2025 Central Region Tournament

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

Warriors-Dragons IV was probably the closest it came to a Winona W, but it wasn't meant to be. I tend to agree that the matchup is bad for Winona, but I felt they didn't do themselves any favors by attacking things 1-on-1 most of the night. Their offense felt out-of-sync, and just 4 assists reflects that.

Man, it did not feel like Carson Johnson had 26 last night. Maybe through the conference tournament I've just gotten too used to those ridiculous off-the-dribble shots going in, so when they weren't falling as much in the first half it felt like Carson was in for a rough night. 2nd half was much better, and Beeninga & Price's driving for FTs helped take the pressure off him.

I haven't seen the full Concordia SP-Washburn game yet, but my early take is HO BOY Washburn is goooood. Feels like it'll take quite a lot for the Dragons to pull off one more to reach the Elite 8, but I'll dive further into the tape & the numbers to see if there's any glimmer of hope.

[wsuguy87]

Warriors-Dragons IV was probably the closest it came to a Winona W, but it wasn't meant to be. I tend to agree that the matchup is bad for Winona, but I felt they didn't do themselves any favors by attacking things 1-on-1 most of the night. Their offense felt out-of-sync, and just 4 assists reflects that.

Man, it did not feel like Carson Johnson had 26 last night. Maybe through the conference tournament I've just gotten too used to those ridiculous off-the-dribble shots going in, so when they weren't falling as much in the first half it felt like Carson was in for a rough night. 2nd half was much better, and Beeninga & Price's driving for FTs helped take the pressure off him.

I haven't seen the full Concordia SP-Washburn game yet, but my early take is HO BOY Washburn is goooood. Feels like it'll take quite a lot for the Dragons to pull off one more to reach the Elite 8, but I'll dive further into the tape & the numbers to see if there's any glimmer of hope.

Winona State was just outgunned by the Dragons. The Warriors needed another scorer to compete against the best of the best and MSUM is that. I said a few weeks ago, I think they will win the national title. I stand by that.

Great year for WSU. Completely rebuilt roster and they came together well. Defense carried them along way. Just not quite enough firepower.

[Btech#3]

Attended the Concordia SP-Washburn game last night. Very good ball game. It ended up a 16pt win for Washburn but the game was much closer than that. Impressed with Concordia SP. I think Washburn just had too many offensive weapons. They can score in bunches and it was too much to overcome for Concordia SP. The crowd in Lee Arena was incredible. I am not sure of the attendance but there were not very many open seats. Lee seats 4000 so it had to be close to that in attendance. Should be a great game on Tuesday night against MSUM.

[IceBoxDragon]

Warriors-Dragons IV was probably the closest it came to a Winona W, but it wasn't meant to be. I tend to agree that the matchup is bad for Winona, but I felt they didn't do themselves any favors by attacking things 1-on-1 most of the night. Their offense felt out-of-sync, and just 4 assists reflects that.

Man, it did not feel like Carson Johnson had 26 last night. Maybe through the conference tournament I've just gotten too used to those ridiculous off-the-dribble shots going in, so when they weren't falling as much in the first half it felt like Carson was in for a rough night. 2nd half was much better, and Beeninga & Price's driving for FTs helped take the pressure off him.

I haven't seen the full Concordia SP-Washburn game yet, but my early take is HO BOY Washburn is goooood. Feels like it'll take quite a lot for the Dragons to pull off one more to reach the Elite 8, but I'll dive further into the tape & the numbers to see if there's any glimmer of hope.

It's taken time for him to get going in both games so far. I think it's just growing pains for him in the national tournament for the first time.

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

(Apologies in advance for the length of this message; I just have a lot of thoughts.)

Alright, here goes my processing of how the Dragons could possibly get the win over Washburn tonight. Spoiler alert: it will be quite difficult.

I'll start by saying my assessment of Washburn is limited to a deep dive on their season-long numbers and watching their last two games. That said, this team seems to do pretty much everything right. They have a high-powered offense that always has at least 3 guys on the floor that can create (& make) their own shot. On defense they are active yet disciplined, protecting the paint while still contesting perimeter shots well. They play at a fast pace but can take guys off-the-dribble in the half-court, too.

MSUM does a lot of these things well, too. And it's inarguable that Tim Bergstraser has positioned his team well to vary their style of play in light of what a new team presents to them. MSUM can throw up to 5 All-Conference players on the court at once (Johnson-J. Beeninga-Price-L. Kinsey-Jennissen), and that ended up being their most-used 5 in the semifinal game vs. Winona. That kind of lineup gives them offensive variability between Johnson's yo-yo dribbling into step-back perimeter shots, PNRs with Kinsey & Jennissen, or Beeninga & Price driving in to get to the rim or get fouled. But it feels like they'll need all 5 of those guys to be on their A-game (and getting some contributions from Hastreiter/Wysocki/W. Kinsey would be a bonus).

Because a lot of what the Dragons love to do are things the Ichabods have plans for. The Dragons love to get to the free throw line (20.9 FTA/g, 20.3% of MSUM points come from FTs, 2nd in NSIC), and the Ichabods don't love to send guys there (12.5 FTA allowed/g, which would rank 1st in NSIC). The Dragons love to run the PNR with Jennissen to give him space to catch the ball high and finish at the rim. The Ichabods gave up just 27.5 paint points/g (would rank 2nd in NSIC), and bigs like Andrew Orr, Michael Keegan, and DIllon Claussen can recover well to rolling bigs & contest them at the rim. And the Dragons love to clear the offense out and let Carson go 1-on-1 with his defender, but that would be virtually impossible to justify against MIAA Defensive Player of the Year Jacob Hanna. (Maybe the Dragons can get switches onto Washburn bigs, but I would have to believe Brett Ballard will insist that Hanna fight through all possible screens.) And on defense, the Dragons love to switch everything & use their long arms to prevent opposing guards from firing up 3s (allowing just 19.3 3-point attempts/g, fewest in NSIC). But Washburn isn't the most upchuck-y team, launching a pretty average 23.1 triples/g.

And even in the few areas that Washburn leaves the door open for certain teams to take advantage of, MSUM is not necessarily positioned as that team. 1) Washburn crashes the offensive glass at an insane rate, with a 35.4 OREB% (would rank 1st in NSIC). By sending multiple guys to crash the O-boards, a speedy team could take advantage of the floor imbalance and have their guards jet off for fastbreak opportunities (like Central Oklahoma did in the MIAA tourney with 23 fast break points, or Antwan Kimmons did in the regional semi). But MSUM doesn't do that; just 7.6% of their points come from the break (13th in NSIC), and Bergstraser often calls for them to hold back in semi-transition. 2) Washburn commits a fair amount of turnovers, 11.6/g (would rank 10th in NSIC). And yet, MSUM forced the least amount of turnovers/g in the NSIC, just 8.5/g.

The one exception to this ^ seems to be how Washburn defends the 3. They defend an average of 23.1 3PA/g, which would've been the 4th-most in the NSIC. While MSUM's season-long average was just 18.5 3PA/g, they've shown a willingness to shoot 23 or more longballs in 7 of their games the last two months. The irony of it all is that despite the low attempt numbers, MSUM drains 3s at the best rate in the NSIC 38.7%. So I would bet on this being a focal point tonight: MSUM will try to launch the 3s that Washburn allows to them and hope that 40+% of them go in. (That is if Washburn allows them; they could very easily shift their defensive priorities for this game to challenge MSUM to drive the lane and beat them at the rim/free throw line.)

In the 3 games Washburn lost this year, there wasn't one consistent issue at the heart of all 3 games. Against Arkansas-Fort Smith, they gave up 13 made 3s, had 16 turnovers, and only achieved 30 paint points. Against Northeastern St, they gave up 54 paint points to the Riverhawks. And against Central Oklahoma, they faced some red-shot scoring mostly coming from fast break opportunities. I feel like a Dragon win would need to borrow mostly from those first two games: try to generate some interior points through Jennissen's relative size advantage, and hope that enough of those looks allow for space on your perimeter to fire up lots of 3s. On defense, it would obviously help if they could cause some turnovers with their long arms, but I'll settle for walling off the paint & attacking the defensive boards to ensure the Ichabods get as few clean-and-easy OREBs as possible. If you're already not planning to run the break, might as well keep all your guys back to battle on the glass and make it a slow, methodical game where possessions are at a premium.

So you could surmise that my hunch is that Washburn is gonna win this game, likely in the 8-12 point range. But we'll see how much fight the Dragons have against a home crowd and a national champion-caliber team.

[Btech#3]

Mark Emmert's Burner--I think your analysis is a pretty thorough and spot on take. One thing that wasn't mentioned was the depth. Washburn has quality depth off the bench. Not sure how the bench minutes and scoring compare between the two teams but I think it will be a physical game so bench strength could be a big factor. Also, the crowd and the homecourt will be a factor as well. How has MSUM fared on the road this year and have they run into many hostile environments? This will also be a factor. One last point. Rebounding will also be a huge key. With MSUM's height, they may have the edge and rebounding is always a big key in games like this especially early when nerves are a factor. Anyway, I will be there and looking forward to seeing a great game. Good luck to MSUM and go Bods!

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

Mark Emmert's Burner--I think your analysis is a pretty thorough and spot on take. One thing that wasn't mentioned was the depth. Washburn has quality depth off the bench. Not sure how the bench minutes and scoring compare between the two teams but I think it will be a physical game so bench strength could be a big factor. Also, the crowd and the homecourt will be a factor as well. How has MSUM fared on the road this year and have they run into many hostile environments? This will also be a factor. One last point. Rebounding will also be a huge key. With MSUM's height, they may have the edge and rebounding is always a big key in games like this especially early when nerves are a factor. Anyway, I will be there and looking forward to seeing a great game. Good luck to MSUM and go Bods!

Yeah, I would say depth is a strength for both teams. MSUM's depth came at them in an atypical way, as the two guys you would've said were their best players pre-season are now the 6th & 7th men only because their months-long injuries created a starting 5 of younger guys that really gelled. So it's very strange that MSUM has two All-Conference guards coming off their bench, though I expect them to play more minutes than Hastreiter & Wysocki tonight. So MSUM can go 8-deep comfortably, and that seems to be what Washburn is comfortable with, too.

MSUM did very well in road games at Duluth & at Concordia St. Paul late in the season, so I think they can handle that fine (but also why I expect Beeninga & Price to play more than Hasteiter & Wysocki, who have less experience).

I would say the numbers indicate Washburn has the edge if your TREB% was 57.2% and offensive rebounding especially is strong. But if the Dragons really commit to the defensive glass, that's one way of leveraging your size in a game where every extra possession matters.

[Purple Mav Man]

MSUM did very well in road games at Duluth & at Concordia St. Paul late in the season, so I think they can handle that fine (but also why I expect Beeninga & Price to play more than Hasteiter & Wysocki, who have less experience).

Those were definitely road games, but nowhere near the atmosphere that’ll be in play at Washburn tonight. Thats mot to say Moorhead can’t handle it by any means, just a different animal in Duluth or St Paul than Washburn.
Agree that it’ll be heavier towards Beeninga and Price. They’ll lean on the experience most likely.

[IceBoxDragon]

The MSUM road record in the NSIC, for reference, is 8-3. That included road wins at UMary, Bemidji State, St. Cloud State, Winona State, Northern State, Minot State, Minnesota Duluth and Concordia-St. Paul. Losses were at Southwest Minnesota State, Minnesota State Mankato and Sioux Falls. They also defeated Black Hills State on the road in the non-con.

In neutral site games, the Dragons are 9-1. Their one loss was to Michigan Tech in Duluth as part of the St. Louis County Basketball Classic. Regular season wins included two in the Central Region Challenge, one against South Dakota Mines in the East-West Challenge and one against Northern Michigan in the St. Louis Classic. In the post season they've won 5 neutral site games.

Also to note, the Dragons lost an exhibition road game to North Dakota State, 67-63.

[Augieholic]

I'm going to miss this Washburn announcer, he's fantastic

[IceBoxDragon]

Washburn is as good as advertised, starting to feel like this one might already be over.

[Augieholic]

Hot take: Washburn is the best D2 team I've seen all season

[Purple Mav Man]

47-41 in a central regional final. That has to be the final score, right?

[IceBoxDragon]

Feels like it’s the end of a post-covid era for MSUM that was highlighted by Lorenzo McGhee, Gavin Baumgartner, Dane Zimmer, Jamir Price and Jacob Beeninga. Five trips to the NCAA tournament and three NSIC tournament titles made for some really great moments.

The major stain on their record is falling short in the regional every time. Shame they were never able to get over that hump and still haven’t since 2015. Even then that 2015 team was fortunate to avoid Augustana, too.

[Alfred33]

Washburn looked great tonight. I think their announcer was jacked up on Mt. Dew!