Tweet
With six games down, we are a little past the halfway mark on the season. After having watched most of the games to this point, here are my quick, basic assessments of the top four teams in the current GAC standings. Feel free to chime on the thread and even add teams I didn't cover.
Ouachita
After three key contests it's evident the Tigers have an improved defense from where they were the past three seasons. It is, like all OBU defenses, a highly opportunistic defense, but it is not a good one--i.e., can line up man-to-man and consistently stop opposing offenses without the assistance of turnovers, penalties and miscues. It required taking advantage of mistakes by SE, ATU and HU offenses to get the wins. It takes a good defense to make deep playoff runs in SR3. Teams that have to rely on being an opportunistic defense to get it done tend to either win one PO game or be one-and-done, because PO caliber offenses don't tend to just make mistakes left-and-right every week in the POs. The Tigers offense has struggled against two good defenses in SE and ATU, and was effectively shut down by a great defense in HU. Yes, I know Brazeal left the game injured after a couple of series against HU. Here's the key, while he was in there did he really get anything going? No, he didn't. In other words, I don't think (based on the admittedly small sample) anybody can conclude that OBU's offense would have fared any better if he had been able to play the whole game. While OBU is good at finding a way to win games in the GAC and can run the rest of the table, their type of defense combined with their offensive struggles do not lend themselves to the Tigers being a team that will make noise in the playoffs. I think they can win a game against a GLVC opponent, but not against MIAA or GLIAC squads.
Southern Arkansas
The Muleriders have a defense, but their offense struggles either with quick starts or to maintain momentum. This is not a team on fire, it is a team playing with fire. SAU should have put away SWOSU early, instead they were in a fight until late in the third quarter when the Muleriders finally starting pulling away. Against NWOSU, SAU found themselves again in a fight with a team they didn't put away until late in the game. Then the Muleriders had a shootout with OKB, who actually had the lead midway through the third quarter, and SAU had to rely on late turnovers by SNU last week to escape with the win. The big issue with SAU's offense is that the passing game has taken a step back, even though they have improved in the run game. Currently, Karonce Higgins and Jared Lancaster have nearly half of all team receptions and account for little over half of all receiving touchdowns. The Muleriders just don't spread it around like they use to, and part of that appears to be a talent issue this year. The offense had better learn how to get momentum quickly and maintain it in games, because PO caliber defenses aren't going to give SAU's offense time to figure it out. SAU is another team that could run the rest of the table in the GAC. However, given the Muleriders are once again showing signs that indicate they may be fading as we head into the second half of the season, I'm not sure SAU will win out or finish with only one loss. Like OBU, SAU can make the playoffs, and could win a game if matched up against a GLVC team, but will not make any deep playoff runs given their current trajectory.
Harding
The Bisons have a great defense. It is definitely a PO caliber defense. The reason they are 4-2, instead of 6-0 is their offense. Yes, they lead the nation in rushing offense, however, that stat is misleading to some degree. One of the things it does not account for is mistakes. In their game with SAU, two fumbles that led to scoop-and-scores, were the difference. In their game with OBU, a bad Center-QB exchange, an illegal motion penalty, and then missing an open receiver and throwing the ball away were the difference. The fact is, HU's offense has struggled early on for most of the season to date. The only games where the offense pulled it together early, without help from the defense or special teams, were against SNU and OKB. With their defense HU should be able to to win out, but I expect a couple of rough games with SE and ATU to end the season given the combination of those two squads having fairly good defenses and the Bisons offensive issues. I do think that HU could make the post-season but right now I believe their best bet is the Texarkana Bowl.
Southeastern Oklahoma
The Savage Storm appears to have a good defense. The defense gave them a chance to beat both OKB and OBU. In fact SE was leading OBU 16-14 after three quarters. While their defense appears to be good, the fact is the Savage Storm have not yet been tested by the meat of their schedule. So why are the Savage Storm 4-2? Offensive inconsistency. SE has struggled to execute when they need to. Dropped passes, poorly thrown balls, and questionable decisions have killed drives. For example, against OKB late in the second half down by a couple of scores, several times WRs caught balls along the sidelines past the markers. Instead of running up the sideline, and then out-of-bounds once they got all they could without being tackled, they turned infield to try and make a play to get more yards--it also killed more clock. Against OBU they had four interceptions, two of them were passes that went right through the hands of the WRs. Having said all that, SE should be able to get to the seven-win mark. Whether or not they can do better will depend upon if they can get more consistency out of the offense.
Ouachita
After three key contests it's evident the Tigers have an improved defense from where they were the past three seasons. It is, like all OBU defenses, a highly opportunistic defense, but it is not a good one--i.e., can line up man-to-man and consistently stop opposing offenses without the assistance of turnovers, penalties and miscues. It required taking advantage of mistakes by SE, ATU and HU offenses to get the wins. It takes a good defense to make deep playoff runs in SR3. Teams that have to rely on being an opportunistic defense to get it done tend to either win one PO game or be one-and-done, because PO caliber offenses don't tend to just make mistakes left-and-right every week in the POs. The Tigers offense has struggled against two good defenses in SE and ATU, and was effectively shut down by a great defense in HU. Yes, I know Brazeal left the game injured after a couple of series against HU. Here's the key, while he was in there did he really get anything going? No, he didn't. In other words, I don't think (based on the admittedly small sample) anybody can conclude that OBU's offense would have fared any better if he had been able to play the whole game. While OBU is good at finding a way to win games in the GAC and can run the rest of the table, their type of defense combined with their offensive struggles do not lend themselves to the Tigers being a team that will make noise in the playoffs. I think they can win a game against a GLVC opponent, but not against MIAA or GLIAC squads.
Southern Arkansas
The Muleriders have a defense, but their offense struggles either with quick starts or to maintain momentum. This is not a team on fire, it is a team playing with fire. SAU should have put away SWOSU early, instead they were in a fight until late in the third quarter when the Muleriders finally starting pulling away. Against NWOSU, SAU found themselves again in a fight with a team they didn't put away until late in the game. Then the Muleriders had a shootout with OKB, who actually had the lead midway through the third quarter, and SAU had to rely on late turnovers by SNU last week to escape with the win. The big issue with SAU's offense is that the passing game has taken a step back, even though they have improved in the run game. Currently, Karonce Higgins and Jared Lancaster have nearly half of all team receptions and account for little over half of all receiving touchdowns. The Muleriders just don't spread it around like they use to, and part of that appears to be a talent issue this year. The offense had better learn how to get momentum quickly and maintain it in games, because PO caliber defenses aren't going to give SAU's offense time to figure it out. SAU is another team that could run the rest of the table in the GAC. However, given the Muleriders are once again showing signs that indicate they may be fading as we head into the second half of the season, I'm not sure SAU will win out or finish with only one loss. Like OBU, SAU can make the playoffs, and could win a game if matched up against a GLVC team, but will not make any deep playoff runs given their current trajectory.
Harding
The Bisons have a great defense. It is definitely a PO caliber defense. The reason they are 4-2, instead of 6-0 is their offense. Yes, they lead the nation in rushing offense, however, that stat is misleading to some degree. One of the things it does not account for is mistakes. In their game with SAU, two fumbles that led to scoop-and-scores, were the difference. In their game with OBU, a bad Center-QB exchange, an illegal motion penalty, and then missing an open receiver and throwing the ball away were the difference. The fact is, HU's offense has struggled early on for most of the season to date. The only games where the offense pulled it together early, without help from the defense or special teams, were against SNU and OKB. With their defense HU should be able to to win out, but I expect a couple of rough games with SE and ATU to end the season given the combination of those two squads having fairly good defenses and the Bisons offensive issues. I do think that HU could make the post-season but right now I believe their best bet is the Texarkana Bowl.
Southeastern Oklahoma
The Savage Storm appears to have a good defense. The defense gave them a chance to beat both OKB and OBU. In fact SE was leading OBU 16-14 after three quarters. While their defense appears to be good, the fact is the Savage Storm have not yet been tested by the meat of their schedule. So why are the Savage Storm 4-2? Offensive inconsistency. SE has struggled to execute when they need to. Dropped passes, poorly thrown balls, and questionable decisions have killed drives. For example, against OKB late in the second half down by a couple of scores, several times WRs caught balls along the sidelines past the markers. Instead of running up the sideline, and then out-of-bounds once they got all they could without being tackled, they turned infield to try and make a play to get more yards--it also killed more clock. Against OBU they had four interceptions, two of them were passes that went right through the hands of the WRs. Having said all that, SE should be able to get to the seven-win mark. Whether or not they can do better will depend upon if they can get more consistency out of the offense.
Comment