Performance Indicators 2016-17

[alumnifan]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

I still don't see Ferris hosting the regional. Despite what the PI has them at. Bellarmine will get the 1 seed. Conference tournaments still have to be played, and two more regular season games. Anything can happen in the GLIAC tourney.

[KnightStalker]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

I think #1seed will be decided Thursday with BU and USI game. BU wins they are it. USI wins, they will be it unless BU wins the GLVC tourney.

[schnautza]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

10	Ferris State	Midwest	GLIAC	24-4	85.71%	15.93	47.12%	51.41%	24-4	85.71%	4-3	57.1%
13	Bellarmine	Midwest	GLVC	23-3	88.46%	15.81	48.19%	51.01%	23-3	88.46%	6-2	75.0%
17	Southern Indiana	Midwest	GLVC	23-3	88.46%	15.42	45.68%	50.32%	21-3	87.50%	4-2	66.7%
26	Findlay	Midwest	GLIAC	20-5	80.00%	15.12	46.99%	51.16%	20-5	80.00%	2-2	50.0%
27	Kentucky Wesleyan	Midwest	GMAC	25-2	92.59%	15.11	38.65%	50.08%	24-2	92.31%	2-2	50.0%
34	Quincy	Midwest	GLVC	20-5	80.00%	14.88	47.90%	50.65%	20-5	80.00%	3-4	42.9%
49	Wisconsin-Parkside	Midwest	GLVC	17-6	73.91%	14.35	48.08%	50.88%	17-6	73.91%	2-3	40.0%
50	Truman State	Midwest	GLVC	17-8	68.00%	14.32	52.78%	48.81%	16-8	66.67%	3-4	42.9%
59	Wayne State (Mich.)	Midwest	GLIAC	16-9	64.00%	13.96	51.89%	50.72%	16-9	64.00%	1-5	16.7%
72	Lake Superior State	Midwest	GLIAC	15-9	62.50%	13.63	51.46%	51.63%	15-9	62.50%	3-3	50.0%
78	Ashland	Midwest	GLIAC	14-9	60.87%	13.52	51.34%	50.90%	14-9	60.87%	2-4	33.3%
91	Hillsdale	Midwest	GLIAC	15-11	57.69%	13.15	51.29%	50.23%	15-11	57.69%	2-5	28.6%
107	Saginaw Valley State	Midwest	GLIAC	15-11	57.69%	12.81	50.17%	51.38%	15-11	57.69%	4-4	50.0%
114	Michigan Tech	Midwest	GLIAC	15-13	53.57%	12.71	53.61%	50.59%	15-13	53.57%	2-9	18.2%
118	Walsh	Midwest	GLIAC	15-11	57.69%	12.54	46.39%	50.92%	15-11	57.69%	1-4	20.0%
120	Drury	Midwest	GLVC	14-9	60.87%	12.52	48.02%	50.42%	13-8	61.90%	0-5	0.0%
130	Indianapolis	Midwest	GLVC	14-11	56.00%	12.40	51.28%	50.39%	14-9	60.87%	2-6	25.0%
134	Grand Valley State	Midwest	GLIAC	13-12	52.00%	12.28	51.22%	51.31%	13-11	54.17%	3-6	33.3%
139	Ohio Dominican	Midwest	GLIAC	13-12	52.00%	12.16	50.20%	50.18%	13-12	52.00%	1-4	20.0%
140	Lewis	Midwest	GLVC	15-12	55.56%	12.15	50.24%	50.43%	15-12	55.56%	1-7	12.5%
153	Rockhurst	Midwest	GLVC	12-12	50.00%	11.79	53.68%	49.61%	12-12	50.00%	2-6	25.0%
169	Alderson Broaddus	Midwest	GMAC	13-12	52.00%	11.44	44.75%	47.63%	13-12	52.00%	1-5	16.7%
187	Malone	Midwest	GMAC	11-11	50.00%	11.00	42.09%	46.67%	11-11	50.00%	0-2	0.0%
196	Davis & Elkins	Midwest	GMAC	11-13	45.83%	10.75	47.72%	48.07%	11-11	50.00%	0-5	0.0%
199	Missouri S&T	Midwest	GLVC	9-13	40.91%	10.68	51.54%	49.89%	9-13	40.91%	1-5	16.7%
205	Saint Joseph's	Midwest	GLVC	11-15	42.31%	10.50	47.76%	49.78%	11-14	44.00%	1-6	14.3%
222	Northern Michigan	Midwest	GLIAC	8-18	30.77%	10.19	55.16%	50.83%	8-18	30.77%	2-8	20.0%
233	Tiffin	Midwest	GLIAC	7-17	29.17%	10.00	54.06%	49.88%	7-17	29.17%	0-7	0.0%
239	Cedarville	Midwest	GMAC	9-15	37.50%	9.92	47.71%	47.06%	9-15	37.50%	0-6	0.0%
243	Missouri-St. Louis	Midwest	GLVC	9-16	36.00%	9.76	50.23%	49.47%	9-16	36.00%	1-6	14.3%
248	Oakland City	Midwest	IND	1-4	20.00%	9.60	64.84%	42.60%	1-2	33.33%	0-3	0.0%
249	William Jewell	Midwest	GLVC	8-16	33.33%	9.54	50.01%	50.51%	7-15	31.82%	0-7	0.0%
271	Illinois Springfield	Midwest	GLVC	4-18	18.18%	8.50	57.78%	48.99%	4-18	18.18%	0-9	0.0%
273	McKendree	Midwest	GLVC	5-17	22.73%	8.41	51.04%	49.37%	5-17	22.73%	0-7	0.0%
275	Northwood	Midwest	GLIAC	4-25	13.79%	8.38	57.48%	50.39%	4-23	14.81%	0-10	0.0%
277	Lake Erie	Midwest	GLIAC	4-24	14.29%	8.36	54.11%	49.98%	4-24	14.29%	0-6	0.0%
281	Trevecca Nazarene	Midwest	GMAC	8-19	29.63%	8.30	44.59%	48.29%	8-19	29.63%	1-7	12.5%
299	Maryville	Midwest	GLVC	4-20	16.67%	7.42	49.20%	49.56%	4-20	16.67%	0-6	0.0%
301	Ohio Valley	Midwest	GMAC	2-22	8.33%	7.29	51.86%	45.58%	2-22	8.33%	0-5	0.0%
309	Salem International	Midwest	IND	2-24	7.69%	6.42	46.97%	47.26%	2-22	8.33%	0-4	0.0%
314	Purdue Northwest	Midwest	GLIAC	0-1	0.00%	3.00	42.31%	47.76%	0-1	0.00%	0-0	0.0%

[schnautza]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

8	Ferris State	Midwest	GLIAC	24-4	85.71%	15.93	47.20%	51.40%	24-4	85.71%	4-3	57.1%
12	Bellarmine	Midwest	GLVC	23-3	88.46%	15.81	48.21%	50.98%	23-3	88.46%	6-2	75.0%
19	Southern Indiana	Midwest	GLVC	23-3	88.46%	15.31	45.56%	50.30%	21-3	87.50%	4-2	66.7%
25	Kentucky Wesleyan	Midwest	GMAC	26-2	92.86%	15.18	38.46%	49.98%	25-2	92.59%	2-2	50.0%
26	Findlay	Midwest	GLIAC	20-5	80.00%	15.12	47.01%	51.33%	20-5	80.00%	2-2	50.0%
39	Quincy	Midwest	GLVC	20-5	80.00%	14.64	47.99%	50.57%	20-5	80.00%	3-4	42.9%
52	Wisconsin-Parkside	Midwest	GLVC	17-6	73.91%	14.22	48.13%	50.86%	17-6	73.91%	2-3	40.0%
54	Truman State	Midwest	GLVC	18-8	69.23%	14.12	52.20%	49.01%	17-8	68.00%	3-4	42.9%
57	Wayne State (Mich.)	Midwest	GLIAC	16-9	64.00%	13.96	52.04%	50.77%	16-9	64.00%	1-5	16.7%
67	Lake Superior State	Midwest	GLIAC	15-9	62.50%	13.63	51.51%	51.68%	15-9	62.50%	3-3	50.0%
72	Ashland	Midwest	GLIAC	14-9	60.87%	13.52	51.36%	51.01%	14-9	60.87%	2-4	33.3%
85	Hillsdale	Midwest	GLIAC	15-11	57.69%	13.15	51.46%	50.19%	15-11	57.69%	2-5	28.6%
102	Saginaw Valley State	Midwest	GLIAC	15-11	57.69%	12.81	50.16%	51.45%	15-11	57.69%	4-4	50.0%
105	Michigan Tech	Midwest	GLIAC	15-13	53.57%	12.71	53.67%	50.62%	15-13	53.57%	2-9	18.2%
114	Walsh	Midwest	GLIAC	15-11	57.69%	12.54	46.40%	50.86%	15-11	57.69%	1-4	20.0%
125	Indianapolis	Midwest	GLVC	15-11	57.69%	12.38	50.60%	50.45%	15-9	62.50%	2-6	25.0%
126	Drury	Midwest	GLVC	15-9	62.50%	12.38	47.83%	50.62%	14-8	63.64%	0-5	0.0%
131	Grand Valley State	Midwest	GLIAC	13-12	52.00%	12.28	51.20%	51.42%	13-11	54.17%	3-6	33.3%
140	Ohio Dominican	Midwest	GLIAC	13-12	52.00%	12.16	50.19%	50.28%	13-12	52.00%	1-4	20.0%
141	Lewis	Midwest	GLVC	16-12	57.14%	12.14	49.92%	50.34%	16-12	57.14%	1-7	12.5%
158	Rockhurst	Midwest	GLVC	12-13	48.00%	11.64	54.03%	49.44%	12-13	48.00%	2-6	25.0%
163	Alderson Broaddus	Midwest	GMAC	14-12	53.85%	11.58	44.78%	47.67%	14-12	53.85%	1-5	16.7%
184	Malone	Midwest	GMAC	11-11	50.00%	11.00	42.12%	46.67%	11-11	50.00%	0-2	0.0%
199	Davis & Elkins	Midwest	GMAC	11-14	44.00%	10.64	48.04%	47.99%	11-12	47.83%	0-5	0.0%
211	Missouri S&T	Midwest	GLVC	9-14	39.13%	10.43	52.06%	50.04%	9-14	39.13%	1-6	14.3%
216	Saint Joseph's	Midwest	GLVC	11-16	40.74%	10.30	48.36%	49.69%	11-15	42.31%	1-6	14.3%
219	Northern Michigan	Midwest	GLIAC	8-18	30.77%	10.19	55.24%	50.84%	8-18	30.77%	2-8	20.0%
227	Tiffin	Midwest	GLIAC	7-17	29.17%	10.00	54.15%	49.95%	7-17	29.17%	0-7	0.0%
227	Cedarville	Midwest	GMAC	10-15	40.00%	10.00	46.10%	47.43%	10-15	40.00%	0-6	0.0%
240	Missouri-St. Louis	Midwest	GLVC	9-17	34.62%	9.69	50.54%	49.62%	9-17	34.62%	1-6	14.3%
246	Oakland City	Midwest	IND	1-4	20.00%	9.60	65.02%	42.79%	1-2	33.33%	0-3	0.0%
253	William Jewell	Midwest	GLVC	8-16	33.33%	9.29	49.81%	50.50%	7-15	31.82%	0-7	0.0%
269	Trevecca Nazarene	Midwest	GMAC	8-20	28.57%	8.54	46.54%	47.71%	8-20	28.57%	1-8	11.1%
276	Northwood	Midwest	GLIAC	4-25	13.79%	8.38	57.67%	50.36%	4-23	14.81%	0-10	0.0%
277	Illinois Springfield	Midwest	GLVC	4-18	18.18%	8.36	57.69%	48.95%	4-18	18.18%	0-9	0.0%
280	Lake Erie	Midwest	GLIAC	4-24	14.29%	8.36	54.34%	49.88%	4-24	14.29%	0-6	0.0%
282	McKendree	Midwest	GLVC	5-17	22.73%	8.27	50.82%	49.65%	5-17	22.73%	0-7	0.0%
297	Maryville	Midwest	GLVC	4-20	16.67%	7.42	49.25%	49.71%	4-20	16.67%	0-6	0.0%
300	Ohio Valley	Midwest	GMAC	2-23	8.00%	7.20	51.28%	45.64%	2-23	8.00%	0-5	0.0%
310	Salem International	Midwest	IND	2-24	7.69%	6.42	47.39%	47.07%	2-22	8.33%	0-4	0.0%
314	Purdue Northwest	Midwest	GLIAC	0-1	0.00%	3.00	40.74%	48.36%	0-1	0.00%	0-0	0.0%

[Knightmoves]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

USI must have had a pre-conference opponent fall into another bracket. Points out the weakness in the PI and probably why at some level it's not that good at separating teams that are very close to each other in PI.

All mathematical SOS indicies, which is what the PI really is, are somewhat flawed. To me, SOS is really about how many good teams you play in the course of the season. Mathematical SOS ratings are unduly influenced by the terrible records of the weak teams played by the rated team. Simply stated, if you started the season against Salem International, Ohio Valley, and Bellarmine and won all three, you would have a terrible SOS mathmatically, but in reality if 1 out of 3 teams you play are very good teams, you have a tougher schedule than most people. The real question to me is how many teams do you play that have a realistic chance of beating you? I guess that is what the ranked record criteria helps to correct, although there are more capable teams played than just the ranked teams.

[schnautza]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

As I've done in past years, here is a "modified PI" in which I eliminate the drift.
My formula is as simple as it can get. Just take the opponent's win% and multiply by 12. Then add the following number:

HOME win: 12
NEUTRAL win: 13
ROAD win: 14
HOME loss: 0
NEUTRAL loss: 1
ROAD loss: 2

Then, these numbers are averaged, exactly as you would have them in the original PI.

In theory, these numbers should be CLOSE to what the original PI was, but this adjusts nicely for those teams on the cusp of one of the "tiers" 25/50/75

Here's what I got. Note how ridiculously close USI and Ferris are.

6	Bellarmine	Midwest	GLVC	23-3	88.46%	17.44	48.21%	50.98%	23-3	88.46%	6-2	75.0%
16	Ferris State	Midwest	GLIAC	24-4	85.71%	16.99	47.20%	51.40%	24-4	85.71%	4-3	57.1%
17	Southern Indiana	Midwest	GLVC	23-3	88.46%	16.97	45.56%	50.30%	21-3	87.50%	4-2	66.7%
26	Kentucky Wesleyan	Midwest	GMAC	26-2	92.86%	16.47	38.46%	49.98%	25-2	92.59%	2-2	50.0%
31	Quincy	Midwest	GLVC	20-5	80.00%	16.32	47.99%	50.57%	20-5	80.00%	3-4	42.9%
34	Findlay	Midwest	GLIAC	20-5	80.00%	16.20	47.01%	51.33%	20-5	80.00%	2-2	50.0%
48	Wisconsin-Parkside	Midwest	GLVC	17-6	73.91%	15.69	48.13%	50.86%	17-6	73.91%	2-3	40.0%
50	Truman State	Midwest	GLVC	18-8	69.23%	15.65	52.20%	49.01%	17-8	68.00%	3-4	42.9%
68	Wayne State (Mich.)	Midwest	GLIAC	16-9	64.00%	14.92	52.04%	50.77%	16-9	64.00%	1-5	16.7%
76	Lake Superior State	Midwest	GLIAC	15-9	62.50%	14.68	51.51%	51.68%	15-9	62.50%	3-3	50.0%
87	Ashland	Midwest	GLIAC	14-9	60.87%	14.47	51.36%	51.01%	14-9	60.87%	2-4	33.3%
103	Hillsdale	Midwest	GLIAC	15-11	57.69%	14.14	51.46%	50.19%	15-11	57.69%	2-5	28.6%
104	Drury	Midwest	GLVC	15-9	62.50%	14.11	47.83%	50.62%	14-8	63.64%	0-5	0.0%
107	Indianapolis	Midwest	GLVC	15-11	57.69%	14.07	50.60%	50.45%	15-9	62.50%	2-6	25.0%
117	Michigan Tech	Midwest	GLIAC	15-13	53.57%	13.90	53.67%	50.62%	15-13	53.57%	2-9	18.2%
121	Saginaw Valley State	Midwest	GLIAC	15-11	57.69%	13.86	50.16%	51.45%	15-11	57.69%	4-4	50.0%
129	Lewis	Midwest	GLVC	16-12	57.14%	13.74	49.92%	50.34%	16-12	57.14%	1-7	12.5%
145	Walsh	Midwest	GLIAC	15-11	57.69%	13.49	46.40%	50.86%	15-11	57.69%	1-4	20.0%
146	Grand Valley State	Midwest	GLIAC	13-12	52.00%	13.38	51.20%	51.42%	13-11	54.17%	3-6	33.3%
150	Ohio Dominican	Midwest	GLIAC	13-12	52.00%	13.26	50.19%	50.28%	13-12	52.00%	1-4	20.0%
154	Rockhurst	Midwest	GLVC	12-13	48.00%	13.20	54.03%	49.44%	12-13	48.00%	2-6	25.0%
172	Alderson Broaddus	Midwest	GMAC	14-12	53.85%	12.80	44.78%	47.67%	14-12	53.85%	1-5	16.7%
199	Malone	Midwest	GMAC	11-11	50.00%	12.10	42.12%	46.67%	11-11	50.00%	0-2	0.0%
200	Davis & Elkins	Midwest	GMAC	11-14	44.00%	12.08	48.04%	47.99%	11-12	47.83%	0-5	0.0%
203	Missouri S&T	Midwest	GLVC	9-14	39.13%	11.99	52.06%	50.04%	9-14	39.13%	1-6	14.3%
217	Saint Joseph's	Midwest	GLVC	11-16	40.74%	11.77	48.36%	49.69%	11-15	42.31%	1-6	14.3%
228	Oakland City	Midwest	IND	1-4	20.00%	11.40	65.02%	42.79%	1-2	33.33%	0-3	0.0%
235	Northern Michigan	Midwest	GLIAC	8-18	30.77%	11.28	55.24%	50.84%	8-18	30.77%	2-8	20.0%
240	Cedarville	Midwest	GMAC	10-15	40.00%	11.21	46.10%	47.43%	10-15	40.00%	0-6	0.0%
244	Missouri-St. Louis	Midwest	GLVC	9-17	34.62%	11.14	50.54%	49.62%	9-17	34.62%	1-6	14.3%
247	William Jewell	Midwest	GLVC	8-16	33.33%	11.02	49.81%	50.50%	7-15	31.82%	0-7	0.0%
248	Tiffin	Midwest	GLIAC	7-17	29.17%	11.00	54.15%	49.95%	7-17	29.17%	0-7	0.0%
264	Illinois Springfield	Midwest	GLVC	4-18	18.18%	10.10	57.69%	48.95%	4-18	18.18%	0-9	0.0%
275	Trevecca Nazarene	Midwest	GMAC	8-20	28.57%	9.94	46.54%	47.71%	8-20	28.57%	1-8	11.1%
280	McKendree	Midwest	GLVC	5-17	22.73%	9.73	50.82%	49.65%	5-17	22.73%	0-7	0.0%
284	Northwood	Midwest	GLIAC	4-25	13.79%	9.51	57.67%	50.36%	4-23	14.81%	0-10	0.0%
291	Lake Erie	Midwest	GLIAC	4-24	14.29%	9.31	54.34%	49.88%	4-24	14.29%	0-6	0.0%
296	Maryville	Midwest	GLVC	4-20	16.67%	8.95	49.25%	49.71%	4-20	16.67%	0-6	0.0%
305	Ohio Valley	Midwest	GMAC	2-23	8.00%	8.19	51.28%	45.64%	2-23	8.00%	0-5	0.0%
311	Salem International	Midwest	IND	2-24	7.69%	7.61	47.39%	47.07%	2-22	8.33%	0-4	0.0%
314	Purdue Northwest	Midwest	GLIAC	0-1	0.00%	4.89	40.74%	48.36%	0-1	0.00%	0-0	0.0%

[JDonAB92]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

I haven't looked at these all year. If you have the South Region PI data, can you post them in the Alderson Broaddus thread? We have an alum coaching West FL and I would like to see how they stack up going into the last week. Thanks.

[Knightmoves]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Schnautza, love it. I guarentee this is the only place in the world where one can find modified performance indicators for NCAA Division 2 men's basketball. I had forgotten that we got into this whole "bracket creep" issue last year.

We probably need to remember that the committee does not put as much stock in the PI as we do, it is only suppossed to me one of the criteria. I will say, however, that the above modified PI hits the nail right on the head. If selection Sunday were today, the teams and seedings are exactly correct, IMO.

[DJ Silky Panties]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

If ferris wins the gliac mini they most certainly will add two more ranked wins. If Bu loses rd 1 and USI doesnt win three Ferris will host and pull another Gliac into the regional.

the big ? is what happens if Happy pulls a frown and doesnt win GMAC mini?

[Knightmoves]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

If ferris wins the gliac mini they most certainly will add two more ranked wins. If Bu loses rd 1 and USI doesnt win three Ferris will host and pull another Gliac into the regional.

the big ? is what happens if Happy pulls a frown and doesnt win GMAC mini?

I think you are right, but then again, I'm not sure what you are saying.

[Looking For 9]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

what he said is "Watson should be fired"

[KnightStalker]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Not sure Ferris would add two more ranked wins. Hillsdale will not be ranked and that is their first game. Wayne St. is ranked but plays Michigan Tech who is not ranked but is a higher seed than Wayne. A win over Wayne probably is not enough to get MT ranked. As for the final, there is several possibilities of an unranked team making it to the final. There is also the fact that Ferris has not done that great at home this year.

I did a few calculations using schnautza's modified PI and basically Ferris would have to have BU lose the first round game to get into the top spot. There are some other combinations that could do it but two wins by BU will definitely put them on top of the PI. I am still of the mind that BU is the committee's choice already but I don't think a bad loss to Drury would help.

[Knightmoves]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

It does seem like, although I could be wrong, that the committee has put less stock in conference tournament games than regular season games. I do think that BU will slip to second, however, if they lose to Drury and Ferris wins two games. In other words, Drury is a must win.

[DUPanther]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

It does seem like, although I could be wrong, that the committee has put less stock in conference tournament games than regular season games. I do think that BU will slip to second, however, if they lose to Drury and Ferris wins two games. In other words, Drury is a must win.

The chances of Bellarmine winning this game have got to be at least 90%. Drury just played their best game of the year, but that's the first time this semester they've put a whole game together. It all depends on which Tevin Foster shows up. If he plays like he did against Rockhurst it could be close. If he doesn't Bellarmine will coast.

[Knightmoves]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

The chances of Bellarmine winning this game have got to be at least 90%. Drury just played their best game of the year, but that's the first time this semester they've put a whole game together. It all depends on which Tevin Foster shows up. If he plays like he did against Rockhurst it could be close. If he doesn't Bellarmine will coast.

I thought there was a good chance that Drury would lose to Rockhurst, but they crushed them. Rockhurst played a lot better game against Bellarmine than did Drury, so Drury's win against Rockhurst should defintitely make Bellarmine take notice. I am pretty sure that Drury is a better team than they showed in Louisville. I would also say the same for Lewis and Parkside.