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  • #16
    Originally posted by Purple Mav Man View Post

    They really love the PSAC in their rankings.
    I noticed!

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Buffalo/Islander Alum View Post

      Ah ok thanks for the clarification. Top 9 increases the chances if the top LSC teams beat up on each other the last few weeks of the season.
      It does?

      Well, "technically" it does. But a 3 loss LSC team has the same chance of making the play-offs as Snoop Dogg quitting weed.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by ASUPops View Post

        It does?

        Well, "technically" it does. But a 3 loss LSC team has the same chance of making the play-offs as Snoop Dogg quitting weed.
        You like to gamble? I will bet you $100 (or any amount you want) if Commerce wins out they make the playoffs.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by ASUPops View Post

          It does?

          Well, "technically" it does. But a 3 loss LSC team has the same chance of making the play-offs as Snoop Dogg quitting weed.
          There is a genuine path I posted in the super regionals thread showing how SR4 ends up with only 6 teams at 2 or fewer losses. Then someone has to get in with 3 losses, and Commerce has to beat out the others.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Buffalo/Islander Alum View Post

            You like to gamble? I will bet you $100 (or any amount you want) if Commerce wins out they make the playoffs.
            No. I do not gamble $. Unless it's for charity.

            But, I will bet you, and the loser sends a donation to St. Judes https://www.stjude.org/promotion/impact-giving-pm.html

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by We-Are-Lions View Post

              There is a genuine path I posted in the super regionals thread showing how SR4 ends up with only 6 teams at 2 or fewer losses. Then someone has to get in with 3 losses, and Commerce has to beat out the others.
              Is that realistic?

              To he honest, I am only following TAMUC and a couple of teams in the LSC. Have no idea what's happening in DII outside of that. I am too busy following D1 (FBS, that is).

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by ASUPops View Post

                Is that realistic?

                To he honest, I am only following TAMUC and a couple of teams in the LSC. Have no idea what's happening in DII outside of that. I am too busy following D1 (FBS, that is).
                The below is what I posted in the other thread. This seems generally possible to me. For the most part, TAMUC needs the top guys to win out and for Sioux Falls to beat Wayne State. It requires a lot to go right, but none of it is any more surprising than Saginaw Valley winning in Commerce. The main part is Commerce needs to win out, and that is what can be controlled.

                ———————————

                10-17-2021, 07:00 PM
                After this weekend offered some clarity here is a very narrow path that helps Commerce get in. Please feel free to check my math if I missed something.

                TAMUC NEEDS:

                NSIC: Augustana and Duluth to win out. Wayne State to lose one of their toss ups.
                NSIC gets at least (2) into playoffs, and has a few 3 loss teams.

                LSC: Midwestern and TAMUC to win out. LSC then gets Midwestern in, and TAMUC is likely the top 3 loss team in the conference due to head to head.

                GNAC: Central Washington is almost guaranteed in barring a huge upset. Maybe Saginaw Valley can be scheduled late?

                RMAC: Western Colorado and Colorado Mines to win out. Then there are a few 3 loss RMAC teams.

                We are then fighting it out with a ton of other teams for the 7th seed. I don’t think I missed anything as I was looking specifically for a path in that didn’t include something like Simon Fraser beating Colorado Mines.

                Comment


                • #23
                  That might be worse than Bennet rankings that eventually became Hero.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by ASUPops View Post

                    It does?

                    Well, "technically" it does. But a 3 loss LSC team has the same chance of making the play-offs as Snoop Dogg quitting weed.
                    There is only one undefeated team in SR4.

                    Angelo is #4 at 5-2 right now.

                    Wayne State is #6 at 5-2 right now.

                    I think a three-loss team could make it with EA.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Brandon View Post

                      That might be worse than Bennet rankings that eventually became Hero.
                      As someone who used to write for that site, you're not wrong. A lot of those rankings made little sense, but that's what I signed up for (though they've pretty much abandoned any coverage underneath FCS, really...
                      Cal U (Pa.) Class of 2014

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by We-Are-Lions View Post

                        The below is what I posted in the other thread. This seems generally possible to me. For the most part, TAMUC needs the top guys to win out and for Sioux Falls to beat Wayne State. It requires a lot to go right, but none of it is any more surprising than Saginaw Valley winning in Commerce. The main part is Commerce needs to win out, and that is what can be controlled.

                        ———————————

                        10-17-2021, 07:00 PM
                        After this weekend offered some clarity here is a very narrow path that helps Commerce get in. Please feel free to check my math if I missed something.

                        TAMUC NEEDS:

                        NSIC: Augustana and Duluth to win out. Wayne State to lose one of their toss ups.
                        NSIC gets at least (2) into playoffs, and has a few 3 loss teams.

                        LSC: Midwestern and TAMUC to win out. LSC then gets Midwestern in, and TAMUC is likely the top 3 loss team in the conference due to head to head.

                        GNAC: Central Washington is almost guaranteed in barring a huge upset. Maybe Saginaw Valley can be scheduled late?

                        RMAC: Western Colorado and Colorado Mines to win out. Then there are a few 3 loss RMAC teams.

                        We are then fighting it out with a ton of other teams for the 7th seed. I don’t think I missed anything as I was looking specifically for a path in that didn’t include something like Simon Fraser beating Colorado Mines.
                        Even so, if TAMUC wins out, the committee will see them as a 7-3 team (the win over the University of Fort Lauderdale isn't considered because it was a non-D2 game). How a 7-3 TAMUC stacks up against an 8-3 NSIC or RMAC team remains to be seen.

                        Central Washington's problem is that out of the 10 games on their schedule, only eight are against D2 competition; the loss to Eastern Washington (FCS) and the upcoming game vs Lincoln-Calif. (non-NCAA) won't even be considered. Even if CWU wins out (their remaining three games are against 2-4 Western Oregon (whom they defeated two weeks ago), 1-6 Western New Mexico and 1-4 Simon Fraser), that leaves them with a 7-1 record vs. D2 schools, which barely meets the minimum requirements for playoff eligibility:

                        In order to be considered during the selection process, a team must:
                        • Have an overall won-lost record of .500 or better against Division II opponents;
                        • Play at least eight Division II opponents during the regular season (there will be an appeals process available in 2021 if a given institution is not able to satisfy this requirement); and
                        • Play at least 10 opponents during the regular season. An institution may submit a waiver request to the football committee for its consideration if a given institution is not able to satisfy this requirement.
                        The only thing that might help CWU are their win over Midwestern State, but that loss to Angelo State (at home, no less) could offset that. Whether or not that helps TAMUC is certainly debatable.
                        Cal U (Pa.) Class of 2014

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Brandon View Post

                          There is only one undefeated team in SR4.

                          Angelo is #4 at 5-2 right now.

                          Wayne State is #6 at 5-2 right now.

                          I think a three-loss team could make it with EA.
                          But from the LSC??

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by ctrabs74 View Post

                            Even so, if TAMUC wins out, the committee will see them as a 7-3 team (the win over the University of Fort Lauderdale isn't considered because it was a non-D2 game). How a 7-3 TAMUC stacks up against an 8-3 NSIC or RMAC team remains to be seen.

                            Central Washington's problem is that out of the 10 games on their schedule, only eight are against D2 competition; the loss to Eastern Washington (FCS) and the upcoming game vs Lincoln-Calif. (non-NCAA) won't even be considered. Even if CWU wins out (their remaining three games are against 2-4 Western Oregon (whom they defeated two weeks ago), 1-6 Western New Mexico and 1-4 Simon Fraser), that leaves them with a 7-1 record vs. D2 schools, which barely meets the minimum requirements for playoff eligibility:

                            In order to be considered during the selection process, a team must:
                            • Have an overall won-lost record of .500 or better against Division II opponents;
                            • Play at least eight Division II opponents during the regular season (there will be an appeals process available in 2021 if a given institution is not able to satisfy this requirement); and
                            • Play at least 10 opponents during the regular season. An institution may submit a waiver request to the football committee for its consideration if a given institution is not able to satisfy this requirement.
                            The only thing that might help CWU are their win over Midwestern State, but that loss to Angelo State (at home, no less) could offset that. Whether or not that helps TAMUC is certainly debatable.
                            If the playoff criteria is the same as the recent past there isn't a D2 team around that comes close to having the D2 non conference schedule Commerce has. They have played Pueblo on the road and home games against West Florida and Saginaw Valley. All three of those teams have winning records. I think there would have to be 7 teams above them with only 2 losses and even that might not be enough with the SOS boost Commerce will get with those teams winning out. That will hurt the NSIC schools if they are still only playing in conference games.

                            Yeah the Central Washington win over a possible LSC champ will be helpful but playing weak teams twice will kill their SOS. They would have had a much stronger case beating Angelo State and Midwestern State as those two teams could likely finish 1 and 2 in the LSC.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Buffalo/Islander Alum View Post

                              If the playoff criteria is the same as the recent past there isn't a D2 team around that comes close to having the D2 non conference schedule Commerce has. They have played Pueblo on the road and home games against West Florida and Saginaw Valley. All three of those teams have winning records. I think there would have to be 7 teams above them with only 2 losses and even that might not be enough with the SOS boost Commerce will get with those teams winning out. That will hurt the NSIC schools if they are still only playing in conference games.

                              Yeah the Central Washington win over a possible LSC champ will be helpful but playing weak teams twice will kill their SOS. They would have had a much stronger case beating Angelo State and Midwestern State as those two teams could likely finish 1 and 2 in the LSC.
                              I can see your argument now.

                              I hope TAMUC does get in. I have enjoyed watching the Lions this year. The rest of the season should be a blast!

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Buffalo/Islander Alum View Post

                                If the playoff criteria is the same as the recent past there isn't a D2 team around that comes close to having the D2 non conference schedule Commerce has. They have played Pueblo on the road and home games against West Florida and Saginaw Valley. All three of those teams have winning records. I think there would have to be 7 teams above them with only 2 losses and even that might not be enough with the SOS boost Commerce will get with those teams winning out. That will hurt the NSIC schools if they are still only playing in conference games.

                                Yeah the Central Washington win over a possible LSC champ will be helpful but playing weak teams twice will kill their SOS. They would have had a much stronger case beating Angelo State and Midwestern State as those two teams could likely finish 1 and 2 in the LSC.
                                CWU needs West Texas A&M to keep winning that helps their SOS with Western Oregon beating them.

                                Comment

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