Introduction:
The D2 Regional Rankings for football can be hard to follow. This column attempts to simplify things a bit, if possible. I warn you, math is involved.

The Basics:
There are 4 Super Regions in D2 Football. In the past, six teams from each Super Region made the playoffs. In 2015 the NCAA changed it to seven qualifiers from each Super Region for a total of 28 post season entrants. For the purpose of this column the focus is on Super Region 3 (SR3) and the 4 Conferences that comprise it.

Conferences: (map below)
GAC: Arkansas, Oklahoma.
GNAC: California, Utah, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington, and Canada.
MIAA: Missouri, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Kansas.
NSIC: Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa.

Regional Rankings:
The Regional Rankings determine the best 7 teams in region. This is not a poll and national polling has nothing to do with who makes the playoffs. In addition, winning one's conference has nothing to do with the playoffs. Margin of victory has no bearing on playoff selection.

Regional Ranking is determined by a teams winning percentage, strength of schedule, and opposition's strength of schedule. The formula for a teams overall strength of schedule is as follows..

SOS = (OWP + OWP + OOWP) / 3

Here's the rest of the core criteria, as posted on the NCAA.com website.





Regional Rankings reflect the numbers year-to-date. These rankings come out every Monday at 3pm CST for the final three weeks of the regular season, with the playoff teams determined and released on Sunday November 13thConference SOS
Donnie Wagner
Associate Director, Championships and Alliances
Earned Access
EA is when a conference has a team in the Top 8, but not the Top 7Transparency
Starting in 2015 the NCAA started to display a worksheet link at the bottom of the Regional Rankings page. This link takes you to a 2 page worksheet that shows all the core and secondary criteria, as laid out by the NCAA. Transparency is the intent of the worksheet and moving away from the perception of a smoke-filled room with committee members siding with certain teams or not using the core criteria as the basis for decisions made regarding seeding. This is a very positive step regarding the Regional Rankings and theoretically gives fans and schools a better idea of what contributes to the field of teams selected.
Who is on the selection committee?
Each conference has 2 representatives in the group with the exception of the GNAC who only has 1.




What's it going to take to make the playoffs?With 7 teams how does the seeding work? Who plays who?
In a 7 team regional tournament the top seed will get a bye. Here is the breakdown..
#5 at #4 (winner plays at #1 in round 2)
#7 at #2, #6 at #3 (winning teams play at the better seed in round 2)


Analysis

The first Regional Rankings release..10/24/2016



Here are some thoughts after reviewing the initial Regional Rankings :

SOS isn't being taken into account in SR3Playing OOC GamesWhat's the additional criteria the committee is looking at then..?
As outlined already, "best win" is apparently something important. One can then deduce bad losses would be part of this additional input, as well as wins against other teams in the top 10 of the Regional Rankings.


Handicapping the field from this point forward..
Armed now with with how the committee is looking at SR3 this year, one can better speculate about future rankings (assuming the committee stays consistent from week to week in their methodology)

1. NWMSU (8-0)
The Bearcats should stay number 1 in the rankings if they win out. The 'Cats host Pitt State this week and should put up a big number on the Gorillas. The following week NWMSU plays at Fort Hays. That should be their biggest test the rest of the way, but they do have a rivalry game to end the year with Missouri Western.

2. USF (8-0)
The Cougars only real hurdle is a substantial one at Mankato this weekend. While USF has made a splash since entering the NSIC in 2012, the only team it haven't beaten in the conference is MSU. USF needs to get that monkey off its back to remain in the top 3 in the rankings, securing a home game. If the Cougars lose to Mankato they are still safe for making the field of teams in the playoffs, but would seemingly drop to the 4th-5th-6th spot.

3. Harding (8-0)
HU plays 3 squads that all are sitting at 4-4 at the moment. None of them should be a nail-biter for Harding, but Arkansas Tech in the final week might be the most difficult of the bunch. If Harding wins out they are likely staying in the 3 spot, but with a loss by either of the top 2 squads they'd move up.

4. UMD (7-1)
The Bulldogs had a huge win against Bemidji State last week that helped slot them into the 4 spot. While UMD has a good SOS at the moment, it will fall off a cliff for the remainder of the year as the 3 remaining opponents have a combined 5 wins. However, if SOS isn't being considered as a measurable tool, the 'Dogs might very well keep their 4 spot whereas they'd otherwise drop. I'm guessing UMD stays at 4 as it has wins over BSU and WSU, both of which are listed in the top 10 in the RR. This would have them hosting the #5 team come playoff time.

5. Emporia State (7-1)
With ESU winning close games against not-great teams lately, I think the Hornets struggle to finish with 1 loss. Fort Hays is the opponent this week followed by Missouri Western and Washburn. That's a 6 win opponent, followed by 4 wins and 5 wins. If ESU wins out, it could jump UMD if SOS gets scrutinized. If ESU drops to 2 losses they will have the tie-breaking win over CMU.

6. Azusa Pacific (6-1), 7-1 overall
APU has CWU this week, which will sort things out a bit between the GNAC squads. It's hard to see APU getting ahead of the other 1 loss squads given how this initial ranking turned out. APU will likely finish with the best SOS in the region, but have nothing to show for it. One could make a case they should be hosting a playoff game in R1 if it wins out. If APU loses, the Cougars might very well fall out of the running.

7. CWU (5-1)8. Central Mizzouri (6-2)
I take back what I said about SOS in the case of CMU. They have the best SOS of any 2 loss squad and have been ranked accordingly. Central has one of the easiest schedules remaining and no real tests the rest of the way. CMU should be in the conversation for the 7 spot next week.

9. Bemidji State (6-2)
BSU is about 2 plays away from being 8-0. The Beavers don't have much left on the schedule and should finish with just 2 losses. With a win over Mankato in their pocket, the Beavers block the Mavericks from entering the mix ahead of them. BSU should be very much in the top 7 conversation in the following weeks.

10. Winona State (6-2)
The Warriors crack this top 10, but seemingly by just a thread. WSU also has a tie-breaking win over Mankato, but doesn't have the best measurables when put up against other 2 loss squads. WSU plays at 5-3 Augustana this week in a game where they might be a road underdog.

the others..
Henderson State - needs some help seeing as they lose the 2-loss tie-breaker with SAU.
MSU-Mankato - the Mavs need for WSU and BSU to both lose. A win this weekend against USF is needed to stay alive.
Southern Arkansas - has a bad loss, but has a tie-breaker over HSU. This squad might be a dark horse, but I'm not ruling them out.
Fort Hays - has Emporia and NWMSU the next 2 weeks. I think we will be done talking about them and the playoffs shortly.

In Summary..

The job of the selection committee is a difficult one, given some of the scheduling challenges in Super Region 3 and the lack of OOC games for the group to compare. I'm expecting there's a real chance at some unexpected movement with the top 10 teams as the committee looks for additional ways to determine the seeding of the squads.

As always, the teams need to go out and win their games or none of this speculation matters at all. If you finish with 3 losses, you are out of this conversation entirely. Win and then see if you can catch a break from one of the teams ahead of you.