Regional Rankings Discussion (10/31)

[ASUfam&fan]

Minnesota State is finally getting healthy and playing the best they have all season. Still not great, but they are looking very strong again. Not saying this as a homer, I’m as tough on the team as anyone (outside of WT fans). They surprised me coming away with convincing victories in the the back-to-back trips to Sioux Falls (Augustana and Sioux Falls). Sometimes it’s about peaking at the right time and they seem to be doing that.

Regarding the bolded statement: I wholeheartedly disagree. It is slightly easier to make an assessment because there is some data, but teams have changed quite a bit since then. Not all the teams play each other and the transitive theory doesn’t work. I don’t care for silo schedules either, but in the financial reality of D2, it’s not likely to go away.

I agree Minn. St. does look good, I watched the duluth, augie and sf games. But I totally disagree with your statement. you said the financial reality of D2. I am not gonna except the finance issue reason ( your statement is what probably a lines with the AD's of the nsic ) because the top schools in your conference in the recent history.....Minn, St ( NC game appreances ), Duluth ( NC game championships), SF ( NAIA championships ), Augustana ( playoff success, major investment in resources and rumors of trying to go D1).....so the money is there for travel . at the most play 2 occ games and you will have at most 2 occ road games, 1 away occ game, or if you are lucky 2 home occ games.

2nd please correct me if this info is incorrect. But nsic silo schedule is different from others because you have split division but no championship game. if you are goin to do silo then play 10 games and have a conference championship. You dont play all the teams in the conference every yr. It is a great hussle the conference has going on. you are pretty much guarantee some type of rematch in the 1 round guaranteeing a nsic 2nd round playoff banner, as I heard is what the ncaa is now trying to avoid conference rematches in the opening rounds.

Angelo state ooc games the last 3 yrs ,

19. western ore, simon fraser, at adams st
21. at lindenwood, at Chadron st.
22. chadron st, at colorado school of mines ( mines comes to asu next yr )

central washington opened at ferris this yr. kingsville opened at saginaw valley last yr. and west tam played mines last yr and has a home and home with gvsu coming up.

Annndd you silo conference pretty much guarantee strength of schedule at .500 or above and that is one of the most important factors in playoff selections. Say A 10-1 angelo state ( say a loss to kingsville in conference ) or 10-1 colorado school of mines ( say the beat gvsu and lost to asu ) but the rmac records were mostly bad, asu and csm would have had to mostly on the road to play a undefeated sf or augustana. I wouldnt have an issue with that if say augie or sf played at 2 occ games to gage who they stack up. ive said this before this silo set up makes for lazy AD and commissioners

[Purple Mav Man]

I agree Minn. St. does look good, I watched the duluth, augie and sf games. But I totally disagree with your statement. you said the financial reality of D2. I am not gonna except the finance issue reason ( your statement is what probably a lines with the AD's of the nsic ) because the top schools in your conference in the recent history.....Minn, St ( NC game appreances ), Duluth ( NC game championships), SF ( NAIA championships ), Augustana ( playoff success, major investment in resources and rumors of trying to go D1).....so the money is there for travel . at the most play 2 occ games and you will have at most 2 occ road games, 1 away occ game, or if you are lucky 2 home occ games.

2nd please correct me if this info is incorrect. But nsic silo schedule is different from others because you have split division but no championship game. if you are goin to do silo then play 10 games and have a conference championship. You dont play all the teams in the conference every yr. It is a great hussle the conference has going on. you are pretty much guarantee some type of rematch in the 1 round guaranteeing a nsic 2nd round playoff banner, as I heard is what the ncaa is now trying to avoid conference rematches in the opening rounds.

Angelo state ooc games the last 3 yrs ,

19. western ore, simon fraser, at adams st
21. at lindenwood, at Chadron st.
22. chadron st, at colorado school of mines ( mines comes to asu next yr )

central washington opened at ferris this yr. kingsville opened at saginaw valley last yr. and west tam played mines last yr and has a home and home with gvsu coming up.

Annndd you silo conference pretty much guarantee strength of schedule at .500 or above and that is one of the most important factors in playoff selections. Say A 10-1 angelo state ( say a loss to kingsville in conference ) or 10-1 colorado school of mines ( say the beat gvsu and lost to asu ) but the rmac records were mostly bad, asu and csm would have had to mostly on the road to play a undefeated sf or augustana. I wouldnt have an issue with that if say augie or sf played at 2 occ games to gage who they stack up. ive said this before this silo set up makes for lazy AD and commissioners

I don’t care for the silo scheduling either, but you can disagree all you want, it is a financial reality. They do not need to travel for games when they have so many teams in the conference. Again, I don't care for it but I can understand it. Also, financial reality is completely different from just not having the money… the reality is they do not have to spend money to travel unnecessarily. I don’t see that as lazy, I see that as sustainable. Until the NCAA changes the criteria and punishes silo scheduling, why would they throw away money to travel? To appease fans from other conferences who whine about not being able to measure up their teams? :)

Also, this doesn’t help you point of being able to compare teams:
Angelo state ooc games the last 3 yrs ,

19. western ore, simon fraser, at adams st
21. at lindenwood, at Chadron st.
22. chadron st, at colorado school of mines ( mines comes to asu next yr )

In those three seasons, they had 7 OOC opponents. Only one was a real game. The others do not prove anything how the conferences stack up. Those just prove a top LSC team can beat up bottom feeders from the other conferences (outside of Mines of course).

Correct, the silo is unbalanced as there are 14 total teams and you play 11 (2 teams being omitted). So it won’t always default to a .500 SOS. I’m curious as to your math behind your statement: “Annndd you silo conference pretty much guarantee strength of schedule at .500 or above” How can everyone have a SOS at or above .500?

The championship game idea has been floated. I don’t see a benefit. Why would the conference want to put two playoff contenders against each other the last week and likely/possibly eliminate one? Also, most years, a North/South matchup wouldn’t really indicate the true conference championship game. Also, it’s an open week for all teams then that you must fill. Not impossible, but at this level, quite unnecessary.

[IronOre]

I’d ask you to keep ‘em above the belt but even the Hardrockers on the RMAC board have expressed similar sentiments. It is even worth mentioning that SD mines still only has 3 losses too but because their last game is against Chadron (down recently) they don’t have the upside of CSUP. While not wholly in the playoff conversation they aren’t wholly out of it either.

They were pretty hapless back in their GNAC days. Good to see them progressing. Hopefully SFU can do the same one of these years.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

I don’t care for the silo scheduling either, but you can disagree all you want, it is a financial reality. They do not need to travel for games when they have so many teams in the conference. Again, I don't care for it but I can understand it. Also, financial reality is completely different from just not having the money… the reality is they do not have to spend money to travel unnecessarily. I don’t see that as lazy, I see that as sustainable. Until the NCAA changes the criteria and punishes silo scheduling, why would they throw away money to travel? To appease fans from other conferences who whine about not being able to measure up their teams? :)

Also, this doesn’t help you point of being able to compare teams:
Angelo state ooc games the last 3 yrs ,

19. western ore, simon fraser, at adams st
21. at lindenwood, at Chadron st.
22. chadron st, at colorado school of mines ( mines comes to asu next yr )

In those three seasons, they had 7 OOC opponents. Only one was a real game. The others do not prove anything how the conferences stack up. Those just prove a top LSC team can beat up bottom feeders from the other conferences (outside of Mines of course).

Correct, the silo is unbalanced as there are 14 total teams and you play 11 (2 teams being omitted). So it won’t always default to a .500 SOS. I’m curious as to your math behind your statement: “Annndd you silo conference pretty much guarantee strength of schedule at .500 or above” How can everyone have a SOS at or above .500?

The championship game idea has been floated. I don’t see a benefit. Why would the conference want to put two playoff contenders against each other the last week and likely/possibly eliminate one? Also, most years, a North/South matchup wouldn’t really indicate the true conference championship game. Also, it’s an open week for all teams then that you must fill. Not impossible, but at this level, quite unnecessary.

Yeah which is why you see Wayne State hanging on for dear life with 2 losses because they played all 5 of the bottom turds of the conference and Augustana still in there with 3 losses and they avoided playing 2 of the turds.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Just looking at this from an NCAA perspective.

Its way less of a headache for Kingsville to win out.

They can insert Kingsville anywhere from 5 to 7 to employ NSIC head-to-head tiebreakers above and below Kingsville.

Kingsville loses then it will be a nightmare trying to sort out the seeds of the 5 NSIC teams that don't have clear head-to-head advantages.

[d2 football fan]

This comment 100%.

The D2 veterans on this board (not just the LSC board) saw this coming a mile away and knew Kingsville was going to have trouble once they got to the Angelo State part of the schedule and beyond.

I honestly think the administration in Kingsville thought that they weren't going to be playoff contenders this year and wanted to schedule easier teams to get them off to a good start.

They succeeded at that with a 7-0 start that no one really saw coming until they beat WT on the road.

They were also able to save on any travel expenses playing at home and both North American and Sul Ross being based in Texas.

They can definitely remedy that next year playing an RMAC team or even a GLIAC or GSC team if each team is willing to travel for that home and home.

Good news is Kingsville can still win out and make the playoffs since the NSIC teams above them in the regional rankings play each other enough in elimination games while Midwestern State and Western Oregon (they should both finish above .500) won't hurt their SOS the last two games.
Midwestern is currently 5-4. Kingsville has to beat them that makes them 5-5. Next week they play Angelo and presumably lose that, making them 5-6. Midwestern will weaken Kingsville's SOS. WOR is 4-5. Kingsville needs to beat them, that makes them 4-6 and guarantees a losing record - again hurting Kingsville's SOS. They need to win out, but winning both games actually hurts them. They simply need a lot of help.

If that does play out its a genius move (by accident) by Kingsville and can sell the 7-0 start and playoff appearance (possible wins in postseason) to incoming recruits.

I will be a fan of both Angelo and Kingsville to win out and represent the LSC in the playoffs.

.

[d2 football fan]

Remaining Schedule w/(Massey Prediction)

1. Angelo - Central Washington, MSU-Texas - 2 wins - 11-0 final record
2. Colorado Mines - NMHU, Fort Lewis - 2 wins - 9-2 final record (SOS hit)
3. Winona State - Upper Iowa, Minnesota State - 1 win, 1 loss (likely out of playoffs) - 8-3 final record
4. Minnesota State - SW Minnesota, Winona - 2 wins - 9-2 final record
5. Sioux Falls - Wayne State, Upper Iowa - 2 wins - 9-2 final record
6. Wayne State - Sioux Falls, MSU-Moorhead - 1 win, 1 loss - 8-3 final record
7. Bemidji - Northern State, Mary - 2 wins - 9-2 final record
8. Javelinas - MSU-Texas, Western Oregon - 2 wins - 7-2 final record
9. Augustana - Minn-Duluth, SW Minn - 2 wins - 8-3 final record
10. Central Washington - Angelo, UTPB - 1 win, 1 loss - 6-4 final record

If Winona beats Minnesota State, they will likely retain 3rd seed and Minnesota State would drop out of playoffs.
If Wayne State beats Sioux Falls, they will likely retain 6th seed and Sioux Falls would drop out of playoffs.

If Mankato wins out, there is a chance they will actually jump Mines for #2. Mankato has had to play all of the top teams in the NSIC and will have gone 5-2 against them. They play Winona in week 11, which bumps their SOS. Mines plays two bad teams and gets knocked on SOS. I haven't looked at the numbers, but Mankato will have a better SOS because Mines' will be .500 in conference and Mankato's will be higher.

Augustana has also played all of the top teams in the NSIC, giving them a high SOS. So, if they win out, I would not at all be shocked to see them still playing into the playoffs.

As you have shown here, I don't think Kingsville breaks through, even with winning their last two games, because both opponents will end up with losing records and have a negative impact on their SOS relative to where it is now. And the two non-D2 games will hurt their winning percentage as well.

[JavsFan]

If Mankato wins out, there is a chance they will actually jump Mines for #2. Mankato has had to play all of the top teams in the NSIC and will have gone 5-2 against them. They play Winona in week 11, which bumps their SOS. Mines plays two bad teams and gets knocked on SOS. I haven't looked at the numbers, but Mankato will have a better SOS because Mines' will be .500 in conference and Mankato's will be higher.

Augustana has also played all of the top teams in the NSIC, giving them a high SOS. So, if they win out, I would not at all be shocked to see them still playing into the playoffs.

As you have shown here, I don't think Kingsville breaks through, even with winning their last two games, because both opponents will end up with losing records and have a negative impact on their SOS relative to where it is now. And the two non-D2 games will hurt their winning percentage as well.

I use a simple model, but it usually works out pretty close.
I have the top 4 teams the same as the Regional committee.
Teams 5-9 are the same, but not in the same order.
My 10-14 teams are very closely rated,

I think the following are elimination games this week.
Augustana - Minnesota Duluth
Javelinas - Midwestern State
Bemidji - Northern State
Sioux Falls - Wayne State - Winner likely in, loser out

Next week the likely elimination games are
Javelinas - Western Oregon (unless we lose this weekend)
Winona - Mankato - though Mankato could get in with 3 losses

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

My arguments for Mankato not being a #2 is:

1) Mines will be the undefeated, undisputed champion of the RMAC.
2) Mines only losses were by a field goal to the #1 and #2 teams in the nation (Grand Valley and Angelo State).
3) One of Mankato's two losses were to a probable 4 or 5 loss team in Northern State.
4) Mankato will unlikely be an undisputed NSIC champion.

Would I rant on here if Mankato makes it up to #2? No.

I feel that Mines challenged themselves non conference that no other team has come close to doing.

The RMAC is improved with Black Hills, S.D. Mines, and Western Colorado playing above .500 ball along with Pueblo.

[GoneBlastin]

Yeah Kingsville isn't jumping over any of the final 2 loss NSIC teams.

The difference in overall record percentage to calculate SOS between 9-2 (.818) and 7-2 (.778) is 0.04.

Luckily for Kingsville there are a couple of NSIC games where the 2 loss NSIC teams go head-to-head and eliminate each other.

Good points. Realistically, too, whether 5 or 7 doesn't mean much. anything below 4 is just "unseeded". The 1st round opponent is decided based on travel anyway. The only conversations that really matter are 1 vs. 2 for the bye, 4 vs. 5 for the home game and 7 vs. 8 for the entry into the playoff. Discussing 7 vs. 5 is just something to do to kill the time....... Guilty.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

I use a simple model, but it usually works out pretty close.
I have the top 4 teams the same as the Regional committee.
Teams 5-9 are the same, but not in the same order.
My 10-14 teams are very closely rated,

I think the following are elimination games this week.
Augustana - Minnesota Duluth
Javelinas - Midwestern State
Bemidji - Northern State
Sioux Falls - Wayne State - Winner likely in, loser out

Next week the likely elimination games are
Javelinas - Western Oregon (unless we lose this weekend)
Winona - Mankato - though Mankato could get in with 3 losses

I think Western Oregon is already toast.

They are in the same boat as Kingsville with only 9 D2 games and 4 losses.

They won't have the SOS bump to get there still having to play Simon Fraser.

Kingsville needs to be huge Angelo State fans this weekend.

Central Washington wins out and they are knocking Kingsville out of the playoffs.

[Goods]

Central Washington wins out and they are knocking Kingsville out of the playoffs.

They will. You heard it hear first. I'm blinded by my CWU Crimson and Black glasses I wear, but I don't care. Upset of the year if CWU beats Angelo in Angelo, but stranger things have happened.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

They will. You heard it hear first. I'm blinded by my CWU Crimson and Black glasses I wear, but I don't care. Upset of the year if CWU beats Angelo in Angelo, but stranger things have happened.

Oh yeah and I would be optimistic in your shoes.

I think Ashland was undefeated and #1 in their region last week and got upset so it definitely can happen.

I would like Central Washington's chances much better if the game was at home.

[ASUfam&fan]

I don’t care for the silo scheduling either, but you can disagree all you want, it is a financial reality. They do not need to travel for games when they have so many teams in the conference. Again, I don't care for it but I can understand it. Also, financial reality is completely different from just not having the money… the reality is they do not have to spend money to travel unnecessarily. I don’t see that as lazy, I see that as sustainable. Until the NCAA changes the criteria and punishes silo scheduling, why would they throw away money to travel? To appease fans from other conferences who whine about not being able to measure up their teams? :)

Also, this doesn’t help you point of being able to compare teams:
Angelo state ooc games the last 3 yrs ,

19. western ore, simon fraser, at adams st
21. at lindenwood, at Chadron st.
22. chadron st, at colorado school of mines ( mines comes to asu next yr )

In those three seasons, they had 7 OOC opponents. Only one was a real game. The others do not prove anything how the conferences stack up. Those just prove a top LSC team can beat up bottom feeders from the other conferences (outside of Mines of course).

Correct, the silo is unbalanced as there are 14 total teams and you play 11 (2 teams being omitted). So it won’t always default to a .500 SOS. I’m curious as to your math behind your statement: “Annndd you silo conference pretty much guarantee strength of schedule at .500 or above” How can everyone have a SOS at or above .500?

The championship game idea has been floated. I don’t see a benefit. Why would the conference want to put two playoff contenders against each other the last week and likely/possibly eliminate one? Also, most years, a North/South matchup wouldn’t really indicate the true conference championship game. Also, it’s an open week for all teams then that you must fill. Not impossible, but at this level, quite unnecessary.

and I think most people fans of schools with silo pre dont like them either. But highlighted my point when you said about the administration not being lazy because of silo scheds. You said they do not have to spend money to travel unnecessarily and that is staying sustainable. The silo conferences are hustling the current system. If I do not have to sit down and call schools or field calls from other schools to set up games, I have the same travel cost I know it is to each school in my conference cause it never changes and as you corrected me as I ask you to do if I was incorrect on something ( since nsic is 11 out of 14 then yes you have a chance of sos’s not all being around .500 SOS. ) but I can get at least 3 teams in every yr possibly 5 this yr. That is extra revenue I can create for my conference due to the # of teams I get in the playoffs, remember the ncaa pays for the travel in the playoffs, and I dont have to abide by all of the criteria for playoff teams, ( Silo conferences looked at different w/

1. in region win percentage ( same region games are guaranteed for Silo )
2. you will never have to worry about win percentage against d2 opponents ( never have to worry about trying to schedule ooc games )
3 Head to Head competition ( If it was down to the last playoff spot,,,,,say angelo and mines finishes season at 9-2, sos is about the same. but angelo beat mines there for angelo would likely get the nod.)
4 Results against common opponents ( Angelo and Mines happen to have a common opponent in West texas am last yr. ASu lost and CSM won. Silo Conference common opponents never change.)

The ooc games I listed the last 3 yrs

19. WOU winning record.

21. Lindenwood only d2 lost was to angelo st. until the playoffs / at Chadron was a comeback of 24 and won. chandron finished 6-5

22. this yr. at Mines won.. and this yr the lonestar conference won most of there games against the rmac, so you compare the lsc and rmac this yr definitely but can do that with nsic. Thats like being invited to a spread at work and asking people to bring a dish (whether it is possibly nasty but i still bring one) but one co worker doesnt but expects to eat with everyone else.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

and I think most people fans of schools with silo pre dont like them either. But highlighted my point when you said about the administration not being lazy because of silo scheds. You said they do not have to spend money to travel unnecessarily and that is staying sustainable. The silo conferences are hustling the current system. If I do not have to sit down and call schools or field calls from other schools to set up games, I have the same travel cost I know it is to each school in my conference cause it never changes and as you corrected me as I ask you to do if I was incorrect on something ( since nsic is 11 out of 14 then yes you have a chance of sos’s not all being around .500 SOS. ) but I can get at least 3 teams in every yr possibly 5 this yr. That is extra revenue I can create for my conference due to the # of teams I get in the playoffs, remember the ncaa pays for the travel in the playoffs, and I dont have to abide by all of the criteria for playoff teams, ( Silo conferences looked at different w/

1. in region win percentage ( same region games are guaranteed for Silo )
2. you will never have to worry about win percentage against d2 opponents ( never have to worry about trying to schedule ooc games )
3 Head to Head competition ( If it was down to the last playoff spot,,,,,say angelo and mines finishes season at 9-2, sos is about the same. but angelo beat mines there for angelo would likely get the nod.)
4 Results against common opponents ( Angelo and Mines happen to have a common opponent in West texas am last yr. ASu lost and CSM won. Silo Conference common opponents never change.)

The ooc games I listed the last 3 yrs

19. WOU winning record.

21. Lindenwood only d2 lost was to angelo st. until the playoffs / at Chadron was a comeback of 24 and won. chandron finished 6-5

22. this yr. at Mines won.. and this yr the lonestar conference won most of there games against the rmac, so you compare the lsc and rmac this yr definitely but can do that with nsic. Thats like being invited to a spread at work and asking people to bring a dish (whether it is possibly nasty but i still bring one) but one co worker doesnt but expects to eat with everyone else.

I agree but we are at a point where teams other than Angelo State and Mines haven't taken care of business so now they are at the mercy of the numbers.

If the favored teams would have started taking care of business a few weeks ago the region could have looked like this with no arguments.

1) Angelo State (11-0)
2) Sioux Falls (11-0)
3) Colorado Mines (9-2)
4) Augustana (10-1)
5) Kingsville (8-1)
6) Bemidji State (9-2)
7) West Texas A&M (9-2)

Now Minnesota State and Winona State are making a charge and everyone else will be sweating out the selection shows.