Mineral Water Bowl - Excelsior Springs, MO (Noon)
Sioux Falls (10-1) vs Central Oklahoma (8-3)

This year's MIAA vs NSIC contest has 2 new squads this time around, but ones that had much different paths to Excelsior Springs. USF found itself in this game after getting snubbed by the NCAA Playoff Selection Committee. This despite going 10-1 in the NSIC and the loss coming in Mankato against the #1 ranked Mavs.



The Bronchos make the trip from Edmond Oklahoma (big suburb on the north side of Oklahoma City) after having a bit of a Cinderella 8-3 season in the very tough MIAA conference. The previous 2 seasons UCO won 2 games per year while a new coaching staff got things straightened out. This year UCO lost to the 3 best teams on their schedule handily, but beat their 8 remaining opponents.

Tale of the Tape (Offense/Defense)

USF = 43ppg/18ppg
UCO = 35ppg/22ppg

USF = 481ypg (268 Pass, 213 Run) / 351ypg (202 Pass, 149 Run)
UCO = 378ypg (188 Pass, 190 Run) / 393ypg (190 Pass, 203 Run)


Breakdown

On paper USF looks like the better team by a distance. However, UCO is a plenty capable squad that's very young, with fire-power. USF was near-dominant in the NSIC (minus the Mankato loss), while UCO gave up more yards than they amassed, which is a head-shaking stat for an 8-3 team.

Some other numbers that jump out are that USF's point differential is 25 while the Bronchos outscored opponents by 13 on average.. In looking at the numbers across the board in the MIAA, they are lower in general than the NSIC in both points scored and yards per game. This could suggest less offense in the league, but I tend to think there are a few more capable defenses in the MIAA than in the NSIC.

During the last week I made a point of watching the better part of 2 different UCO games to get a feel of what type of teams USF would be facing. I find there to be a certain level of excitement when teams from the NSIC get a chance to lock horns with non-conference opponents, not to mention ones who are not real well-known in the D2 football world.

For USF fans..here is what I saw. UCO was operating out of a no-huddle when I was watching them but not really a hurry-up offense. Redshirt-Freshman QB Chas Stallard (#7) reminds me a bit of Trey Heid (Augie) but more running and less passing. Chas has good speed when he gets open field and can make plays with his feet.



Sophomore RB Jake Gandara (#24) might be the guy I was concerned about the most watching the film. Gandara is 5-11, 195lbs, but has breakaway speed. He ran for over 1000 yards in 2014 and had 13 touchdowns, plenty of long ones too. He also runs behind a large offensive line. The running game between the QB and the RB will likely be USF's first order of business defensively.

In the passing game UCO has threats in 2 Seniors, #2 Christian Hood and #11 Marquez Clark. Hood has caught the brunt of the balls this year but Clark had 2200 all purpose yards in 2013 and was a preseason All American wideout. Clark hasn't had the type of year he was likely expecting (only 3 TDs), but was still a 2nd Team all MIAA player, showing the respect he's earned within the league. With Clark’s speed/ability, he will likely be used in a handful of ways Saturday.

The UCO defense appears be the Bronchos weakness. They allow 400 yards per game and have struggled against the better offenses in the MIAA. Giving up 200 yards an outing on the ground is probably the stat that I'd be most concerned with if I'm a UCO supporter.



The problem is that USF can really ground and pound with their QB (Luke Papilion) and RB (Nephi Garcia) combo. Garcia was barely able to play during the last 4 games but still made an impact. A healthy Garcia could mean problems for a team that struggles to stop the run. Luke Papilion's ability to get around the end in the zone-read running game will only further compound this situation.

To the credit of the Bronchos, they did lead the MIAA in turnover margin (+16), as they had only 10 giveaways all season. This very good turnover margin explains 8 wins despite getting outgained on the year.

The USF Defensive backfield will have some interesting matchups with 2 talented wideouts to worry about, but the Coo secondary is #1 in pass defense efficiency in the NSIC and has a D2 leading 23 interceptions as well. USF leads the NSIC in turnover margin at +18. I don't think this will stop UCO from trying to challenge the Coo D since they are a young group who's hungry to prove themselves on a bigger stage. The USF D-Line might have a real challenge with the big front of UCO and this matchup is certainly key for the game.

A big concern for many Cougar fans is what type of USF team will show up on Saturday. Will the Coo no-show the game like Alabama last year in their bad bowl loss to Oklahoma or will USF adopt the mindset of 2013 Pitt State when the Gorillas waffle-stomped SMSU in last year's MWB game. Personally, I have a feeling USF still has the chip on their shoulder from how the last month of the season played out.

Overall, I'm looking for USF to have success on the ground and in the air. UCO looks to be dangerous in the running game and I'm expecting them to make some plays against the Cougars. The Bronchos have a nice mix of playmakers on offense, but I'm not sure they will be dynamic enough to get a win against a good USF defense. Neither team is especially strong in the kicking game but both teams have dangerous return-men. I'm picking a motivated USF team to outlast Central Oklahoma.
USF 44-27


(UCO photos by John Fitzgerald and UCO Athletics)