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Here are my final predictions for the OTY awards & All-Conference…
Player of the Year – Drew Blair (Duluth)
Three weeks ago I said the race between Blair & Malik Willingham was very tight, but I think Blair has widened it quite a bit since then. During Duluth’s ongoing 11-game winning streak, Blair has averaged 25.5 PTS and 5.2 REB, with shooting splits of 52.7/40.4/78.8%. During the same stretch, Willingham’s averaged 18.4 PTS, 3.3 REB, 5.2 AST & 43.3%/32.9%/81.8% shooting. Willingham has more talent around him, so he facilitates more than Blair (4.5 AST/g for the season vs. 2.1 for Blair). But I think the voters (the coaches, right?) will end up voting for the guy who was the pre-season POTY pick, and has been the engine behind a team that is looking really fearsome heading into the postseason.
(A special shout out to Isaac Fink, who I said would have an outside chance at this, and has been DYNAMITE this last month, performing just as well as Blair in the last 11 games. I just don’t see voters giving POTY to a guy on a team with a 13-9 conference record.)
Defensive Player of the Year – Cliff Cofield (SMSU)
I can’t even think of who else would be an option here. Cofield is #1 in the defensive counting stat that voters most weigh (1.9 STL/g), but the eye-test also says he’s very apparently the defender that most teams would worry about/gameplan around. SMSU’s 3rd in scoring defense, 1st in defensive FG%, and 2nd in STL/g, and Cofield is the main part of all of that. I’ll be upset if he doesn’t get it this year.
Freshman of the Year – Aeron Stevens (SMSU)
This is assuming they bring this award back this year after a 2-year hiatus (thinking they might since we’ll only have 1 POTY this year). I gave Arhman Lewis some consideration, as his insertion to the starting lineup was very impactful to Augie’s mid-season turnaround. But Stevens has played 100 more minutes this season (3.6 more MIN/g), averaged 4 more PTS/g, and gets to the FT line a crazy amount (5.7 FTA/g, 2nd in conference). I’ve rarely seen a true freshman be so physical in the paint as he has been.
Newcomer of the Year – Dylan Peeters (Mankato)
Assuming the FOTY award happens and this award goes to a transfer, I’m saying Peeters gets it, but with the lowest amount of confidence of any of these award. I really don’t know on this one. I’m stuck between Peeters, JaMir Price (MSUM), and Trey Deveaux (Wayne). I think Deveaux is actually the safest lock for an All-Conference spot over the other two, as the best player on a team voters may want to give one All-Conf spot to, but I have a feeling voters would want to give this award to someone who had an impact on a contending team. So between Peeters & Price, it’s splitting hairs on what you value. If you want the consistently solid guy who does all the little things (rebounding, getting fouled, some interior passing), vote Peeters. If you want the occasionally flashy guy who can take over/win a game and fill up the bucket, vote Price. I’ll say more voters want the former. (Suppose it’s possible Justin Eagins wins this thing, too, but I’m not sure if he’d count as a true newcomer, nor would I be sure people would pick him over his teammate Peeters.)
Coach of the Year – Matt Margenthaler (Mankato)
Gaaaaah, I REALLY wanted Matt Murken of Minot to get this, as I respect that team’s tanker-turning with the same roster as last year. But Minot’s lost 4 of their last 6, and COTY never goes to a team outside the top 2 of the conf. standings. And Margenthaler has done a great job, seamlessly incorporating 3 transfers into a starting lineup that’s the best in the NSIC, and getting his team to cut down on the turnovers that’s plagued them the last few seasons. He’s earned it.
(For All-Conference teams, I'm assuming they stick to the bloated 12-guys-per-team structure. If they slim down to 10 per team, then kick my last 2 on 1st team to 2nd, and my last 4 on 2nd to off the list.)
All-Conference First Team
Player of the Year – Drew Blair (Duluth)
Three weeks ago I said the race between Blair & Malik Willingham was very tight, but I think Blair has widened it quite a bit since then. During Duluth’s ongoing 11-game winning streak, Blair has averaged 25.5 PTS and 5.2 REB, with shooting splits of 52.7/40.4/78.8%. During the same stretch, Willingham’s averaged 18.4 PTS, 3.3 REB, 5.2 AST & 43.3%/32.9%/81.8% shooting. Willingham has more talent around him, so he facilitates more than Blair (4.5 AST/g for the season vs. 2.1 for Blair). But I think the voters (the coaches, right?) will end up voting for the guy who was the pre-season POTY pick, and has been the engine behind a team that is looking really fearsome heading into the postseason.
(A special shout out to Isaac Fink, who I said would have an outside chance at this, and has been DYNAMITE this last month, performing just as well as Blair in the last 11 games. I just don’t see voters giving POTY to a guy on a team with a 13-9 conference record.)
Defensive Player of the Year – Cliff Cofield (SMSU)
I can’t even think of who else would be an option here. Cofield is #1 in the defensive counting stat that voters most weigh (1.9 STL/g), but the eye-test also says he’s very apparently the defender that most teams would worry about/gameplan around. SMSU’s 3rd in scoring defense, 1st in defensive FG%, and 2nd in STL/g, and Cofield is the main part of all of that. I’ll be upset if he doesn’t get it this year.
Freshman of the Year – Aeron Stevens (SMSU)
This is assuming they bring this award back this year after a 2-year hiatus (thinking they might since we’ll only have 1 POTY this year). I gave Arhman Lewis some consideration, as his insertion to the starting lineup was very impactful to Augie’s mid-season turnaround. But Stevens has played 100 more minutes this season (3.6 more MIN/g), averaged 4 more PTS/g, and gets to the FT line a crazy amount (5.7 FTA/g, 2nd in conference). I’ve rarely seen a true freshman be so physical in the paint as he has been.
Newcomer of the Year – Dylan Peeters (Mankato)
Assuming the FOTY award happens and this award goes to a transfer, I’m saying Peeters gets it, but with the lowest amount of confidence of any of these award. I really don’t know on this one. I’m stuck between Peeters, JaMir Price (MSUM), and Trey Deveaux (Wayne). I think Deveaux is actually the safest lock for an All-Conference spot over the other two, as the best player on a team voters may want to give one All-Conf spot to, but I have a feeling voters would want to give this award to someone who had an impact on a contending team. So between Peeters & Price, it’s splitting hairs on what you value. If you want the consistently solid guy who does all the little things (rebounding, getting fouled, some interior passing), vote Peeters. If you want the occasionally flashy guy who can take over/win a game and fill up the bucket, vote Price. I’ll say more voters want the former. (Suppose it’s possible Justin Eagins wins this thing, too, but I’m not sure if he’d count as a true newcomer, nor would I be sure people would pick him over his teammate Peeters.)
Coach of the Year – Matt Margenthaler (Mankato)
Gaaaaah, I REALLY wanted Matt Murken of Minot to get this, as I respect that team’s tanker-turning with the same roster as last year. But Minot’s lost 4 of their last 6, and COTY never goes to a team outside the top 2 of the conf. standings. And Margenthaler has done a great job, seamlessly incorporating 3 transfers into a starting lineup that’s the best in the NSIC, and getting his team to cut down on the turnovers that’s plagued them the last few seasons. He’s earned it.
(For All-Conference teams, I'm assuming they stick to the bloated 12-guys-per-team structure. If they slim down to 10 per team, then kick my last 2 on 1st team to 2nd, and my last 4 on 2nd to off the list.)
All-Conference First Team
- Drew Blair (Duluth)
- Malik Willingham (Mankato)
- Isaac Fink (Augie)
- John Sutherland (Bemidji)
- Connor Dillon (Winona)
- Jacksen Moni (Northern)
- Josh Dilling (Northern) – yes, a bad Northern team gets two guys on 1st team, because without these two they would be utterly dreadful. Moni & Dilling’s stats are eye-catching.
- Jake Phipps (SMSU)
- Khari Broadway (Minot) – has struggled of late, but I think Minot will get a 1st team designee.
- Jacob Beeninga (MSUM) – gosh, his shooting numbers are just sooo bad, but I don’t see where MSUM doesn’t get a 1st team pick, and voters will pick Beeninga for his scoring & the fact that the offense largely revolves around him.
- Jack Thompson (Sioux Falls) – one of those “legacy” picks for a senior who “plays the game the right way”, as Augieholic pointed out
- Kyreese Willingham (Mankato) – the 2nd best Mankato guy, and would be fun to have two brothers on 1st team together.
- Jadan Graves (Augie) – would love to see him on 1st team, but I think Mankato’s more likely to get their 2nd guy on.
- Trey Deveaux (Wayne)
- Dalton Albrecht (Bemidji)
- Charlie Katona (Duluth)
- Blaize Sagna (Crookston) – dropped him from 1st team since he’s no longer the leading scorer in the conf (is now 5th) and his shooting has plummeted the last 3 weeks.
- Cliff Cofield (SMSU)
- Marcus Skeete (Concordia)
- Dane Zimmer (MSUM) – another one of those “legacy” picks.
- Connor Hollenbeck (Minot)
- Aeron Stevens (SMSU)
- JaMir Price (MSUM)
- Dylan Peeters (Mankato)
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