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Week 7 Projected Regional Rankings

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Redwing View Post
    I suspect each committee can handle this differently, but with teams playing a different number of games this season, is that a significant factor? Selfishly, I'm curious since you don't seem to penalize GV much for playing one (maybe even 2??) less games. Could it be their SOS is high enough to offset that vs others? And with respect to SOS, are you using values only against teams already played or do you include all the teams that are on the schedule? Clearly one doesn't know what the future holds, but those games already played by those future teams are known and will impact the SOS.s .. sounds confusing, but I think you get it. I ask, since some teams have weak teams coming up and others strong ones.
    Thanks for doing these. We know they're not official, but it's fun eyeballing it anyway!
    I think it becomes less of a factor as the season goes on. There's more of a difference between 5 and 7 games than there is between 9 and 11.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Inkblot View Post
      Matchups with these rankings: https://i.imgur.com/hr5nLg1.png

      1.1 Bentley
      1.5 Notre Dame at 1.4 Indiana
      1.7 Charleston at 1.2 Kutztown
      1.6 Findlay at 1.3 Shepherd

      2.1 Valdosta State
      2.6 West Florida at 2.4 Albany State
      2.8 Wingate at 2.2 Bowie State
      2.5 West Georgia at 2.3 West Alabama

      3.1 Ferris State
      3.5 Nebraska–Kearney at 3.4 Lindenwood
      3.6 Northwest Missouri State at 3.2 Harding
      4.5 Augustana at 3.3 Grand Valley State

      4.1 Colorado Mines
      4.6 Wayne State NE at 4.4 Angelo State
      4.7 Minnesota–Duluth at 4.2 Central Washington
      3.7 Henderson State at 4.3 Midwestern State
      What's the reasoning behind switching Augustana and Henderson? I think that works really well, just want more information?

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by LeftSider View Post
        What's the reasoning behind switching Augustana and Henderson? I think that works really well, just want more information?
        It reduces flights. Three flights are necessary in this bracket, and it would be four if Henderson State had to fly.

        Comment


        • #19
          Based on strength of schedule and Massey rating several regions have teams rated too high. Example on here the SR2 with a Massey rating in the sixties is the #2 seed. The playoffs are or appears to be very controversial in how a teams rated. Bowie could not beat five Gulf South teams and three SAC teams yet they are projected a #2 seed. Its not Bowie’s fault the playoffs are a flawed system in DTwo.

          Comment


          • #20
            I'm all debated out for the day lol. Ive been debating Diggs's ranking in the NFL cornerback hierarchy all day. I'm just gonna say this, BSU needs to win out and let the GSC cannibalize itself. No point in saying who could beat who, when we(BSU) doesn't have any of those teams on their remaining schedule. They did there jobs by beating the OOC teams on their schedule this year. Their only loss was by 3 to a FCS team. The 2020 season may have distorted everyone's perceptions of various teams, which is why so many teams ranked higher have loss this year. I simply hope they get the chance to dispell all of those perceptions, in the post season. The Bulldogs are now a seasoned group who have made the playoffs the last few seasons. I think that experience along with a stellar defense, will help push them further into post season, than they have made it in the past. Only time will tell.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Bearhof View Post
              Based on strength of schedule and Massey rating several regions have teams rated too high. Example on here the SR2 with a Massey rating in the sixties is the #2 seed. The playoffs are or appears to be very controversial in how a teams rated. Bowie could not beat five Gulf South teams and three SAC teams yet they are projected a #2 seed. Its not Bowie’s fault the playoffs are a flawed system in DTwo.
              The criteria often does not reflect reality.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Inkblot View Post

                I don't think that would save any potential flights.
                If Duluth and Kearney switch, it is equal in the first round but saves two potential flights in the second round. It could save the Kearney to Big Rapids flight since Duluth is 605 miles from Big Rapids or 553 if you take the ferry across lake Michigan so it depends on how the NCAA looks at that but either way is close. It would also save the potential flight from Duluth to Wichita Falls. Either way it's a flight for CWU or Duluth to Arkadelphia.

                I'm really just hoping to reunite Kearney with it's former RMAC foes.

                Comment


                • #23
                  With the current SR4 pairings I’m fairly confident the game would be in Arkadelphia. At this we’re not sure if the game would be at Henderson State or Ouachita’s stadium. They’re across the street from one another. They’re both 6-1 and don’t play until the last game of the regular season. Of course you might be going to Durant, OK to play SE OK State, if they win out. We’re in a pretty tight situation down here in the GAC.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by GoneBlastin View Post

                    If Duluth and Kearney switch, it is equal in the first round but saves two potential flights in the second round. It could save the Kearney to Big Rapids flight since Duluth is 605 miles from Big Rapids or 553 if you take the ferry across lake Michigan so it depends on how the NCAA looks at that but either way is close. It would also save the potential flight from Duluth to Wichita Falls. Either way it's a flight for CWU or Duluth to Arkadelphia.

                    I'm really just hoping to reunite Kearney with it's former RMAC foes.
                    The official NCAA mileage calculator has Duluth to Grand Valley at 645 miles.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Bearhof View Post
                      I think you have Bowie ranking to high. They barely beat a Vir. State team that LRU beat 48-07 at Va. State.
                      LRU beat one team with a winning record and lost to UVA Wise a team who only other wins come from opponents combined 0-13.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Ink, thanks for the effort on this. My question is: what places 5-1 Lindenwood ahead of a 6-1 UNK which, at least to me, plays in a tougher league.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by badboyblynn View Post
                          Ink, thanks for the effort on this. My question is: what places 5-1 Lindenwood ahead of a 6-1 UNK which, at least to me, plays in a tougher league.
                          Without a doubt a tougher league old friend ;)

                          It's all about the math. Things I believe are considered....

                          D2 record
                          Conference record
                          Regional record
                          Opponents record
                          Opponents Opponents record

                          The Opponents record for teams in the MIAA, NSIC, and GAC will always be .500 since they are silo schedules.

                          Lindenwood's games against Findlay and Angelo State (even though it was a loss) help them right now. Lions have also played Truman and Uindy, the only other teams in GLVC with winning records so that helps their equation. I suppose that even if the Lions win out, their equation might dip a bit because no one else on their schedule has a winning record.

                          But Ink, please correct me if I'm wrong :)
                          Cool Story Bro

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by badboyblynn View Post
                            Ink, thanks for the effort on this. My question is: what places 5-1 Lindenwood ahead of a 6-1 UNK which, at least to me, plays in a tougher league.
                            Originally posted by bigsig50 View Post

                            Without a doubt a tougher league old friend ;)

                            It's all about the math. Things I believe are considered....

                            D2 record
                            Conference record
                            Regional record
                            Opponents record
                            Opponents Opponents record

                            The Opponents record for teams in the MIAA, NSIC, and GAC will always be .500 since they are silo schedules.

                            Lindenwood's games against Findlay and Angelo State (even though it was a loss) help them right now. Lions have also played Truman and Uindy, the only other teams in GLVC with winning records so that helps their equation. I suppose that even if the Lions win out, their equation might dip a bit because no one else on their schedule has a winning record.

                            But Ink, please correct me if I'm wrong :)

                            Lindenwood's SOS is currently .619, compared to .541 for UNK and .561 for NWMSU. LU's will only get worse from this point, especially when they play William Jewell. UNK's will settle around .500, while NMWSU's will be above .500 since they aren't playing Lincoln. (The NSIC's SOS won't all be even, since everyone misses two teams.)

                            Conference record is not a consideration. The list of criteria is as follows:

                            ● In-region winning percentage
                            ● Division II winning percentage
                            ● Division II strength of schedule (2/3 opponents’ average winning percentage and 1/3 opponents’ opponents’ average winning percentage)
                            ● Division II head-to-head competition
                            ● Results versus Division II common opponents
                            ● Division II results vs. teams with a winning record
                            ● Performance Indicator (PI)
                            ● Results versus ranked Division II opponents

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Inkblot View Post




                              Lindenwood's SOS is currently .619, compared to .541 for UNK and .561 for NWMSU. LU's will only get worse from this point, especially when they play William Jewell. UNK's will settle around .500, while NMWSU's will be above .500 since they aren't playing Lincoln. (The NSIC's SOS won't all be even, since everyone misses two teams.)

                              Conference record is not a consideration. The list of criteria is as follows:

                              ● In-region winning percentage
                              ● Division II winning percentage
                              ● Division II strength of schedule (2/3 opponents’ average winning percentage and 1/3 opponents’ opponents’ average winning percentage)
                              ● Division II head-to-head competition
                              ● Results versus Division II common opponents
                              ● Division II results vs. teams with a winning record
                              ● Performance Indicator (PI)
                              ● Results versus ranked Division II opponents
                              Thanks for clarification. Forgot about Lincoln's cancelation.
                              As an LU fan, hope ASU, KWU, and Findlay keep winning to balance the remaining opponents combined record of 12-23.
                              Cool Story Bro

                              Comment

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