Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

[Casual_Observer]

NCAA Formula (Based on website manual) = NCAA Rank 1
1.) MN Mankato - 6.505
2.) MN Duluth - 6.505
3.) Colorado Mines - 6.322
4.) Tarleton St - 6.280
5.) CSU-Pueblo - 5
6.) C Washington - 4.543
7.) Midwest TX St - 4.403
8.) Azusa Pacific - 2.847
9.) St Cloud - 2.783
10.) TX A&M Commerce - 2.578


W%, SOS, IRW%, D2 Road% = NCAA Rank 2
1.) MN Mankato - .819
2.) MN Duluth - .819
3.) Colorado Mines - .787
4.) CSU - Pueblo - .780
5.) Tarleton State - .779
6.) Midwest TX St - .697
7.) Central Washington - .660
8.) St Cloud - .656
9.) TX A&M Commerce - .645
10.) Azusa Pacific - .628

[Casual_Observer]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

Here is next week based on Massey Projections:

NCAA Rank 1
1.) Tarleton St - 6.381
2.) MN Mankato - 6.369
3.) MN Duluth - 3.349
4.) Colorado Mines - 3.266
5.) CSU-Pueblo - 4.774
6.) C Washington - 4.238
7.) TX A&M Commerce - 2.920 - Flipped Due to H2H
8.) Midwest TX St - 3.125
9.) Chadron St - 2.668
10.) Azusa Pacific - 2.001

NCAA Rank 2
1.) MN Mankato - .804
2.) Tarleton St - .803
3.) MN Duluth - .799
4.) Colorado Mines - .784
5.) CSU-Pueblo - .760
6.) Midwest TX St - .671
7.) C Washington - .669
8.) TX A&M Commerce - .667
9.) Chadron St - .627
10.) Azusa Pacific - .625

[Turbonium]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

I'm hoping it doesn't end up with Pueblo @ Mines, would love to see Mines against a couple of these teams.

[LionFan]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

Hey CO, love your work on this every year, quick question.

If the following happens:

Tarleton beats Midwestern (I believe this happens)
Mankato, Duluth, Mines, CSU-Pueblo win out (I believe this happens)
Central Washington wins out (I believe this happens)
Commerce wins outs (I believe this happens)

That would set up the interesting issue, and it's Central Washington.

With only 10 D2 games and an awful loss to West Texas, do you think it's possible that Midwestern (even though they would have 2 losses and only 10 D2 games) would be able to hop them and sneak in based on SOS/other factors? I'm starting to think LSC may get 3 in...thoughts?

[Turbonium]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

Hey CO, love your work on this every year, quick question.

If the following happens:

Tarleton beats Midwestern (I believe this happens)
Mankato, Duluth, Mines win out (I believe this happens)
Central Washington wins out (I believe this happens)
Commerce wins outs (I believe this happens)

That would set up the interesting issue, and it's Central Washington.

With only 10 D2 games and an awful loss to West Texas, do you think it's possible that Midwestern (even though they also would have 2 losses and only 10 D2 games) would be able to hop them and sneak in based on SOS/other factors?

It isn't really seen as too bad of a loss right now as it begins and ends at what the WT record is.

[LionFan]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

It isn't really seen as too bad of a loss right now as it begins and ends at what the WT record is.

I'm not talking about right now...I'm talking season end when they end up at least 6-5, possibly 5-6. Compare that to Midwestern's losses to Commerce (OT) and Tarleton (if it happens), it starts looking good for Midwestern.

[Runnin' Cat]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

I'm not talking about right now...I'm talking season end when they end up at least 6-5, possibly 5-6. Compare that to Midwestern's losses to Commerce (OT) and Tarleton (if it happens), it starts looking good for Midwestern.

Midwestern is getting killed in SOS by Humboldt. A 6-5 WTAMU helps CWU. CWU also has the win pct edge, as they would theoretically be 9-1 in D2 games,with Midwestern 8-2.

[LionFan]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

Midwestern is getting killed in SOS by Humboldt. A 6-5 WTAMU helps CWU. CWU also has the win pct edge, as they would theoretically be 9-1 in D2 games,with Midwestern 8-2.

Yea that's the thing I'm trying to figure in my head...what team has the better resume:

A) 2 losses, but they were to #18 Commerce in OT and #8 Tarleton or
B) 1 loss, but it was to West Texas ( 6-5 or 5-6, who lost 44-7 to Tarleton, and appears headed for another rough one from Commerce Sat)

[Turbonium]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

I'm not talking about right now...I'm talking season end when they end up at least 6-5, possibly 5-6. Compare that to Midwestern's losses to Commerce (OT) and Tarleton (if it happens), it starts looking good for Midwestern.

It does, but I'm just not sure a 2 loss team with only 10 D2 games is getting in.

[Runnin' Cat]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

Yea that's the thing I'm trying to figure in my head...what team has the better resume:

A) 2 losses, but they were to #18 Commerce in OT and #8 Tarleton or
B) 1 loss, but it was to West Texas ( 6-5 or 5-6, who lost 44-7 to Tarleton, and appears headed for another rough one from Commerce Sat)

The transitive property has not been proven as it relates to college football.

The RR does not take into account "good" and "bad" losses.

[LionFan]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

The transitive property has not been proven as it relates to college football.

The RR does not take into account "good" and "bad" losses.

So you don't believe there is anything outside of the numbers taken into account?

[Boohaha]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

Committee will not leave CWU out unless they loose to AZUSA Midwestern is in same boat Eastern was in last year, they HAVE TO win out to get in.

Remember last year Pueblo got in on earned access pushing Duluth, Eastern, and Humbolt out one of whom was in that 7 spot despite loosing to WT and Ft lewis both with horrible records, and the fact that the RMAC didnt win a single OOC game either.

They dont care who you lose to, the committee does care about shutting a conference out of the playoffs if they are close to the criteria. Mesa and Pueblo (in my opinion) should not have been 8 and 9 in order to leap frog to 7(which was probably Duluth) for EA, but they were placed there and then Pueblo got in on EA.

The criteria are guidlines, ultimately its a human process and judgement calls come into play.

[Turbonium]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

When you only schedule 10 D2 games, and lose what is likely 2 of them, yeah you'll get left out. If Midwestern can win out and be at 9-1 they'll get in. 8-2 likely isn't going to cut it in the region this year.

[Boohaha]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

When you only schedule 10 D2 games, and lose what is likely 2 of them, yeah you'll get left out. If Midwestern can win out and be at 9-1 they'll get in. 8-2 likely isn't going to cut it in the region this year.

Yep, doesnt matter how good those teams are you lose to either 9>8.

I remember when Rmac and Lsc were sr3, 3 loses and you could still make it. The NSIC kills it in 4 though with all the teams they have, its not hard for them to produce 3+ 9 win teams.

[togthorn]

Re: Regional Ranking Predictions after 8 games

I'm hoping it doesn't end up with Pueblo @ Mines, would love to see Mines against a couple of these teams.

That's one thing I would not like to see in the 1st round.