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Week 7 Projected Regional Rankings

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  • Week 7 Projected Regional Rankings

    Well, this was quite the week. After next week's games we'll get our first set of actual rankings.

    SR1
    1. Bentley (7-0)
    2. Kutztown (6-1)
    3. Shepherd (6-1)
    4. Indiana (5-1)
    5. Notre Dame (6-1)
    6. Findlay (5-2)
    7. Charleston (5-1)
    8. California (6-0)
    9. Stonehill (5-1)
    10. Slippery Rock (6-1)
    Findlay has the highest SOS in the region; their losses are to the #1 and #4 teams in SR3. Cal has played no one with a winning record. I don't think Charleston is close enough to NDC at this point for the head-to-head to matter.

    SR2
    1. Valdosta State (6-0)
    2. Bowie State (6-0)
    3. West Alabama (5-1)
    4. Albany State (6-1)
    5. West Georgia (6-1)
    6. West Florida (4-1)
    7. Savannah State (6-1)
    8. Wingate (5-1)
    9. Newberry (5-2)
    10. Fayetteville State (5-1)
    The W%+SOS and Performance Indicators both show significant gaps after each of the first three. The margins are razor-thin among the next four... and someone has to be the unlucky team bumped by the SAC's Earned Access. Newberry has a much stronger SOS than Wingate, but both losses are to teams outside the top 10.

    SR3
    1. Ferris State (6-0)
    2. Harding (6-1)
    3. Grand Valley State (4-1)
    4. Lindenwood (5-1)
    5. Nebraska–Kearney (6-1)
    6. Northwest Missouri State (5-1)
    7. Henderson State (6-1)
    8. Southeastern Oklahoma State (6-1)
    9. Ouachita Baptist (6-1)
    10. Washburn (5-2)
    This set of rankings is pretty straightforward, with close calls for the #3 and #5 spots.

    SR4
    1. Colorado Mines (7-0)
    2. Central Washington (4-1)
    3. Midwestern State (5-1)
    4. Angelo State (5-2)
    5. Augustana (6-1)
    6. Wayne State NE (5-2)
    7. Minnesota–Duluth (6-1)
    8. Western Colorado (6-1)
    9. Minnesota State (5-2)
    10. Bemidji State (5-2)
    There's a lot of head-to-heads in play here: #2, #3, #5, #6, and #9 each have a win over the team immediately below. The NSIC currently has two 6-1 teams and five 5-2 teams.

  • #2
    Matchups with these rankings: https://i.imgur.com/hr5nLg1.png

    1.1 Bentley
    1.5 Notre Dame at 1.4 Indiana
    1.7 Charleston at 1.2 Kutztown
    1.6 Findlay at 1.3 Shepherd

    2.1 Valdosta State
    2.6 West Florida at 2.4 Albany State
    2.8 Wingate at 2.2 Bowie State
    2.5 West Georgia at 2.3 West Alabama

    3.1 Ferris State
    3.5 Nebraska–Kearney at 3.4 Lindenwood
    3.6 Northwest Missouri State at 3.2 Harding
    4.5 Augustana at 3.3 Grand Valley State

    4.1 Colorado Mines
    4.6 Wayne State NE at 4.4 Angelo State
    4.7 Minnesota–Duluth at 4.2 Central Washington
    3.7 Henderson State at 4.3 Midwestern State
    Last edited by Inkblot; 10-17-2021, 04:05 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      I think you have Bowie ranking to high. They barely beat a Vir. State team that LRU beat 48-07 at Va. State.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Bearhof View Post
        I think you have Bowie ranking to high. They barely beat a Vir. State team that LRU beat 48-07 at Va. State.
        Margin of victory is not a consideration.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Bearhof View Post
          I think you have Bowie ranking to high. They barely beat a Vir. State team that LRU beat 48-07 at Va. State.
          How would BSU be too high? We have zero DII losses and have played a good OOC schedule. Va State is a rivalry game and anything can happen in those games. The bottom line is they were resilient, remain undefeated(DII) and will be a top 10 ranked team this upcoming week. If we are talking about punishing top teams for style points in wins, than we have to be consistent with including all teams. I.E. #2(soon to be #1) Ferris State was nearly upset a few weeks ago by what should have been an "inferior " opponent. Did you believe their ranking should be effected as well?

          Comment


          • #6
            On any given year your conference is in playoffs from earned access and very seldom wins a playoff game. Several weak teams with blowout losses to other conference teams. Historically it has proven to be a weaker conference. Maybe this year is different because BSU has been very competitive the last couple years.

            Comment


            • #7
              Not a criticism, but a question. How do you handle the Kutztown, Shepherd and IUP logjam? They all have one loss and have basically beaten each other. Do you have IUP 4th due to one less game and then use Kutztown's head to head over Shepherd?

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              • #8
                We haven't lost multiple regular season games in several years. We are earning our way in based on overall record, not because we win our conference(EA). We lost to eventual national champ, Valdosta State in second round of playoffs in 2018 and lost in first round in 2019. History doesn't have anything to do with it. Im not here to debate conference history(even though we had a team play in the national championship in 2012) im debating you saying that an undefeated team who played a good OOC schedule, should be ranked behind teams that have lost. His projections are correct because margin of victory aren't a factor. A win is a win. I think you are confusing us with the SIAC regarding earned access. Nonetheless, still a lot of football to be played. Bowie should be undefeated (11-1) (10-0) once the final regional ranking post.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Ram Tough View Post
                  Not a criticism, but a question. How do you handle the Kutztown, Shepherd and IUP logjam? They all have one loss and have basically beaten each other. Do you have IUP 4th due to one less game and then use Kutztown's head to head over Shepherd?
                  That's part of it. It also doesn't hurt that Kutztown's SOS is the second-best in SR1.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Here's the bracket image: https://i.imgur.com/hr5nLg1.png

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Central Washington and Midwestern State and Angelo State hosting games you can't go wrong with that.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Inkblot View Post
                        Here's the bracket image: https://i.imgur.com/hr5nLg1.png
                        I think it is possible that the switch UNK into SR 4 here too. In that case Duluth could play GV and Augie could play Lindenwood.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by GoneBlastin View Post

                          I think it is possible that the switch UNK into SR 4 here too. In that case Duluth could play GV and Augie could play Lindenwood.
                          I don't think that would save any potential flights.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Bearhof View Post
                            On any given year your conference is in playoffs from earned access and very seldom wins a playoff game. Several weak teams with blowout losses to other conference teams. Historically it has proven to be a weaker conference. Maybe this year is different because BSU has been very competitive the last couple years.
                            I see somebody is stuck in some distant past. CIAA hasn't needed Earned Access to make it in the playoffs in well over a decade. Also in the last decade we have had multiple teams to win a playoff game.

                            ​​​​​

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I suspect each committee can handle this differently, but with teams playing a different number of games this season, is that a significant factor? Selfishly, I'm curious since you don't seem to penalize GV much for playing one (maybe even 2??) less games. Could it be their SOS is high enough to offset that vs others? And with respect to SOS, are you using values only against teams already played or do you include all the teams that are on the schedule? Clearly one doesn't know what the future holds, but those games already played by those future teams are known and will impact the SOS.s .. sounds confusing, but I think you get it. I ask, since some teams have weak teams coming up and others strong ones.
                              Thanks for doing these. We know they're not official, but it's fun eyeballing it anyway!

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