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Well, let's hear it. Who wins. Time to go on the record.
My DAY 1 thoughts:
West Liberty vs. Malone
Odd match-up. Very different styles. Neither is real familiar with the other. Malone plays a slower game. WL will attempt to push the tempo as fast as possible. In my knowledge of the GMAC, WL will pose a match-up like they haven't seen all year. My guess is that becomes a bit overwhelming. That said, Malone is a hot team right now and playing with confidence. They've had a week to work up a game plan. If they get sped up, they'll get run out of the building. Their shot is to work the bigs, win the glass and slow the game. That will be easier said than done. Prediction: WL -19.5
Fairmont State vs. Mercyhurst
For starters, why in the world is this game tipping off at 8:45 p.m. ? This is an incredibly hard game to pick. When they met two years ago, Fairmont State had the game won in the final 45 seconds until a late Mercyhurst rally sent the game to OT. The Lakers then pulled away in the extra period. Fairmont State, my opinion, actually plays more like a PSAC team than any other MEC program. Mercyhurst poses many problems, however. For starters, the infamous matchup zone defense. It gives teams fits. Scoring 70 points on the Lakers is a big accomplishment. Not only do teams never see it and can't duplicate it in practice, but it slows offenses down dramatically slower than they are used to playing. Simply put, it frustrates the heck out of teams. Fairmont State will also have to deal with a lot of real big, muscular and aggressive bodies under the glass. The Lakers rebound exceptionally well. My last pro-Mercyhurst point is simply depth. This is the Lakers' deepest team in the past decade. While they very rarely press, they force you to run around and pass the ball around for 40 minutes. Shots are hard to come by and well-earned.
Why I like Fairmont State: The absolute key I've learned in watching years of Mercyhurst basketball is you cannot get behind. They aren't an MEC team. If you get behind 10 points on the Lakers, you have serious problems. They aren't subject to blackouts -- opponents aren't going to make up 10 points on them in 45 seconds. However, they aren't famous for making comebacks. They are the equivalent to a heavy rushing football team. You get Navy down 21 points on the gridiron ... they have a hard time running their way back in to the game. The first half is so vital when you play them. Fairmont has the ability to play a half-court game. With their lack of depth, it may actually help them. Fairmont is also more battle-tested this year. The Lakers played a handful of teams with a pulse, but not many. Mercyhurst also hasn't experienced much drama this year. The second Gannon game got close at the end but that's after Mercyhurst was up more than 20 points. Did they take the foot off the gas? Maybe. FSU has played in many close games -- none more nerve-wracking than last week's win over West Liberty. FSU has three really strong guards -- two perhaps in the elite category (Sanders and Bonner). They can't get frustrated. They aren't going to get many open looks. Mercyhurst also hasn't played in two weeks (officially, anyway).
I like the Lakers to win the game. I expect it to be tight -- 4 or 5 points. The slow pace and defensive pressure/confusion, my opinion, will be the difference. The Lakers don't adapt no matter who they play. It's the same style. FSU is going to have trouble on the glass. The Lakers post is big and deep. They aren't big oafs ... they are players. Mercyhurst 74 Fairmont State 68
My DAY 1 thoughts:
West Liberty vs. Malone
Odd match-up. Very different styles. Neither is real familiar with the other. Malone plays a slower game. WL will attempt to push the tempo as fast as possible. In my knowledge of the GMAC, WL will pose a match-up like they haven't seen all year. My guess is that becomes a bit overwhelming. That said, Malone is a hot team right now and playing with confidence. They've had a week to work up a game plan. If they get sped up, they'll get run out of the building. Their shot is to work the bigs, win the glass and slow the game. That will be easier said than done. Prediction: WL -19.5
Fairmont State vs. Mercyhurst
For starters, why in the world is this game tipping off at 8:45 p.m. ? This is an incredibly hard game to pick. When they met two years ago, Fairmont State had the game won in the final 45 seconds until a late Mercyhurst rally sent the game to OT. The Lakers then pulled away in the extra period. Fairmont State, my opinion, actually plays more like a PSAC team than any other MEC program. Mercyhurst poses many problems, however. For starters, the infamous matchup zone defense. It gives teams fits. Scoring 70 points on the Lakers is a big accomplishment. Not only do teams never see it and can't duplicate it in practice, but it slows offenses down dramatically slower than they are used to playing. Simply put, it frustrates the heck out of teams. Fairmont State will also have to deal with a lot of real big, muscular and aggressive bodies under the glass. The Lakers rebound exceptionally well. My last pro-Mercyhurst point is simply depth. This is the Lakers' deepest team in the past decade. While they very rarely press, they force you to run around and pass the ball around for 40 minutes. Shots are hard to come by and well-earned.
Why I like Fairmont State: The absolute key I've learned in watching years of Mercyhurst basketball is you cannot get behind. They aren't an MEC team. If you get behind 10 points on the Lakers, you have serious problems. They aren't subject to blackouts -- opponents aren't going to make up 10 points on them in 45 seconds. However, they aren't famous for making comebacks. They are the equivalent to a heavy rushing football team. You get Navy down 21 points on the gridiron ... they have a hard time running their way back in to the game. The first half is so vital when you play them. Fairmont has the ability to play a half-court game. With their lack of depth, it may actually help them. Fairmont is also more battle-tested this year. The Lakers played a handful of teams with a pulse, but not many. Mercyhurst also hasn't experienced much drama this year. The second Gannon game got close at the end but that's after Mercyhurst was up more than 20 points. Did they take the foot off the gas? Maybe. FSU has played in many close games -- none more nerve-wracking than last week's win over West Liberty. FSU has three really strong guards -- two perhaps in the elite category (Sanders and Bonner). They can't get frustrated. They aren't going to get many open looks. Mercyhurst also hasn't played in two weeks (officially, anyway).
I like the Lakers to win the game. I expect it to be tight -- 4 or 5 points. The slow pace and defensive pressure/confusion, my opinion, will be the difference. The Lakers don't adapt no matter who they play. It's the same style. FSU is going to have trouble on the glass. The Lakers post is big and deep. They aren't big oafs ... they are players. Mercyhurst 74 Fairmont State 68
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