Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

[Casual_Observer]

This Week - Reformulated to match results from last week (All 3 polls agreed this week)
1.) MN State
2.) Tarleton State
3.) Duluth
4.) Mines
5.) Pueblo
6.) Midwestern
7.) Commerce - Will be 6 by final week (Committee may bump them there this week)
8.) Central Washington
9.) Azusa Pacific
10.) Chadron State

Final Week Projections
1.) MN State (11-0)
2.) Colorado Mines (11-0)
3.) Tarleton State (10-0)
4.) MN Duluth (11-0)
5.) CSU - Pueblo (10-1)
6.) TX A&M Commerce (9-2)
7.) Midwestern State (8-2)
8.) Central Washington (9-1)
9.) Azusa Pacific (7-3)
10.) Winona State (8-3)

[Boohaha]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

This Week - Reformulated to match results from last week (All 3 polls agreed this week)
1.) MN State
2.) Tarleton State
3.) Duluth
4.) Mines
5.) Pueblo
6.) Midwestern
7.) Commerce - Will be 6 by final week (Committee may bump them there this week)
8.) Central Washington
9.) Azusa Pacific
10.) Chadron State

Final Week Projections
1.) MN State (11-0)
2.) Colorado Mines (11-0)
3.) Tarleton State (10-0)
4.) MN Duluth (11-0)
5.) CSU - Pueblo (10-1)
6.) TX A&M Commerce (9-2)
7.) Midwestern State (8-2)
8.) Central Washington (9-1)
9.) Azusa Pacific (7-3)
10.) Winona State (8-3)

CWU schedule is killing them.

I think the committee showed their hand when they came out with the first rankings and had CWU ranked below the 2 loss teams at 8.

[Twincitiesmav]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

CWU schedule is killing them.

I think the committee showed their hand when they came out with the first rankings and had CWU ranked below the 2 loss teams at 8.

[Turbonium]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

They still play 7-3 Azusa so that will help. Pueblo has 2-7 Black Hills and 2-7 Western State left but I don't think they drop down any, even if they do they'll jump back up due to head to head over Commerce. Mines has 5-4 Dixie and 6-2 Chadron State left so nothing that should hurt them much.

[Boohaha]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

They still play 7-3 Azusa so that will help. Pueblo has 2-7 Black Hills and 2-7 Western State left but I don't think they drop down any, even if they do they'll jump back up due to head to head over Commerce. Mines has 5-4 Dixie and 6-2 Chadron State left so nothing that should hurt them much.

So long as they win out the only team on the bubble is Midwestern and CWU.

The committee will have to decide how much emphasis they put on strength of schedule vs inclusion of all conferences in region.

[Casual_Observer]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

So long as they win out the only team on the bubble is Midwestern and CWU.

The committee will have to decide how much emphasis they put on strength of schedule vs inclusion of all conferences in region.

Don't forget about H2H. If MSU beats WT then it will be hard to put CWU in with such a weak SOS and a loss to a common opponent.

[Turbonium]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

So long as they win out the only team on the bubble is Midwestern and CWU.

The committee will have to decide how much emphasis they put on strength of schedule vs inclusion of all conferences in region.

Looks like, barring any big upsets, the region is set beyond that last spot between CWU & Midwestern yeah.

Were I to guess I believe it will be:
1. Mankato
2. CO Mines - Decent SOS last 2 weeks
3. Tarleton - WNM hurts, as does 1 less D2 game than Mines.
4. Duluth - Terrible SOS final 2 games but.
5. Pueblo - Terrible SOS their final 2 games
6. Commerce - Maybe 5 if not for head to head loss to Pueblo.
7. Central Washington - Numbers should be fairly close, toss up really. (I would like to see Midwestern @ Mines here though)

[Casual_Observer]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

Looks like, barring any big upsets, the region is set beyond that last spot between CWU & Midwestern yeah.

Were I to guess I believe it will be:
1. Mankato
2. CO Mines - Decent SOS last 2 weeks
3. Tarleton - WNM hurts, as does 1 less D2 game than Mines.
4. Duluth - Terrible SOS final 2 games but.
5. Pueblo - Terrible SOS their final 2 games
6. Commerce - Maybe 5 if not for head to head loss to Pueblo.
7. Central Washington - Numbers should be fairly close, toss up really. (I would like to see Midwestern @ Mines here though)

Just for a little view into why MSU is 7:

6.) TX A&M Commerce - .6775 - SOS: .515 - 0-1 In Region Non Conf - 3 Wins over .500 (3-2) - Loss to Pueblo and Tarleton
7.) Midwestern State - .6772 - SOS: .519 - 1-0 In Region Non Conf - 3 Wins over .500 (3-2) - Loss to Commerce and Tarleton
8.) Central Washington - .6537 - SOS: .410 - 0-1 In Region Non Conf - 2 wins over .500 (2-1) - Loss to West Texas A&m

[Turbonium]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

Just for a little view into why MSU is 7:

6.) TX A&M Commerce - .6775 - SOS: .515 - 0-1 In Region Non Conf - 3 Wins over .500 (3-2) - Loss to Pueblo and Tarleton
7.) Midwestern State - .6772 - SOS: .519 - 1-0 In Region Non Conf - 3 Wins over .500 (3-2) - Loss to Commerce and Tarleton
8.) Central Washington - .6537 - SOS: .410 - 0-1 In Region Non Conf - 2 wins over .500 (2-1) - Loss to West Texas A&m

I think MSU is the better team, I'm throwing a bit of that human element in to get the GNAC in over 3 LSC teams. I also think MSU better work on their special teams quite a bit this spring.

[Casual_Observer]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

I think MSU is the better team, I'm throwing a bit of that human element in to get the GNAC in over 3 LSC teams. I also think MSU better work on their special teams quite a bit this spring.

You mean put a kicker and long snapper on scholly.

[Boohaha]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

I'm throwing a bit of that human element in to get the GNAC in over 3 LSC teams.

That is the only way CWU gets in. Their SOS is not good and they will only have 2 wins over +.500 team.

As we saw last year the quality of the opponents a team loses to only affects SOS it us not a seperate criteria.(not taking shots here just pointing out what we saw last year.)

[Boohaha]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

You mean put a kicker and long snapper on scholly.

At least a kicker!

[TexanFan]

[Casual_Observer]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

The only way this happens is if Tarleton is the 4 seed. I do not see any other way around this. I think that it will be:

MN State vs Bye
CSU - Pueblo @ MN Duluth
TX A&M Commerce @ Tarleton State
Midwestern State @ Colorado Mines

Would love to see Midwestern State @ Tarleton State again (Such a Great Game) or Midwestern State @ Commerce with normal playing conditions.

[We-Are-Lions]

Re: Casual Observer's Regional Rankings by the Numbers - 10/29/2018

The only way this happens is if Tarleton is the 4 seed. I do not see any other way around this. I think that it will be:

MN State vs Bye
CSU - Pueblo @ MN Duluth
TX A&M Commerce @ Tarleton State
Midwestern State @ Colorado Mines

Would love to see Midwestern State @ Tarleton State again (Such a Great Game) or Midwestern State @ Commerce with normal playing conditions.

I think most of us agree Midwestern should be above CWU, but hope to play the Wildcats...