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Just over 24 hours until things tip off in Topeka! Here are the things I'll be watching for in 3 of the 4 games tomorrow...
12:00pm - (6) SMSU vs. (3) Winona St - the first of two NSIC tourney quarterfinal rematches. SMSU just has not been able to get their usual paint points against this team. In 3 games against the Warriors, the Mustangs averaged a paltry 23.3 paint points/g, well below their season average of 35.0 (3rd in NSIC) and even below Winona's NSIC-leading average of allowing just 26.9 paint points/g. So yes, this is something Winona does very well, but it's still surprising to me that a team that prioritizes paint points can't get above Winona's defensive average against everybody. I'll be curious if Jakob Braaten & Aeron Stevens try to do more backing-down in the post, but Winona makes that so hard with their very active hands on dig-ins. This might just be a bad match-up for the 'Stangs.
2:30pm - (7) Fort Hays St. vs. (2) MSUM - I haven't seen Fort Hays play yet this year, so this analysis is mostly based off of what I can glean from their team & individual stats. Seems that Kaleb Hammeke does most of the damage for the Tigers, scoring at all 3 levels. Recently the Dragons have been sicking the long-armed Shaun Wysocki on opposing point guards (also in an attempt to save Carson Johnson's energy in covering a less-active perimeter player). I would guess they may start with that, but if Hammeke proves too quick for Wysocki they won't hesitate to put the fleet-footed Jacob Beeninga on him. I also noticed that Fort Hays plays with a positively sloth-like pace at just 62.1 possessions/g, much slower than anyone else in the NSIC. The Dragons also play pretty slow at just 67.3, and I don't foresee Bergstraser trying to ramp that up, so expect this game to be languid & surgical.
But most of all, this appears to be the best defense the Dragons have faced all season. The Tigers' 59.6 scoring defense is not just because of lower possessions: their 39.8% defensive FG% and 31.3% defensive 3PT% would've been 1st and 2nd in the NSIC, respectively. They only give up 13.8 FTA/g, and when the Dragons are used to shooting 20.9 FTA/g, it will be interesting to monitor their offensive approach.
5:30pm - (8) Harding vs. (1) Washburn - I haven't seen either of these teams play yet, so I'll withhold analysis here. I'll just say I trust Washburn to not have a cold shooting night again like they did against Central Oklahoma.
8:00pm - (5) Concordia SP vs. (4) Minot St - the second of the NSIC quarterfinal rematches. Expect Antwan Kimmons to be a full battering ram tomorrow. He had his worst game of the season in the regular season matchup vs. Minot, but bounced back to have 35 points on 14-25 shooting in the NSIC tourney game. Minot will likely deploy Ayouba Berthe on him again, and maybe surrender less help so that he can't kick to outside shooters like Marcus Skeete & Ben Kopetzki. Oddly, CSP lost in a game that Caleb Van De Griend only played 7 first-half minutes due to foul trouble. He still got his 17 & 13 by the end of the game, though, so that's still going to be their greatest consideration. Maybe they'll let Jappanah Kellogg take more of the duties against him this time instead of Cade Meyer? I think either way you go CVDG is bound to get 3-6 OREBs that just kill you, but you gotta try something and just hope guys like Berthe or Jaxon Gunville don't get hot against you.
12:00pm - (6) SMSU vs. (3) Winona St - the first of two NSIC tourney quarterfinal rematches. SMSU just has not been able to get their usual paint points against this team. In 3 games against the Warriors, the Mustangs averaged a paltry 23.3 paint points/g, well below their season average of 35.0 (3rd in NSIC) and even below Winona's NSIC-leading average of allowing just 26.9 paint points/g. So yes, this is something Winona does very well, but it's still surprising to me that a team that prioritizes paint points can't get above Winona's defensive average against everybody. I'll be curious if Jakob Braaten & Aeron Stevens try to do more backing-down in the post, but Winona makes that so hard with their very active hands on dig-ins. This might just be a bad match-up for the 'Stangs.
2:30pm - (7) Fort Hays St. vs. (2) MSUM - I haven't seen Fort Hays play yet this year, so this analysis is mostly based off of what I can glean from their team & individual stats. Seems that Kaleb Hammeke does most of the damage for the Tigers, scoring at all 3 levels. Recently the Dragons have been sicking the long-armed Shaun Wysocki on opposing point guards (also in an attempt to save Carson Johnson's energy in covering a less-active perimeter player). I would guess they may start with that, but if Hammeke proves too quick for Wysocki they won't hesitate to put the fleet-footed Jacob Beeninga on him. I also noticed that Fort Hays plays with a positively sloth-like pace at just 62.1 possessions/g, much slower than anyone else in the NSIC. The Dragons also play pretty slow at just 67.3, and I don't foresee Bergstraser trying to ramp that up, so expect this game to be languid & surgical.
But most of all, this appears to be the best defense the Dragons have faced all season. The Tigers' 59.6 scoring defense is not just because of lower possessions: their 39.8% defensive FG% and 31.3% defensive 3PT% would've been 1st and 2nd in the NSIC, respectively. They only give up 13.8 FTA/g, and when the Dragons are used to shooting 20.9 FTA/g, it will be interesting to monitor their offensive approach.
5:30pm - (8) Harding vs. (1) Washburn - I haven't seen either of these teams play yet, so I'll withhold analysis here. I'll just say I trust Washburn to not have a cold shooting night again like they did against Central Oklahoma.
8:00pm - (5) Concordia SP vs. (4) Minot St - the second of the NSIC quarterfinal rematches. Expect Antwan Kimmons to be a full battering ram tomorrow. He had his worst game of the season in the regular season matchup vs. Minot, but bounced back to have 35 points on 14-25 shooting in the NSIC tourney game. Minot will likely deploy Ayouba Berthe on him again, and maybe surrender less help so that he can't kick to outside shooters like Marcus Skeete & Ben Kopetzki. Oddly, CSP lost in a game that Caleb Van De Griend only played 7 first-half minutes due to foul trouble. He still got his 17 & 13 by the end of the game, though, so that's still going to be their greatest consideration. Maybe they'll let Jappanah Kellogg take more of the duties against him this time instead of Cade Meyer? I think either way you go CVDG is bound to get 3-6 OREBs that just kill you, but you gotta try something and just hope guys like Berthe or Jaxon Gunville don't get hot against you.
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