SR4 Week 10 Bracketology

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Using the current NPI provided on Inkblots site at 2026–27 Football: Super Region 4 and then using my personal projections for the end of the year for week 10.

Week 10 per Current NPI:

Central Missouri (6-3) @ 1) Harding (9-0)
Western Colorado (9-0) @ 4) Emporia State (8-1)
Southeastern Oklahoma State (7-2) @ 3) Northwest Missouri State (7-1)
Central Washington (7-1) @ 2) Colorado State - Pueblo (9-0)

Week 10 Personal end of year projections:

Midwestern State (9-2) @ 1) Colorado State Pueblo (11-0)
Central Washington (9-1) @ 4) Northwest Missouri State (9-1)
Western Colorado (10-1) @ 3) Emporia State (10-1)
Central Missouri (8-3) @ 2) Harding (11-0)

Games to Watch this week:

Washburn (6-2-1) @ Emporia State (8-1)
UTPB (6-2) @ Midwestern State (7-2)
Henderson State (7-2) @ East Central (6-3)
Colorado Mines (6-2-1) @ Western Colorado (9-0)
Colorado State Pueblo (9-0) @ South Dakota Mines (4-4)
Central Missouri (6-3) @ Pitt State (3-6)

[lleachieshusband]

So, looking at the remaining conference schedule, if, if, NW and ESU win out (although Washburn might have a few words about that), and the conference championship is split, how does the committee award the automatic bid? I mean, under the current NPI, both teams make the playoffs, but does that play into seeding?

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

So, looking at the remaining conference schedule, if, if, NW and ESU win out (although Washburn might have a few words about that), and the conference championship is split, how does the committee award the automatic bid? I mean, under the current NPI, both teams make the playoffs, but does that play into seeding?

My understanding is the conference determines the automatic bid and NPI 100% determines the seeding. In this case NW gets the automatic bid due to head to head tiebreaker with Emporia if both teams win out. Head to head plays no role in overall seeding or who gets the last playoff spot.

[NWFanatic]

Assuming both ESU & NWMSU win out ESU the NPI should favor ESU as they have 6-2-1 WU & 3-6 FHSU left while NWMSU has 3-6 MWSU & 3-6 PSU left. That would likely make ESU the auto bid & NWMSU an at large bid(but hopefully still having a chance at a 1st round game). If I understand it an auto bid as Conference Champs doesn’t guarantee hosting a 1st round game

[CatFan88]

My 2 cents...If the NCAA wants to make this fair as possible, then H2H always has to be part of the equation, no matter what other "math" criteria they use. However, if ESU ends up with the higher seed in the PO strictly based on NPI, so be it. That's the game now and the criteria we all live by. NW and their AD need to adjust to the PO game.

[NWFanatic]

A year ago who’d have thought PSU would be dragging down teams’ NPI.
TAMUK has a good chance of finishing 5-6 which would make them .500(excluding their loss to NWMSU)-will they help NWMSU’s NPI any?

Question on hosting. NCAA used to require 500 seats for visitors between the 40’s…if still true how will ESU handle that if they host?

[debergfan]

Inkblot who would have gotten into the playoffs last year in region 4 if NPI was used?

[CatFan88]

A year ago who’d have thought PSU would be dragging down teams’ NPI.
TAMUK has a good chance of finishing 5-6 which would make them .500(excluding their loss to NWMSU)-will they help NWMSU’s NPI any?

Question on hosting. NCAA used to require 500 seats for visitors between the 40’s…if still true how will ESU handle that if they host?

My understanding of NPI is that H2H is eliminated.

[lleachieshusband]

Assuming both ESU & NWMSU win out ESU the NPI should favor ESU as they have 6-2-1 WU & 3-6 FHSU left while NWMSU has 3-6 MWSU & 3-6 PSU left. That would likely make ESU the auto bid & NWMSU an at large bid(but hopefully still having a chance at a 1st round game). If I understand it an auto bid as Conference Champs doesn’t guarantee hosting a 1st round game

So if you’re NW you’re hoping Washburn plays spoiler?

[lleachieshusband]

My understanding of NPI is that H2H is eliminated.

As a factor for seeding, for deciding splits, or both?

[CatFan88]

As a factor for seeding, for deciding splits, or both?

There is no weight (%) for H2H in any part of the NPI calculation for seeding or deciding splits.

[CatFan88]

Using AI...if NW wins next week on road, their projected NPI would be in the range of 62.5 and 64.2 depending on opponents outcomes next week. If ESU wins at home, their projected NPI would be in the range of 61.5 and 63.5 depending on opponents outcomes next week.

[CatFan88]

Inkblot who would have gotten into the playoffs last year in region 4 if NPI was used?

Using AI and current NPI...
Northwest Missouri @ 1 Harding
W. Oregon @ 2 Central Washington
W. Colorado @ 3 Colorado State-Pueblo
Chadron St. @ 4 Pittsburg St.

[reloadmvp]

So if you're NW you're hoping Washburn plays spoiler?

They better be, because that's about the only way the numbers break their way. They earned the jump Saturday. Inkblot has NW 3rd at 63.33 and us 4th at 62.88. But we get Washburn (56.91) at home and Fort Hays (48.78) on
the road. They get Mo West (46.31) and Pitt (47.87). Washburn's the only top 10 team left on either schedule, so beat them and NPI sorts the rest out, AQ or not.

Nobody's playing spoiler in Welch Saturday.

[Jon Dykstra]

I'll have my bracketology on the show Monday, but I am very aligned with everything Buff is saying.