NSIC 2023-24 Team Tiers

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

I felt like taking a crack at placing the NSIC men's teams into tiers. With just 5 weeks left of the regular season, I feel like we have a good sense of the caliber of these teams, and what their end-of-year aspirations should be.

TIER 1: Conference Title Contenders – it would count as a big surprise if one of these teams didn’t win the regular season title and/or make the national tournament.

#1 – Mankato – 1^st in OFF, 7^th in DEF, 1^st in margin

Even as a Dragons fan, I’ve always held that Mankato’s been the far superior team this season. They are doing EVERYTHING well. Look at these team rankings within the conference:

• 1^st – FG%; REB/G; AST/G; AST/TO (2^nd in nation)
• 2^nd – Def. FG%; 3PT%; Def. 3PT%; fouls/G; REB margin; TO margin; STL/G
• 3^rd – Def. FTA/G; Off. REB/G; TO/G

They’re also 1^st in 2^nd chance points/G (13.7), 1^st in 1^st half scoring margin (+10.3), and 1^st in 2^nd half scoring margin (+9.0). Before this weekend, they had only lost 1 half this season (down 1 to Duluth at halftime). (Now you can add to that a meaningless -2 2^nd half to Mary, and a very meaningful -13 1^st half to Minot, which I’ll touch on.)

And to me, the only reason they’re 7^th in scoring defense is due to their pace, as they have the 2^nd highest pace in the NSIC (72.4 possessions/G, only behind Concordia SP). With more possessions in a game, the other team is bound to get more points. The rest of Mankato’s defensive metrics are sound (DFG%, D3PT%, DFTA/G, forced TO/G, STL/G).

The brothers Willingham & Justin Eagins are all having their best seasons yet. Malik is orchestrating everything, getting to the line more, and getting in passing lanes, while Kyreese is hitting freaking everything (54.5% FG%, 4^th in the NSIC). Both have cut down on TOs, too. And Eagins is such a critical piece, nailing all these open 3s (44.2%, 5^th in the NSIC – min. 60 att.) that Malik’s drive-and-kicks generate. Elijah Hazekamp had really turned it on the last 6 games before Minot, and Dylan Peeters (before an apparent injury?) was still filling into whatever they needed him to do (19 REB against Concordia one night, 27 PTS against Duluth the next). The 3 guys off their bench know their roles and give them a super solid 8.

This Minot game did show they’re not invulnerable, though. Minot is a talented perimeter defense team who did a great job of walling off any dribble penetration into the lane. And if Peeters is gonna be out for a while (anyone have insight into that?), that makes me worry about their rebounding. Because while they are 1^st in REB/G, they’re just 9^th in def. REB% (74.6%), giving up a higher-than-average share of offensive rebounds to opponents.

Still, I felt like Mankato was able to shoot a fair amount of open 3s against Minot, they just missed them. That won’t happen often (again, 2^nd in 3PT%), and they’ve won enough close games against good teams such as SMSU, Duluth, and Bemidji that gives me confidence in their ability to handle the stress of a national tournament.


#2 – MSUM – 4^th in OFF, 6^th in DEF, 4^th in margin

The Dragons seem to have a refined sense of who they are and how they win games: win the possession battle & get to the free throw line. Those are the only major stat categories where they’re in the top 3 of the conference: 1^st in TO/G (tied with Duluth, both 2^nd in nation); 2^nd in forced TOs/G; 1^st in TO margin; 1^st in FTA/G. Those are two really good things to be good at come tourney time. When the game slows down, each individual possession matters more, and if the Dragons are intentional about not having wasted possessions and earning FTs, that can help in those late-game situations.

But their recent nail-biter against SMSU and loss to Sioux Falls showed that if the Dragons slip up on that just a little bit, it could get them in trouble (only +1 in FTA vs SMSU & even in TOs with USF). This team really struggles with 3PT shooting (14^th in 3PT% in NSIC), and the offense will get a little iso-heavy for my liking (14^th in AST/G).

And I think the recent injury to Gabe Myren is a big blow. He was the fulcrum of their switch-everything defense, as Bergstraser was happy to have him end a possession on either a hard-driving guard or a low post brute; Myren would be cunning and/or stout either way. With that gone, teams may be able to get into the lane easier, or force the Dragons to fight through more screens. (Plus, MSUM has to go deeper into their bench now, which is not nearly as deep as the previous few seasons).

However, this also strikes me as a VERY well-coached team, as they’ve had 4 conference games where they’ve been down or tied at half and had a +9 or greater 2^nd half scoring margin to secure the win (again, low turnovers and late-game FTs coming in clutch). Their players have well-defined roles and take turns on offense getting to their spots. A Jacob Beeninga toy-dribble to decide on a step-back 3 or drive-to-get-fouled; a Ja’Kair Sanchez or JaMir Price hesitation game of “Floater or Drive-To-Get-Fouled?”; a PNR dive with Dane Zimmer or PNR pop with Logan Kinsey. They run these plays so systematically, that it’s less vulnerable to the whims of one player having an off night. Their perimeter defense is also a hallmark, as they allow the least 3PT attempts/game (though that could slip a bit without Myren).

It's the same recipe that helped them win the last two conference tourneys. They’d likely be going up against a much tougher 1-seed this year, but there’s enough here that feels sturdier than if this team were reliant on the 3-point shot to win games.


#3 – Minot – 5^th in OFF, 1^st in DEF, 2^nd in margin

I can’t remember a team that was so mediocre one year (11-17, 7-15), brought back almost the entire same roster with no exciting additions, and came out so strong the following year. A massive kudos to Matt Murken & his staff for turning this tanker around faster than Logan Roy (and if you get that reference, I love you).

The Beavers have done so through their defense, as they’re #1 in scoring defense in the NSIC. Michael Jok is a DPOY candidate, as he showed against Mankato: digging on drives and rotating out to contest open 3s on time (the long arms help). The quick feet of Ben Bohl and their other perimeter defenders helps a lot, too. And while they lack an interior presence (13^th in NSIC in BLK/G), they do a great job of not fouling at the rim (2^nd in allowed FTA/G) and not allowing many offensive rebounds.

But ironically, I felt like this Mankato game was illustrative of the only major concern I have defensively for Minot. The Beavers allow a lot of 3PT attempts: 24.9 per game, the most in the conference. Right now, teams are hitting 32.8% of those shots, right around the league average of 33.2%. In the Mankato game, you could see how Minot’s perimeter defense made Mankato “settle” for many 3s, and they missed almost all of them first half. But if a team isn’t as frigid as Mankato was, the 3>2 math could get hard for Minot to combat.

On offense, they’re hitting the 3 better than any NSIC team (39.4%) with Bohl & Jaxon Gunville leading the way. And they hit their FTs at a good clip (76.2%, 3^rd in NSIC), they just have to earn more of them (15^th in FTA/G). That may be the missing piece for this team, and the thing that poses issues for them tourney-time: there’s not another impactful drive-to-the-basket guy after Khari Broadway. He’s doing a nice job of that, but for the minutes he’s sitting there doesn’t seem to be much off-the-bounce verve there.

But for the first time ever, the Beavers have a great shot to make the national tournament. The dam is built on defensive intensity and hot long-range shooting, and if those continue these next 6 weeks, they could absolutely steal a conference crown and assert “MSU” supremacy in the NSIC.

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

TIER 2: Hoping for National Tournament – each of these teams could realistically put together an NSIC tourney run to steal a bid

#4 – Duluth – 3^rd in OFF, 3^rd in DEF, 3^rd in margin

“Steal a bid” is probably too strong for Duluth, as they would probably be in the top 8 or 9 of any Central Region rankings right now. So assuming they don’t drop more than 2 or 3 the rest of the way or leave the NSIC tourney way too early, they’ll be more of a sure thing than anyone else in this tier.

Duluth makes their doghouse a doghome in the paint (I’m so sorry). They’re 1^st in paint points/G with 43.9 (way above the 34.2 conf. average), and 54.2% of their points come from the paint (NSIC average is 44.4%). Austin Andrews & Lincoln Meister are north of 60% on FGAs, and while Blair, Katona, Brown, and Mattie Thompson are all struggling from 3 this season, they’re still killing it from 2. Drew Blair still has great body control around the rim, or can stop on a dime for that midrange pull-up. This also helps them generate free throw attempts (3^rd in NSIC), and they’re careful enough to not lose the ball in there (1^st in TO/G, tied with MSUM, 2^nd nationally).

Duluth is also leading the conference in both def. FG% and def. 3PT% (2^nd national). They do an excellent job of contesting every shot, blocking many of them (3^rd in NSIC in BLK/G) with Meister and Brown leading the way there.

But goodness they need to figure it out from 3. 32.6% (13^th in NSIC) is not good enough for a team with very capable shooters. Blair’s having an off year for sure, but everyone else mentioned above is to blame, too. Duluth survived two stinker shooting nights in last year’s NSIC tourney, but couldn’t survive a third in the title game.

The story of Duluth’s conference season so far is their ability to blow the doors off of inferior teams, and lose to good teams. Continuing that trend into March would put an obvious limit to their ceiling, but no one can match Duluth’s experience in that month, so that can give them a shot to sneak an Elite 8 run like last year.


#5 – SMSU – 11^th in OFF, 8^th in DEF, 9^th in margin

The Mustangs are pretty up-and-down, as they’ll battle #1 teams in the country hard (beating Northwest Missouri on the 1^st weekend, taking it to OT against MSUM recently), but then drop games against Wayne & Concordia they should definitely be winning.

They shoot the ball well in all forms (4^th in FG%, 3^rd in 3PT%, 2^nd in FT%). They set themselves up for great shots with solid ball movement and a spread floor that often features at least 4 plausible 3-point shooters. With lots of space, Jake Phipps has all the room to set all the picks, and choose between rolling to the rim – where he can show off his deft touch – or pop out for a top-of-key three (albeit he’s shooting a bit worse from there this year). The space also permits Aeron Stevens to establish himself on the block, make a move or two, and earn some FTs. (The fact that he leads the NSIC with 6.0 FTA/G is so impressive for a freshman.)

They do a few things pretty solidly on defense, namely getting in passing lanes (3^rd in STL/G). Cliff Cofield is putting forth another worthy DPOY case, leading the conference in STL/G (1.9) and generally being a menace. And they have 4 capable shot-blockers (4^th in team BLK/G) that do a nice job of protecting the rim without fouling (4^th in DFTA/G).

But they have two major bugaboos that they need to fix to compete with the top 3 or 4 in the NSIC: defending the 3 and rebounding. They allow the 2^nd-most 3s per game (24.8), which could be fine if you defend it decently (like Minot does). But they’re also 14^th in def. 3PT%, allowing 36.5% of those shots to bang. They just need to make sure they’re not jumping lanes for steals at the risk of getting burnt on open 3s when they whiff. But rebounding is an even bigger issue, as they’re bad no matter how you look at it (15^th in REB/G or 14^th in def. REB%). This also dampens their ability to put up 2^nd chance points (13^th in 2^nd chance points/G) which is a natural drawback to having 4 guys space the floor around one Phipps.

But this is an experienced team, with an 8-man rotation that is very regular in its rotations this season (they’re the only team that plays 8 guys at 18+ MPG). Stuff like that can help in a 3-games-in-4-days scenario with the NSIC tournament, so maybe that’s an advantage in the margins that we can’t really account for in the stats.


#6 – Augie – 6^th in OFF, 11^th in DEF, 7^th in margin

Billeter’s boys have won 5 in a row with an average margin of victory of 23.6. And yes, most of those other teams were bad, and Bemidji shot like poo in their 1^st half, but a lot of those wins had to do with Augie executing on what they do well: defend the 3, force TOs, and move the ball around on offense.

Overall, Augie is pretty middling defensively. Their main weakness is defending the rim, as they’re 13^th in defensive 2-point FG% (52.6%) and dead last in BLK/G (1.42). They also foul at the 2^nd-highest rate in the conference (18.3 per game). But if they can persuade teams to not enter the lane, they do a good job of contesting 3s (5^th in def. 3PT%), and they’re strong in forcing turnovers (3^rd in NSIC). And the fact that they force so many turnovers means their rebounding numbers aren’t as bad as they look (10^th in REB/G). They’re actually 4^th in def. REB%, meaning they clean up opposing team’s missed shots at a good rate, there just happens to be less available rebounds to grab due to them forcing more turnovers.

Offensively, they’re a little better on the whole, hitting a very high clip of their FTs (78.9%, 1^st in NSIC) and a pretty high clip of their 3s (35.7%, 4^th in NSIC). Guys like Jaden Graves & Arhman Lewis make sure the ball gets passed around without committing turnovers, and those two guys could end up as #1 & #2 in AST/TO ratio by the end of the year (Lewis just doesn’t have enough volume right now). They also can get out on the break fast, as they rank 2^nd in the conference in fastbreak points/G (10.2).

The turning point of the season seems to be Billeter’s change to the starting lineup, as the team is 7-2 since putting Lewis & Caden Kirkman in the lineup. These two true freshmen have impressive poise for their age, and Lewis especially is a creative manipulator of the defense. Isaac Fink is a steady figure that’s ready for the postseason, so I absolutely think this team could gel at the right time to steal a few wins in the friendly confines of the Pentagon.


#7 – Bemidji – 7^th in OFF, 9^th in DEF, 6^th in margin

Bemidji’s strengths & weaknesses have been consistent all year: great at rebounding, terrible at 3-point shooting. The 3-point shooting has improved a bit with the insertion of BJ Davis to the starting lineup, as he’s hitting 46.5% of his treys, 4^th in the conference (min. 60 att.). But they’re still 12^th in 3PT%, a big problem when you’re shooting the 3^rd-most longballs per game (26.3). It’s become a Simple (game)Plan for opposing defenses: swarm John Sutherland when he gets a touch and force him to pass it to outside shooters. Guys like Dalton Albrecht and Johnny Tennyson are just not stepping up as much as they did last year.

Sutherland is still finding ways to get his, averaging 19.6 a night on 59.0% FG. But the less the ball is in his hands, the better it is for the other team. While he is averaging great assist numbers (4.1 AST/G, quite high for a big man), defenses are also forcing him to 3.3 TO/G, an issue emblematic of the whole team (13^th in TO/G).

But hey, at least all those long-range misses give Bemidji plenty of opportunities for offensive rebounds! They grab 12.5 ORBBs per game, a full rebound higher than anyone else in the NSIC. With that comes a lot of points in the paint (39.0 per game, 3^rd in NSIC) and 2^nd chance points (12.1 per game, 4^th in NSIC). Those can be dispiriting to opposing teams when they can happen in gobs, just as they did in an overtime loss to Mankato and an 11-point win against Minot.

So if they can shore up that 3-point shooting and turnovers even just a little bit, their fundamentals in rebounding, passing the ball, and not fouling can win them some rock fights in tourney play.

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

TIER 3: Could Upset a Contender – this is not any of these teams’ season, but they could put together enough on one night to topple a better team

#8 – Sioux Falls – 12^th in OFF, 4^th in DEF, 8^th in margin

I mean, we literally just saw Sioux Falls do this a couple weekends ago against #1 MSUM. The formula is simple: get offensive rebounds, and defend juuuuust well enough. They’ve been a great offensive rebounding team all year, ranking 3^rd in the NSIC in offensive REB% (32.5%), and 3^rd in 2^nd chance points/G (13.2). They’re 1^st in the conference in the percentage of their points that come from 2^nd chance points (17.9%), so it’s clear that they make that a point of emphasis. And against the Dragons, they executed: 14 OREBs and 18 2^nd chance points. And it wasn’t the 6’10” dudes that were pulling down the O-boards, a lot of their guards attacked the hoop, too (Shawn Warrior had 4 on his own).

They also did a good job of forcing the Dragons off their spots (it also helped that MSUM’s offense was very lethargic that night, in my view). In general, the Coo defend shots well (4^th in def. FG%, 3^rd in def. 3PT%) so that feels like something that’s very repeatable.

Sioux Falls is too limited offensively to really make a run at things. They do not shoot well outside of OREB putbacks (12^th in FG%), commit too many turnovers (11^th in TO/G), and the occasional off-the-bounce drive of Jack Thompson and Shawn Warrior wanes too much to be a consistent threat. But if they stick to that formula again, they could upset teams that are a little weak on the defensive glass like Mankato (9^th in def. REB%) or MSUM again (11^th in def. REB%).


#9 – Northern – 8^th in OFF, 14^th in DEF, 12^th in margin

This is a tier placement based entirely on the belief in two players, and the assumption they can actually hit on the insane volume of 3s they’re launching on a given night. Because Northern’s got a lot of problems: they shoot poorly (11^th in FG% & 3PT%), they defend shots poorly (14^th in def. FG%), they don’t get to the line (14^th in FTA/G), they don’t rebound well (bottom-4 in off, def, and total REB%), they don’t force TOs (12^th in forced TO/G). Most of this comes from a total lack of depth. They average just 10.9 bench points/G, dead last in the NSIC. Only Crookston is close to them (11.1), every other team is around 17 to 26 per game. So of course Josh Dilling, Jacksen Moni, & Gus Reede are #3, 4, & 5 in the conference in minutes per game. It’s like Tom Thibodeau is coaching these Wolves, he can’t trust anyone else!

And so that’s what would have to happen for the Wolves to get a win in the Pentagon. Dilling & Moni just need to go off (and Reede has to at least be serviceable). We’ve seen this happen this year, as the pair are tied for 3^rd in the NSIC with 20.3 points/G. And Northern shoots a crazy high number of 3s (28.9 per game, a full 2 attempts more than 2^nd place in the NSIC), so if those 3 guys can hit those shots on a given night, they can make the most use of their 40 minutes a night and give NSU a chance.


#10 – Wayne – 10^th in OFF, 2^nd in DEF, 5^th in margin

That scoring margin thing is very inflated by Wayne’s non-conference cupcake schedule. If you remove those 6 games, their scoring margin would actually be -1.49, which would put them 12^th. (To be fair, most NSIC teams’ scoring margin benefits from their non-conf schedule, so Wayne would probably be closer to middle-of-the-pack, but Wayne’s was just especially egregious.) So Wayne still has some big issues, namely an unimaginative halfcourt offense. They stagnate a lot, hoping a lowpost turnaround from Trey Deveaux will suffice. And despite being a slightly-above-average 3-point shooting team (35.0% 3PT%, 8^th in a conference with a 34.7% average), they shoot the least amount of 3s of any team in the league (19.2/G).

But the thing Wayne does better than anyone is force turnovers and RUN. They’re 1^st in TO/G, many of those coming off live-ball steals (1^st in STL/G). And they’re 1^st in fastbreak points/G (12.9) and the portion of their points that come from the break (17.0%, no one else is above 14.2%). The NSIC’s best teams are some of the best in the country at taking care of the ball, but if the matchup is right and Kaminsky’s Kats are “never resting”, then they could literally steal a game away from a tier-2 team (looking at you, turnover-prone Bemidji).

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

TIER 4: Just Trying to Get to the Pentagon – these teams have obvious limitations, and so just cracking the final 8 should be a win for them

#11 – Winona – 13^th in OFF, 5^th in DEF, 11^th in margin

That 5^th in scoring defense feels like such a misnomer to me. Because other than not fouling (4^th in fouls/G, 5^th in def. FTA/G), there’s nothing that they do especially well defensively. They defend FGs & 3PAs at below-average clips (8^th & 10^th in the NSIC respectively) and don’t bother offenses into making mistakes (14^th in forced TO/G). It’s really their languid pace of play that’s making it a top-5 scoring defense, as Winona’s slowest in the NSIC in possessions/G at 64.5.

That’d be fine if their slow pace was helping them on offense, but it’s not. It’s a lot of Connor Dillon dribbling, waiting until 10 seconds left on the shot clock to make a move, and then firing up a step-back 3 (he’s got the highest usage rate in the league at 34.3%). The most exciting part of their offense was the one good night of Olumide Adelodun against Northern. Unless the offense gets more egalitarian, or Dillon starts hitting more of those shots, this team is limited in what they can pull off.


12^th – St Cloud – 9^th in OFF, 12^th in DEF, 10^th in margin

This team’s surprised me with very close losses to MSUM & Bemidji. I can’t really make sense of what their rotation decisions are, other than the coach is gonna play everybody and see who’s helping on a given night. And that’s helping them be 1^st in the conference by a mile with 34.6 bench points/G (2^nd place is 26.8). It also means getting continuity is arduous, which does not lead to end-of-season success. I’m sure their goal is for next year, when guys like Luke Taylor, Matt Willert, and Joe Mutimer fall off the roster, and the rest of the freshmen already in the rotation now can get more minutes. So if they can hit enough 3s (4^th in 3PA/G & 3PM/G) to win a first round game to get to Sioux Falls, that would be a nice stepping stone for them.


13^th – Concordia SP – 2^nd in OFF, 15^th in DEF, 13^th in margin

Holy pace, Mattman! Coach Fletcher is having this team play the pace-and-space game, leading the conference in 76.2 possessions/G (next closest is 72.4), and 2^nd in 3PA/G (26.3). That pace accounts for the 2^nd-ranked scoring offense, as it’s not as if this team is terribly efficient offensively (8^th in FG%, 7^th in 3PT%). And defensively, they rack up the team fouls (15^th in fouls/G) and struggle to keep teams off the glass. So while pace-and-space can get other teams out of their rhythm and make some games surprisingly competitive (like vs. Northern & a blowout win vs. SMSU), they shouldn’t plan for an extended stay if they make it to Sioux Falls.



TIER 5: Maybe Next Year – or not. These teams just stink and it bums me out to talk about them, so Ima skip ‘em

14^th – Crookston - #15^th in OFF, 10^th in DEF, 15^th in margin

15^th – UMary – 14^th in OFF, 13^th in DEF, 14^th in margin

[Stanger86]

#5 – SMSU – 11^th in OFF, 8^th in DEF, 9^th in margin

The Mustangs are pretty up-and-down, as they’ll battle #1 teams in the country hard (beating Northwest Missouri on the 1^st weekend, taking it to OT against MSUM recently), but then drop games against Wayne & Concordia they should definitely be winning.

They shoot the ball well in all forms (4^th in FG%, 3^rd in 3PT%, 2^nd in FT%). They set themselves up for great shots with solid ball movement and a spread floor that often features at least 4 plausible 3-point shooters. With lots of space, Jake Phipps has all the room to set all the picks, and choose between rolling to the rim – where he can show off his deft touch – or pop out for a top-of-key three (albeit he’s shooting a bit worse from there this year). The space also permits Aeron Stevens to establish himself on the block, make a move or two, and earn some FTs. (The fact that he leads the NSIC with 6.0 FTA/G is so impressive for a freshman.)

They do a few things pretty solidly on defense, namely getting in passing lanes (3^rd in STL/G). Cliff Cofield is putting forth another worthy DPOY case, leading the conference in STL/G (1.9) and generally being a menace. And they have 4 capable shot-blockers (4^th in team BLK/G) that do a nice job of protecting the rim without fouling (4^th in DFTA/G).

But they have two major bugaboos that they need to fix to compete with the top 3 or 4 in the NSIC: defending the 3 and rebounding. They allow the 2^nd-most 3s per game (24.8), which could be fine if you defend it decently (like Minot does). But they’re also 14^th in def. 3PT%, allowing 36.5% of those shots to bang. They just need to make sure they’re not jumping lanes for steals at the risk of getting burnt on open 3s when they whiff. But rebounding is an even bigger issue, as they’re bad no matter how you look at it (15^th in REB/G or 14^th in def. REB%). This also dampens their ability to put up 2^nd chance points (13^th in 2^nd chance points/G) which is a natural drawback to having 4 guys space the floor around one Phipps.

But this is an experienced team, with an 8-man rotation that is very regular in its rotations this season (they’re the only team that plays 8 guys at 18+ MPG). Stuff like that can help in a 3-games-in-4-days scenario with the NSIC tournament, so maybe that’s an advantage in the margins that we can’t really account for in the stats.

First of all, great analysis from 1 through 13! Ha

I didn't have an answer earlier on, but reading your analysis made me realize SMSU has problems with pace and space, similar to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Look at the two worst losses of the conference year, Wayne and Concordia to your analysis are probably the two that play the quickest tempo in the league.

[vikingfaithful]

Mark Emmert's Burner, I applaud your long well thought out post You're correct about the emergence pf AU freshman, I would also add So. Caden Hinker.

[Moorhead123]

Great extended analysis. More confirmation that Msum has some of the most intelligent bball fans around!

[NSU4LIFE]

Great extended analysis. More confirmation that Msum has some of the most intelligent bball fans around!

Minus one

[Thunder]

Kudos to you sir. This was very informative and well written.

[Augieholic]

#3 – Minot – 5^th in OFF, 1^st in DEF, 2^nd in margin

I can’t remember a team that was so mediocre one year (11-17, 7-15), brought back almost the entire same roster with no exciting additions, and came out so strong the following year. A massive kudos to Matt Murken & his staff for turning this tanker around faster than Logan Roy (and if you get that reference, I love you).

The Beavers have done so through their defense, as they’re #1 in scoring defense in the NSIC. Michael Jok is a DPOY candidate, as he showed against Mankato: digging on drives and rotating out to contest open 3s on time (the long arms help). The quick feet of Ben Bohl and their other perimeter defenders helps a lot, too. And while they lack an interior presence (13^th in NSIC in BLK/G), they do a great job of not fouling at the rim (2^nd in allowed FTA/G) and not allowing many offensive rebounds.

But ironically, I felt like this Mankato game was illustrative of the only major concern I have defensively for Minot. The Beavers allow a lot of 3PT attempts: 24.9 per game, the most in the conference. Right now, teams are hitting 32.8% of those shots, right around the league average of 33.2%. In the Mankato game, you could see how Minot’s perimeter defense made Mankato “settle” for many 3s, and they missed almost all of them first half. But if a team isn’t as frigid as Mankato was, the 3>2 math could get hard for Minot to combat.

On offense, they’re hitting the 3 better than any NSIC team (39.4%) with Bohl & Jaxon Gunville leading the way. And they hit their FTs at a good clip (76.2%, 3^rd in NSIC), they just have to earn more of them (15^th in FTA/G). That may be the missing piece for this team, and the thing that poses issues for them tourney-time: there’s not another impactful drive-to-the-basket guy after Khari Broadway. He’s doing a nice job of that, but for the minutes he’s sitting there doesn’t seem to be much off-the-bounce verve there.

But for the first time ever, the Beavers have a great shot to make the national tournament. The dam is built on defensive intensity and hot long-range shooting, and if those continue these next 6 weeks, they could absolutely steal a conference crown and assert “MSU” supremacy in the NSIC.

This is all fantastic, especially the Succession reference which I used recently to discuss Augie's resurgence.

One thing I noticed in learning more about Minot before tonight's game is the shooting disparity between Minot and their opponents. As you mentioned opponents are shooting under 33% on 3s vs the Red Beavers, some of the is likely defense and some of it is luck. When you pair that with opponents dismal FT shooting, SIXTY SIX percent, it makes me wonder if the WIDE OPEN SPACE of the Minot Dome is wreaking havoc on the depth perception of their opponents. They have an extremely unusual schedule given the departure of UIU so perhaps that is driving it since prior seasons do not show nearly this big of a gap.

[Augieholic]

#6 – Augie – 6^th in OFF, 11^th in DEF, 7^th in margin

Billeter’s boys have won 5 in a row with an average margin of victory of 23.6. And yes, most of those other teams were bad, and Bemidji shot like poo in their 1^st half, but a lot of those wins had to do with Augie executing on what they do well: defend the 3, force TOs, and move the ball around on offense.

Overall, Augie is pretty middling defensively. Their main weakness is defending the rim, as they’re 13^th in defensive 2-point FG% (52.6%) and dead last in BLK/G (1.42). They also foul at the 2^nd-highest rate in the conference (18.3 per game). But if they can persuade teams to not enter the lane, they do a good job of contesting 3s (5^th in def. 3PT%), and they’re strong in forcing turnovers (3^rd in NSIC). And the fact that they force so many turnovers means their rebounding numbers aren’t as bad as they look (10^th in REB/G). They’re actually 4^th in def. REB%, meaning they clean up opposing team’s missed shots at a good rate, there just happens to be less available rebounds to grab due to them forcing more turnovers.

Offensively, they’re a little better on the whole, hitting a very high clip of their FTs (78.9%, 1^st in NSIC) and a pretty high clip of their 3s (35.7%, 4^th in NSIC). Guys like Jaden Graves & Arhman Lewis make sure the ball gets passed around without committing turnovers, and those two guys could end up as #1 & #2 in AST/TO ratio by the end of the year (Lewis just doesn’t have enough volume right now). They also can get out on the break fast, as they rank 2^nd in the conference in fastbreak points/G (10.2).

The turning point of the season seems to be Billeter’s change to the starting lineup, as the team is 7-2 since putting Lewis & Caden Kirkman in the lineup. These two true freshmen have impressive poise for their age, and Lewis especially is a creative manipulator of the defense. Isaac Fink is a steady figure that’s ready for the postseason, so I absolutely think this team could gel at the right time to steal a few wins in the friendly confines of the Pentagon.

The most impactful change offensively has been moving Lewis to the 1 and the corresponding shift of Graves playing many more minutes off the ball. Jaden's shooting percentages have almost immediately rebounded after a slow start to the season and I think the main reason is he's getting more open looks generated by Lewis bending the defense with the dribble drive. Yes this run has come against middle of the road or bad teams so tonight will be a great test to see if the tanker has been fully re-oriented or if it's stuck in canal.

[Moorhead123]

Minus one

;)

[MrMustang]

great info and analysis!

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

Thank you all for the kind words! I was a little worried that the length of the post or the preponderance of stats/rankings would be annoying, but glad to hear y'all didn't mind it.

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

First of all, great analysis from 1 through 13! Ha

I didn't have an answer earlier on, but reading your analysis made me realize SMSU has problems with pace and space, similar to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Look at the two worst losses of the conference year, Wayne and Concordia to your analysis are probably the two that play the quickest tempo in the league.

That's a good point! SMSU plays at a very slow pace (65.7 possessions/G, 2nd in NSIC), so it's definitely logical that teams like Concordia or Wayne forced the 'Stangs to play at a pace they don't handle well.