Regional Rankings 2019

[schnautza]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

The bottom of the list was pretty tough to rationalize. There were so many losses in that range of the rankings to really get a good feel. We also don't know how much gap there is between them and the next teams left out of the poll. I'm thinking there is enough of a gap that they can stay in.


If I exclude Davenport and Oakland City from my data, Hillsdale is #7 (regionally) in win% and #20 in OW%. NMU is #16 win% and #6 OW%. These combinations indicate that both teams are good.

For Drury, I'm thinking it's too late for them to really break into the rankings, even if they deserve it lately, based on how many losses they racked up early on. Their record puts them at #18 for win% and #24 for OW% - not a great combination. However, they are now 5-5 on ranked teams, tied with USI. So maybe there is a chance. I do agree, they are definitely the underdog to watch.

[bkingbroker]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

Drury get 2 likely wins at home this week. If they get Indy round 1 in the conference tourney, that could be an elimination game. They win then they get a shot at Lewis in the second round, which is a golden opportunity for them. I say Drury gets in....

The bottom of the list was pretty tough to rationalize. There were so many losses in that range of the rankings to really get a good feel. We also don't know how much gap there is between them and the next teams left out of the poll. I'm thinking there is enough of a gap that they can stay in.


If I exclude Davenport and Oakland City from my data, Hillsdale is #7 (regionally) in win% and #20 in OW%. NMU is #16 win% and #6 OW%. These combinations indicate that both teams are good.

For Drury, I'm thinking it's too late for them to really break into the rankings, even if they deserve it lately, based on how many losses they racked up early on. Their record puts them at #18 for win% and #24 for OW% - not a great combination. However, they are now 5-5 on ranked teams, tied with USI. So maybe there is a chance. I do agree, they are definitely the underdog to watch.

[WKYDave]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

I think the top 5 are in the tourney. UIndy and Ferris probably need to win their remaining regular season games and then they are in for sure(barring two unexpected winners of conference tourneys.) As for number 8, I think Walsh is in the driver's seat if they win the rest of their games except for Findlay, if they play in the GMAC tourney. Hillsdale would need UIndy, Ferris or Walsh to lose in the regular season and then win all their games except for Findlay in GMAC tourney. Most likely scenario, however, is each of these teams falter and Drury gets in at no. 6!

While I agree with belief that top 5 are in, don't underestimate the ability of USI to play to level of competition and thus lose to IL-Springfield like they did last year. If USI falls in first GLVC game also and there are a couple of conference upsets then USI may be on outside like last year.

This scenario is a huge longshot because G-Mac will only get 2 bids regardless of an upset unlike last year. That leaves 6 bids left with 3 of them going to Lewis, Bell and Ashland. Now down to 3 bids...GLVC or GLIAC could have upset winners leaving 2 bids left. I don't see how USI would be left out of those 2.

[DJ Silky Panties]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

Drury get 2 likely wins at home this week. If they get Indy round 1 in the conference tourney, that could be an elimination game. They win then they get a shot at Lewis in the second round, which is a golden opportunity for them. I say Drury gets in....

Yes. If Drury wins last two plus a
Game in mini they in by committee. Will likely be no worse than 6-6 vs ranked. Committee looks at second half of season strong too. All Drury losses are a combined 23 points. Last five losses I think is 7.
Indy is out unless they win last two and get to mini title game- 4 or more
Wins. Hillsdale on bubble. North
Michigan outtie. Umsl has only one game
Left. They have to make mini final for a chance 3 more wins.
WoD can chit the bed again too. Losses to duds and a early mini exit could be doom. They win one and even early exit they in.

[TSU_Mike59]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

Released this afternoon:

Men's
Rank School Overall DII Record In-Region Record
1 Lewis 18-4 18-4
2 Bellarmine 20-4 20-4
3 Findlay 21-3 21-3
4 Southern Indiana 17-7 16-7
5 Ashland 17-5 17-5
6 UIndy 14-8 14-6
7 Ferris State 16-10 16-10
8 Hillsdale 16-8 16-8
9 Northern Michigan 15-11 15-11
10 Drury 13-10 13-6

Women's
Rank School Overall DII Record In-Region Record
1 Drury 26-0 24-0
2 Lewis 23-2 23-2
3 Grand Valley State 23-2 23-2
4 Ashland 25-2 25-2
5 Northern Michigan 19-7 19-7
6 Truman 20-5 18-5
7 Kentucky Wesleyan 18-5 18-5
8 Southern Indiana 16-8 16-8
9 Cedarville 18-6 18-6
10 Michigan Tech 19-8 19-8

[schnautza]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

Observation:
Lewis, Bellarmine, USI, and Drury are 4 of only 21 teams that have beaten 5 or more ranked opponents. Lewis leads the charge, being the only one with 9 wins.

[MidwestHoops]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

If Bellarmine would lose another game they might just move up to #1! Still a lot of hoops to be played, plenty of twists and turns ahead.

[Knightmoves]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

I think there is a good chance that Drury makes the tournament if they win three straight games.

[TSU_Mike59]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

I think there is a good chance that Drury makes the tournament if they win three straight games.

The one thing to remember is that basically, an at-large team needs to play for the 7-seed assuming that one of the conferences will have a "bid thief," so getting up three spots might be trickier. Also, with the GLIAC having Davenport as the favorite but unable to qualify, it might end up being easier for a GLIAC team to make the NCAA tournament as the auto qualifier, because all that might need to be done is just make the conference championship game. If someone like Grand Valley or Northern Michigan gets a good draw and makes the title game, that's a bid thief.

[KnightStalker]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

The one thing to remember is that basically, an at-large team needs to play for the 7-seed assuming that one of the conferences will have a "bid thief," so getting up three spots might be trickier. Also, with the GLIAC having Davenport as the favorite but unable to qualify, it might end up being easier for a GLIAC team to make the NCAA tournament as the auto qualifier, because all that might need to be done is just make the conference championship game. If someone like Grand Valley or Northern Michigan gets a good draw and makes the title game, that's a bid thief.

So has anyone officially determined who gets the auto bid if Davenport wins GLIAC tourney? Is it definitely the runner-up in the tourney? The only other method is if the conference somehow got to choose their representative, I guess. I am not sure I have ever seen this scenario, the best team in the conference not eligible for NCAA tourney but eligible for conference tourney. Kudos to Davenport for being such a great competitor right out of the gate.

[TSU_Mike59]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

So has anyone officially determined who gets the auto bid if Davenport wins GLIAC tourney? Is it definitely the runner-up in the tourney? The only other method is if the conference somehow got to choose their representative, I guess. I am not sure I have ever seen this scenario, the best team in the conference not eligible for NCAA tourney but eligible for conference tourney. Kudos to Davenport for being such a great competitor right out of the gate.

I can't figure out where I saw it, but I remember seeing it somewhere that it's either the tourney champ or the runner-up if the tourney champ is DU.

[Knightmoves]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

I can't figure out where I saw it, but I remember seeing it somewhere that it's either the tourney champ or the runner-up if the tourney champ is DU.

I believe you saw it on here, but it was just an assumption. Nobody has pointed to any kind of official source. The only other logical possibility is that it goes to the regular season champ, but of course that is also Davenport.

[schnautza]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

So has anyone officially determined who gets the auto bid if Davenport wins GLIAC tourney? Is it definitely the runner-up in the tourney? The only other method is if the conference somehow got to choose their representative, I guess. I am not sure I have ever seen this scenario, the best team in the conference not eligible for NCAA tourney but eligible for conference tourney. Kudos to Davenport for being such a great competitor right out of the gate.

I suppose if the conference tourney is fairly seeded, then the other finalist would rightfully get it...? But how many times have we seen a tournament that the semifinal round was tougher than the final round? If Davenport beats a really good team in semis, who is to say that they weren't more deserving than a team that Davenport beats in the finals?

[schnautza]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

I'd be tempted to say that the lost auto-bid would have to become an at-large bid. Let the committee determine who deserves it most.

[Knightmoves]

Re: Regional Rankings 2019

Ultimately this is not an opinion question. When the decision was made to allow Davenport to participate in the tournament, there had to be a rule covering the conference's bid to the NCAA tournament in case a non-eligible team won the tournament. I would just like to hear or see from an official source what the rule is. It would be surprising if it was anything other than the runner up gets it, but I'd still like to see the rule.

P.S. Instead of cursing the darkness, I lit a candle and called the GLIAC SID. She confirmed that the tournament bid will go to the runner up if Davenport wins the conference tournament.