Rankings

[KnightStalker]

Re: Rankings

I've gotten the feeling that they intentionally rotate a couple teams thru the last spots to increase the number of ranked teams (once ranked, always ranked), but I may just be imagining that.

I think possible ranked teams (not in top 10 of PI presently) are from the GLVC: Indy, Lewis and a very slight chance for Rockhurst if they beat Indy on the road Saturday. From the GLIAC: Ashland, Michigan Tech, Saginaw and Walsh (the last two would only make it in the last ranking if they don't have another loss in the regular season.)

[Knightmoves]

Re: Rankings

As much as I'd not like to, I think Indianapolis needs to be included as a bubble team - gives USI one more loss unfortunately.

I've said this before, but I really don't think losses against ranked teams should count against you, other than in the same way any loss counts against you. If a team is 2-3 against ranked teams, that is still better than being 1-1 against ranked teams, otherwise you are penalizing someone for playing a better schedule. The real question is how many wins against ranked teams does the team have?

The interesting thing about the record against ranked teams criteria is that it actually makes the weekly regional poll substantive in nature. The poll has a real effect on the ultimate outcome, although it may be relatively minor. Not sure there are any other polls to which that applies.

[KnightStalker]

Re: Rankings

I've said this before, but I really don't think losses against ranked teams should count against you, other than in the same way any loss counts against you. If a team is 2-3 against ranked teams, that is still better than being 1-1 against ranked teams, otherwise you are penalizing someone for playing a better schedule. The real question is how many wins against ranked teams does the team have?

Exactly, that's why a team like Rockhurst might get some looks from the committee. They have wins over two teams that will be definitely ranked-Central Missouri and Parkside. The inverse is true though its not necessarily the number of losses a team has but how many are bad losses.

[schnautza]

Re: Rankings

Interestingly, in checking out Massey today, Ferris gained 2 spots and USI dropped 1. I suppose it's better to lose on your home court than to win on the road!

It just makes me wonder how their formula works...in the PI I can usually pick out the irregularities like that with good reasoning...but this one is a head-scratcher to me.

EDIT: I guess the delta column doesn't necessarily reflect change as of yesterday...maybe change within the past week?

[kwcpantherfan]

Re: Rankings

Interestingly, in checking out Massey today, Ferris gained 2 spots and USI dropped 1. I suppose it's better to lose on your home court than to win on the road!

It just makes me wonder how their formula works...in the PI I can usually pick out the irregularities like that with good reasoning...but this one is a head-scratcher to me.

EDIT: I guess the delta column doesn't necessarily reflect change as of yesterday...maybe change within the past week?

Yes, I think the "big" update happens every Monday morning and the delta column reflects change since that update, even though the rankings do in fact fluctuate daily based on recent results.

[Knightmoves]

Re: Rankings

This week's regional ranking prognosis:
1. BU
2. USI
3. FSU
4. KWC
5. UF
6. Parkside
7. Quincy
8. TSU
9. LSSU
10. Lewis

[KnightStalker]

Re: Rankings

This week's regional ranking prognosis:
1. BU
2. USI
3. FSU
4. KWC
5. UF
6. Parkside
7. Quincy
8. TSU
9. LSSU
10. Lewis

Pretty much agree with that prognostication. As close as this season has been, I think there really is only a few things to be decided. I think that top 7 is pretty set to make it (unless there is more than one upset winner of a conference tourney), the order could change somewhat, especially at the top. The big fight is for the last spot. At least four teams have a fighting shot at it without having to win a conference tourney. TSU, LSSU, Lewis and Indy, I think have a chance at it. Indy might not be ranked this week but they have a good shot of doing it on their own with home games against Lewis and Parkside.

[schnautza]

Re: Rankings

Regional rankings come out tomorrow, right? Here's my last iteration before the first ranking come out. My top-10 prediction lines up with the last column here.

1	3 Bellarmine	3 Bellarmine	8 Southern Indiana	7 Bellarmine	1.25 Bellarmine
2	4 Southern Indiana	6 Ferris State	9 Bellarmine	9 Southern Indiana	2.00 Southern Indiana
3	9 Ferris State	7 Southern Indiana	18 Ferris State	13 Ferris State	2.75 Ferris State
4	25 Kentucky Wesleyan	12 Kentucky Wesleyan	24 Kentucky Wesleyan	22 Kentucky Wesleyan	4.00 Kentucky Wesleyan
5	36 Quincy	24 Findlay	35 Findlay	31 Findlay	5.25 Findlay
6	42 Findlay	34 Lake Superior State	37 Wisconsin-Parkside	40 Lake Superior State	6.75 Wisconsin-Parkside
7	42 Wisconsin-Parkside	35 Wisconsin-Parkside	44 Quincy	53 Wayne State (Mich.)	7.25 Quincy
8	42 Truman State	38 Quincy	60 Truman State	63 Wisconsin-Parkside	7.75 Lake Superior State
9	56 Wayne State (Mich.)	41 Wayne State (Mich.)	66 Lake Superior State	64 Quincy	9.00 Truman State
10	64 Lake Superior State	51 Truman State	73 Lewis	75 Michigan Tech	10.00 Wayne State (Mich.)
11	80 Ashland	53 Ashland	75 Ashland	78 Ashland	11.00 Ashland
12	92 Indianapolis	56 Michigan Tech	80 Indianapolis	79 Truman State	13.25 Lewis
13	93 Lewis	60 Indianapolis	80 Hillsdale	87 Hillsdale	13.25 Indianapolis
14	95 Michigan Tech	65 Grand Valley State	84 Drury	89 Lewis	13.75 Michigan Tech
15	103 Hillsdale	68 Hillsdale	88 Wayne State (Mich.)	94 Saginaw Valley State	13.75 Hillsdale
16	105 Saginaw Valley State	74 Lewis	91 Grand Valley State	95 Indianapolis	16.25 Saginaw Valley State
17	113 Rockhurst	78 Saginaw Valley State	94 Rockhurst	97 Grand Valley State	16.50 Grand Valley State
18	114 Drury	86 Walsh	94 Saginaw Valley State	109 Walsh	18.00 Drury
19	117 Grand Valley State	104 Ohio Dominican	99 Walsh	110 Drury	18.75 Rockhurst
20	123 Walsh	106 Rockhurst	99 Michigan Tech	135 Ohio Dominican	18.75 Walsh
21	134 Ohio Dominican	113 Drury	136 Ohio Dominican	139 Rockhurst	20.25 Ohio Dominican
22	189 Alderson Broaddus	147 Northern Michigan	170 Missouri-St. Louis	189 Northern Michigan	24.00 Northern Michigan
23	194 Missouri S&T	169 Tiffin	170 Missouri S&T	192 Tiffin	24.25 Tiffin
24	205 Malone	193 Missouri S&T	189 Northern Michigan	195 Davis & Elkins	24.25 Missouri S&T
25	216 Missouri-St. Louis	194 Missouri-St. Louis	204 Tiffin	209 Missouri-St. Louis	24.25 Missouri-St. Louis
26	218 Tiffin	207 Davis & Elkins	209 William Jewell	219 Alderson Broaddus	25.50 Alderson Broaddus
27	221 Davis & Elkins	217 Alderson Broaddus	223 Alderson Broaddus	220 Cedarville	26.50 Davis & Elkins
28	229 Northern Michigan	227 Northwood	225 Saint Joseph's	221 Missouri S&T	29.25 Malone
29	239 Oakland City	234 Lake Erie	238 Davis & Elkins	227 Malone	29.75 Cedarville
30	245 Saint Joseph's	235 Cedarville	242 Northwood	242 McKendree	30.00 William Jewell
31	246 Cedarville	241 William Jewell	245 Cedarville	253 Illinois Springfield	31.25 Saint Joseph's
32	246 William Jewell	246 Malone	247 Malone	254 William Jewell	31.50 Northwood
33	264 Northwood	248 Saint Joseph's	252 McKendree	259 Lake Erie	33.25 McKendree
34	273 Illinois Springfield	251 Illinois Springfield	256 Illinois Springfield	265 Saint Joseph's	33.25 Lake Erie
35	276 McKendree	266 McKendree	265 Lake Erie	269 Northwood	33.25 Illinois Springfield
36	277 Lake Erie	278 Maryville	267 Maryville	276 Maryville	35.75 Oakland City
37	278 Trevecca Nazarene	283 Trevecca Nazarene	273 Trevecca Nazarene	284 Trevecca Nazarene	36.50 Maryville
38	295 Maryville	312 Oakland City	284 Oakland City	309 Oakland City	37.00 Trevecca Nazarene
39	297 Ohio Valley	315 Ohio Valley	306 Ohio Valley	314 Salem International	39.25 Ohio Valley
40	307 Salem International	316 Salem International	311 Salem International	316 Ohio Valley	39.75 Salem International

[KnightStalker]

Re: Rankings

I am thinking the regional rankings will be closer to the PI instead of your average here for the top 8 at least. I do think Lewis and Indy will get more respect than Wayne or Ashland on the list with at least one of them making the top 10 with LSSU.

[Knightmoves]

Re: Rankings

Regardless of the ranking today, Lewis or Indy look like they can still make the NCAA, even without winning the conf. tournament. One of is going to have to stand up and win out their last three games. They both have played better toward the end of the season. Based on their games against BU, I like Indy's chances.

I don't know if it was a fluke, but Lewis did not look any better than Maryville, McKendree, etc when they played BU. Maybe it was simply BU's best performance of the year.

[EagleWhip]

Re: Rankings

Regardless of the ranking today, Lewis or Indy look like they can still make the NCAA, even without winning the conf. tournament. One of is going to have to stand up and win out their last three games. They both have played better toward the end of the season. Based on their games against BU, I like Indy's chances.

I don't know if it was a fluke, but Lewis did not look any better than Maryville, McKendree, etc when they played BU. Maybe it was simply BU's best performance of the year.

I thought BU played very well when they dismantled my Eagles at the Pac. In fact, I was shocked with the play of the BU point guard who outplayed our guards that day. Having seen BU multiple times, I could easily see them winning the region if their inside game becomes more consistent or at least on par with their outside game that was displayed at the Pac. Scary and well coached!

[KnightStalker]

Re: Rankings

I thought BU played very well when they dismantled my Eagles at the Pac. In fact, I was shocked with the play of the BU point guard who outplayed our guards that day. Having seen BU multiple times, I could easily see them winning the region if their inside game becomes more consistent or at least on par with their outside game that was displayed at the Pac. Scary and well coached!

Davis has had a tremendous year. He has played as well as any point guard I have seen play in D2. What makes him good and in fact what makes BU good this year is defense. This has been Davenport's best defensive team. I will say that the game at USI was up to that point in the season, the best defensive effort BU had performed. The fact though is they followed that up with even better efforts against Lewis (we can say Lewis' effort stunk but I think the defense had a lot to do with it), and Parkside and have continued ever since. In fact defense has become the most solid and formidable part of BU's game. The starters are all very solid defensively, and when Cook comes in there is some decent shot blocking ability to go with it.