Week 8 Chat

[laker]

I would assume Minot is leaving right now in order to get to Fayette in time for Saturdays game :) 690 miles and 11+ hours on a bus…sounds fun

They could take AMTRAK for a lot of the trip. I looked into that once for going to Minot- getting on at St Cloud. But they are always several hours behind so I didn't try it.

[SW_Mustang]

They could take AMTRAK for a lot of the trip. I looked into that once for going to Minot- getting on at St Cloud. But they are always several hours behind so I didn't try it.

I did that trip once - though I kept going all the way to Central Washington. If one has the time and needs to get to Minot, that's the way to do it.

[WhyNotMinot]

They could take AMTRAK for a lot of the trip. I looked into that once for going to Minot- getting on at St Cloud. But they are always several hours behind so I didn't try it.

Based on insider knowledge, they are leaving mid day today (Thursday) to break the trip up. And yes, they need a trophy for that game!

[Otis Day]

You never know what’s going to happen when the Beavers and Cocks…come together. Should be a good old fashioned smash fest. I just hope it doesn’t get sloppy.

There, I’m good now.

And yes, some type of trophy. But what?….

Road map, compass, neck pillow, but a big ass bus tire sponsored by the two bus companies would be pretty cool...

As for the 'animal' related ideas, maybe best left to discuss in person at the USF-Kato tailgate next week Mav Man ;)

[NSU4LIFE]

They could take AMTRAK for a lot of the trip. I looked into that once for going to Minot- getting on at St Cloud. But they are always several hours behind so I didn't try it.

Is Amtrak still around?

[Inkblot]

I was kind of surprised to see Inkbot's regional rankings this week have 7 of the 10 teams from the NSIC. Things will definitely sort themselves out a little in the last 4 weeks with some big games. The NSIC does seemed destined to have 3 teams in the playoffs. I would be shocked to see 4 get in. The top 2 teams (maybe top 3) are from the LSC (Angelo, maybe TAMU-Kingsville) and RMAC (Colorado Mines) but the NSIC has a strong group behind them.

To be honest, that surprised me a bit... but really, other than those three teams you mentioned, it's hard to see anyone else that belongs.

A couple factors play to the NSIC's favor this year: first, the RMAC went 4-10 in non-conference games with none of the wins coming against teams over .500 (Midwestern State, Missouri S&T, and two over William Jewell). Meanwhile the LSC went 8-3... but seven of those wins were against the RMAC. Meaning that if you exclude those conferences' results against each other, they've gone 4-5 against everyone else with wins against Michigan Tech, Missouri S&T, and William Jewell twice and losses to Ferris State, Grand Valley State twice, Truman, and Southwest Baptist. And for the most part, the teams with the best wins or most forgivable non-conference losses all have questionable losses in-conference – the exceptions being Angelo, TAMUK, and Colorado Mines. The only other LSC/RMAC teams that don't have three losses are Central Washington (almost certainly would get in if they win out, but have yet to beat a team that's over .500) and Black Hills State (bad SOS which won't change much might keep them below 8-3 NSIC teams even if they win out).

Obviously the NSIC strength of schedule will average out to .500, but since everyone has two schools they don't play, most schools won't have SOS of exactly .500. It's easy to say that the South teams will have higher SOS because the South is 23-8 against the North with four cross-division games left, but it's a bit more complicated. Augustana will have a strong SOS because the two teams they don't play are Mary and Minot State, but Sioux Falls will have a sub-.500 SOS because they miss Bemidji State and Northern State. When we consider that Southwest Minnesota State's current 4-3 record is built off wins over the four worst teams in the conference and they're likely to finish 4-7, there are basically eight playoff contenders in the conference, five in the South and three in the North. All will likely finish over .500, having played at least five games against the others.

Here's each team's record against the other seven, and remaining games against them:

Team	Rec	Rem
Sioux Falls	2-0	3
Augustana (SD)	3-1	3
Minnesota State	2-2	3
Northern State	2-2	2
Wayne State (NE)	2-2	1
Winona State	1-2	3
Bemidji State	1-2	2
Minnesota–Duluth	0-2	3

Any NSIC team that finishes 9-2 or better will have a very good chance at the playoffs... but what's the maximum number that can do so? It looks to be five, in which case it's unlikely they all make it. But in a scenario where there aren't enough two-loss teams, a three-loss team with a winning record against teams over .500 would seem to have a strong case to make it in over LSC and RMAC teams.

[Thunder]

To be honest, that surprised me a bit... but really, other than those three teams you mentioned, it's hard to see anyone else that belongs.

A couple factors play to the NSIC's favor this year: first, the RMAC went 4-10 in non-conference games with none of the wins coming against teams over .500 (Midwestern State, Missouri S&T, and two over William Jewell). Meanwhile the LSC went 8-3... but seven of those wins were against the RMAC. Meaning that if you exclude those conferences' results against each other, they've gone 4-5 against everyone else with wins against Michigan Tech, Missouri S&T, and William Jewell twice and losses to Ferris State, Grand Valley State twice, Truman, and Southwest Baptist. And for the most part, the teams with the best wins or most forgivable non-conference losses all have questionable losses in-conference – the exceptions being Angelo, TAMUK, and Colorado Mines. The only other LSC/RMAC teams that don't have three losses are Central Washington (almost certainly would get in if they win out, but have yet to beat a team that's over .500) and Black Hills State (bad SOS which won't change much might keep them below 8-3 NSIC teams even if they win out).

Obviously the NSIC strength of schedule will average out to .500, but since everyone has two schools they don't play, most schools won't have SOS of exactly .500. It's easy to say that the South teams will have higher SOS because the South is 23-8 against the North with four cross-division games left, but it's a bit more complicated. Augustana will have a strong SOS because the two teams they don't play are Mary and Minot State, but Sioux Falls will have a sub-.500 SOS because they miss Bemidji State and Northern State. When we consider that Southwest Minnesota State's current 4-3 record is built off wins over the four worst teams in the conference and they're likely to finish 4-7, there are basically eight playoff contenders in the conference, five in the South and three in the North. All will likely finish over .500, having played at least five games against the others.

Here's each team's record against the other seven, and remaining games against them:

Team	Rec	Rem
Sioux Falls	2-0	3
Augustana (SD)	3-1	3
Minnesota State	2-2	3
Northern State	2-2	2
Wayne State (NE)	2-2	1
Winona State	1-2	3
Bemidji State	1-2	2
Minnesota–Duluth	0-2	3

Any NSIC team that finishes 9-2 or better will have a very good chance at the playoffs... but what's the maximum number that can do so? It looks to be five, in which case it's unlikely they all make it. But in a scenario where there aren't enough two-loss teams, a three-loss team with a winning record against teams over .500 would seem to have a strong case to make it in over LSC and RMAC teams.

I always find your posts very interesting and for anyone that hasn't checked it out you can see Inkblot's numbers on his website. All of this is great, but it makes me even more depressed that Northern laid an egg for the second year in a row vs. Mary. They would still have had to beat Bemidji and Duluth to make the playoffs but they would've had a shot. Even beating those two now and finishing 8-3 probably isn't enough without some help.

[laker]

Is Amtrak still around?

Looks like it is currently unavailable. I used to see the status on Twitter.

Minot, ND (MOT) | Amtrak

[NSU4LIFE]

I always find your posts very interesting and for anyone that hasn't checked it out you can see Inkblot's numbers on his website. All of this is great, but it makes me even more depressed that Northern laid an egg for the second year in a row vs. Mary. They would still have had to beat Bemidji and Duluth to make the playoffs but they would've had a shot. Even beating those two now and finishing 8-3 probably isn't enough without some help.

Well, let's just win out and see what happens! Haha

[laker]

Update on AMTRAK: This is why I wouldn't take it to go to a game in Minot.

MN Rail Notes on Twitter: "As of 0457, the Empire Builder departed Rugby, ND 5hrs 8min late. Next stop: Devils Lake, ND. Per https://t.co/Onc1yA0URS, they are due into @UnionDepot at 1245, 4hrs 12min late (likely to change). #Amtrak https://t.co/1C66fDwOP3" / Twitter

[MrMustang]

Update on AMTRAK: This is why I wouldn't take it to go to a game in Minot.

MN Rail Notes on Twitter: "As of 0457, the Empire Builder departed Rugby, ND 5hrs 8min late. Next stop: Devils Lake, ND. Per https://t.co/Onc1yA0URS, they are due into @UnionDepot at 1245, 4hrs 12min late (likely to change). #Amtrak https://t.co/1C66fDwOP3" / Twitter

if time isn't a factor it would be fun

[MrMustang]

Update on AMTRAK: This is why I wouldn't take it to go to a game in Minot.

MN Rail Notes on Twitter: "As of 0457, the Empire Builder departed Rugby, ND 5hrs 8min late. Next stop: Devils Lake, ND. Per https://t.co/Onc1yA0URS, they are due into @UnionDepot at 1245, 4hrs 12min late (likely to change). #Amtrak https://t.co/1C66fDwOP3" / Twitter

plenty of interesting places on the way to Minot if you drive. Lots of Dakota, underrated scenery, and neat small towns

[laker]

plenty of interesting places on the way to Minot if you drive. Lots of Dakota, underrated scenery, and neat small towns

Been there three times- twice for football, once for basketball. Drove up, stayed at Harvey twice after the game, stayed in Minot once. Went over on 2, up on 52 through Velva, and back down 83 to Bismarck. I like to go different routes if possible.

[NSU4LIFE]

plenty of interesting places on the way to Minot if you drive. Lots of Dakota, underrated scenery, and neat small towns

There are TWO states, not just one...I'll DM you a funny story about this someday but quit lumping my beautiful, blemishless home state with those people who can't spell Bison correctly. Haha

[NSU4LIFE]

Been there three times- twice for football, once for basketball. Drove up, stayed at Harvey twice after the game, stayed in Minot once. Went over on 2, up on 52 through Velva, and back down 83 to Bismarck. I like to go different routes if possible.

But did you go see the Pyramid?