Playoff predictions….

[ESU Warrior]

What’s it looking like fam?

[Tdobson]

What’s it looking like fam?

I’m wondering that too. I want to know where IUP ends up.

[Ram040506]

1. Kutztown
2. Johnson C Smith
3. Virginia union
4. Frostburg State
5. IUP
6. California
7. Assumption or Fayetteville State.
8. Bentley

Charleston is the only other maybe really but I think they needed a Cal and assumption loss today.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Bigger question may be who is getting relocated for travel purposes.

[ctrabs74]

My predictions:

1. Kutztown (duh)
2. Johnson C Smith (beat VUU for CIAA title)
3. Virginia Union
4. IUP
5. Cal
6. Frostburg (MEC Champ)
7. Bentley (NE-10 Champ)
8. Charleston

I can't see IUP dropping off too much, much less drop below Cal (IUP has a head-to-head win). I most definitely don't see Frostburg leaping ahead of Cal (again, because of a head-to-head win). I think Assumption is in and Bentley is the AQ from the NE-10, but Bentley goes to 7 and Assumption 8 because of (say it with me now) a head-to-head win.

Slippery Rock played their way out of the playoffs by laying the mother of all eggs against Bloomsburg (which, when you think about it, wasn't overly surprising since Bloomsburg played a lot of teams tough, but they couldn't close out games). Fayetteville State didn't play this week, so that doesn't really help their playoff chances (Bentley's AQ probably is what gets Fayetteville bumped).

Charleston came very close to going 11-0 (all three of their losses to Cal, West Alabama and Frostburg were by a combined 10 points), but I think they're in the same boat as Fayetteville State. Maybe there's an outside chance Charleston jumps Assumption based on Charleston's relatively tougher schedule (though that doesn't seem to be saying much). Assumption beating a sub-.500 West Chester team who played in a very weak PSAC East (save for Kutztown, East Stroudsburg and Shepherd) isn't exactly going to help their SOS metrics.

The more I think about it, I think Charleston gets in over Assumption, if we're being honest. Losing to Bentley (even after making that brutal, arduous drive from Worcester to Waltham) and closing out the season against a weak West Chester team in the last two weeks doesn't strike me as the best look in the committee's eyes.

[ctrabs74]

Bigger question may be who is getting relocated for travel purposes.

Here's SR2's top 10 heading into today's games:

1. West Florida
2. Albany State
3. Newberry
4. Benedict
5. Wingate
6. UNC Pembroke
7. Kentucky State
8. Delta State
9. Emory & Henry
10. Carson-Newman

With Valdosta State (GSC) and North Greenville (Conference Carolinas) pulling off upsets and winning their respective conferences despite multiple losses, that likely knocks Kentucky State and Delta State out of the top eight. I wouldn't see Pembroke dropping too far (though, the "bottom four" seeds aren't seeded, so it doesn't really matter in that context). I don't see any SR1 teams being swapped out with an SR2 team.

[IUPFan69]

If IUP gets bumped to a 5 seed and a 1st-round road playoff game, that’s ridiculous. They lost by 5 points on the road at the number #3 ranked team in the country.

[ESU Warrior]

Here's SR2's top 10 heading into today's games:

1. West Florida
2. Albany State
3. Newberry
4. Benedict
5. Wingate
6. UNC Pembroke
7. Kentucky State
8. Delta State
9. Emory & Henry
10. Carson-Newman

With Valdosta State (GSC) and North Greenville (Conference Carolinas) pulling off upsets and winning their respective conferences despite multiple losses, that likely knocks Kentucky State and Delta State out of the top eight. I wouldn't see Pembroke dropping too far (though, the "bottom four" seeds aren't seeded, so it doesn't really matter in that context). I don't see any SR1 teams being swapped out with an SR2 team.

Can Cal get bumped to Ashland?

[RockPride]

Here’s my prediction:

My prediction




Bentley @ 1) Kutztown

Frostburg @ 2) J C Smith

Assumption @ 3) IUP

Cal U @ 4) VA Union

- I guess we’ll find out at 6pm Sunday.

[ctrabs74]

Can Cal get bumped to Ashland?

I think there's a chance Ashland ends up in the Top 4 in SR3, but if Ashland slips to 5? The furthest potential opponent for Cal is Bentley, which is just under the 600 mile threshold for air travel instead of bus travel. It's also possible that if Charleston gets into the region, then it's also possible that they'd be shifted to SR3. There are so many moving parts now that there's the flex option for the lower four seeds in each region that there are other possibilities to limit air travel.

[Horror Child]

My predictions:

1. Kutztown (duh)
2. Johnson C Smith (beat VUU for CIAA title)
3. Virginia Union
4. IUP
5. Cal
6. Frostburg (MEC Champ)
7. Bentley (NE-10 Champ)
8. Charleston

I can't see IUP dropping off too much, much less drop below Cal (IUP has a head-to-head win). I most definitely don't see Frostburg leaping ahead of Cal (again, because of a head-to-head win). I think Assumption is in and Bentley is the AQ from the NE-10, but Bentley goes to 7 and Assumption 8 because of (say it with me now) a head-to-head win.

Slippery Rock played their way out of the playoffs by laying the mother of all eggs against Bloomsburg (which, when you think about it, wasn't overly surprising since Bloomsburg played a lot of teams tough, but they couldn't close out games). Fayetteville State didn't play this week, so that doesn't really help their playoff chances (Bentley's AQ probably is what gets Fayetteville bumped).

Charleston came very close to going 11-0 (all three of their losses to Cal, West Alabama and Frostburg were by a combined 10 points), but I think they're in the same boat as Fayetteville State. Maybe there's an outside chance Charleston jumps Assumption based on Charleston's relatively tougher schedule (though that doesn't seem to be saying much). Assumption beating a sub-.500 West Chester team who played in a very weak PSAC East (save for Kutztown, East Stroudsburg and Shepherd) isn't exactly going to help their SOS metrics.

The more I think about it, I think Charleston gets in over Assumption, if we're being honest. Losing to Bentley (even after making that brutal, arduous drive from Worcester to Waltham) and closing out the season against a weak West Chester team in the last two weeks doesn't strike me as the best look in the committee's eyes.

The only reason you had Bentley 7 was because they beat your then 7 team Assumption, thus dropping Assumption to 8. IF Charleston gets in over Assumption, then Charleston is 7 and Bentley is 8. While your week 11 analysis is right - Assumption beat a 4-7 team while Charleston beat a 6-5 team - it may not be enough for Charleston to leap from 10 to 7 and drop Assumption from 7 to less than 8. Totally agree with your 1-6.

[NewHaven Alum]

The only reason you had Bentley 7 was because they beat your then 7 team Assumption, thus dropping Assumption to 8. IF Charleston gets in over Assumption, then Charleston is 7 and Bentley is 8. While your week 11 analysis is right - Assumption beat a 4-7 team while Charleston beat a 6-5 team - it may not be enough for Charleston to leap from 10 to 7 and drop Assumption from 7 to less than 8. Totally agree with your 1-6.

If both Assumption and Bentley get in, where would you put them at? Keep in mind that both Assumption and Bentley had two noticeable opponents this year in Franklin Pierce and West Chester with Assumption won both and Bentley lost to both.

[CHIP72]

I haven't followed things that closely in conferences besides the PSAC, but I think Assumption will stay at #7 (their regional rank after last week) and Bentley will be #8 in SR1. Bentley has more losses even if they won head-to-head, and putting Assumption at #7 avoids a regular season rematch between the Greyhounds and Kutztown.

I can't see Charleston leapfrogging a team that was 3 spots ahead of them in the regional rankings and won their game. They may also not be ranked higher than Fayetteville State (ranked 8th last week and was idle this week). Bentley winning the NE-10 essentially bumps Charleston from contention and probably knocks Fayetteville State out.

[ctrabs74]

FWIW, here's Inkblot projections for SR1:

https://inkblotsports.com/d2stats/2526/mfb/sr1.html

To elaborate further...

The top six (mainly) hold their spots based on his projections, with Johnson C Smith and Virginia Union swapping between 2 and 3 (by virtue of JCSU winning the CIAA title game and avenging their lone loss of the season to VUU).

Fayetteville State is projected as a 7 seed based on his KPI projections (the Broncos were at 8th in the final regional rankings), with Assumption at 8 (down from 7th in the RR release). Bentley, the AQ from the NE-10, is listed at 13th in KPI, would likely knock out Assumption by virtue of winning the NE-10. Fayetteville's three D2 losses this year were to SIAC runner-up Benedict (projected 6th in SR2), Conference Carolinas runner-up UNC Pembroke (projected 8th in SR2, but they could potentially get bumped by North Greenville, who beat Pembroke twice this season, including for the ConfCar title) and Johnson C Smith. That could be giving the Broncos enough of a boost in their metrics to get them into the playoffs.

I just find it interesting that Fayetteville State jumped over Assumption despite the former being idle yesterday and Assumption beating West Chester.

Charleston's KPI is 9th (10th in the last RR), with Edinboro at 10, so there's that. Slippery Rock's KPI dropped to 14th after being in the ninth-seed in the last RR release.

If the committee's selections are on par with what Inkblot's projections, then here's the projected field from SR1 (presuming no travel swaps with SR2 or SR3):

Bentley at (1) Kutztown
Fayetteville State at (2) JCSU
Frostburg State at (3) Virginia Union
Cal vs (4) IUP (which, I'd prefer not to see in the early rounds, to be honest, but the geography makes sense)

Thankfully, the fifth through eighth seeds in the playoffs aren't fixed as they were in years past, so, to avoid rematches, here's how you shuffle things around (and, as much as it pains me to admit this ... h/t to IUPNation for planting this suggestion in my head):

Bentley at (1) Kutztown
Cal at (2) JCSU
Fayetteville State at (3) Virginia Union (the two CIAA rivals didn't face each other in the regular season)
Frostburg State at (4) IUP

Now, if the committee selects Assumption over Fayetteville State, then you might have even more flexibility in setting up the SR1 bracket from a travel perspective:

Bentley at (1) Kuztown
Frostburg State at (2) JCSU
Cal at (3) Virginia Union
Assumption at (4) IUP

Virginia Union is (barely) within that 600-mile radius for ground vs air transport from Massachusetts (Assumption: approx. 520 miles from Worcester to Richmond; Bentley: approx. 550 miles from Waltham to Richmond - both trips are mainly via I-95 per Google Maps), so I don't see either of the NE-10 schools drawing Johnson C Smith in the first round.

Another scenario (however unlikely it may seem) is that IUP could move up to the three-seed and VUU down to the four-seed to avoid potential second round rematches:

Bentley at (1) Kutztown
Frostburg State at (2) JCSU
Assumption at (3) IUP
Cal at (4) Virginia Union

Presuming the committee selects Fayetteville over Assumption and IUP swaps seeds with VUU:

Bentley at (1) Kutztown
Cal at (2) JCSU
Frostburg State at (3) IUP
Fayetteville State at (4) VUU

If nothing else, I think the top six is set, but those last two spots (which is really just one thanks to Bentley) will make for some interesting debate.

[RocknTheSnackBar]

If both Assumption and Bentley get in, where would you put them at? Keep in mind that both Assumption and Bentley had two noticeable opponents this year in Franklin Pierce and West Chester with Assumption won both and Bentley lost to both.

That's a pretty broad assumption