West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Layton]

[Columbuseer]

...

Granted it's only 10 games, but thus far this year we have shot 40% or better on 3's three times (30%) and taken 75+ shots four times (40%).

In the off season, Ben said the secret to WLU improving was more possessions (which logically should equate in more shots).

Over the last three seasons WLU has gone from 1.37 (19-20), 1.36 (20-21) to 1.33 (this season thus far) in points per FGA. So again, a decline. Fewer shots and a greater % of two pointers.

I know I might be concerned over nothing as we are 9-1 and there is plenty of season for us to "get back to normal," but up to now, I'm a little concerned (9-1 record not withstanding).

Maybe i misunderstood your original premise. I thought the metric was 40% 3pt % and 25 three fga and 75 fga.; all three conditions had to be met. Is that correct? If so, there may be fewer games that meet all 3 conditions.

The decline in pts per fga from 1.37 to 1.33 is a difference of .04 pts per fga. Over 75 fga, that is a difference of 75*.04 = 3 pts per game. One more three or and one would make up difference. We are winning by an average of 17 pts (#14 in usa) so it is not a major factor, compared to shooting % woes in some games.

More possessions is definitely a major factor. It depends on pace of play and turnovers. Given teams are slowing the pace on offense and defending the three, we have to rely on forcing more turnovers. WLU is currently #4 in usa at 20.5 forced turnovers per game

[boatcapt]

That is a really high bar.
There was only 1 game where wlu had 40% threes, 25 3 fga and 75 fga (esu). Very hard to get 75 shots unless one is killing it on the offensive glass and/or committing very few turnovers. Especially when teams are taking the air out of the ball and spreading their defense to limit the three.

less than 10 schools currently shoot 40% threes and have 25 3fga a game (don't know if they meet 75 fga).

one stat that might be useful to consider is points per fga, which is total pts divided by fga.
That incorporates fts, and-ones, threes and twos. Getting an and-one rather than a three fg has the added benefit of drawing a foul.

Hitting 40% of at least 25 three fgas will definitely result in a good pts/fga stat. However, wlu has achieved very high pts per fga without meeting that metric. See chart in earlier post.

WLU eclipsed 40% on 3's nine times in the shortened season last year and 20 times the year before, so it's not THAT rare...54% of the time over the last two years they have eclipsed 40%. 26 times over 75 shots (plus 5 times at 74) over the last two years (48%), so again not really a rare ocurance.

Granted it's only 10 games, but thus far this year we have shot 40% or better on 3's three times (30%) and taken 75+ shots four times (40%).

In the off season, Ben said the secret to WLU improving was more possessions (which logically should equate in more shots).

Over the last three seasons WLU has gone from 1.37 (19-20), 1.36 (20-21) to 1.33 (this season thus far) in points per FGA. So again, a decline. Fewer shots and a greater % of two pointers.

I know I might be concerned over nothing as we are 9-1 and there is plenty of season for us to "get back to normal," but up to now, I'm a little concerned (9-1 record not withstanding).

[Columbuseer]

I've felt that the sweat spot for WLU is shooting 40% from 3 and 60% "inside" from 2. Beyond that they need to take 75 total shots with 25 from 3 and 50 inside. Hit those two metrics and that gives us 90 points from the field. Add 10 points from the line and WLU hits 100 and becomes very hard to beat. Don't hit those numbers, and we have to scramble. This season, far too often we haven't hit those numbers.

That is a really high bar.
There was only 1 game where wlu had 40% threes, 25 3 fga and 75 fga (esu). Very hard to get 75 shots unless one is killing it on the offensive glass and/or committing very few turnovers. Especially when teams are taking the air out of the ball and spreading their defense to limit the three.

less than 10 schools currently shoot 40% threes and have 25 3fga a game (don't know if they meet 75 fga).

one stat that might be useful to consider is points per fga, which is total pts divided by fga.
That incorporates fts, and-ones, threes and twos. Getting an and-one rather than a three fg has the added benefit of drawing a foul.

Hitting 40% of at least 25 three fgas will definitely result in a good pts/fga stat. However, wlu has achieved very high pts per fga without meeting that metric. See chart in earlier post.

[boatcapt]

I've felt that the sweat spot for WLU is shooting 40% from 3 and 60% "inside" from 2. Beyond that they need to take 75 total shots with 25 from 3 and 50 inside. Hit those two metrics and that gives us 90 points from the field. Add 10 points from the line and WLU hits 100 and becomes very hard to beat. Don't hit those numbers, and we have to scramble. This season, far too often we haven't hit those numbers.

Last season we averaged 74.2 shots per game with 40% of those shots coming from 3 and 60% inside from 2. This season we are averaging 71.1 shots per game with 38% from 3 and 62% from 2. Seem like small numbers but that's a 5 PPG difference...add to that the 2 PPG difference in our average made free throws per game and comfortable wins become a lot less comfortable...Which is what we are seeing so far this year.

[Columbuseer]

Here are game by game stats through dec 16 for WLU

• Cumulative Points per possession through 10 games is 1.19.
• WLU is holding teams to a cumulative PPP of 0.97
• Teams are trying to keep possessions in the 70s
• Wide variation in shooting percentages
• With Dalton, Luke and Will not in the lineup, our offensive rebounding efficiency is good, but no longer incredible.

Opponent	Date	Score	FG	FGA	Pct	Three FG	Three FGA	Three FG PCT	FT	FTA	FT PCT	Assist to Turnover Ratio	Points Per FGA	Points Per Possession	Num Possessions	OffReb Effic
WINSTON-SALEM STATE	11/12/21	104-82	37	80	46.3%	9	25	36.0%	21	27	77.8%	2.11	1.30	1.25	83	41.9%
EAST STROUDSBURG	11/13/21	108-93	38	75	50.7%	18	35	51.4%	14	21	66.7%	1.50	1.44	1.23	88	34.3%
at Pitt.-Johnstown	11/17/21	95-83	33	70	47.1%	8	28	28.6%	21	28	75.0%	1.88	1.36	1.25	76	33.3%
ALDERSON BROADDUS	11/20/21	100-70	39	77	50.6%	11	32	34.4%	11	20	55.0%	1.60	1.30	1.16	86	32.6%
at Notre Dame (OH)	11/23/21	81-82	32	72	44.4%	8	23	34.8%	9	19	47.4%	1.80	1.13	1.03	79	34.4%
DAEMEN	11/29/21	63-61	24	60	40.0%	6	24	25.0%	9	19	47.4%	1.14	1.05	0.88	72	28.6%
at West Va. Wesleyan	12/01/21	120-72	44	81	54.3%	19	41	46.3%	13	14	92.9%	2.15	1.48	1.56	77	50.0%
DAVIS & ELKINS	12/04/21	100-69	39	70	55.7%	5	19	26.3%	17	24	70.8%	1.82	1.43	1.20	83	30.0%
CHARLESTON	12/08/21	89-78	29	61	47.5%	10	20	50.0%	21	32	65.6%	1.50	1.46	1.16	77	24.2%
at West Virginia State	12/13/21	86-84	29	65	44.6%	9	26	34.6%	19	22	86.4%	0.75	1.32	1.12	77	26.3%
West Liberty		946	344	711	48.4%	103	273	37.7%	155	226	68.6%	1.59	1.33	1.19	798	34.2%
Opponents		774	279	594	47.0%	67	170	39.4%	149	213	70.0%	0.55	1.30	0.97	794	26.8%

[boatcapt]

Points per possession (ppp)is a more meaningful statistic than points per game. Before the last two games we had significantly improved to 1.20 ppp. But not quite at a typical 1.25 season average, yet.

• Nearly all opponents are using the strategy of slowing the play to use as much of the shot clock as possible. That reduces points due to fewer possessions and keeps scores down.. Only an early blackout and a huge deficit forces opponents to depart from this strategy.
• Wlu has been playing very strong, defensive teams - Daemen, up-j, uc, wvsu.
• Opponents are focusing on stopping the three. Without the threat of rim runs, Zach has no open shots. We have to take what the defense gives us.
• The wide swings in shooting is lowering averages. FT swings from 57% to 85+% for example.

IMHO, we are 9-1 because we have the best half court defense in at least 10 years. Arguably the best press against good teams too. Last week we were in top 5 nationally in forced turnovers at 21 a game.
What is amazing is that we can have abysmal offensive stats and still win against good teams. That defense is needed to make a deep tourney run.

Imho areas for improvement

• Reduce wide swings in shooting %
• Improve offensive rebounding
• More movement away from the ball
• Need rapid improvement in players 8-12 to strengthen the second platoon

What were out PPP for the last game and what is our season PPP including the last two games?

[Columbuseer]

Points per possession (ppp)is a more meaningful statistic than points per game. Before the last two games we had significantly improved to 1.20 ppp. But not quite at a typical 1.25 season average, yet.

• Nearly all opponents are using the strategy of slowing the play to use as much of the shot clock as possible. That reduces points due to fewer possessions and keeps scores down.. Only an early blackout and a huge deficit forces opponents to depart from this strategy.
• Wlu has been playing very strong, defensive teams - Daemen, up-j, uc, wvsu.
• Opponents are focusing on stopping the three. Without the threat of rim runs, Zach has no open shots. We have to take what the defense gives us.
• The wide swings in shooting is lowering averages. FT swings from 57% to 85+% for example.

IMHO, we are 9-1 because we have the best half court defense in at least 10 years. Arguably the best press against good teams too. Last week we were in top 5 nationally in forced turnovers at 21 a game.
What is amazing is that we can have abysmal offensive stats and still win against good teams. That defense is needed to make a deep tourney run.

Imho areas for improvement

• Reduce wide swings in shooting %
• Improve offensive rebounding
• More movement away from the ball
• Need rapid improvement in players 8-12 to strengthen the second platoon

[boatcapt]

During the run up to this season, we heard that the secret sause to WLU improving was increasing our number of quality possessions per game. Through 10 games thus far (approx 1/3 of the season), we are averaging 71.1 shots per game. To put that in context, last season we averaged 74.1. in 2019 74.5 and 71.8, 77.4 and 72.3 the years before. So we are actually shooting the fewest shots we have shot in the last 6+ seasons. Exaserbating that decline in shots is a decline in shooting percentage (.484) which is also the lowest in the last 6 seasons. Another issue is shot selection (2 vs 3). WLU is making 10.3 three point shots per game...Again, lowest in 6+ years.

While I'm happy to be 9-1, I'm not happy with some of the recent performances. WLU used to be a team that on the vast majority of nights would impose it's will on our opponents...we were a shooting/pressing machine that would burry opponents under a blizzard of 3 point shots, pinpoint passes for 2's and easy buckets off turnovers driven by our press. Only occasionally would we have to change what we did to adjust to what our opponent was doing to us. This season so far, we've had to change and adjust to our opponents success far more than in the past. While the ability to adjust is a great ability to have, it certainly is not something a top tier team should have to do on a near nightly basis.

[Columbuseer]

Patrick is starting to distort defenses as he is getting double teams at top of the key. Big problem for opponents.

[Columbuseer]

The mental toughness of this team us amazing!

Some observations:

• seeing emergence of bryce as a dominant, complete player. Warrior on the boards.
• Zach is becoming much more than a shooter. Growing rapidly as a defender and is willing to fight for rebounds and loose balls.
• Wlu can play half court shutdown defense even without generating turnovers
• Ben sarson is growing rapidly. Non stop turbo motor, as when he rebounded missed foul shot and scored late.
• Wvsu took some "me" possessions in the second half with little ball movement that cost them dearly..
• Younger ref(s?) had a bad night. Missed goal tending on bryce shot, wrong walk call on patrick, foul on zach underneath when he did not touch him. Technical on malik after the player grabbed his neck on the ground like it was the ball. I did not see malik hit the player on replay so i am puzzled.
• Wlu committed only 1 turnover in second half.
• Some brilliant coaching moves in last 2 minutes.

1. Zone defense stole a possession.
2. Everyone knew abrams was going to take the shot when down by three. Cmont tried to deny him the in bound pass. As he crossed half court on the right sideline, heavily guarded by cmont, pat sprinted over to double team him, disrupting his rhythm for a potential three and forcing him to a rim run where he was met by one of our bigs who forced a wild shot without fouling. We got the rebound.

[Scrub]

In general, that WVSU team is just too talented to be 5-5. This is why I always say they must be prone to mental lapses. There's no excuse for a team like that to lose winnable games. Every time they play the Hilltoppers--and they're dialed in with their focus--they give WLU a dogfight. If they could find it in them to play with that kind of focus night in and night out, they have the talent to be at the top of the league. A puzzling bunch, those Yellowjackets.

[Layton]

WLU 86 WVSU 84. What the he11 was Kovacevic thinking on the last play? Gets the ball on the inbound with 2 sec to play and throws a lazy cross court pass to no one. WVSU "steals" it at half court and gets the off balance 1/2 court 3 pt try that sails just wide at the buzzer!

34% from 3 range...jeez.

That was incredibly stupid

[boatcapt]

WLU 86 WVSU 84. What the he11 was Kovacevic thinking on the last play? Gets the ball on the inbound with 2 sec to play and throws a lazy cross court pass to no one. WVSU "steals" it at half court and gets the off balance 1/2 court 3 pt try that sails just wide at the buzzer!

34% from 3 range...jeez.

[Layton]

Wow what a gutsy win. Another game where we were cold and they were hitting everything. I have no idea what that was at the end but that would have been a terrible way to lose