Central Region MBB Bracketology

[Moorhead123]

Be curious if anyone knows how many times, if ever, an NSIC team has not made the ncaa regional after winning 15 conference games and/or 20 overall regular season games (not including NSIC tournament games)?

[Moorhead123]

Yeah, as a Dragons fan I would want to believe Moorhead123 's claim, but I can't get there yet. The January stretch was just so rough, and at that time I thought MSUM had to win the conf tourney to get in. Their recent play has changed my mind a bit, as I think if MSUM can win even just one game in the Pentagon they should be safe (especially since that should place them over Duluth for sure). But in the scenario Thunder describes ^, I would be nervous.

I think only CSP & SMSU are truly safe for the NSIC.

I’m making assumption that 5 NSIC teams make regional. I don’t see any way 3 teams could overtake Msum (assuming CSp and SMSU are locks) even if Msum were to lose first NSIC tournament game. But, I’m making the assumption that the selection committee puts very significant weight on conference head-to-head matchups (which they absolutely should imo). If it doesn’t, then I suppose there is a scenario (scsu and Winona in NSIC championship game) that could be trouble for dragons. I mean SCSU and Mankato already have 11 losses on the season compared with 8 for dragons…

[Purple Mav Man]

Be curious if anyone knows how many times, if ever, an NSIC team has not made the ncaa regional after winning 15 conference games and/or 20 overall regular season games (not including NSIC tournament games)?

Didn’t have to go back very far…Not sure how many times. But Minot fits the bill last year.
20-9 overall / 15-7 NSIC

[Moorhead123]

Didn’t have to go back very far…Not sure how many times. But Minot fits the bill last year.
20-9 overall / 15-7 NSIC

Good point

[LukeMcConnell1]

Frankly, with everyone holding 7-11 losses in the NSIC bubble category, I'm not sure a single team can feel secure. CSP probably the safest. SWMN is close, but those two losses against Augustana aren't great when things are this tight. NSIC tourney should be AWESOME because everyone will be playing like they need to play their way in.

[Augieholic]

SWMN is close, but those two losses against Augustana aren't great when things are this tight.

Thank you for the reminder that Augustana swept the fraudulent NSIC Co Champs

[wsuguy87]

Dragons blow out Mankato. Dragon healthy. Won 10 of last 11. Dragons are a lock for regional.

The Dragons are legit. No question. They are my favorite to win the conference tournament and to make noise in the regional.

Despite the disaster of a weekend for my Warriors, I still think they are in decent to good shape for the Regional. The formulas (RPI, KPI, SOS) all love them and have some key wins like the one over CSP and the sweep of UMD.

[Moorhead123]

The Dragons are legit. No question. They are my favorite to win the conference tournament and to make noise in the regional.

Despite the disaster of a weekend for my Warriors, I still think they are in decent to good shape for the Regional. The formulas (RPI, KPI, SOS) all love them and have some key wins like the one over CSP and the sweep of UMD.

Yes, that was not the weekend Winona fans wanted at all. Dragons are definitely legit, getting healthier and playing well at the right time of year. I think many have them as one of the favorites in NSIC tournament, which to me means (as an admittedly biased observer) they have demonstrated more than enough during their prior 28 games to deserve an automatic ncaa bid. Never know what happens in one and done tournament time, which is why I don’t see any real possibility where a quarterfinal loss should stop the dragon train from reaching regional play.

[GHawks]

With SNU now having lost 4 straight, Washburn winning the MIAA tournament almost assuredly gets 6 NSIC teams in.

I think Minot is out if they don’t beat CSP in the quarters (assuming they win Wednesday-not a guarantee by any means).

Maybe in this scenario, Cloud vs Kato is a play in game for the last spot? Again, assuming Cloud wins on Wednesday (likely).

I don’t envy the selection committee if it doesn’t play out exactly like this.

With how this season has gone, I’m fully expecting mayhem.

Go Ichabods!

[Stanger86]

Thank you for the reminder that Augustana swept the fraudulent NSIC Co Champs

Fraudulent?!

[NSICHoops]

I dont agree that SMSU is fraudulent. However, they certainly have not played up to their capabilities the last few weeks

[GHawks]

I dont agree that SMSU is fraudulent. However, they certainly have not played up to their capabilities the last few weeks

It’s definitely not a fraudulent title. They didn’t play well the latter part of the year and they definitely benefited from an easier conference schedule, but I just consider that good karma for playing the #1 SOS in the country the year before.

[Augieholic]

Fraudulent?!

They lost to Concordia, the NSIC gave SMSU the "co-champions" moniker because the rules say teams have to play twice to factor in head-to-head which is dumb with an unbalanced schedule. Concordia is the true regular season champion.

[Thunder]

Frankly, with everyone holding 7-11 losses in the NSIC bubble category, I'm not sure a single team can feel secure. CSP probably the safest. SWMN is close, but those two losses against Augustana aren't great when things are this tight. NSIC tourney should be AWESOME because everyone will be playing like they need to play their way in.

With another look at the numbers, SMSU has a reason to be nervous for the same scenario I laid out for Moorhead. If the Mustangs lose to Winona they could be pretty nervous on selection day. I think any of the top 6 that make it to the semis are in pretty good shape. I think Minot and SCSU have basically become bid stealers at this point. But I think that side of the bracket is probably more favorable than the other side. There should be some very good, very intense basketball played in the Pentagon over the next week.

[Moorhead123]

With another look at the numbers, SMSU has a reason to be nervous for the same scenario I laid out for Moorhead. If the Mustangs lose to Winona they could be pretty nervous on selection day. I think any of the top 6 that make it to the semis are in pretty good shape. I think Minot and SCSU have basically become bid stealers at this point. But I think that side of the bracket is probably more favorable than the other side. There should be some very good, very intense basketball played in the Pentagon over the next week.

Ok, now you’ve definitely gone off the deep end. :) CSP and SMSU are locked. Don’t care how the numbers look. If the prior 28 games mean anything these two teams must be locks. No chance 3 or 4 teams could move ahead of these two. Only one team can win the NSIC tournament, unless there was a rule change I haven’t heard about yet.