Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Influence Power Rating

Collapse

Support The Site!

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Influence Power Rating

    Directly from my weekly blog

    Nerd Alert!


    As I said at the beginning of the year, I’m a bit of a stat nerd and I enjoy trying to create meaningful metrics to tell a deeper story of what we’re seeing play out on the field. With that being said… this part might not be for everyone. I went a little overboard with the nerd on this one.

    This rating is one I’ve been working on for the past couple of weeks. So much of the analysis part of football is simply sitting down and watching the games. For those of use that have been around the game for a long time (25 years for me), we can get a feel for what teams are like and how they can impose their will on other teams. But I’ve never been a big fan of how traditional stats capture that activity and tell the story. The stats below basically sum up how each team performs against other teams in relation to their average performance. I’ve decided to all it the Influence Power Rating for right now. I’m trying to capture how effective a team is at influencing their will on the outcome of the game.

    A score of 0.0% would indicate that a team allows other teams to perform to their season average. They don’t gain more or less yards than the other team usually allows, and they don’t hold them to more or less than they usually gain. They don’t score more or less points than the other team usually allows, and they don’t hold them to more or less points than they usually score. The higher the IPR is over 0.0%, the better that team is at influencing games towards their favor relative to their competition. Negative IRP ratings indicate that a team’s opponents generally perform better than they’re season average.

    I’m sure there’s 100 holes that I’ll eventually punch in this metric, but for now I thought I’d share to give GLVC fans another way of looking at how the conference is shaking out. If anyone is interested in looking at the breakdown for all the games and teams, let me know I’d be happy to share. You’re responsible for your own ibuprofen when/if the spreadsheet gives you a headache though!

    School IPR
    1 Indianapolis 36.93%
    2 Lindenwood 21.76%
    3 Truman 21.19%
    4 Missouri S&T 11.38%
    5 McKendree -4.39%
    6 Quincy -12.86%
    7 William Jewell -17.24%
    8 Southwest Baptist -27.91%

  • #2
    Did you do an o and d breakdown?

    Comment


    • #3
      BTW, this is awesome.

      Comment


      • #4
        I do. Il share more next week! Out of town right now.

        Comment


        • #5
          Updated Rankings.
          School IPR
          1 Uindy 38.02%
          2 Lindenwood 20.09%
          3 Truman 18.85%
          4 Missouri S&T 4.94%
          5 McKendree -2.30%
          6 Quincy -18.18%
          7 William Jewell -18.80%
          8 Southwest Baptist -28.94%



          Also... here's the offensive and defensive breakout.
          School Offensive IPR
          Uindy 44.17%
          LU 31.15%
          Truman 24.82%
          McK 8.18%
          MoST 4.95%
          Quincy -0.93%
          WJC -19.20%
          SBU -32.82%

          School Defensive IPR
          Uindy 31.87%
          Truman 12.88%
          LU 9.04%
          MoST 4.93%
          McK -12.77%
          WJC -18.40%
          SBU -25.06%
          Quincy -35.42%
          Cool Story Bro

          Comment


          • #6
            Bryon......how do you measure? Is it up to the date of the game or is it cumulative throughout the entire season?

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Brandon View Post
              Bryon......how do you measure? Is it up to the date of the game or is it cumulative throughout the entire season?
              It's up through the most recent games.
              Cool Story Bro

              Comment


              • #8
                Final Influence Power Ratings.
                School Total IPR
                1 Uindy 36.89%
                2 Lindenwood 19.94%
                3 Truman 18.96%
                4 Missouri S&T 4.74%
                5 McKendree -0.30%
                6 William Jewell -18.56%
                7 Quincy -18.84%
                8 Southwest Baptist -28.00%



                School Defensive IPR
                1 Uindy 33.02%
                2 Truman 15.17%
                3 Lindenwood 13.64%
                4 Missouri S&T 0.37%
                5 McKendree -13.09%
                6 Southwest Baptist -20.37%
                7 William Jewell -22.95%
                8 Quincy -40.61%

                School Offensive IPR
                1 Uindy 40.75%
                2 Lindenwood 26.24%
                3 Truman 22.74%
                4 McKendree 12.48%
                5 Missouri S&T 9.11%
                6 Quincy 2.93%
                7 William Jewell -14.16%
                8 Southwest Baptist -35.62%

                Comment


                • #9
                  It would be cool to see this for the SR3 playoff teams. I imagine all would be pretty positive, but it would still be pretty cool. You already have two done!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by MilSF View Post
                    It would be cool to see this for the SR3 playoff teams. I imagine all would be pretty positive, but it would still be pretty cool. You already have two done!
                    I don't know exactly what all goes into Massey, but they have theirs for D2.

                    They have projected NWMSU 27 HU 24. 58-42 win probability.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by MilSF View Post
                      It would be cool to see this for the SR3 playoff teams. I imagine all would be pretty positive, but it would still be pretty cool. You already have two done!
                      Appreciate the interest! Let me see what I can do this week. It's a bit time consuming because I have to research individual game stats.

                      Interestingly enough, the most annoying thing I've found is that different teams present their stats differently and trying to figure out their websites is a PITA. The MIAA and GAC might be easier though. I should be able to find all the info I need on the conference websites since there aren't any non conference games.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Divisiontwo View Post

                        I don't know exactly what all goes into Massey, but they have theirs for D2.

                        They have projected NWMSU 27 HU 24. 58-42 win probability.
                        Looks like Massey has Ouachita 35-14 over Lindenwood.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Here's what I have for all of the teams in SR3. The clear leader of the bunch is fittingly the one getting the bye.
                          Defensive IPR
                          Ferris 44.11%
                          Harding 38.98%
                          Ouachita 32.49%
                          Uindy 31.23%
                          NW 28.33%
                          Lindenwood 14.66%
                          UCM 2.21%
                          Offensive IPR
                          Ferris 45.72%
                          UCM 38.96%
                          Uindy 38.03%
                          Harding 21.65%
                          NW 19.38%
                          Lindenwood 18.61%
                          Ouachita 7.95%
                          Total IPR
                          Ferris 44.92%
                          Uindy 34.63%
                          Harding 30.31%
                          NW 23.85%
                          UCM 20.59%
                          Ouachita 20.22%
                          Lindenwood 16.64%
                          Last edited by bigsig50; 11-19-2019, 08:09 PM.
                          Cool Story Bro

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            BTW, numbers for LU and UIndy differ from the ones I gave up above because I adjusted for just in conference competition. Same goes for Ferris State.
                            Cool Story Bro

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by bigsig50 View Post
                              Here's what I have for all of the teams in SR3. The clear leader of the bunch is fittingly the one getting the bye.

                              Defensive IPR
                              Ferris 44.11%
                              Harding 38.98%
                              Quachita 32.49%
                              Uindy 31.23%
                              NW 28.33%
                              Lindenwood 14.66%
                              UCM 2.21%

                              Offensive IPR
                              Ferris 45.72%
                              UCM 38.96%
                              Uindy 38.03%
                              Harding 21.65%
                              NW 19.38%
                              Lindenwood 18.61%
                              Quachita 7.95%


                              Total IPR
                              Ferris 44.92%
                              Uindy 34.63%
                              Harding 30.31%
                              NW 23.85%
                              UCM 20.59%
                              Quachita 20.22%
                              Lindenwood 16.64%
                              There is no "Q" in Ouachita.

                              Guess Ouachita shouldn't have sat starters in the second half of some of those games. Cost us in the IPR

                              Comment

                              Ad3

                              Collapse
                              Working...
                              X