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(Pictured: Zach Shelley-HU. Photo: Harding Athletics)
*This week's column is a collaborative effort between former GAC Columnist Armo Wood and NSIC writer Matt Witwicki. You will see feedback from both writers in the preview below.
Both squads notched their first Division II playoff win in fairly convincing fashion. The second round clash that now awaits will see two of the top three rushing attacks in the country, while both teams are also very good at stopping the run as well.
For USF fans, Harding is team that snuck into the 6th and final playoff spot instead of the one loss 2014 Cougars. Considering the way the NSIC performed in the postseason that year, there was much frustration with the Coo being left out of the playoffs.
Harding history and Coach Huck
1989 was the last time Harding won a football conference championship. It was as a member of the old NAIA Arkansas Intercollegiate Conference (AIC) and it was a co-championship.
(Pictured: Ronnie Huckeba-HU. Photo: Mitchell PE Masilun)
He laid the foundation of a winning culture by embodying an attitude of seeing his players as a person first, a student second and a player third.
The Triple Option Offense
The main talking point leading into this contest is can a team like USF prepare itself in a handful of days to slow down a top level triple option running attack? Even if USF did play Mary, HU runs this offense far better than a 1-win squad just cutting its teeth on this new attack.
For those unfamiliar with the triple option offense, here is a diagram that shows its base look.
The defense needs to contend with the idea of the football going to the fullback up the middle, the quarterback keeping it, or if both those options are defensed, a pitch to a back starting as a slot-back in the formation. The options are in that order, fullback, quarterback, slotback. This creates the need to great discipline by the defense and assignment football, otherwise the offense will have a clear advantage. When the defense starts to show signs of slowing down the triple, the offense can run a counter that shows a similar look but with the backside slotback running the ball against the grain. Typically a triple option offense will seldom pass and only use that part of the attack as a change of pace or in emergency situations.
Players to Watch:
Harding Bisons
Sioux Falls Cougars
HU Offense vs USF Defense
While Parish and Latu are the leading rushers and scorers in the ground game, the Bisons have seven other players with over 200 yards rushing and each one of them has scored at least one touchdown this season.
Just because Harding runs the ball a lot and seldom passes does not mean they cannot pass. The Bisons lead the nation in pass efficiency and, as demonstrated last week, are very capable of not only being efficient (6 of 7) but of racking up passing yards (173) and scoring through the air when they need to.
The USF defense will come out in a 4-3 approach and is led by middle linebacker Michael Mehling. The senior backer is the leading tackler for the Cougars, and a player that can be seen chasing down ball-carriers from sideline to sideline. The other player typically most noticeable is hard-hitting safety Josh Butler.
Sioux Falls is near the top of the Northern Sun in sacks this season. Cornerbacks Delvin Batiste and Cliff Redmond are physical corners. They've given up some big games to the top receivers in the NSIC, but have looked better as the year continued. The duo has 9 interceptions between them.
The Coo has limited opposing running attacks to 3.0 yards per carry, best in the Northern Sun. A week ago APU brought in a potent running game but was limited to 46 yards on 21 attempts.
HU Defense vs USF Offense
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The pass defense has been much better this year, though it has had some first half hiccups in a couple of games. Another aspect of the Bisons defense that has been great this year is their ability to make in-game and halftime adjustments. A perfect example of all these attributes coming together is the playoff game against Central Missouri. The Mules racked up 240 passing yards, 49 rushing yards and 24 points in the first half, but Harding kept them to 87 passing yards, 5 rushing yards and 7 points in the second half.
The USF attack is a run-based zone read scheme that's 3rd in the nation in total offense. The Coo's first option is Harlon Hill nominee Max Mickey but also mix in Justin Fulks as well in the running game. Mickey is second nationally with 1714 yards and touchdowns (19), and offers USF a homerun hitter. He's eclipsed the 100 yard mark 9 times this season. QB Luke Papilion also gets carries but could be limited in his playmaking abilities. Papilion left the last two games prematurely due to injuries.
(Pictured: Antonio Green-USF and Max Mickey-USF. Photo: MW)
The USF offensive line is a veteran group lead by center Trevor Wescott, a team captain and four year starter. Pancaking offensive guard and Upshaw Award Finalist Antonio Green is probably the most dynamic of the group and plays with a high motor. The past two seasons the OL has allowed Papilion to be sacked a total of 14 times, best in the NSIC.
Josh Angulo and Brady Rose have been the key receivers the last three seasons and each caught more than 50 balls this year. The pair can be characterized as sure-handed and physical and will test the courage of defensive backs looking to tackle them. Rose specifically, has dumptrucked many a defensive back.
In years past the Cougars relied more on the passing game but with the incredible running success in 2016 the need to pass has been quelled.
Outlook
Armo's thoughts: The secondary, however, has shown a susceptibility to well executed play action passing.
Overall, these two teams are in many ways mirrors of one another. The differences are really more in formation sets than actual substance. Both teams are about establishing the run offensively and shutting down the run defensively. This is going to be a good ole fashioned game of smash mouth. Offensively, the Coo incorporate more passing than the Bisons. Defensively, the Bisons do a better job defending the pass.
I do think Harding does have the advantage over Sioux Falls when it comes to previous experience with opposing offenses and defenses. Several GAC teams run 4-3 defenses, allowing Harding to have seen many variations of the 4-3 used to defend against the triple. Conversely, there are a few GAC teams (namely Ouachita, Southeastern Oklahoma and Arkansas Tech) that like to run the ball out of spread or multiple one-back sets.
This game in many ways is going to be a chess match with field position likely being critical. I think a lot in this game will come down to who can adjust more quickly on both sides of the ball and use those adjustments in combination with scoring opportunities.
There are three reasons why I believe Harding will come away with a close hard fought victory:
However, teams cannot coach up speed.
Bisons 28-21
Witt's thoughts: Harding has a lot of team speed, especially at the skill positions. Harding has a smooth running fullback, a quick footed quarterback and game-breaking speed at the slotback position. One thing of note. Harding leads the country in lost fumbles with 19. Certainly being a running team has a great deal to do with that, however, USF has shown better ball security in its high powered running game with just 7 turnovers via fumble.
I foresee the Cougars not trying to enter a track meet with the visiting Bisons, but instead looking to win a fight in a phone-booth, imposing their physicality on a smaller opponent. The NSIC is a more of a smashmouth league than the GAC, with teams like USF, Mankato, Bemidji State, and UMD all being very physical.
When defending the Bisons flexbone offense, I think USF will mix up looks to try and prolong the figuring out process for HU signal-caller Park Parish. While Parish has the appearance of a slot-receiver, he is the GAC Offensive POY and has rushed for over 1,000 yards.
This is where I see a real chess match occurring with Parish trying to find what he perceives to be soft spots in the defense. Ideally, USF will want to get leading tackler Michael Mehling heavily involved in slowing down this new-look attack. Keeping blockers off Mehling and company will be a challenge for USF given the downfield blocking in the Bisons rushing attack. A player like Josh Butler will play a key role for the Cougars laying the lumber on the edge.
The matchup far less spoken is USF's offense against the top rated Harding defense. First round opponent Azusa Pacific had some eye-popping stats on the defensive side of the ball yet USF hammered away at them for 489 yards of total offense, 318 on the ground. The Bisons team speed could certainly disrupt USF's ability to make plays in space, and players like athletic defensive end Trevon Biglow and the versatile DB/LB Scott Middleton will surely be players of concern for the Cougars. While HU has been the best team in D2 against the run, I do feel they will be tested with the manner in which USF runs the zone-read, and the spread plays the Cougars run so effectively.
Originally, the forecast suggested 20 mph wind Saturday. It now is looking like sunny, mild and 45 degrees. This certainly helps the warm-weather Bisons, as Bob Young Field can be a tricky place for visiting squads due to a typically steady breeze and winter weather this time of year. However, calm conditions should also help the team looking to air things out more, the Cougars. Harding was 6 of 7 through the air a week ago and has been very efficient when Parish has thrown, but the Bisons run-first quarterback is just a 41% passer for his career.
Overall I feel this Cougars team is more battle tested over the last few years than Harding. With quarterback Papilion and his offensive line a large part of the Coo's success (Papilion is 35-7 as a starter), I think it offers them a steady hand in a big game of this sort.
(Pictured: Luke Papilion-USF. Photo: MW)
Like with any accomplished triple option attack, expect some splash plays and ugly moments for a USF defense facing this style of offense for the first time. But given how well the Cougars got to the football last week, allowing only 9 first downs against a solid APU squad, I like the USF defense getting off the field often enough to allow a seasoned offense a chance to take the attack to the visiting Bisons. I expect USF to surprise HU by making explosive plays in both the running and passing attacks.
I think they will do that. I like the Cougars to win an exciting battle between these first time combatants.
Cougars 38-28
