First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

[Toucanbird]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

If I remember right, pretty much everybody has "bad" conference loss except NW. The SBU (14-12, 7-10 MIAA) loss wasn't horrid. The MW loss was bad. Some might not consider the S&T loss all that bad with 11-13 overall record, but their 5-12 GLVC record is horrid. I don't think MSSU is in the mix yet even with the win yesterday against NW. MSSU will get some help with if they beat UCM, but win over PSU doesn't help. If they get 2 seed in MIAA Tournament and make at very minimum the MIAA final, then maybe. I truly think UCM, MSSU or UNK has to win MIAA to get automatic bid.

I can vouch that Missouri S&T is tough. They really challenged Arkansas Tech in Russellville, but we ultimately pulled out a 91-88 overtime win, but they really never went away. It was a pretty memorable game though. It was a New Years game where Bennie Lufile broke the GAC rebounding record (22 rebounds) and Alex Brown scored the 2nd most points in a single game in GAC history (40 points).

Although, I'm sure if they played today, Tech would win more decisively. We're currently on an 11-game win streak, which I am guessing with NWMSU going down is the longest winning streak in the region right now.

[Stanger86]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

If you want my honest opinion...

Yes, SMSU will pass UAM. While it came with rough circumstances, UAM's loss at home to Southern Arkansas really hurts them.

As for NWMSU, I'd say they would have to lose two more games just to be considered for dropping out of the top spot and even then, a team like SMSU, MSU-Moorhead, or Arkansas Tech would have to win out.

This was exactly what I was looking for, thanks. And I'd probably agree as well.

The reason I brought it up. A win out for SMSU would potentially mean wins over two more regionally-ranked opponents.

[CatFan88]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

If you want my honest opinion...

Yes, SMSU will pass UAM. While it came with rough circumstances, UAM's loss at home to Southern Arkansas really hurts them.

As for NWMSU, I'd say they would have to lose two more games just to be considered for dropping out of the top spot and even then, a team like SMSU, MSU-Moorhead, or Arkansas Tech would have to win out.

If I had to guess what the top 10 will look like next week, probably like this...

1. Northwest Missouri (21-1, 20-1)
2. Southwest Minnesota State (22-5, 22-5)
3. MSU-Moorhead (22-4, 22-4)
4. Arkansas Tech (18-4, 18-4)
5. Arkansas-Monticello (17-4, 17-4)
6. Augustana (18-7, 18-7)
7. East Central (18-7, 18-7)
8. Northern State (20-7, 20-7)
9. Upper Iowa (19-9, 19-9)
10. Missouri Southern (14-10, 14-10)

The only other school that I'm considering is Nebraska-Kearney, who has a 16-7 D2/in-region record, but MSSU head-to-head and MUCH stronger OOC SOS might give them the advantage.

I could see that. MSSU has H2H, both lost to MW which is a bad conference loss. MSSU gets advantage of win against NW and much better OOC schedule. UNK didn't have that bad D2 OOC loss like MSSU. Against Central Region top 10, UNK is 0-2, MSSU 1-3. 3 games is tough to make up, however, if you aren't in top 8, it doesn't matter and neither is top 8 at this point IMO.

[mosofan]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

I could see that. MSSU has H2H, both lost to MW which is a bad conference loss. MSSU gets advantage of win against NW and much better OOC schedule. UNK didn't have that bad D2 OOC loss like MSSU. Against Central Region top 10, UNK is 0-2, MSSU 1-3. 3 games is tough to make up, however, if you aren't in top 8, it doesn't matter and neither is top 8 at this point IMO.

Great thing is ... there is still lots of basketball to be played and anything can happen. IMO, for a 2nd MIAA team to make it, they either have to win the MIAA tournament (I don't see that happening) ... or they have to run the table to the tournament championship game, keep that game close vs NW, and just hope things break their way in the other conferences. MIAA teams (other than NW) are living on a hope and lots of prayers!

[mosofan]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

I'm not saying the MIAA is some SEC powerhouse conference and the NSIC is the Sun Belt.....but is the strength of conference different enough that one can truly say the NSIC #4 is obviously stronger than any MIAA team besides NWMO? The message to me seems to be that the NSIC with four selections is PAC 10 quality, and the MIAA is the Horizon league with just its winner heading to the dance.

If you use football in this analogy, the MIAA may be the SEC (Alabama, then nobody else). The NSIC may be like the Big 10 (receiving lots of love in the rankings, but will ultimately disappoint in the tournament). Does that make the GAC like the ACC (underrated based on no recent champions, but ultimately where this year's regional champion comes from)?

[Toucanbird]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

If you use football in this analogy, the MIAA may be the SEC (Alabama, then nobody else). The NSIC may be like the Big 10 (receiving lots of love in the rankings, but will ultimately disappoint in the tournament). Does that make the GAC like the ACC (underrated based on no recent champions, but ultimately where this year's regional champion comes from)?

GAC is probably closer to the PAC-12 where there are three VERY good teams and everyone else is just sort of "meh."

If NWMSU hosts, I don't really expect any of the GAC schools to go in there and steal the region. Then again, Arkansas Tech has the current longest win streak in the region going, so anything can happen.

[Randy]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

Southern has the 15th best D2 W/L% and P.I. in the region. Their Opp W/L% is very good but their Opp Opp W/L% isn't. I don't think the Northwest win is enough to get them to the top 10.

[MisterWizard]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

IF Missouri Southern can win their next four in a row and make it to the MIAA championship game against Northwest Missouri (and that's a big IF), then I think they deserve a bid to the regionals as the MIAA's second best team.

That would be a six game winning streak, a regular season split with Northwest and Central Missouri, and a 4-0 record against Kearney, Fort Hays, Central Oklahoma, and Washburn. 2-0 against a pair of good NSIC teams (Mankato and St, Cloud).

A loss to Pitt State tomorrow or Central Missouri Thursday and toss that all out the window.

[fanofnsic]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

In looking at the NSIC side of things the way this is setting up for teams that make the regional. Southwest, Moorhead locks. Northern/Augie second round match up will be a play in game with winner in as a lock, loser will need some help. Upper Iowa if they win 2 has a chance to make it. If they win 3 which means they beat Moorhead they are more than likely in. With automatic bids involved this could all change easily if upsets happen in the other conference tournaments.

[Purple Mav Man]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

In looking at the NSIC side of things the way this is setting up for teams that make the regional. Southwest, Moorhead locks. Northern/Augie second round match up will be a play in game with winner in as a lock, loser will need some help. Upper Iowa if they win 2 has a chance to make it. If they win 3 which means they beat Moorhead they are more than likely in. With automatic bids involved this could all change easily if upsets happen in the other conference tournaments.

I'm of the opinion that neither SW or Moorhead will win the NSIC tourney. If neither does, that can throw off the seedlings for sure. However Augustana is a top candidate to win the conference tourney (if it's not the aforementioned teams) and they are already 'in'. So that wouldn't change the top 8 except for where there are seeded. But if SCSU or Mankato somehow get hot (or Davis simply puts the Huskies on his back) that would shake things up quite a bit.

[Purple Mav Man]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

IF Missouri Southern can win their next four in a row and make it to the MIAA championship game against Northwest Missouri (and that's a big IF), then I think they deserve a bid to the regionals as the MIAA's second best team.

That would be a six game winning streak, a regular season split with Northwest and Central Missouri, and a 4-0 record against Kearney, Fort Hays, Central Oklahoma, and Washburn. 2-0 against a pair of good NSIC teams (Mankato and St, Cloud).

A loss to Pitt State tomorrow or Central Missouri Thursday and toss that all out the window.

To continue with your IF... what IF SCSU or MSU makes it to the NSIC finals? Would that help MSSU's chances if they also make the MIAA finals?

[mosofan]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

To continue with your IF... what IF SCSU or MSU makes it to the NSIC finals? Would that help MSSU's chances if they also make the MIAA finals?

All this speculation and what-if scenarios is part of what make this time of year so fun. We can all dream and hope the best for our team!

[MisterWizard]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

To continue with your IF... what IF SCSU or MSU makes it to the NSIC finals? Would that help MSSU's chances if they also make the MIAA finals?

Yes, I would think so. MSSU also lost to Arkansas Tech who looked really good in Joplin back in December and has a nice winning streak right now. If Tech won the GAC, that could also be a little bonus for MSSU on selection Sunday.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying the Lions of Joplin are a top 8 right now. But if things went well this week and next, they are certainly right there in the mix, IMO.

[fanofnsic]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

I'm of the opinion that neither SW or Moorhead will win the NSIC tourney. If neither does, that can throw off the seedlings for sure. However Augustana is a top candidate to win the conference tourney (if it's not the aforementioned teams) and they are already 'in'. So that wouldn't change the top 8 except for where there are seeded. But if SCSU or Mankato somehow get hot (or Davis simply puts the Huskies on his back) that would shake things up quite a bit.

So you think Augie is in no matter what? If they lose to Northern still in? I just see that one as a play in game right now. Upper Iowa has most work to do but if they can get by Moorhead I think they could do it.

SCSU is not going anywhere even with Gage Davis. I didn't comment on the other thread about him but he doesn't play any defense, shows little leadership and hasn't carried them any where so far this year. He reminds me of Boogie Cousins since he is on the move, puts up numbers but doesn't bring much else to the table and has never won anything of importance. I do not have time to look up the record they have against .500 teams and above but I am guessing its not the greatest. They beat up well on the awful side of the NSIC.

[NSU4LIFE]

Re: First Men's NCAA Central Region Rankings Released (2/15)

So you think Augie is in no matter what? If they lose to Northern still in? I just see that one as a play in game right now. Upper Iowa has most work to do but if they can get by Moorhead I think they could do it.

SCSU is not going anywhere even with Gage Davis. I didn't comment on the other thread about him but he doesn't play any defense, shows little leadership and hasn't carried them any where so far this year. He reminds me of Boogie Cousins since he is on the move, puts up numbers but doesn't bring much else to the table and has never won anything of importance. I do not have time to look up the record they have against .500 teams and above but I am guessing its not the greatest. They beat up well on the awful side of the NSIC.

If talking conference record, 2-6 against. 500+