D1 realignment aftermath and will it affect D2

[zimmy21]

Hey guys, wondering if you have any thoughts on the Division 1 Realignment that feels imminent now with OU and Texas potentially moving to the SEC, and if you think it will affect D2 schools at all? It almost feels like this will cause the creation of the Power 4/5 division leaving behind the non power school conferences to what was the FBS. Maybe some FCS schools making a shift up to bigger conferences, that could pull some D2 up to FCS.
let me know what you're thinking!

[CALUPA69]

Hey guys, wondering if you have any thoughts on the Division 1 Realignment that feels imminent now with OU and Texas potentially moving to the SEC, and if you think it will affect D2 schools at all? It almost feels like this will cause the creation of the Power 4/5 division leaving behind the non power school conferences to what was the FBS. Maybe some FCS schools making a shift up to bigger conferences, that could pull some D2 up to FCS.
let me know what you're thinking!

Any and all of what you suggested is possible, but the only I thing I can say for somewhat certain is that collegiate sports, at all levels, will be entirely different by 2030 if not 2025. I haven't noticed any indication that the NCAA has begun to lay out their future configuration in the play for pay era, but at the very least members, aside from the uber-wealthy, are probably going to have to cut back in marginal sports, in order to feed the FB/BB beast. Probably a chance that something like another division between FCS and D2 will develop and D2 will be significantly smaller. Even aside from all that's happened recently the GLIAC, PSAC, NE-10 and GNAC are facing increasingly difficult futures. Time will tell.

[crixus]

?????

[Wildcat Khan]

There are also reports that Kansas and Iowa State have reached out to the Big 10.

[CatFan88]

Big 12 isn't dead yet but certainly on life support. They still have some choices if OU and Texas do leave. They could try to steal Arizona and Arizona State from the PAC-12, add SMU and Houston. Cincinnati and Memphis could be choices too. If the Big 12 is gonna go all in and try to keep OU and Texas, they will have to renegotiate their TV deal for more money and better time slots. I think that is a must to keep OU and Texas.

If the Big 12 dies, then I love Iowa St. in the Big 10. They align themselves well academically with the Big 10. Iowa St. football can compete in Big 10 football now and they play a similar style. It would really strengthen the relationship between Matt Campbell and Iowa St being that Campbell is from Ohio and recruits that state heavily. I think he would be less likely to move to Ohio St. (one of his choices if he were to move on). I really believe the Cyclones will be relevant in basketball again under Otzelberger. He has made a commitment to recruiting Minnesota for basketball. A move to the Big 10 would be gigantic in establishing that pipeline.

[crixus]

I was raised on West Virginia athletics, they're my favorite team in all of sports, college and pro. So if the Big 12 does break up and West Virginia moves to the ACC I'll be very happy - bring back the Brawl. But whatever happens...Let's Go Mountaineers!

https://247sports.com/Article/Colleg...ick-168244723/

????????

[Columbuseer]

The Alston case and NIL is just the start of seismic change in the structure of d1 revenue sports.
Some thoughts for discussion.

The inherent incongruity of big d1 athletic business and college education as an amateur can no longer co-exist.

1. The time requirements for d1 athletes are not conducive to achieving their academic potential.
2. Parents will rebel against $2-5k tuition going to support paid athletes.
3. Someone will win a class action lawsuit stating that academic requirement for college admission is restraint of trade for gifted athletes who cannot qualify. Colleges have been caught committing academic fraud in current system.Your ACT score has no correlation with whether you can make a tackler miss in the open field. They will need to defer free education, whether college or trade school, until after athletic career is over.
4. Colleges will need to avoid liability of CTE lawsuits and may divest in some way, maybe just licensing use of name and logo for team.
5. Current system encourages buying players, with it now being in the open with NIL, allowing rich to get richer. Like NFL and NBA, colleges will have to revert to salary cap and draft. This actually might increase competition and reveal the actual good coaches from the snake oil salespersons

What could happen in d1 long term
1. D1 Football revenue currently follows an 80-20 rule where 80% of $ is generated by 20% of teams. They will break away from ncaa and form 32 team league and keep all the $. Without ncaa, scholarship limits are gone as well as academic standards, siphoning all great players.
2. New league will attempt to move from school rivalry to national or divisional rivalries, like an nfl minor developmental league.
3. Existing perennial conference doormats may be left as top teams bolt other conferences and join the league.
4. Over time, I see d1 relationship to university attendance weakening.
5. Without $, Many schools will abandon facilities arms race and drop to lower divisions; d1 to fcs, fcs to d2 etc. CBS sports estimates big 12 drops from $38m per team to $9m without TX and OK.