the best teams in the conference already (Bemidji and Augie). USF is led by do-everything inside backer Michael Mehling and hard hitting safety Josh Butler. Butler had a handful ofl big hits in the Augustana game (and others), one of them resulting in a targeting call which will has him out for the first half against SMSU. Butler is a player who hits with all of his 175 lb frame and he walks a thin line between making a jarring tackle and having it being construed as a targeting foul. Certainly Butler adds an edge to a Cougar defense that plays with a swagger, as I mentioned after seeing them up-close against SCSU in week one.

In this matchup between monster offenses, I see them both having a good amount of success. I expect USF to bring a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Blake Gimbel is more stationary than either Jordan Hein and Troy Heid, who the Cougars faced the previous two weeks. SMSU has a better short passing game than either of those opponents though and could make USF pay for sending extra bodies to rush the passer. On the flip side, I fully expect SMSU to struggle putting the brakes on the Cougars rushing game as that's a pain point for the Mustang defense.

Many people on social media have speculated this game will have over 1000 yards of offense. Go with the over. I'm guessing the contest will finish around 1100 yards between the teams. I'll go with 650 for USF and another 450 (possibly more) from SMSU. As for the score..
Cougars 48-31




Witt's Picks 2016 record: 30-10