2024-25 NSIC Men Team Thoughts: Who Do You Trust Most?

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

With 2.5 weeks of the regular season to go, I wanted to try to make sense of the mess that is the NSIC men in 2024-25. I tried to rank these teams on the question “How much do I trust this team to win in the postseason?” I put them into loose tiers, with group two being a variable pair with big injury questions.

So who are the teams YOU trust most?

(Note: all statistics & conference rankings are through Feb. 1^st games.)

Group One – can win conference tournament as currently constructed

#1 – SMSU – 8^th in OFF, 2^nd in DEF, 3^rd in margin
I was pretty high on this team when I started writing this post, but Wednesday’s poor performance spooks me a bit. SMSU’s calling card is obviously their defense, particularly coming from the perimeter. When the ball is entered into the post their bigs are capable enough, but the swirling arms from Jakob Braaten, Mekhi Shaw, and Dunwa Omot for well-timed digs forces a lot of Jackie Moon “right back out” passes. That’s part of the reason the Mustangs give up the 2^nd-most 3-point attempts/g in the conference (27.5), but their quick retreats to shooters result in a low hit rate for opponents (32.3% from 3, making SMSU 4^th in the NSIC on that metric). And they do all of this without fouling: SMSU is 1^st in the NSIC (and 3^rd nationally) in fouls/g at 12.5, and 1^st in NSIC in defensive FTA/g (13.4). With hardly ever being in foul trouble, Brad Bigler can stick to his tightly-crafted 9-man rotation and preserve his starters’ legs for the last few minutes of any close game.

Their offense is a bit more troubling, as was clear against Duluth this week. Their most effective ploy is getting Braaten to a spot where he can back down smaller guards. When that happens every opposing head coach screams for help, but Braaten has already lofted the miniest of hooks. If help does come in time, Braaten can pass out to shooters, where the Mustangs at times have 5 capable 3-point launchers on the floor (when Shaw is in for Steven Kramer). But SMSU doesn’t love the long-ball (14^th in NSIC at 19.4 att/g) and would prefer to keep it in the paint (1^st in conf. in % of points coming from the paint at 49.3%). Against solid interior defense teams like Duluth & Winona you have to hope you can still approach that number, or let someone like Mason Lund launch from the outside. It helps that Aeron Stevens expanded his range to the 3-point line (38.7%) so that he’s a true “all 3 levels” scorer.

So this team can definitely still win the conference tournament and some national tourney games, but they will need to be more consistent offensively to avoid outcomes like Wednesday.

#2 – Concordia St. Paul – 1st in OFF, 15th in DEF, 6th in margin
Don’t think too strongly about them being last in defense. A lot of that is attributed to their playing at a blistering pace of 74.8 possessions/g, far and away the fastest in the NSIC. That leads to more possessions for both teams and more opportunities to score. They’re 9th in defensive FG% (44.6%) and actually 1st in defensive 3-point % (31.5%). If the defensive scoring was pace-controlled, I’d estimate the Golden Bears would sit around 10th or 11th. Still not great, but not abysmal. Their main issues defensively are giving up too many paint points (41.5 per game, most in NSIC; again, some pacing influence there, but that’s still nearly 10 more points/g than the conference average of 32.1), and not forcing many turnovers (9.1 per game, 14th in NSIC). You would think a team with a fast pace would be generating live-ball steals and getting fastbreak points, but they’re 14th in steals (4.77 per game) and 7th in the percentage of their points coming from the fastbreak (10.5%). So they’re basically mediocre on defense, and could definitely improve.

On offense, CSP is dynamic. Antwan Kimmons is a different level of scorer, using his athleticism and smarts to get to the rim (9.3 FTA/g, highest in NSIC), pull-up from midrange and occasionally from 3. He can find his open shooters like Marcus Skeete (43.1% from 3) & Ben Kopetzki (44.6% from 3), or work the pick-n-roll with Cade Meyer. Slowly integrating Jappanah Kellogg is finally bearing fruit, as he had 26 points against Sioux Falls in triple OT last night. I’ll be curious if this two-big lineup stays the norm, because you run the risk of clogging the lane for Kimmons drives. But if it helps with their rebounding (6th in total rebounding %, a more accurate metric than the pace-dictated REB/g number CSP currently leads in), maybe that can generate more 2nd-chance looks for them. Matt Fletcher has this team’s offense humming, so as long as they keep stepping on the gas in order to outpace teams, that could remain enough to win the NSIC tourney.

#3 – Mankato – 3rd in OFF, 8th in DEF, 5th in margin
The reigning champs have bounced back from a tough start to the season, and have only lost to good teams within the conference. In the non-conf run I observed that the Mavs were really missing Dylan Peeters’s presence inside, and I think that’s still generally true. Opposing paint points are still an issue (33.8 per game, 11th in NSIC), and there’s a weird split in their rebounding ability. They’re 3rd in offensive rebounding % (30.1%) but 12th in defensive rebounding % (72.3%), meaning they’re not closing out possessions as much as they like re-starting their own. They’re a little undersized against teams like Concordia SP, Sioux Falls, and MSUM, so going up against them could be a tough matchup in the conference tourney.

But ultimately, Mankato improved their play in the conference schedule by maximizing their offensive possessions through those offensive rebounds and simply not turning the ball over. They rank 1st in the NSIC and 3rd nationally in committing just 9.2 turnovers/g. Kyreese Willingham is averaging less than 1 turnover per game since Dec. 14th, a miraculous number given his high usage rate. That kind of care for the ball can make up for when your offense is just 10th in FG% (45.2%), 9th in 3PT% (34.9%), and 14th in FTA/g (14.3). And when you bring down 11.4 OREBs/g (2nd in conf.), you give yourself more room for error when the error is not lazy passes or rushed decision making. The shooting is a little concerning, and Justin Eagins has been more up-and-down than I would like from deep this year, but if he gets on a heater those maximized possessions can become more outsized in slower postseason games.

#4 – Minot State – 2^nd in OFF, 4^th in DEF, 1^st in margin
Well this team has certainly proven they can beat anybody in this conference AND lose to anybody in this conference (Crookston, OOF). I know it looks like Minot is mirroring last season by starting their losing streak now, so I’ll be watching their next 3 games against good teams very closely. There’s nothing that the Beavers do that they’re especially bad at (other than having a bench that feels somewhat thin). So the only concern I see is some inconsistent play from their role players. Caleb Van De Griend is a model of double-double consistency with 70% shooting every damn night. And his other starters are good when they’re good, but can have off nights that lead to defeats like Crookston or MSUM on Wed. Jalen Cook & Jaxon Gunville are the definition of streaky shooters. Ayouba Berthe is a little more stable but susceptible to off nights, as well. The guy I trust 2^nd most on this team is Sam West, who does a great job of rebounding and finding Caleb for interior passes or the night’s hot shooters on the outside.

They are the conference’s best overall rebounding team, pacing 1^st in total rebounding % (56.0%), 2^nd in offensive rebounding % (32.8%), and 3^rd in defensive rebounding % (77.3%). They also make the most of those O-boards, earning the most 2^nd chance points/g (13.3). So as long as the Australian stays active down under the rim, and Minot doesn’t get too cold from 3, they could absolutely win enough games down the stretch to finally earn a national tournament slot.

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

Group Two – can win conference tournament with potential injury returns

#??? (2-5) – Duluth – 5^th in OFF, 3rd in DEF, 2nd in margin
The Bulldogs are STILL the most experienced team in the NSIC, with Charlie Katona, Joshua Brown, and Austin Andrews all regular mainstays of numerous UMD postseason runs. That kind of longevity does help in feeling settled in the Pentagon or poised when you face some adversity. And I’m sure it would calm their nerves even more if poised young point guard Caleb Siwek was able to join them in those games. I have no idea if he’s slated to come back from his injury, but if he did that would help me feel more confident about this team offensively. Kole Hanson has filled in amiably, but Siwek is a dynamic shooter and playmaker that would help space the floor for Katona to bully dudes on the block. They remain tough to defend in the paint (36.8 paint points/g, 3rd in NSIC), but would be even better if they could hit their FTs (65.0%, 13th in NSIC).

Siwek or no, their defense should remain stout. They contest all shots well (41.8% defensive FG%, 31.5% defensive 3PT%, both 2nd in NSIC) and are the best in the conference at cleaning up the defensive glass (78.9% defensive rebounding %). They just know exactly where to be on defense and how to follow the ball on rim caroms. Their size across the wings & bigs allows them to switch a lot of interior screens & motions, and Katona is quick enough to take on opposing point guards in PNR switches. I’m banking on their veteran presence steadying them through an NSIC run, but I’d feel more confident in that call with Siwek back.

#??? (2-6) – MSUM – 9^th in OFF, T-5^th in DEF, 8^th in margin
This team is by far the hardest to pin down (not just because I’m a little biased as a Dragons fan). The fact that they had two All-Conference guards go down mid-season, both of which have a chance of returning by the start of the postseason, but without them there also appears to be an heir apparent that’s having his own star turn in Carson Johnson. Like, if Jacob Beeninga & JaMir Price both return in the next few weeks, what guard rotation does Tim Bergstraser employ? Start the seasoned vets? Start the kid who’s been cooking lately and let an All-Conf player come off the bench? Start all 3 and go from super long to pretty small? It would be so fascinating to see those decisions play out. Because Johnson seems to be the real deal, with 42 points and all the clutch buckets in a double OT game last weekend. (BTW, Logan Kinsey is nearly matching him, averaging 19.1 in the last 8 games, becoming a real threat from downtown: 52.8% in those games.)

The tough part would come if neither Beeninga or Price can return for a postseason run. In that situation, the Dragons start a super long lineup (outside of PG) of 6’6, 6’6, 6’7’ and 7’1. That allows them to switch almost everything, allow the fewest number of opponent 3s per game in the conference (18.5), and still rebound at a solid rate (4^th in defensive rebounding % at 76.9%). A weird thing, though, is that even with all that length the Dragons force hardly any turnovers (8.8 per game, least in the conference). Even weirder on offense: the Dragons lead the NSIC in 3PT% (38.7%) but attempt the fewest number of 3s by far (18.2 per game). I take that as the Dragons being disciplined and really trying to get points through Jacob Jennissen or Logan Kinsey in the post.

So yeah, without the sidelined bros, I’d say this team would struggle to win the tournament (their only real shot at making the regional, I would think). But with them, and a guard rotation without any awkward chemistry issues, this team could make a real run at some national tournament wins.


Group Three – maybe not quite there

#7 – Winona State – 4^th in OFF, 7^th in DEF, 7^th in margin
I’m impressed by Winona’s ability to regroup after losing almost every contributing member from a successful team last year (except Connor Drew & Devon Fielding – who barely plays this year). The new guys came in and found a way to gel quickly into a cohesive starting 5 that gets to the line (21.9 FTA/g, 3^rd in NSIC) and defends shooters well (42.6%, 3^rd in NSIC). The issue becomes when they turn to their bench, as they don’t get much help from there. They only play 7 guys total, and the percentage of their points coming from their bench is the lowest in the NSIC (14.6% with 11.3 points/g). Should we really worry about that in a conference tournament? Yes and no. In postseason play coaches usually like to shorten their bench and rely on their studs anyway, but if foul trouble factors in or a 3^rd game in 4 days fatigues their starters can they rely on unproven guys to step up?

The Warriors are an interesting team in that they defend the paint well (27.7 opponent points/g, 2^nd in NSIC) despite not having a go-to rim protector (14^th in blocks/g with 2.14) and not owning the paint on their own end (14^th in paint points/g with 29.5). Like SMSU, this results in a lot of opponent 3-point shots (30.1 per game, most in NSIC), and they generally defend that well (32.3% defensive 3PT%, 5^th in conf), but it does leave open the chance of games like their MSUM spar where the Dragons hit 13-25 from deep and stole one on the road. The Warriors also crash the defensive boards very well (77.4% defensive rebounding %, 2^nd in NSIC) and do not allow many easy 2^nd chance points. That feels like a more stable defensive tenet that shouldn’t be as variable in the postseason. This team does feel similar to last year’s in that I can’t see them winning 3 straight in the NSIC tournament, but maybe they can get close enough to nab a spot in the regional.

#8 – St. Cloud State – 6^th in OFF, 10^th in DEF, 9^th in margin
Feels like all the tinkering Quincy Henderson did last year with a wild amount of different starting lineup combinations really did help him find the young guys that would contribute most to his squad this year. The 7- (sometimes 8- ) man rotation he has now is more concrete, and swapping Luke Winkel into the starting lineup for Anish Ramlall has worked well. It feels like this team knows its identity: we’re gonna out-tough you in a physical game. The Huskies shoot 24.2 free throws/g (1^st in NSIC), and grab 28.9% of available rebounds on offense (4^th in NSIC). In return, they may foul the hell out of you (19.7 per game, most in NSIC) and let you get your own FTs (19.9 per game, 2^nd most in NSIC). They’re betting on getting more value out of that exchange, and fortunately they do end up getting 4.3 more FTA/g. It’s working well enough to get them more wins this season, but that always runs the risk of officiating variability.

But they can also be clean enough to force some live-ball turnovers, as they’re 2^nd in the NSIC in both opponent TO/g (13.0) and steals/g (7.96). That will kickstart some decent fastbreak opportunities (9.5 points/g, 4^th in NSIC), and more helpfully save them from having to contest shot attempts, where they really struggle with 46.4% defensive FG% (13^th in NSIC). It’s gonna be a balancing act for them on a night-to-night basis: can they detect how tight a game is being called early enough to course correct? The team is still SO young: they don’t have a single junior or senior on their roster! I would say winning a conference tournament would be very difficult for them, but they could be building something quite imposing for the next 2-3 years.

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

Group Four – pining for the Pentagon

#9 – Wayne State – 10^th in OFF, 1^st in DEF, 4^th in margin
These Kaminsky Kats are the Kaminskiest of Kats that have ever Kaminskied. Of course they rank 1^st in the conference in defense (65.7 points/g), forced turnovers (14.2/g), turnover margin (4.05), steals (9.59/g), and fastbreak points/g (13.0). If they didn’t, Jeff Kaminsky would yell “TRAP” louder, and I don’t think he’s sonically capable of that. I really hope Jay Saunders gets some consideration for Defensive Player of the Year and even All-Conference, because that dude is just a dog on defense and leads the charge for these cats.

But while the defense never rests, sometimes the offense does. They don’t have a reliable every-night scorer, their 3-point shooting is bad (33.5%, 13^th in conf), and they don’t have a discernable identify other than take care of the ball (10.2 turnovers/g, 2^nd in conf). Their defense could get them an upset, maybe two in the conference tournament, but I don’t they can summon enough offense to truly compete for a spot in the regional.

#10 – Sioux Falls – 7^th in OFF, 9^th in DEF, 10^th in margin
The Cougars are leveraging their nice size into plenty of O-boards & 2^nd chance opportunities. Obviously 6’10 Creighton Morisch is the literal biggest reason for that, but 6’4 Shawn Warrior is tenacious in attacking the rim for those misfires, too. The team does a lot of sharing the ball around, too (16.5 assists/g, most in NSIC), but sometimes overpassing can lead to turnovers (13.6/g, also most in NSIC). On defense they block some shots (3.55/g, 3^rd in NSIC) but that’s about all they do well. They foul too much (17.0, 13^th in NSIC) and don’t force nearly enough turnovers (10.4/g, 11^th in NSIC) as they give up themselves. That will keep them from truly competing for anything real.

#11 – Augustana – 12^th in OFF, 5^th in DEF, 11^th in margin
The Vikings are a little underwhelming this year, and that’s OK. A new coach, lots of new players, and they lost their two best young guys from last year’s squad. Tanner Te Slaa is good at a little bit of everything, and should be a good leader for next year’s squad. There’s some good zip & vision for Tameron Ferguson, but he’s gotta fix his shooting woes from 3 & the line. They’re disciplined about not turning the ball over (10.2/g, 2^nd in conf) & defending the paint (28.5, 3^rd in NSIC). They just really need to find or develop some shooting and dynamic playmaking for their offense to have any verve next year.

#12 – Bemidji State – 11^th in OFF, 11^th in DEF, 12^th in margin
I get that the John Sutherland injury tanked their season, but I struggle to see what other talent there was on this roster that made folks place them as high as 5^th in the preseason poll. Tate Olson can score/rebound, & John Pecarich shoots it well, but a top-5 team around Sutherland that does not make. Sutherland is his usual self: cooking down low (and missing FTs) and finding perimeter shooters. And thank God he’s good at passing, because defenses have every reason to double him and rely on other Beavers missing. Their biggest hope is to steal a 1^st-round NSIC victory as a last hurrah before the post-Sutherland era begins.


Fifth group – better luck next year… or the year after that…
#13 – Crookston – 13^th in OFF, 14^th in DEF, 13^th in margin
#14 – UMary – 15^th in OFF, 12^th in DEF, 14^th in margin
#15 – Northern St – #14^th in OFF, 13^th in DEF, 15^th in margin

All of these teams are bad and have very few bright spots on their roster. Man, what a fall from grace for the Wolves.

[vikingfaithful]

Astute observations on each team in the NSIC. Maybe Augie will find some late season magic.

[Thunder]

Great read, a lot of interesting analysis. For obvious reasons, I have followed the NSIC less this year than probably any time in the last 20 or so years so it was interesting to read up on the league.

[wsuguy87]

Not going to dispute much in the analysis. Just weird to see WSU well behind UMD despite a 2 game sweep over them this year.

[Augieholic]

I think Winona has the highest ceiling of any NSIC team. Multiple playmakers, plenty of shooting, above average bigs.

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

Not going to dispute much in the analysis. Just weird to see WSU well behind UMD despite a 2 game sweep over them this year.

That's a fair assertion! When it comes to "Who do I trust most to win in the postseason?" I may be overvaluing Duluth's experience, compared to Winona's having almost an entirely new team this year.

[MrMustang]

Right now I think Moorhead is the team to beat. They are gonna be a tough out if they are healthy.

Next, despite their recents troubles and some of my posts (more just frustration than anything) is my Mustangs. They play hard and they play defense and that is a good recipe to win.

next group is Concordia and Winona and Duluth -- If Concodrdia is hot, they won't lose - they can be hot for a 3 game stretch and score 100 3 straight games. Winona is like the Mustangs -- they ahve the right recipe. Duluth - silimar long and play good defense.

[Moorhead123]

Good post as always.

Probably 8 teams that could realistically win NSIC tournament if things line up. All teams have some real talent and some weaknesses as well. Been very impressed with Msum holding things together without Price and Jacob Beeninga. Would be nice if they could get one or both back for the final push, but not sure how realistic that is or what kind of shape either guy would be in even if they came back. Should be a fun NSIC tournament as usual.