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Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
Interested to see what these numbers look like after today's games.
Interested to see what these numbers look like after today's games.
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Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
I'll get to it first thing Monday morning. Tonight's results wont be posted until very late and I will be busy all day tomorrow. I'm guessing eagles down to 7th.Originally posted by DUPanther View PostComment
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Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
3 Findlay Midwest GMAC 20-3 86.96% 16.70 54.82% 50.62% 19-3 86.36% 5 Ferris State Midwest GLIAC 24-1 96.00% 16.52 47.30% 51.45% 22-1 95.65% 9 Bellarmine Midwest GLVC 19-2 90.48% 16.14 49.55% 51.03% 18-2 90.00% 41 Lake Superior State Midwest GLIAC 17-6 73.91% 14.30 49.09% 51.32% 15-6 71.43% 48 Drury Midwest GLVC 15-4 78.95% 14.11 43.84% 50.08% 14-4 77.78% 67 Hillsdale Midwest GMAC 18-6 75.00% 13.79 47.31% 51.79% 18-6 75.00% 69 Southern Indiana Midwest GLVC 16-7 69.57% 13.78 52.91% 50.23% 15-5 75.00% 74 Malone Midwest GMAC 16-7 69.57% 13.57 49.61% 50.44% 16-7 69.57% 81 Walsh Midwest GMAC 13-6 68.42% 13.32 48.10% 51.36% 13-6 68.42% 95 Ashland Midwest GLIAC 14-8 63.64% 12.86 48.67% 49.35% 14-8 63.64% 97 Alderson Broaddus Midwest GMAC 16-8 66.67% 12.79 45.08% 51.10% 16-8 66.67% 99 Truman State Midwest GLVC 14-8 63.64% 12.73 46.62% 50.65% 14-8 63.64% 102 Indianapolis Midwest GLVC 15-7 68.18% 12.55 46.78% 50.64% 15-6 71.43% 104 Maryville Midwest GLVC 14-7 66.67% 12.48 43.92% 50.71% 14-7 66.67% 108 William Jewell Midwest GLVC 14-6 70.00% 12.40 37.93% 50.91% 14-6 70.00% 113 Northern Michigan Midwest GLIAC 14-9 60.87% 12.30 45.18% 51.18% 13-8 61.90% 119 Wayne State (Mich.) Midwest GLIAC 12-8 60.00% 12.20 47.05% 50.06% 12-8 60.00% 149 Ohio Dominican Midwest GMAC 12-10 54.55% 11.50 44.39% 52.09% 12-10 54.55% 155 Lewis Midwest GLVC 10-13 43.48% 11.35 56.58% 48.24% 10-13 43.48% 157 Kentucky Wesleyan Midwest GMAC 14-13 51.85% 11.30 49.99% 50.95% 13-13 50.00% 158 Michigan Tech Midwest GLIAC 13-10 56.52% 11.26 43.12% 51.46% 13-10 56.52% 172 Lake Erie Midwest GMAC 10-12 45.45% 11.09 52.05% 50.11% 9-12 42.86% 183 Missouri-St. Louis Midwest GLVC 9-11 45.00% 10.80 50.38% 49.35% 9-11 45.00% 183 Cedarville Midwest GMAC 8-12 40.00% 10.80 53.78% 49.89% 8-12 40.00% 198 Illinois Springfield Midwest GLVC 8-10 44.44% 10.56 48.52% 48.88% 8-10 44.44% 205 Saginaw Valley State Midwest GLIAC 7-13 35.00% 10.40 57.35% 49.02% 7-13 35.00% 212 Northwood Midwest GLIAC 8-15 34.78% 10.17 56.57% 49.64% 8-15 34.78% 213 Rockhurst Midwest GLVC 9-12 42.86% 10.14 46.39% 49.41% 9-12 42.86% 218 Grand Valley State Midwest GLIAC 8-12 40.00% 10.05 47.33% 49.78% 8-10 44.44% 234 Oakland City Midwest IND 2-2 50.00% 9.50 33.13% 50.39% 2-0 100.00% 237 Davenport Midwest GLIAC 7-13 35.00% 9.40 49.44% 48.96% 6-12 33.33% 246 Wisconsin-Parkside Midwest GLVC 7-14 33.33% 9.10 50.26% 49.62% 7-12 36.84% 268 Davis & Elkins Midwest GMAC 5-16 23.81% 8.62 51.18% 49.43% 5-16 23.81% 275 Tiffin Midwest GLIAC 5-17 22.73% 8.32 51.53% 48.46% 5-17 22.73% 285 Trevecca Nazarene Midwest GMAC 4-20 16.67% 8.17 56.68% 48.99% 4-20 16.67% 291 Salem International Midwest IND 5-16 23.81% 7.71 44.99% 48.47% 5-14 26.32% 294 Quincy Midwest GLVC 4-17 19.05% 7.62 52.25% 49.36% 4-17 19.05% 295 McKendree Midwest GLVC 4-13 23.53% 7.53 49.25% 48.99% 4-13 23.53% 300 Ohio Valley Midwest GMAC 2-18 10.00% 7.05 54.49% 49.38% 2-18 10.00% 305 Purdue Northwest Midwest GLIAC 1-22 4.35% 6.57 53.69% 46.88% 1-22 4.35% 306 Missouri S&T Midwest GLVC 0-18 0.00% 6.50 59.47% 46.52% 0-16 0.00% Comment
Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
The last two data sheets really point out the vagaries of the PI. Findlay played no games between the last two reports and their PI went up significantly. Apparently they had a couple of opponents improve their bracket. Bellarmine got a road win against a 50-75% team and their PI did not improve as much as UF's.Comment
Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
schnautza does not pull these numbers out of a hat.Comment
Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
100% due to bracket creep.Originally posted by Knightmoves View Post
Hillsdale made it to 75%, so any GMAC that's played them twice got 6 more points (or 3 if they've only played them once).
McKendree went under 25% so all GLVC teams that have played them lost at least 3 points, and 6 if you've played them twice.
There may be others, those are just the ones that stood out.Comment
Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
Actually, Findlay played Lake Erie Thursday the 8th.Originally posted by Knightmoves View PostComment
Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
Teams that are currently within two games of jumping up or down a tier (and who they affect)...note: I'm not looking ahead at schedules to see who meets in the future.
One more win:
LSSU (Findlay, Ferris x2, USI, Ashland x2, AB)
McKendree (Bellarmine, Drury, USI, Truman)
Davis & Elkins (Findlay, Hillsdale, Malone x2, Walsh x2, AB x2)
Tiffin (Ferris x2, LSSU x2, Ashland x2)
MSU Moorhead (Drury)
Lincoln MO (Drury, Truman)
Two more wins:
UMSL (Ferris, Bellarmine, Drury, USI, Truman)
Quincy (Ferris, Bellarmine, USI, Truman)
IL-Springfield (Bellarmine, Drury, Hillsdale, USI, Malone)
Lake Erie (Findlay x2, Hillsdale x2, Malone, Walsh, Ashland, AB x2)
Central State (Malone)
Bluefield State (Walsh, AB)
One more loss:
Hillsdale (Findlay, Ferris, USI, Malone x2, Walsh x2, AB)
Indiana PA (Findlay, Ferris)
Fairmont State (Findlay)
Glenville St (AB)
Bowie St (AB)
Concord (AB)
Lindenwood (Truman)
Two more losses:
Kentucky Wesleyan (Findlay x2, LSSU, Hillsdale x2, USI, Malone x2, Walsh x2, AB)
Drury (Bellarmine, USI, Truman x2)
St Thomas Aquinas (Findlay, Ferris)
Le Moyne (Bellarmine)
West Virginia State (Malone)Comment
Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
Based on that, it looks like Drury has a lot of potential to make a sudden jump up in the rankings if their past opponents can win more. At the moment, a lot can happen for Findlay and Ferris in either direction. GLVC teams need to be rooting for McKendree to give them a little boost.Comment
Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
I did not say or imply that he did. I have a 100% understanding of how the PI is determined, it is not Schnautza's index, it is completely objective and created by the NCAA. Schnautza has put the calculation in a spread sheet, assuming there is no error in the data, the numbers are objective and correct.Originally posted by alumnifan View Post
The phenomana that we are calling bracket creep (I think I first applied it to this context but is borrowed from income tax analysis) illustrates a weakness in the PI, which is shown in the last two reports by Schnautza. None of this is a criticism of any person or team. Frankly I think there is a decent subjective argument that Findlay has the best resume in the region.Comment
Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
I know this is not relevant, but Findlay has not lost this season with their full starting lineup. They need to stay healthy to make a run.Originally posted by Knightmoves View PostComment
Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
I am guessing that Findlay is #3 tomorrow, but if I were doing the rankings, they'd be #1. A one point loss to Ferris at Ferris would be considered a win by an oddsmaker... The loss without Sullivan could be completely ignored. I also think that of the top three in the region, Findlay is the most likely to win out.That is my opinion, but the chase for #1 is still open to any of the top three .Originally posted by GMAC2018 View PostComment
Re: Performance Indicators 2017-18
Now that regional rankings are out, here is the updated PI with RANKED records noted. Remember, once ranked, always ranked.
5 Findlay Midwest GMAC 21-3 87.50% 16.38 54.07% 50.80% 20-3 86.96% 7-3 70.0% 7 Ferris State Midwest GLIAC 24-1 96.00% 16.28 47.06% 51.47% 22-1 95.65% 5-1 83.3% 9 Bellarmine Midwest GLVC 19-2 90.48% 16.14 49.55% 51.03% 18-2 90.00% 5-1 83.3% 44 Lake Superior State Midwest GLIAC 17-6 73.91% 14.30 49.03% 51.35% 15-6 71.43% 2-2 50.0% 46 Drury Midwest GLVC 15-4 78.95% 14.26 44.13% 50.06% 14-4 77.78% 1-2 33.3% 70 Southern Indiana Midwest GLVC 16-7 69.57% 13.65 52.76% 50.25% 15-5 75.00% 4-5 44.4% 75 Hillsdale Midwest GMAC 18-7 72.00% 13.56 47.73% 51.44% 18-7 72.00% 3-4 42.9% 81 Malone Midwest GMAC 16-7 69.57% 13.30 49.37% 50.54% 16-7 69.57% 2-4 33.3% 86 Walsh Midwest GMAC 14-6 70.00% 13.05 45.91% 51.67% 14-6 70.00% 2-3 40.0% 93 Ashland Midwest GLIAC 14-8 63.64% 12.86 48.76% 49.38% 14-8 63.64% 1-4 20.0% 97 Truman State Midwest GLVC 14-8 63.64% 12.73 46.35% 50.78% 14-8 63.64% 1-5 16.7% 100 Alderson Broaddus Midwest GMAC 16-8 66.67% 12.67 45.07% 51.01% 16-8 66.67% 2-5 28.6% 102 William Jewell Midwest GLVC 14-6 70.00% 12.55 38.05% 50.89% 14-6 70.00% 0-2 0.0% 103 Indianapolis Midwest GLVC 15-7 68.18% 12.55 46.78% 50.62% 15-6 71.43% 2-3 40.0% 106 Maryville Midwest GLVC 14-7 66.67% 12.48 43.83% 50.75% 14-7 66.67% 0-5 0.0% 112 Northern Michigan Midwest GLIAC 14-9 60.87% 12.30 45.24% 51.21% 13-8 61.90% 1-3 25.0% 120 Wayne State (Mich.) Midwest GLIAC 12-8 60.00% 12.20 47.05% 50.06% 12-8 60.00% 1-2 33.3% 144 Ohio Dominican Midwest GMAC 13-10 56.52% 11.65 45.37% 51.95% 13-10 56.52% 2-4 33.3% 157 Michigan Tech Midwest GLIAC 13-10 56.52% 11.26 43.12% 51.44% 13-10 56.52% 0-3 0.0% 163 Lewis Midwest GLVC 10-13 43.48% 11.22 56.54% 48.25% 10-13 43.48% 1-6 14.3% 170 Kentucky Wesleyan Midwest GMAC 14-13 51.85% 11.07 50.06% 50.89% 13-13 50.00% 1-9 10.0% 182 Lake Erie Midwest GMAC 10-12 45.45% 10.82 51.85% 50.14% 9-12 42.86% 2-5 28.6% 192 Missouri-St. Louis Midwest GLVC 9-11 45.00% 10.65 50.27% 49.33% 9-11 45.00% 0-6 0.0% 198 Cedarville Midwest GMAC 8-13 38.10% 10.52 55.36% 50.07% 8-13 38.10% 2-6 25.0% 204 Illinois Springfield Midwest GLVC 8-10 44.44% 10.39 48.35% 48.92% 8-10 44.44% 2-4 33.3% 210 Saginaw Valley State Midwest GLIAC 7-13 35.00% 10.25 57.20% 49.03% 7-13 35.00% 0-7 0.0% 214 Northwood Midwest GLIAC 8-15 34.78% 10.17 56.58% 49.55% 8-15 34.78% 2-6 25.0% 215 Rockhurst Midwest GLVC 9-12 42.86% 10.14 46.38% 49.35% 9-12 42.86% 1-3 25.0% 219 Grand Valley State Midwest GLIAC 8-12 40.00% 10.05 47.33% 49.75% 8-10 44.44% 1-2 33.3% 236 Oakland City Midwest IND 2-2 50.00% 9.50 33.13% 50.43% 2-0 100.00% 0-0 0.0% 237 Davenport Midwest GLIAC 7-13 35.00% 9.40 49.51% 49.03% 6-12 33.33% 1-3 25.0% 250 Wisconsin-Parkside Midwest GLVC 7-14 33.33% 9.10 50.26% 49.59% 7-12 36.84% 1-4 20.0% 273 Davis & Elkins Midwest GMAC 5-16 23.81% 8.48 51.17% 49.35% 5-16 23.81% 0-7 0.0% 276 Tiffin Midwest GLIAC 5-17 22.73% 8.32 51.62% 48.51% 5-17 22.73% 0-5 0.0% 288 Trevecca Nazarene Midwest GMAC 4-20 16.67% 7.92 56.59% 48.99% 4-20 16.67% 1-7 12.5% 290 Salem International Midwest IND 5-16 23.81% 7.86 45.20% 48.53% 5-14 26.32% 0-5 0.0% 296 Quincy Midwest GLVC 4-17 19.05% 7.62 52.06% 49.39% 4-17 19.05% 0-6 0.0% 297 McKendree Midwest GLVC 4-13 23.53% 7.53 49.25% 48.94% 4-13 23.53% 1-3 25.0% 302 Ohio Valley Midwest GMAC 2-19 9.52% 6.86 55.29% 49.19% 2-19 9.52% 0-7 0.0% 304 Missouri S&T Midwest GLVC 0-18 0.00% 6.67 59.79% 46.46% 0-16 0.00% 0-5 0.0% 306 Purdue Northwest Midwest GLIAC 1-22 4.35% 6.43 53.65% 46.93% 1-22 4.35% 0-3 0.0% Comment
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