West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[boatcapt]

I excluded those 3 games because they were not playing the wlu style, not because they lost. They must have been playing the infamous auxiliary style! LOL just kidding.

The key to high quality in any process is to reduce variation. We will reach 1.3 ppp by reducing the number of 1.1 to 1.15 ppp games.

if we can get the avg turnovers below 10 that should help. Crutchs teams did not commit as many charges if memory serves me correctlly, which resulted in fewer turnovers. Clearly a doable goal for 21/22 team.

To quote and slightly modify what Bill Parcel said - "You are what your record (and stats) say you are.

There appears to be a realistic maximum of efficiency to the WLU style. There are two teams that run the WLU Style 100%...West Liberty AND Nova Southeastern. Last two seasons Crutch and Nova achieved 1.25 and 1.2 PPP. Just as you postulate that the limit of "hero ball" is 1.1 PPP, based on the available evidence, it appears that the limit of the WLU Style may be in the 1.25-1.28 range.

Also interesting to look at Nova's roster make-up. You see many players who can shoot the 3 (just like WLU) and there are some tall Euro types with outside chops (WLU now has one)...but you also see a few bigs who are much less accomplished from outside. For example former Fairmont player 6'8", 210 RJ Sunahara. He started 28 games in 19/20 and averaged 25.6 minutes, shot .608 from the field but only .261 from 3 (only 23 tries) but had 42 blocked shots and 202 rebounds. Those latter two numbers would have put him first (by a large margin) and second (behind only Bolon) on WLU. He also averaged 12.8 PPG which would have placed him #4 on WLU ahead of Boswell, Moore, and NcKiney. Shot .260 from 3 in HS in Ohio so clearly WLU had no interest in him...But Crutch did have interest and figured out how to use him to great effect...even though he doesn't fit into the mold of a "WLU Style" player. And somehow, Nova was able to improve their PPP efficiency even with a non-conforming big who played a more traditional game. Guess "Saint Crutch" is still teaching lessons for those who care to pay attention.

As a side note, it is going to be interesting to watch what happens at Bluefield State. Former WLU player and Crutch assistant at Nova Devin Hoehn was hired and he flat out implied that he was installing the WLU Style immediately. I'm interested in seeing how "efficient" it is in year one.

[Columbuseer]

Stat's always improve when people exclude their teams worst showings. I always challenge them by saying, if you want to exclude the three worst performances, then you equally need to exclude the three BEST performances.

Yea...Improving shooting always makes you a better team as does committing fewer TO's and charging fouls. Cue Captain Obvious saying, we'd win a lot more games...if we just upped our scoring by 20 points per game, committed no TO's and stopped charging.

As I've said before the effort necessary to get the last few percentages of efficiency in any thing is a monumental difficult thing to do. The PPP for VERY good WLU teams under Ben and in Crutch's last four years indicates that we are probably at or very close to the practical efficiency limit of WLU's style. IMHO, to get that last bit of efficiency, we would need to increase practice time WAY beyond what the NCAA will allow.

I excluded those 3 games because they were not playing the wlu style, not because they lost. They must have been playing the infamous auxiliary style! LOL just kidding.

The key to high quality in any process is to reduce variation. We will reach 1.3 ppp by reducing the number of 1.1 to 1.15 ppp games.

if we can get the avg turnovers below 10 that should help. Crutchs teams did not commit as many charges if memory serves me correctlly, which resulted in fewer turnovers. Clearly a doable goal for 21/22 team.

[boatcapt]

It is really hard to break 1.3 ppp season average. Coach Howlett said that they got away from playing wlu basketball during their 3 game losing streak. If you exclude those games, the 20/21 team ppp was 1.28, which equals crutchs best last 4 teams.

IMHO the upside is much higher for the current team, compared to crutchs teams.

• they can play shutdown half court defense. Look at ppp of hillsdale game, and Hillsdale is a great defensive and offensive team.
• Many more players who are capable of finishing at the rim as well as hitting the three. Crutchs teams lived and died by the three and forcing turnovers.
• More players who are very difficult to defend without help
• Among nations leaders in offensive rebounding

Areas of improvement compared to prior teams

• improve 3 pt shooting - several guys dropped 10 percentage points from prior year. Team avg went from 40+ % to 36.8%.
• Prior teams rotated the ball faster and had better timing on back cuts, thus distorting the defense
• Many guys are cutting and getting open too early before passer is ready to deliver the ball
• More screens and movement without ball, and less standing on perimeter
• Need to commit fewer turnovers, especially charging fouls. everyone like to fly the friendly skies instead of doing jump stop for 8 ft jumper

if they improve in these areas, they could raise the ppp and reduce variation between of ppp throughout season. I will take better athletes every time.

Stat's always improve when people exclude their teams worst showings. I always challenge them by saying, if you want to exclude the three worst performances, then you equally need to exclude the three BEST performances.

Yea...Improving shooting always makes you a better team as does committing fewer TO's and charging fouls. Cue Captain Obvious saying, we'd win a lot more games...if we just upped our scoring by 20 points per game, committed no TO's and stopped charging.

As I've said before the effort necessary to get the last few percentages of efficiency in any thing is a monumental difficult thing to do. The PPP for VERY good WLU teams under Ben and in Crutch's last four years indicates that we are probably at or very close to the practical efficiency limit of WLU's style. IMHO, to get that last bit of efficiency, we would need to increase practice time WAY beyond what the NCAA will allow.

[Columbuseer]

Did some comparison of WLU's teams during the last four years (under Ben's tenure). On paper, the "quality" (athletacism, basketball IQ, D1 caliber...what ever you want to call it) has increased markedly. One would think this improvement in talent would result in a higher level of efficiency as more D1 players enter the program, but that doesn't seem to be the case. In fact, as measured by the PPP metric, over the last four seasons WLU's PPP has gone as follows:

2017/18 1.28 PPP
2018/19 1.27 PPP
2019/20 1.26 PPP
2020/21 1.25 PPP

While all are impressive numbers, the downward trend line, coupled with the improvement in D1 talent, makes me question weather we can efficiency our way to a NC.

In fact, looking back at Crutch's last four teams (including the NC game team), he was able to achieve the same PPP with lesser talent (16/17 1.27 PPP, 15/16 1.23, 14/15 1.28, 13/14 1.26).

It is really hard to break 1.3 ppp season average. Coach Howlett said that they got away from playing wlu basketball during their 3 game losing streak. If you exclude those games, the 20/21 team ppp was 1.28, which equals crutchs best last 4 teams.

IMHO the upside is much higher for the current team, compared to crutchs teams.

• they can play shutdown half court defense. Look at ppp of hillsdale game, and Hillsdale is a great defensive and offensive team.
• Many more players who are capable of finishing at the rim as well as hitting the three. Crutchs teams lived and died by the three and forcing turnovers.
• More players who are very difficult to defend without help
• Among nations leaders in offensive rebounding

Areas of improvement compared to prior teams

• improve 3 pt shooting - several guys dropped 10 percentage points from prior year. Team avg went from 40+ % to 36.8%.
• Prior teams rotated the ball faster and had better timing on back cuts, thus distorting the defense
• Many guys are cutting and getting open too early before passer is ready to deliver the ball
• More screens and movement without ball, and less standing on perimeter
• Need to commit fewer turnovers, especially charging fouls. everyone like to fly the friendly skies instead of doing jump stop for 8 ft jumper

if they improve in these areas, they could raise the ppp and reduce variation between of ppp throughout season. I will take better athletes every time.

[boatcapt]

FYI

Shows points per possession (ppp) by game, which allows one to compare teams regardless of pace of play or style. Highest ppp always wins.
WLU season average was 1.25, which is incredible.
However if we exclude the 3 regular season hero ball losses, the ppp rises to 1.28.
typical d1 styles max out at 1.1 to 1.15 among elite teams (excluding Gonzaga).
Very rare for a team to lose if team averages over 1.3 ppp in a game.


10 games were over 1.3 ppp
4 games were over 1.45 ppp
highest was 1.59 ppp against fairmont at home.
So there is room for improvement in the players' execution of the wlu style.

Best opponent ppp was 1.46 by fairmont in mec final. One of rare cases where wlu was 1.38 ppp and lost. In elite 8, NWMSU was 1.42 (big surprise lol)

Opponent	Date	Score	w/l	WL num possession	WL points per possession	OPPONENTS points per possession
NOTRE DAME COLLEGE	01/07/21	98-77	W	75	1.31	1.04
at Alderson Broaddus	01/10/21	123-73	W	82	1.5	0.91
at Fairmont St.	01/13/21	96-84	W	89	1.08	0.94
FROSTBURG STATE	01/15/21	134-72	W	97	1.38	0.76
at Concord	01/20/21	83-91	L	82	1.01	1.15
W.VA. STATE	01/27/21	96-100	L	88	1.09	1.1
at Charleston (WV)	01/30/21	74-78	L	71	1.04	1.11
GLENVILLE STATE	02/01/21	117-85	W	99	1.18	0.89
ALDERSON BROADDUS	02/03/21	117-78	W	85	1.38	0.95
W.VA. WESLEYAN	02/07/21	111-64	W	93	1.19	0.72
WHEELING UNIVERSITY	02/10/21	119-76	W	81	1.47	0.96
at Notre Dame (OH)	02/13/21	89-84	W	78	1.14	1.08
at Frostburg St.	02/20/21	128-75	W	87	1.47	0.87
at Davis & Elkins	02/22/21	77-59	W	68	1.13	0.88
FAIRMONT ST.	02/24/21	126-96	W	79	1.59	1.23
at Wheeling	02/27/21	107-88	W	82	1.3	1.09
vs Concord	03/05/21	102-68	W	86	1.19	0.82
vs Glenville St.	03/06/21	95-92	W	73	1.3	1.26
vs Fairmont St.	03/07/21	99-102	L	72	1.38	1.46
MALONE	03/13/21	94-89	W	81	1.16	1.03
CHARLESTON (WV)	03/14/21	82-63	W	65	1.26	0.98
HILLSDALE COLLEGE	03/16/21	78-61	W	73	1.07	0.82
vs Northwest Mo. St.	03/24/21	77-98	L	70	1.1	1.42

Did some comparison of WLU's teams during the last four years (under Ben's tenure). On paper, the "quality" (athletacism, basketball IQ, D1 caliber...what ever you want to call it) has increased markedly. One would think this improvement in talent would result in a higher level of efficiency as more D1 players enter the program, but that doesn't seem to be the case. In fact, as measured by the PPP metric, over the last four seasons WLU's PPP has gone as follows:

2017/18 1.28 PPP
2018/19 1.27 PPP
2019/20 1.26 PPP
2020/21 1.25 PPP

While all are impressive numbers, the downward trend line, coupled with the improvement in D1 talent, makes me question weather we can efficiency our way to a NC.

In fact, looking back at Crutch's last four teams (including the NC game team), he was able to achieve the same PPP with lesser talent (16/17 1.27 PPP, 15/16 1.23, 14/15 1.28, 13/14 1.26).

[Columbuseer]

FYI

Shows points per possession (ppp) by game, which allows one to compare teams regardless of pace of play or style. Highest ppp always wins.
WLU season average was 1.25, which is incredible.
However if we exclude the 3 regular season hero ball losses, the ppp rises to 1.28.
typical d1 styles max out at 1.1 to 1.15 among elite teams (excluding Gonzaga).
Very rare for a team to lose if team averages over 1.3 ppp in a game.


10 games were over 1.3 ppp
4 games were over 1.45 ppp
highest was 1.59 ppp against fairmont at home.
So there is room for improvement in the players' execution of the wlu style.

Best opponent ppp was 1.46 by fairmont in mec final. One of rare cases where wlu was 1.38 ppp and lost. In elite 8, NWMSU was 1.42 (big surprise lol)

Opponent	Date	Score	w/l	WL num possession	WL points per possession	OPPONENTS points per possession
NOTRE DAME COLLEGE	01/07/21	98-77	W	75	1.31	1.04
at Alderson Broaddus	01/10/21	123-73	W	82	1.5	0.91
at Fairmont St.	01/13/21	96-84	W	89	1.08	0.94
FROSTBURG STATE	01/15/21	134-72	W	97	1.38	0.76
at Concord	01/20/21	83-91	L	82	1.01	1.15
W.VA. STATE	01/27/21	96-100	L	88	1.09	1.1
at Charleston (WV)	01/30/21	74-78	L	71	1.04	1.11
GLENVILLE STATE	02/01/21	117-85	W	99	1.18	0.89
ALDERSON BROADDUS	02/03/21	117-78	W	85	1.38	0.95
W.VA. WESLEYAN	02/07/21	111-64	W	93	1.19	0.72
WHEELING UNIVERSITY	02/10/21	119-76	W	81	1.47	0.96
at Notre Dame (OH)	02/13/21	89-84	W	78	1.14	1.08
at Frostburg St.	02/20/21	128-75	W	87	1.47	0.87
at Davis & Elkins	02/22/21	77-59	W	68	1.13	0.88
FAIRMONT ST.	02/24/21	126-96	W	79	1.59	1.23
at Wheeling	02/27/21	107-88	W	82	1.3	1.09
vs Concord	03/05/21	102-68	W	86	1.19	0.82
vs Glenville St.	03/06/21	95-92	W	73	1.3	1.26
vs Fairmont St.	03/07/21	99-102	L	72	1.38	1.46
MALONE	03/13/21	94-89	W	81	1.16	1.03
CHARLESTON (WV)	03/14/21	82-63	W	65	1.26	0.98
HILLSDALE COLLEGE	03/16/21	78-61	W	73	1.07	0.82
vs Northwest Mo. St.	03/24/21	77-98	L	70	1.1	1.42

[boatcapt]

Just to be clear, I do not advocate the work harder approach. My comnent was refuting that suggestion. The wlu coaches work incredibly long hours while having far less than the resources and $3M a year salary of d1 coaches. We are so fortunate to have them as all three have received national recognition in their profession.

I would hope they are going to work harder to get more D1 calibre players to play at WLU. What WLU does is not "new" anymore. Yes it is still relatively unique, but after close to 20 years, it's not new. So to get higher quality players to commit, they are going to have to work harder. Same with the team in practice. To improve on their already incredably high efficiency, they are going to have to work that much harder. Either that or just hope luck and good tourney seeding can carry them to a NC.

[Columbuseer]

We'll see if the work harder, "more cow bell" approach is really all WLU needs to do to get over the hump because, clearly, Ben is not going to change.

Just to be clear, I do not advocate the work harder approach. My comment was refuting that suggestion. The wlu coaches work incredibly long hours while having far less than the resources and $3M a year salary of d1 coaches. We are so fortunate to have them, as all three have received national recognition in their profession.

[boatcapt]

I would suggest that the overall talent level has been steadily increasing in each of the last four years, with this year's class of freshmen and transfers being potentially the highest yet. If it continues to climb, in another 2 or 3 years, look out!

Coach Howlett is a tireless recruiter, but it is a false dichotomy to suggest "work harder" is the only alternative for better talent. Some alternatives:

• Each year the wlu record of success is getting the attention of more players each year across a larger geographical area, who are already familiar with their style. Big advantage in recruiting. I wonder if we could approach the point where we select, more than recruit (demand exceeds available scholarships).
• More players are considering wlu along with d1 offers.
• Wlu has gotten their first eastern European player, which may open new pools of players, who are generally more complete players than American players
• The data does not support the assertion that wlu offense or defense has hit the point of dismissing returns. A few examples:
  • Wlu is getting more shutdown defenders like Cmont Montague , who are also complete players, which will lower opponent's ppp.
  • Wlu averages 1.25 ppp, which is incredible. But when the ball does not stick, they are capable of 1.3 to 1.4 ppp ( look at home game against fairmont).
  • When wlu players stay in the moment and focused, we will give up much fewer opponent run outs for layups after a wlu score.
  • Viktor is also a shot blocker and solid defender at 6-8

We'll see if the work harder, "more cow bell" approach is really all WLU needs to do to get over the hump because, clearly, Ben is not going to change.

[Columbuseer]

You posit that WLU's lack of ultimate success in the NCAA Tourney can be overcome by:

1. Continued increase in talent level,
2. Improved team defense,
3. Improved individual defense,
4. Improved execution of the WLU style

I would counter that WLU, particularly with regard to the 2, 3 and 4, is already far into an area of diminishing returns. As you have amply demonstrated WLU's offensive and defensive styles is already operating at an incredibly high level of efficiency and productivity. The law of diminishing returns amply points out that the amount of effort necessary for WLU to improve on their current level of effectiveness will be exponentially greater than the level necessary to get to this point. While this might be possible given unlimited practice time, I would note that the NCAA does not provide WLU with unlimited practice time.

Concerning WLU continuing to increase its talent level, I would again point out diminishing returns as a limiting factor. Ben has done an outstanding job of improving the overall talent over the last several years. By all accounts I have heard, he is a tireless recruiter who puts in long hours identifying players, and actively recruiting them. But again, there are only so many hours in the day and so many players he can scout and recruit. I would also note that he is limited by a couple of other factors that being number of scholarships and competition from other coaches

I would suggest that the overall talent level has been steadily increasing in each of the last four years, with this year's class of freshmen and transfers being potentially the highest yet. If it continues to climb, in another 2 or 3 years, look out!

Coach Howlett is a tireless recruiter, but it is a false dichotomy to suggest "work harder" is the only alternative for better talent. Some alternatives:

• Each year the wlu record of success is getting the attention of more players each year across a larger geographical area, who are already familiar with their style. Big advantage in recruiting. I wonder if we could approach the point where we select, more than recruit (demand exceeds available scholarships).
• More players are considering wlu along with d1 offers.
• Wlu has gotten their first eastern European player, which may open new pools of players, who are generally more complete players than American players
• The data does not support the assertion that wlu offense or defense has hit the point of dismissing returns. A few examples:
  • Wlu is getting more shutdown defenders like Cmont Montague , who are also complete players, which will lower opponent's ppp.
  • Wlu averages 1.25 ppp, which is incredible. But when the ball does not stick, they are capable of 1.3 to 1.4 ppp ( look at home game against fairmont).
  • When wlu players stay in the moment and focused, we will give up much fewer opponent run outs for layups after a wlu score.
  • Viktor is also a shot blocker and solid defender at 6-8

[boatcapt]

From a dummy's perspective, I would suggest that there are other viable alternatives , such as:
1. continually increase the level of talent as well as depth of talent on roster
2. Improve team defense??
3.improve individual defense
4. Improve execution of wlu style through faster ball movement,.

Probably there are many other alternatives. If not considered, one can fall into the "false dilemma" fallacy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma


Here is excerpt from wiki:

A false dilemma, also referred to as false dichotomy, is an informal fallacy based on a premise that erroneously limits what options are available.

.....
Part of understanding fallacies involves going beyond logic to empirical psychology in order to explain why there is a tendency to commit or fall for the fallacy in question.^[9][1] In the case of the false dilemma, the tendency to simplify reality by ordering it through either-or-statements may play an important role. This tendency is to some extent built into our language, which is full of pairs of opposites.^[5] This type of simplification is sometimes necessary to make decisions when there is not enough time to get a more detailed perspective.

In order to avoid false dilemmas, the agent should become aware of additional options besides the prearranged alternatives. Critical thinking and creativity may be necessary to see through the false dichotomy and to discover new alternatives.^[1]

You posit that WLU's lack of ultimate success in the NCAA Tourney can be overcome by:

1. Continued increase in talent level,
2. Improved team defense,
3. Improved individual defense,
4. Improved execution of the WLU style

I would counter that WLU, particularly with regard to the 2, 3 and 4, is already far into an area of diminishing returns. As you have amply demonstrated WLU's offensive and defensive styles is already operating at an incredibly high level of efficiency and productivity. The law of diminishing returns amply points out that the amount of effort necessary for WLU to improve on their current level of effectiveness will be exponentially greater than the level necessary to get to this point. While this might be possible given unlimited practice time, I would note that the NCAA does not provide WLU with unlimited practice time.

Concerning WLU continuing to increase its talent level, I would again point out diminishing returns as a limiting factor. Ben has done an outstanding job of improving the overall talent over the last several years. By all accounts I have heard, he is a tireless recruiter who puts in long hours identifying players, and actively recruiting them. But again, there are only so many hours in the day and so many players he can scout and recruit. I would also note that he is limited by a couple of other factors that being number of scholarships and competition from other coaches

[Columbuseer]

No...My point is that:

1. Not every style of play, even when run to the N'th degree of efficiency, is capable of winning championships,
2. Every system has its weaknesses,
3. When faced with 1 and opponents who increasingly can exploit 2, a team can either:
a. Accept the limitation of the style and plow ahead (Note: This limitation can be VERY high as in the case of WLU) hoping that a set of circumstances happen that lead to a NC, or,
b. Realize there is a need to adapt and change to "get over the hump" by,
i. Changing styles completely to one that may be more successful, OR,
ii. Adding a secondary "style" in an effort to get over the few humps you might have during a season and in the NCAA Tourney.

WLU has always had high IQ players but not necessarily the most physically capable. They operated and THRIVED operating in a system that emphasized unselfish play, ball movement, pressure, spot-up 3 point shooting and STAMINA! Over the last several years, WLU has started getting higher caliber athletes that would probably be capable of operating a number of styles at a very efficient manner without sacrifising much if any efficiency in its primary style.

From a dummy's perspective, I would suggest that there are other viable alternatives , such as:
1. continually increase the level of talent as well as depth of talent on roster
2. Improve team defense??
3.improve individual defense
4. Improve execution of wlu style through faster ball movement,.

Probably there are many other alternatives. If not considered, one can fall into the "false dilemma" fallacy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma


Here is excerpt from wiki:

A false dilemma, also referred to as false dichotomy, is an informal fallacy based on a premise that erroneously limits what options are available.

.....
Part of understanding fallacies involves going beyond logic to empirical psychology in order to explain why there is a tendency to commit or fall for the fallacy in question.^[9][1] In the case of the false dilemma, the tendency to simplify reality by ordering it through either-or-statements may play an important role. This tendency is to some extent built into our language, which is full of pairs of opposites.^[5] This type of simplification is sometimes necessary to make decisions when there is not enough time to get a more detailed perspective.

In order to avoid false dilemmas, the agent should become aware of additional options besides the prearranged alternatives. Critical thinking and creativity may be necessary to see through the false dichotomy and to discover new alternatives.^[1]

[Columbuseer]

FYI
WLU Aiden Satterfield has been working out against TBT pro team "Herd That", comprised of ex-Marshall stars and is shown hitting a three.
Obviously, he understands that the greatest improvement comes when you play against others that are better than you. Impressive! He has a very bright future at wlu!

https://twitter.com/aidensatt1/statu...673379847?s=20

[boatcapt]

You will have to be patient with me, because I am a dummy.

I thought your proposition was: If a team wins a national championship, then a team has an auxiliary style.
In deductive reasoning form of if P then Q, P= team wins national championship and Q = Team has an auxiliary style

NWMSU won a national championship (P)
therefore, if the proposition is valid, then Q must be true (NWMSU had an auxiliary style).
However, NWMSU does NOT run an auxiliary style - Q is false.

Therefore the proposition cannot be true (that an auxiliary style is needed to win a national championship). So NWMSU does not prove your point.

If you have evidence that NWMSU runs an auxiliary style, please let me know.

Coach Howlett was quoted in interview before the game that NWMSU was going to run their stuff and they don't change for anyone; similarly WLU does not change what they do.

I think NWMSU illustrates that you need at least 3 D1 players on your team, in addition to a great coach and a high PPP style; With Will hurt, WLU only had two d1 level players (however, there are younger players who might be playing at that level in a year or two).

Watch the finals post game interview with the West Texas Coach, "That [NWMSU] was NOT a D2 team we played today".


However, I think it should be noted that each game is an independent event.
It is like flipping a coin. If it comes up tails twice in a row, what are the odds of it coming up tails on the third flip? It is a probability of 0.5 They are independent events, just like each national championship game.

I understand that folks want WLU to win it all (no more so than the coaches and players).
We will have improved chances of winning a national championship when we have 3 D1 level players and execute our style at a level of precision equal to NWMSU.

No...My point is that:

1. Not every style of play, even when run to the N'th degree of efficiency, is capable of winning championships,
2. Every system has its weaknesses,
3. When faced with 1 and opponents who increasingly can exploit 2, a team can either:
a. Accept the limitation of the style and plow ahead (Note: This limitation can be VERY high as in the case of WLU) hoping that a set of circumstances happen that lead to a NC, or,
b. Realize there is a need to adapt and change to "get over the hump" by,
i. Changing styles completely to one that may be more successful, OR,
ii. Adding a secondary "style" in an effort to get over the few humps you might have during a season and in the NCAA Tourney.

WLU has always had high IQ players but not necessarily the most physically capable. They operated and THRIVED operating in a system that emphasized unselfish play, ball movement, pressure, spot-up 3 point shooting and STAMINA! Over the last several years, WLU has started getting higher caliber athletes that would probably be capable of operating a number of styles at a very efficient manner without sacrifising much if any efficiency in its primary style.

[Columbuseer]

The stats about WLU's E8+ "success"...but lack of a NC...proves my point. They are the most successful team in DII to NOT win a NC...That is NOT what I want to be known for.

You point out NWMSU being successful with their chosen "style" playing it at a very efficient level and turning that into THREE NC's. WLU plays their chosen "style" at an equally efficient level and has turned it into ZERO NC's. IMHO, there is very little increased efficiency that can be rung out of our current style. So we have three options:

1. HOPE we go on a heater at the right time.
2. HOPE we don't meet the top seeded team in the E8 AND hope another team can nock them out before we meet them.
3. Try and increase the efficiency of our style from 95 to 100, either by practicing harder OR bring in 3 high D1-level players, and HOPE that is enough.

As one of my coaches said back in the day, HOPE is for losers who failed to prepare to win.

You will have to be patient with me, because I am a dummy.

I thought your proposition was: If a team wins a national championship, then a team has an auxiliary style.
In deductive reasoning form of if P then Q, P= team wins national championship and Q = Team has an auxiliary style

NWMSU won a national championship (P)
therefore, if the proposition is valid, then Q must be true (NWMSU had an auxiliary style).
However, NWMSU does NOT run an auxiliary style - Q is false.

Therefore the proposition cannot be true (that an auxiliary style is needed to win a national championship). So NWMSU does not prove your point.

If you have evidence that NWMSU runs an auxiliary style, please let me know.

Coach Howlett was quoted in interview before the game that NWMSU was going to run their stuff and they don't change for anyone; similarly WLU does not change what they do.

I think NWMSU illustrates that you need at least 3 D1 players on your team, in addition to a great coach and a high PPP style; With Will hurt, WLU only had two d1 level players (however, there are younger players who might be playing at that level in a year or two).

Watch the finals post game interview with the West Texas Coach, "That [NWMSU] was NOT a D2 team we played today".


However, I think it should be noted that each game is an independent event.
It is like flipping a coin. If it comes up tails twice in a row, what are the odds of it coming up tails on the third flip? It is a probability of 0.5 They are independent events, just like each national championship game.

I understand that folks want WLU to win it all (no more so than the coaches and players).
We will have improved chances of winning a national championship when we have 3 D1 level players and execute our style at a level of precision equal to NWMSU.