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Regional ranking predictions, Volume 2

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  • Regional ranking predictions, Volume 2

    Atlantic Region
    1. Indiana (22-2) [1]
    2. West Liberty (22-4) [3]
    3. Charleston (21-5) [5]
    4. Fairmont State (19-6) [4]
    5. Shippensburg (19-6) [2]
    6. Virginia State (19-8) [6]
    7. Johnson C. Smith (19-7) [10]
    8. Mercyhurst (16-7) [NR]
    9. West Virginia State (17-7) [7]
    10. Virginia Union (18-10) [NR]
    Bowie State's presence in last week's rankings is messing with my head a bit. If the committee repeats the same process that put the Bulldogs into the rankings, it may very well result in Virginia Union being ranked this week. VUU has the #10 regional RPI and a sweep of Virginia State. (VSU, VUU, and Johnson C. Smith have earned three of the four first-round byes available in the CIAA tournament, which begins Tuesday in Charlotte.)

    It's also quite possible that Pitt Johnstown stays in. I think West Virginia State's wins over the #2 and #3 teams in the region will be enough to keep WVSU in. California will now have a win over a ranked opponent, with Mercyhurst presumably cracking the top 10; completing the sweep would be extremely valuable to the Vulcans.

    Other regions to follow.

  • #2
    Central Region
    1. Northwest Missouri State (23-1) [1]
    2. Southern Nazarene (20-7) [4]
    3. Southeastern Oklahoma State (18-7) [2]
    4. Rogers State (19-5) [7]
    5. Northern State (22-6) [5]
    6. Missouri Southern (16-7) [3]
    7. Minnesota–Duluth (20-8) [6]
    8. Oklahoma Baptist (17-8) [8]
    9. Henderson State (17-7) [10]
    10. Sioux Falls (20-7) [9]
    If the teams to be included in the top 10 were clear last week, they're even more so now.

    The 2-6 spots are close together in my weighted average, but when taking head-to-head and ranked wins into account, they seem to fall pretty clearly into the order I have them here. It seems odd for Rogers State to leapfrog Northern State after two unranked wins for both, but RSU's opponents were somewhat better and the games were on the road.

    Comment


    • #3
      East Region
      1. Bridgeport (21-3) [1]
      2. St. Thomas Aquinas (21-4) [2]
      3. Jefferson (24-2) [3]
      4. Le Moyne (19-7) [4]
      5. St. Anselm (17-8) [5]
      6. Stonehill (17-10) [6]
      7. Daemen (22-6) [7]
      8. Dominican NY (20-6) [8]
      9. Bentley (17-10) [NR]
      10. Franklin Pierce (14-10) [10]
      Bridgeport's loss to Molloy may knock them from the top spot. However, there's no case to move St. Thomas Aquinas past them; the case to be made is for Jefferson. If Jefferson had been #2 last week, I would project them at #1. But they were #3 behind STAC; I don't really know why, but nothing has happened to change that. Therefore, I'm keeping the Purple Knights at #1.

      Last week's #9 and #10 both went 0-2; however, the likely #11 and #12 both went 1-1, so it's hard to say that one of them should jump in. No one outside those four seems likely to make it. Noting the committee's apparent bias toward the NE10 and against the CACC, I ruled Post out of the equation and selected from the three NE10 teams for the final two spots.

      Comment


      • #4
        Midwest Region
        1. Indianapolis (20-5) [1]
        2. Bellarmine (18-6) [3]
        3. Southern Indiana (20-5) [7]
        4. Truman (18-8) [2]
        5. UMSL (17-5) [6]
        6. Ferris State (22-5) [4]
        7. Grand Valley State (19-6) [5]
        8. Michigan Tech (17-8) [8]
        9. Findlay (17-6) [10]
        10. Southwest Baptist (14-7) [NR]
        I don't know, maybe it's not realistic to expect this much shakeup when only two teams in the top 8 lost any games. But the numbers now have Southern Indiana on the same plane as the rest of the 2-7 range, and that (as well as Truman's loss) seems to change a lot of the group dynamics.

        With Davenport's two losses, someone had to take their place in the top 10. Southwest Baptist gets the edge here over Drury due to wins over Bellarmine and USI.

        Comment


        • #5
          South Region

          There's a decent chance the top 10 remains unchanged. I don't think #5 Palm Beach Atlantic's win over #2 Nova Southeastern is enough to change either team's ranking.

          Comment


          • #6
            South Central Region
            1. West Texas A&M (24-1) [1]
            2. St. Edward's (20-3) [2]
            3. Dixie State (21-6) [3]
            4. Dallas Baptist (16-7) [8]
            5. Angelo State (17-6) [6]
            6. Black Hills State (17-8) [4]
            7. Colorado Mines (19-9) [7]
            8. Lubbock Christian (14-8) [9]
            9. Texas A&M Kingsville (17-8) [5]
            10. Colorado Mesa (15-9) [NR]
            What a week it was in the RMAC, as four regionally ranked teams combined to go 0-6 against unranked teams. Colorado Mines preceded their unranked loss with a ranked win over Black Hills State, and is 4-1 against ranked teams.

            Colorado Mesa went 2-0 this week, but remains winless against ranked teams; if the committee gives them the same treatment as last week, perhaps Regis or South Dakota Mines will take the final spot. (Texas A&M Kingsville presents the same problem, but I can't see anyone to put in instead.)

            Comment


            • #7
              Southeast Region
              1. Lincoln Memorial (25-1) [1]
              2. UNC Pembroke (21-5) [2]
              3. Queens NC (20-6) [3]
              4. Augusta (19-7) [5]
              5. Catawba (18-8) [4]
              6. Lander (19-7) [6]
              7. King (19-6) [7]
              8. Belmont Abbey (17-9) [NR]
              9. Tusculum (18-10) [10]
              10. Southern Wesleyan (16-11) [9]
              Southern Wesleyan's three ranked wins keep them in my top 10 instead of USC Aiken. The 4-7 teams are virtually tied in the weighted average.

              Comment


              • #8
                West Region
                1. UC San Diego (26-1) [1]
                2. Azusa Pacific (23-3) [2]
                3. Cal Poly Pomona (18-6) [3]
                4. Chico State (19-6) [4]
                5. Cal State San Bernardino (19-6) [5]
                6. Seattle Pacific (19-6) [6]
                7. Point Loma Nazarene (20-6) [7]
                8. Western Oregon (17-7) [8]
                9. Western Washington (15-9) [9]
                10. Northwest Nazarene (14-7) [NR]
                Concordia (CA)'s loss to Dominican probably knocks them out of the 10th spot. I'm guessing Northwest Nazarene takes their spot after completing the sweep of Western Oregon.

                Comment

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