Performance Indicators 2016-17

[Tyler Madsen]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

There's a definitive top-6 (in some semblance of order) in the region then an absolute muck of mucks for the next 9-10 spots? The teams in that group to earn a spot are most likely going to have to win out the regular season, then make a deep run in their conference tournament.

[schnautza]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Oooh, how exciting!

5	Ferris State	Midwest	GLIAC	20-3	86.96%	16.43	48.52%	50.85%
6	Bellarmine	Midwest	GLVC	18-3	85.71%	16.38	51.03%	51.10%
7	Southern Indiana	Midwest	GLVC	19-2	90.48%	16.24	47.32%	50.51%
36	Kentucky Wesleyan	Midwest	GMAC	19-2	90.48%	14.81	39.63%	51.52%
39	Quincy	Midwest	GLVC	16-4	80.00%	14.70	45.41%	50.98%
44	Wisconsin-Parkside	Midwest	GLVC	14-4	77.78%	14.61	45.09%	51.08%
49	Truman State	Midwest	GLVC	14-6	70.00%	14.25	49.86%	48.79%
49	Findlay	Midwest	GLIAC	15-5	75.00%	14.25	47.19%	51.71%
69	Wayne State (Mich.)	Midwest	GLIAC	12-8	60.00%	13.60	54.45%	49.74%
73	Lake Superior State	Midwest	GLIAC	12-7	63.16%	13.58	51.41%	51.81%
78	Ashland	Midwest	GLIAC	11-8	57.89%	13.42	52.74%	51.18%
97	Michigan Tech	Midwest	GLIAC	13-10	56.52%	13.09	53.33%	50.24%
100	Lewis	Midwest	GLVC	14-8	63.64%	13.00	46.58%	51.09%
107	Saginaw Valley State	Midwest	GLIAC	12-9	57.14%	12.76	51.20%	51.15%
110	Indianapolis	Midwest	GLVC	11-9	55.00%	12.70	51.29%	50.66%
113	Rockhurst	Midwest	GLVC	11-8	57.89%	12.63	52.62%	49.31%
116	Ohio Dominican	Midwest	GLIAC	12-9	57.14%	12.57	49.29%	50.79%
118	Drury	Midwest	GLVC	10-8	55.56%	12.50	53.89%	49.51%
120	Walsh	Midwest	GLIAC	13-8	61.90%	12.48	42.96%	51.70%
127	Hillsdale	Midwest	GLIAC	11-11	50.00%	12.27	53.26%	50.46%
128	Grand Valley State	Midwest	GLIAC	10-10	50.00%	12.25	51.63%	51.17%
173	Missouri S&T	Midwest	GLVC	6-11	35.29%	11.12	57.99%	48.75%
185	Alderson Broaddus	Midwest	GMAC	11-10	52.38%	10.86	41.06%	50.09%
207	Tiffin	Midwest	GLIAC	6-13	31.58%	10.37	54.69%	49.93%
208	Northern Michigan	Midwest	GLIAC	7-14	33.33%	10.33	54.25%	50.68%
217	Davis & Elkins	Midwest	GMAC	9-12	42.86%	10.14	45.79%	49.37%
219	Malone	Midwest	GMAC	7-10	41.18%	10.12	45.10%	46.15%
221	Missouri-St. Louis	Midwest	GLVC	8-12	40.00%	10.10	46.94%	49.90%
224	Saint Joseph's	Midwest	GLVC	7-13	35.00%	9.95	48.92%	50.03%
237	Cedarville	Midwest	GMAC	8-12	40.00%	9.65	45.47%	47.36%
239	Oakland City	Midwest	IND	1-4	20.00%	9.60	64.46%	42.73%
260	McKendree	Midwest	GLVC	5-11	31.25%	8.75	49.25%	48.94%
265	Northwood	Midwest	GLIAC	4-20	16.67%	8.71	56.04%	50.21%
266	William Jewell	Midwest	GLVC	5-13	27.78%	8.61	48.96%	50.19%
272	Trevecca Nazarene	Midwest	GMAC	5-16	23.81%	8.38	48.79%	47.36%
274	Lake Erie	Midwest	GLIAC	4-20	16.67%	8.33	53.48%	49.95%
287	Illinois Springfield	Midwest	GLVC	2-15	11.76%	7.88	57.12%	48.09%
300	Ohio Valley	Midwest	GMAC	1-17	5.56%	7.11	56.85%	45.83%
302	Maryville	Midwest	GLVC	3-16	15.79%	7.05	45.38%	49.96%
305	Salem International	Midwest	IND	1-20	4.76%	6.52	51.53%	45.55%

[KnightStalker]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

It is getting tight. Eyeballing the remainder of the schedule and assuming no upsets of the top 3, I think the #1 in the PI at the end of the regular season will be the winner of the BU-USI game. That game should give the winner enough to pass Ferris. The rest of the schedule is pretty similar for the top 3 (identical for 2 and 3 of course.) Ferris only has one road game left against 4-20 Northwood, so a win there would actually bring down their average. Their home games left have a couple above .500 teams right now (they may not be by the end of the year though) so I think they have reached the highest they can get. USI and BU's schedules are probably worse, playing 4 sub .500 teams although 2 are on the road. It's that last game where one of them will pick up some points. I am sure schnautza can figure that out pretty quickly*, assuming the three win out (except for the loser of BU-USI, of course.)\\

*I forgot that what the other teams do will be a big factor. For instance, Quincy is at .800 right now and BU and USI have a road victory against them. Quincy has some tough road games left so they most likely will not be .750 at the end. That would hurt BU and USI, although if they win out it could hurt them still because BU and USI have wins against the teams Quincy would have beaten. I am getting confused....

[KnightStalker]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

As for the rest, I think Indy will need to win out for sure now and at least get to the final of the GLVC tourney. I still think they could do it with the way they are playing. I think even though Findlay is 8 right now they are safer than Truman, UWP or Quincy. Just think the GLIAC will end up with at least 3 in the tourney and Findlay is a solid #2 in the GLIAC right now. I think the Committee will realize that the GLIAC is more evenly competitive, thus the records are not as good as the top GLVC teams. Quincy has a chance to really solidify their position or play themselves out of the tourney with 3 very tough road games left--UWP, Lewis and Truman. Win all three they are a solid 4 or higher. Win 2 and definitely in. Lose 2 and might need some help or do well in GLVC tourney. Lose all 3 and they will need some definite help.

[schnautza]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

The best I could do would be assume that all teams stay in their current "tier" of win%. Or maybe go with a simulation of Massey's predictions. There is a lot at play right now. Let's look at some of the teams "on the edge":

At the moment, UWP is one loss away from falling below 75%. The good news is that this will hurt both USI, BU, and Ferris State equally, since Ferris played UWP in the non-conf portion.

Quincy is two losses from falling below 75%. This also affects all three teams.


USI has Bluefield State right at 25% - their next two games are Ohio Valley and Alderson Broaddus. I think Bluefield has a chance of going 1-1 to stay above 25%

Bellarmine has UAH to worry about, one loss away from dropping below 75%. Massey shows them going 5-1 against the remainder of their schedule, so they are probably safe, although several of those games are close margins.

Ferris has Findlay, Hillsdale, and GVSU all on the edge (75, 50, 50). It appears that they have more to lose than USI or BU. Looking at Massey's predictions, Findlay should win out (5 games), but by narrow margins. Hillsdale looks like they will split 2-2, effectively staying right at 50%. GVSU is predicted to go 2-3, which drops them below 50%.

Summary - Ferris is in the most danger of losing points with GVSU having the most potential to drop a tier. It appears that all other opponents are pretty much locked in or irrelevant.

This does not consider tournament play.

[schnautza]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Simulation:
Ignoring every other game in the league, inputting only Ferris, USI, and BU games (this forces GVSU to drop below 50% in the final game, as predicted). Assume all three win out, and two scenarios of the USI/BU matchup:

USI beats BU:
Ferris 16.25
USI 16.23
Bellarmine 15.81

BU beats USI:
Bellarmine 16.27
Ferris 16.25
USI 15.77

With the remaining games, Ferris has more "good" wins left to snag with both Michigan Tech and LSSU.

[KnightStalker]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Hmm, surprised USI wouldn't be higher if they beat BU. That win would be significantly worth more than any other win the three teams could get. Shows how close it really is. I have always believed that the Committee has made up its mind by the Saturday of the conference tourneys on the #1 seed, but it looks as though it will be decided on the final of those two tourneys unless none of the three win their tournaments.

My guess is that despite the final PI the #1 seed chances for the top three are thus:
For BU:
1. BU wins out, including GLVC.
2. BU wins out regular season, loses final of GLVC and Ferris takes one loss or more.

For Ferris:
1. Ferris wins out, including GLIAC and BU takes one loss or more.
2. Ferris wins out regular season, the winner of BU-USI game does not make it to the GLVC final.

For USI:
1. Win out, including GLVC tourney and Ferris takes one loss or more.
2. Win out regular season, get farther than BU in tourney(actually just not have BU win tourney) and Ferris takes one loss or more.

In the end, I am assuming that one of the three will win out thru the regular season. In fact, I think 2 of the three will but that maybe a silly assumption on my part. Ferris has looked really strong in their big win streak and I just don't see anybody beating them but the GLIAC has a lot of teams with the ability to beat anybody on a given night. BU and USI have avoided the big upset loss so far but we know USI in recent history seems to have one a year and BU does not have a real love affair with the St. Louis trip.

[kwcpantherfan]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Too confusing, just split the difference and have KWC host.

I'm kidding, of course. Personal preference would be either USI or BU hosting, for obvious reasons (based on the assumption that KWC would not be in consideration, which I believe is the case). If Bellarmine wins out, AND wins the GLVC tourney, I'm not sure what rational argument could be made that they should not host. My gut instinct, however, tells me that Ferris has a better chance of winning out and winning their tourney, so I think there's a very good chance that the regional will reside in Michigan this year. Hopefully my gut is wrong.

[KnightStalker]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Too confusing, just split the difference and have KWC host.

I'm kidding, of course. Personal preference would be either USI or BU hosting, for obvious reasons (based on the assumption that KWC would not be in consideration, which I believe is the case). If Bellarmine wins out, AND wins the GLVC tourney, I'm not sure what rational argument could be made that they should not host. My gut instinct, however, tells me that Ferris has a better chance of winning out and winning their tourney, so I think there's a very good chance that the regional will reside in Michigan this year. Hopefully my gut is wrong.

I agree completely. I think BU gets the edge if they win out but that Ferris has the better chance of winning out with their tourney being played at home. If all was fair in the world, KWC would be the host but its just a year too early. Beefed up GMAC next year and a 26-2 record and there would be no question. Maybe if the top 3 each lose 2 of their remaining games and then KWC would get it? I too would rather be going to Owensboro or Evansville than Big Rapids or Wisconsin or Western Illinois for that matter.

[schnautza]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

BU does not have a real love affair with the St. Louis trip.

I was just thinking about that. What are the chances that BU chokes on one game in STL this season?

[KnightStalker]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

I was just thinking about that. What are the chances that BU chokes on one game in STL this season?

I'm not one to lay the old whammy on my team, so I think there is always a possibility(although the way BU has been playing, I think it is pretty slight) for one of those games to go awry. If I had to pick I would think it would be the Saturday game at UMSL. UMSL always has some talent plus it is the dreaded 2nd game of the road trip which always gives teams fits. I don't think there will be any overlooking either of those teams right now though. Too much on the line.

[Looking For 9]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Some very good thoughts..this is the kind of input that makes this site worth well... thanks guys

[WalkerEaglefan83]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

I agree with Looking For 9, this info is what I come for.

[schnautza]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Going into tonight's games...just a few shifted around since last time I posted.

4	Ferris State	Midwest	GLIAC	20-3	86.96%	16.43	48.50%	50.88%
5	Bellarmine	Midwest	GLVC	18-3	85.71%	16.38	51.35%	51.02%
7	Southern Indiana	Midwest	GLVC	19-2	90.48%	16.24	47.60%	50.46%
36	Kentucky Wesleyan	Midwest	GMAC	19-2	90.48%	14.81	40.14%	51.13%
40	Quincy	Midwest	GLVC	16-4	80.00%	14.70	45.41%	51.01%
42	Wisconsin-Parkside	Midwest	GLVC	14-4	77.78%	14.61	45.09%	51.12%
49	Truman State	Midwest	GLVC	14-6	70.00%	14.25	49.96%	48.81%
49	Findlay	Midwest	GLIAC	15-5	75.00%	14.25	47.19%	51.83%
69	Wayne State (Mich.)	Midwest	GLIAC	12-8	60.00%	13.60	54.54%	49.85%
74	Lake Superior State	Midwest	GLIAC	12-7	63.16%	13.58	51.41%	51.87%
77	Ashland	Midwest	GLIAC	11-8	57.89%	13.42	52.66%	51.34%
99	Michigan Tech	Midwest	GLIAC	13-10	56.52%	13.09	53.33%	50.31%
101	Lewis	Midwest	GLVC	14-8	63.64%	13.00	46.58%	51.13%
108	Saginaw Valley State	Midwest	GLIAC	12-9	57.14%	12.76	51.27%	51.23%
111	Indianapolis	Midwest	GLVC	11-9	55.00%	12.70	51.16%	50.65%
112	Drury	Midwest	GLVC	10-8	55.56%	12.67	54.18%	49.59%
114	Rockhurst	Midwest	GLVC	11-8	57.89%	12.63	52.62%	49.37%
117	Ohio Dominican	Midwest	GLIAC	12-9	57.14%	12.57	49.76%	50.59%
123	Walsh	Midwest	GLIAC	13-8	61.90%	12.48	43.24%	51.52%
128	Hillsdale	Midwest	GLIAC	11-11	50.00%	12.27	53.48%	50.39%
130	Grand Valley State	Midwest	GLIAC	10-10	50.00%	12.25	51.63%	51.22%
175	Missouri S&T	Midwest	GLVC	6-11	35.29%	11.12	57.99%	48.79%
188	Alderson Broaddus	Midwest	GMAC	11-10	52.38%	10.86	40.90%	50.11%
206	Tiffin	Midwest	GLIAC	6-13	31.58%	10.37	54.69%	50.05%
208	Northern Michigan	Midwest	GLIAC	7-14	33.33%	10.33	54.25%	50.75%
215	Malone	Midwest	GMAC	8-10	44.44%	10.22	42.97%	46.94%
218	Davis & Elkins	Midwest	GMAC	9-12	42.86%	10.14	45.53%	49.46%
220	Missouri-St. Louis	Midwest	GLVC	8-12	40.00%	10.10	46.94%	49.95%
224	Saint Joseph's	Midwest	GLVC	7-13	35.00%	9.95	48.92%	50.11%
235	Cedarville	Midwest	GMAC	8-12	40.00%	9.65	45.71%	47.28%
237	Oakland City	Midwest	IND	1-4	20.00%	9.60	63.18%	43.11%
261	McKendree	Midwest	GLVC	5-11	31.25%	8.75	49.25%	49.00%
265	Northwood	Midwest	GLIAC	4-20	16.67%	8.71	56.04%	50.30%
267	William Jewell	Midwest	GLVC	5-13	27.78%	8.61	48.83%	50.30%
270	Trevecca Nazarene	Midwest	GMAC	5-16	23.81%	8.38	49.08%	47.16%
273	Lake Erie	Midwest	GLIAC	4-20	16.67%	8.33	53.74%	49.85%
287	Illinois Springfield	Midwest	GLVC	2-15	11.76%	7.88	57.33%	48.06%
299	Maryville	Midwest	GLVC	3-16	15.79%	7.05	45.38%	50.02%
300	Ohio Valley	Midwest	GMAC	1-18	5.26%	7.00	56.36%	45.67%
305	Salem International	Midwest	IND	1-20	4.76%	6.52	51.14%	45.91%

[kwcpantherfan]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

KWC wins tonight and Saturday would bring our PI to 15.13
Quincy wins tonight and Saturday would bring theirs to 15.31
UWP wins tonight and Saturday would bring theirs to 15.1

So, assuming KWC wins both this week, if Quincy wins both of their games (one of which is at Parkside) they will pass us. If they split, losing to Parkside but beating Lewis, they land at 14.77

Meanwhile, the gap between KWC and USI (and above) is big enough that even if USI lost to both Maryville and UMSL, they still would hold a slight edge on KWC (15.26 to 15.13)

None of that attempting to take into consideration adjustments due to other teams moving from one win % tier to another, which obviously could move any of those numbers around slightly.