USC and UCLA to the Big Ten. What impacts could this have on d2?

[BeachinLaker]

Detroit and Oakland do not want GV in the Horizon. The entire conference knows GV will run roughshod over it within five years in every sport.

We seem to be stuck between a rock and a hard place. No one wants to play us in Division II anymore, sending is up to the next level. Upon considering the next level, no one in the most logical conference wants to play us. Bypass that for the MAC and they'd likely view us as a step down for the conference. We can't seem to win.

[champgymusa]

We seem to be stuck between a rock and a hard place. No one wants to play us in Division II anymore, sending is up to the next level. Upon considering the next level, no one in the most logical conference wants to play us. Bypass that for the MAC and they'd likely view us as a step down for the conference. We can't seem to win.

I think the admin at GVSU are being pretty smart for holding their water right now...they can explore and engage moving up and then IF the time is right they are ready to go. If we would get a good multi conference deal in place and stay at D2 we would be fine. I know we all want answers fast but sometimes the best thing to do is nothing...I have no doubt that Becker and company have looked around and have their dry powder if and when its the right deal. The OVC looks like a hot mess to me and who knows once the dust settles at the top what rains down to our level. right now we need to win games in 2022 and then worry about the rest of the stuff.

[Thelakerman]

I think the admin at GVSU are being pretty smart for holding their water right now...they can explore and engage moving up and then IF the time is right they are ready to go. If we would get a good multi conference deal in place and stay at D2 we would be fine. I know we all want answers fast but sometimes the best thing to do is nothing...I have no doubt that Becker and company have looked around and have their dry powder if and when its the right deal. The OVC looks like a hot mess to me and who knows once the dust settles at the top what rains down to our level. right now we need to win games in 2022 and then worry about the rest of the stuff.

[chapmaja]

Reports are Florida State may be looking to get out of the ACC right now, even with the media rights fee that would cost them $50 million or so to get out.

I think in the end their will only be two power conferences. The SEC will be one and the Big Ten will be the other. The remaining Power 5 conferences will end up being broken up between these two conferences and the weaker teams will drop to the G5 level programs.

In the end, the ACC, Pac 12 and Big 12 I think will cease to exist as we know them. Maybe they stay together as G5 conferences, but not as Power conferences.

[Tony Nicolette]

So, Gang, remember in the other thread when Chapmaja and I agreed that where GV truly belongs doesn't yet exist? Remember where we talked about trying to compete against the P5 schools was pointless, as MAC and other G5 members have exemplified for years? How much more evidence is needed other than simply reading some of the articles that surround this topic? The Super Conferences are forming, and most articles point to schools being candidates if their brands and markets can support an additional $70M annually in media rights value to the conference that might court them. As the process is showing, there are only a small handful of those schools that can do that. They will soon be gobbled up, and everyone else will be left to figure out what to do from there. For Grand Valley or any other D2 school to try and move up and play in that space was just asking for disappointment. The value to go simply is NOT THERE. The ability to compete against those few elites (despite the fact that the NCAA would have viewed GV as IDENTICAL to them) was never going to present itself.

The amount of upheaval happening at the top end of D1 has been brewing for years, but only now is the "liquid hot magma" truly swelling up toward the surface for all to see, smell, hear and feel.

I believe that there will be handful of ACC schools that will find their way into the B1G and the SEC. They'll do the math, and figure out that they can earn enough in the short term hang in there and be there when the SEC and B1G's new media deals come together. That short term penalty will be close enough to a long-term wash and the few who jump will (likely gladly) stomach it to cash in on the long term $ that will undoubtedly be massive. I mean, if I'm UNC or Florida State or Clemson and my ACC media deal is only worth around $36M per year (vs. the current SEC deal of $54M), I'm already looking at the delta and trying to figure out "if ESPN thinks I'm going to the SEC, how much more will their deal be worth and how much less will the ACC's be? Do I want to be left out of that? And from there, how many years can I 'live on less' (and how much less is debatable) so I can be right there when a new SEC deal nets $75M to $100M per school and can easily pay off any debts and be tens of millions to the good in perpetuity after. I'll play for what are perceived to be the most competitive titles in anything, and can look back at whatever the ACC becomes and almost certainly be glad I'm not still there."

As for everyone else, it will be wildly interesting to see what becomes of the NCAA. One has to wonder if it will restructure itself, and what that new/subsequent structure will look like. Or, does the bulk of its remaining membership realize that the whole thing stinks and needs to be blown up? (Blown up is my hunch, but that's another thread/topic of its own).

Honestly, if/when these two or three super conferences do wind up breaking off on their own, the # of potential outcomes for what happens to the remaining 1150 or so NCAA members borders on the endless. Could GV THEN move into a different "division"? A different "organization" entirely? Perhaps, and they will likely be able to join a division/group/organization that provides the ability to be competitive...where as what is presently available most certainly does not. Scheduling difficulties for football and membership in a conference that has some issues still don't provide (at least not to me) an open/shut case for moving to a structure that will require the school to spend millions more annually for what would be a nearly immediate dilution of the brand. It just doesn't make sense.

What does make sense, at least from where I sit, is for GV to grab a giant-ass bucket of popcorn and enjoy the show with their two-for-one coupon, paid for by the gift card Grandma put in their stocking. In two to five years, I would wager that we may see things blown up enough that a spot that makes much better sense for a lot of current NCAA members will come available. And if it doesn't, so what? GV affordably runs its department, stays in the Top 3 in NACDA cup standings, and keeps its brand and rivalries going. Sure sounds like a decent outcome either way given the current circumstances...

[bigmrg74]

Reports are Florida State may be looking to get out of the ACC right now, even with the media rights fee that would cost them $50 million or so to get out.

I think in the end their will only be two power conferences. The SEC will be one and the Big Ten will be the other. The remaining Power 5 conferences will end up being broken up between these two conferences and the weaker teams will drop to the G5 level programs.

In the end, the ACC, Pac 12 and Big 12 I think will cease to exist as we know them. Maybe they stay together as G5 conferences, but not as Power conferences.

The best way for those schools to get out of that 50 million buyout would be if the whole conference left for a new conference. Either the SEC absorbed them all whole, or they worked out a deal to split the ACC between the SEC and the Big Ten. Clearly Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and most likely Georgia Tech to the Big Ten, and then figuring out just how they would want to break up the rest of the league.

[canadarican]

I believe that there will be handful of ACC schools that will find their way into the B1G and the SEC. They'll do the math, and figure out that they can earn enough in the short term hang in there and be there when the SEC and B1G's new media deals come together. That short term penalty will be close enough to a long-term wash and the few who jump will (likely gladly) stomach it to cash in on the long term $ that will undoubtedly be massive. I mean, if I'm UNC or Florida State or Clemson and my ACC media deal is only worth around $36M per year (vs. the current SEC deal of $54M), I'm already looking at the delta and trying to figure out "if ESPN thinks I'm going to the SEC, how much more will their deal be worth and how much less will the ACC's be? Do I want to be left out of that? And from there, how many years can I 'live on less' (and how much less is debatable) so I can be right there when a new SEC deal nets $75M to $100M per school and can easily pay off any debts and be tens of millions to the good in perpetuity after. I'll play for what are perceived to be the most competitive titles in anything, and can look back at whatever the ACC becomes and almost certainly be glad I'm not still there."

It's not a short term penalty though. Unless the ACC cease to exist, any school leaving won't make a penny in media money for the next 14 years on top of (what Dennis Dodd is reporting) a nearly $100 million exit fee. So yes, they will be "left out of that".

[Tony Nicolette]

It's not a short term penalty though. Unless the ACC cease to exist, any school leaving won't make a penny in media money for the next 14 years on top of (what Dennis Dodd is reporting) a nearly $100 million exit fee. So yes, they will be "left out of that".

Fair, but I guess what I mean is that it's temporary in that it "won't last forever". And, when one looks at this through lens of the next 20, 30, or 50 years, the upside is almost certainly there.

And, it won't be a 14 year sentence. Anyone that announces they are leaving at this point likely won't do so until 2025 or 2026. ONLY AFTER they leave the ACC would they have to forfeit anything. It'd be business as usual until then.

Additionally, who knows whether something won't get negotiated to where it is lessened, etc. Plus, I still can't figure exactly how the whole thing works...the idea that the ACC could somehow own whatever a school's share would be from another conference seems like it would have pitfalls in terms of being able to enforce it. Could they enforce to a "value equivalent to theirs"? I can see that.

The whole thing is pretty interesting.

[canadarican]

Fair, but I guess what I mean is that it's temporary in that it "won't last forever". And, when one looks at this through lens of the next 20, 30, or 50 years, the upside is almost certainly there.

And, it won't be a 14 year sentence. Anyone that announces they are leaving at this point likely won't do so until 2025 or 2026. ONLY AFTER they leave the ACC would they have to forfeit anything. It'd be business as usual until then.

Additionally, who knows whether something won't get negotiated to where it is lessened, etc. Plus, I still can't figure exactly how the whole thing works...the idea that the ACC could somehow own whatever a school's share would be from another conference seems like it would have pitfalls in terms of being able to enforce it. Could they enforce to a "value equivalent to theirs"? I can see that.

The whole thing is pretty interesting.

Agree, its confusing. But that's where college athletics at the D1 level are now. Now what would really cause everything to go Tango Uniform would be if Notre Dame decided to go to the ACC for football since all their other sports fit so well.

[Tony Nicolette]

Agree, its confusing. But that's where college athletics at the D1 level are now. Now what would really cause everything to go Tango Uniform would be if Notre Dame decided to go to the ACC for football since all their other sports fit so well.

Yeah, Notre Dame has a very interesting influence on things...at least as it sits. If they join the ACC all the way (the rest of their sports other than hockey are there already), it makes the ACC's media rights value a bit juicier and you may see less interest in defection from the Clemsons, UNCs, FSUs, etc.

BUT, if they go to another league...say, the B1G, does that give the potential ACC defectors something that can stand-up in court to negate the GOR deal the ACC currently has? Again, ND is in the ACC for everything else...that's a membership shift...could it give grounds for the other schools to state that the "landscape has changed, the deal no longer is valid"? I'm not an attorney so I don't know, but I could see a way that a school (or schools) that want out could try to argue that it does.

Gonna be a beat before ND does anything as far as I can tell. In all honesty, I think the biggest thing that will cause them to want to move will be if they don't have a path to the best available playoff. If being in the B1G or the SEC is pretty much a requirement, they'll go.

[canadarican]

Yeah, Notre Dame has a very interesting influence on things...at least as it sits. If they join the ACC all the way (the rest of their sports other than hockey are there already), it makes the ACC's media rights value a bit juicier and you may see less interest in defection from the Clemsons, UNCs, FSUs, etc.

BUT, if they go to another league...say, the B1G, does that give the potential ACC defectors something that can stand-up in court to negate the GOR deal the ACC currently has? Again, ND is in the ACC for everything else...that's a membership shift...could it give grounds for the other schools to state that the "landscape has changed, the deal no longer is valid"? I'm not an attorney so I don't know, but I could see a way that a school (or schools) that want out could try to argue that it does.

Gonna be a beat before ND does anything as far as I can tell. In all honesty, I think the biggest thing that will cause them to want to move will be if they don't have a path to the best available playoff. If being in the B1G or the SEC is pretty much a requirement, they'll go.

I think it was Dennis Dodd and someone else who said they spoke with an attorney who handles stuff like the GoR deal and said that it is written so that it would stand if a school leaves. So if that's true, I don't know if that gives the other schools something to stand on. I agree I could see a school arguing that but I don't know if it accomplishes anything.

If the ACC were to somehow convince Notre Dame to join, I think that's massive. In fact, it may be enough potentially for ESPN to reconsider the TV deal to make more $. Getting ND is bigger than the USC/UCLA additions (IMO). The next question would be if you are the ACC, who else do you add to get to 16/18? West Virginia, Cincinnati and....folks will say UCF. No thanks. Despite Orlando being a top 20 TV market I don't see it. I know there were rumors a few years back that the ACC had spoke to Kansas. Does less than nothing for football (in fact adding Grand Valley would be more beneficial than adding Kansas hehe), but my God ACC basketball would just skyrocket again.

[bigmrg74]

I think it was Dennis Dodd and someone else who said they spoke with an attorney who handles stuff like the GoR deal and said that it is written so that it would stand if a school leaves. So if that's true, I don't know if that gives the other schools something to stand on. I agree I could see a school arguing that but I don't know if it accomplishes anything.

If the ACC were to somehow convince Notre Dame to join, I think that's massive. In fact, it may be enough potentially for ESPN to reconsider the TV deal to make more $. Getting ND is bigger than the USC/UCLA additions (IMO). The next question would be if you are the ACC, who else do you add to get to 16/18? West Virginia, Cincinnati and....folks will say UCF. No thanks. Despite Orlando being a top 20 TV market I don't see it. I know there were rumors a few years back that the ACC had spoke to Kansas. Does less than nothing for football (in fact adding Grand Valley would be more beneficial than adding Kansas hehe), but my God ACC basketball would just skyrocket again.

I think half of the point of the GoR deal is just to be intimidating enough that it keeps everyone in the ACC until at least the deal it up. I do like the idea of the Irish in the ACC as that easily gives the ACC a seat at the super conference table. Maybe as the 3rd best super conference, but as a super conference. And that alone should motivate whoever is left between the PAC schools and the Big 12 schools to form a Best of the West conference which then gets dubbed the Best of the West, and is considered the 4th super conference, at least on paper.

[stealth]

Agree, its confusing. But that's where college athletics at the D1 level are now. Now what would really cause everything to go Tango Uniform would be if Notre Dame decided to go to the ACC for football since all their other sports fit so well.

What would really make it fun is if ND took advantage of its status, and formed it's own conference of academic/athletic "elites".
Something like:

1. Notre Dame -exclusive TV deal (Midwest)
2. Texas -exclusive TV channel (Texas)
3. Miami (Florida)
4. BYU -exclusive TV channel
5. Stanford (West Coast)
6. USC (West Coast)
7. Duke -basketball (East Coast)
8. Villanova -basketball (East Coast)
9. Baylor

Potientially:
Gonzaga (basketball)
Boston College
Northwestern
Syracuse
Wake Forest
SMU
UCLA
TCU
Military Academies

[D2Ohio]

What would really make it fun is if ND took advantage of its status, and formed it's own conference of academic/athletic "elites".
Something like:

I've always wondered why the P5 academic "elites" didn't schedule each other for non conference football for some sort of "Trophy"

Northwestern
Vanderbilt
Duke
Stanford
B12 - N/A

[LegalRam]

I've always wondered why the P5 academic "elites" didn't schedule each other for non conference football for some sort of "Trophy"

Northwestern
Vanderbilt
Duke
Stanford
B12 - N/A

For being out of conference opponents with no natural rivalry Northwestern and Duke actually do seem to play each other a fair amount.

Wake Forest v. Vanderbilt is another one of those academic matchups that seems to have been played a decent amount over the years.