I felt like taking a crack at placing the NSIC men's teams into tiers. With just 5 weeks left of the regular season, I feel like we have a good sense of the caliber of these teams, and what their end-of-year aspirations should be.
TIER 1: Conference Title Contenders – it would count as a big surprise if one of these teams didn’t win the regular season title and/or make the national tournament.
#1 – Mankato – 1st in OFF, 7th in DEF, 1st in margin
Even as a Dragons fan, I’ve always held that Mankato’s been the far superior team this season. They are doing EVERYTHING well. Look at these team rankings within the conference:
And to me, the only reason they’re 7th in scoring defense is due to their pace, as they have the 2nd highest pace in the NSIC (72.4 possessions/G, only behind Concordia SP). With more possessions in a game, the other team is bound to get more points. The rest of Mankato’s defensive metrics are sound (DFG%, D3PT%, DFTA/G, forced TO/G, STL/G).
The brothers Willingham & Justin Eagins are all having their best seasons yet. Malik is orchestrating everything, getting to the line more, and getting in passing lanes, while Kyreese is hitting freaking everything (54.5% FG%, 4th in the NSIC). Both have cut down on TOs, too. And Eagins is such a critical piece, nailing all these open 3s (44.2%, 5th in the NSIC – min. 60 att.) that Malik’s drive-and-kicks generate. Elijah Hazekamp had really turned it on the last 6 games before Minot, and Dylan Peeters (before an apparent injury?) was still filling into whatever they needed him to do (19 REB against Concordia one night, 27 PTS against Duluth the next). The 3 guys off their bench know their roles and give them a super solid 8.
This Minot game did show they’re not invulnerable, though. Minot is a talented perimeter defense team who did a great job of walling off any dribble penetration into the lane. And if Peeters is gonna be out for a while (anyone have insight into that?), that makes me worry about their rebounding. Because while they are 1st in REB/G, they’re just 9th in def. REB% (74.6%), giving up a higher-than-average share of offensive rebounds to opponents.
Still, I felt like Mankato was able to shoot a fair amount of open 3s against Minot, they just missed them. That won’t happen often (again, 2nd in 3PT%), and they’ve won enough close games against good teams such as SMSU, Duluth, and Bemidji that gives me confidence in their ability to handle the stress of a national tournament.
#2 – MSUM – 4th in OFF, 6th in DEF, 4th in margin
The Dragons seem to have a refined sense of who they are and how they win games: win the possession battle & get to the free throw line. Those are the only major stat categories where they’re in the top 3 of the conference: 1st in TO/G (tied with Duluth, both 2nd in nation); 2nd in forced TOs/G; 1st in TO margin; 1st in FTA/G. Those are two really good things to be good at come tourney time. When the game slows down, each individual possession matters more, and if the Dragons are intentional about not having wasted possessions and earning FTs, that can help in those late-game situations.
But their recent nail-biter against SMSU and loss to Sioux Falls showed that if the Dragons slip up on that just a little bit, it could get them in trouble (only +1 in FTA vs SMSU & even in TOs with USF). This team really struggles with 3PT shooting (14th in 3PT% in NSIC), and the offense will get a little iso-heavy for my liking (14th in AST/G).
And I think the recent injury to Gabe Myren is a big blow. He was the fulcrum of their switch-everything defense, as Bergstraser was happy to have him end a possession on either a hard-driving guard or a low post brute; Myren would be cunning and/or stout either way. With that gone, teams may be able to get into the lane easier, or force the Dragons to fight through more screens. (Plus, MSUM has to go deeper into their bench now, which is not nearly as deep as the previous few seasons).
However, this also strikes me as a VERY well-coached team, as they’ve had 4 conference games where they’ve been down or tied at half and had a +9 or greater 2nd half scoring margin to secure the win (again, low turnovers and late-game FTs coming in clutch). Their players have well-defined roles and take turns on offense getting to their spots. A Jacob Beeninga toy-dribble to decide on a step-back 3 or drive-to-get-fouled; a Ja’Kair Sanchez or JaMir Price hesitation game of “Floater or Drive-To-Get-Fouled?”; a PNR dive with Dane Zimmer or PNR pop with Logan Kinsey. They run these plays so systematically, that it’s less vulnerable to the whims of one player having an off night. Their perimeter defense is also a hallmark, as they allow the least 3PT attempts/game (though that could slip a bit without Myren).
It's the same recipe that helped them win the last two conference tourneys. They’d likely be going up against a much tougher 1-seed this year, but there’s enough here that feels sturdier than if this team were reliant on the 3-point shot to win games.
#3 – Minot – 5th in OFF, 1st in DEF, 2nd in margin
I can’t remember a team that was so mediocre one year (11-17, 7-15), brought back almost the entire same roster with no exciting additions, and came out so strong the following year. A massive kudos to Matt Murken & his staff for turning this tanker around faster than Logan Roy (and if you get that reference, I love you).
The Beavers have done so through their defense, as they’re #1 in scoring defense in the NSIC. Michael Jok is a DPOY candidate, as he showed against Mankato: digging on drives and rotating out to contest open 3s on time (the long arms help). The quick feet of Ben Bohl and their other perimeter defenders helps a lot, too. And while they lack an interior presence (13th in NSIC in BLK/G), they do a great job of not fouling at the rim (2nd in allowed FTA/G) and not allowing many offensive rebounds.
But ironically, I felt like this Mankato game was illustrative of the only major concern I have defensively for Minot. The Beavers allow a lot of 3PT attempts: 24.9 per game, the most in the conference. Right now, teams are hitting 32.8% of those shots, right around the league average of 33.2%. In the Mankato game, you could see how Minot’s perimeter defense made Mankato “settle” for many 3s, and they missed almost all of them first half. But if a team isn’t as frigid as Mankato was, the 3>2 math could get hard for Minot to combat.
On offense, they’re hitting the 3 better than any NSIC team (39.4%) with Bohl & Jaxon Gunville leading the way. And they hit their FTs at a good clip (76.2%, 3rd in NSIC), they just have to earn more of them (15th in FTA/G). That may be the missing piece for this team, and the thing that poses issues for them tourney-time: there’s not another impactful drive-to-the-basket guy after Khari Broadway. He’s doing a nice job of that, but for the minutes he’s sitting there doesn’t seem to be much off-the-bounce verve there.
But for the first time ever, the Beavers have a great shot to make the national tournament. The dam is built on defensive intensity and hot long-range shooting, and if those continue these next 6 weeks, they could absolutely steal a conference crown and assert “MSU” supremacy in the NSIC.
TIER 1: Conference Title Contenders – it would count as a big surprise if one of these teams didn’t win the regular season title and/or make the national tournament.
#1 – Mankato – 1st in OFF, 7th in DEF, 1st in margin
Even as a Dragons fan, I’ve always held that Mankato’s been the far superior team this season. They are doing EVERYTHING well. Look at these team rankings within the conference:
- 1st – FG%; REB/G; AST/G; AST/TO (2nd in nation)
- 2nd – Def. FG%; 3PT%; Def. 3PT%; fouls/G; REB margin; TO margin; STL/G
- 3rd – Def. FTA/G; Off. REB/G; TO/G
And to me, the only reason they’re 7th in scoring defense is due to their pace, as they have the 2nd highest pace in the NSIC (72.4 possessions/G, only behind Concordia SP). With more possessions in a game, the other team is bound to get more points. The rest of Mankato’s defensive metrics are sound (DFG%, D3PT%, DFTA/G, forced TO/G, STL/G).
The brothers Willingham & Justin Eagins are all having their best seasons yet. Malik is orchestrating everything, getting to the line more, and getting in passing lanes, while Kyreese is hitting freaking everything (54.5% FG%, 4th in the NSIC). Both have cut down on TOs, too. And Eagins is such a critical piece, nailing all these open 3s (44.2%, 5th in the NSIC – min. 60 att.) that Malik’s drive-and-kicks generate. Elijah Hazekamp had really turned it on the last 6 games before Minot, and Dylan Peeters (before an apparent injury?) was still filling into whatever they needed him to do (19 REB against Concordia one night, 27 PTS against Duluth the next). The 3 guys off their bench know their roles and give them a super solid 8.
This Minot game did show they’re not invulnerable, though. Minot is a talented perimeter defense team who did a great job of walling off any dribble penetration into the lane. And if Peeters is gonna be out for a while (anyone have insight into that?), that makes me worry about their rebounding. Because while they are 1st in REB/G, they’re just 9th in def. REB% (74.6%), giving up a higher-than-average share of offensive rebounds to opponents.
Still, I felt like Mankato was able to shoot a fair amount of open 3s against Minot, they just missed them. That won’t happen often (again, 2nd in 3PT%), and they’ve won enough close games against good teams such as SMSU, Duluth, and Bemidji that gives me confidence in their ability to handle the stress of a national tournament.
#2 – MSUM – 4th in OFF, 6th in DEF, 4th in margin
The Dragons seem to have a refined sense of who they are and how they win games: win the possession battle & get to the free throw line. Those are the only major stat categories where they’re in the top 3 of the conference: 1st in TO/G (tied with Duluth, both 2nd in nation); 2nd in forced TOs/G; 1st in TO margin; 1st in FTA/G. Those are two really good things to be good at come tourney time. When the game slows down, each individual possession matters more, and if the Dragons are intentional about not having wasted possessions and earning FTs, that can help in those late-game situations.
But their recent nail-biter against SMSU and loss to Sioux Falls showed that if the Dragons slip up on that just a little bit, it could get them in trouble (only +1 in FTA vs SMSU & even in TOs with USF). This team really struggles with 3PT shooting (14th in 3PT% in NSIC), and the offense will get a little iso-heavy for my liking (14th in AST/G).
And I think the recent injury to Gabe Myren is a big blow. He was the fulcrum of their switch-everything defense, as Bergstraser was happy to have him end a possession on either a hard-driving guard or a low post brute; Myren would be cunning and/or stout either way. With that gone, teams may be able to get into the lane easier, or force the Dragons to fight through more screens. (Plus, MSUM has to go deeper into their bench now, which is not nearly as deep as the previous few seasons).
However, this also strikes me as a VERY well-coached team, as they’ve had 4 conference games where they’ve been down or tied at half and had a +9 or greater 2nd half scoring margin to secure the win (again, low turnovers and late-game FTs coming in clutch). Their players have well-defined roles and take turns on offense getting to their spots. A Jacob Beeninga toy-dribble to decide on a step-back 3 or drive-to-get-fouled; a Ja’Kair Sanchez or JaMir Price hesitation game of “Floater or Drive-To-Get-Fouled?”; a PNR dive with Dane Zimmer or PNR pop with Logan Kinsey. They run these plays so systematically, that it’s less vulnerable to the whims of one player having an off night. Their perimeter defense is also a hallmark, as they allow the least 3PT attempts/game (though that could slip a bit without Myren).
It's the same recipe that helped them win the last two conference tourneys. They’d likely be going up against a much tougher 1-seed this year, but there’s enough here that feels sturdier than if this team were reliant on the 3-point shot to win games.
#3 – Minot – 5th in OFF, 1st in DEF, 2nd in margin
I can’t remember a team that was so mediocre one year (11-17, 7-15), brought back almost the entire same roster with no exciting additions, and came out so strong the following year. A massive kudos to Matt Murken & his staff for turning this tanker around faster than Logan Roy (and if you get that reference, I love you).
The Beavers have done so through their defense, as they’re #1 in scoring defense in the NSIC. Michael Jok is a DPOY candidate, as he showed against Mankato: digging on drives and rotating out to contest open 3s on time (the long arms help). The quick feet of Ben Bohl and their other perimeter defenders helps a lot, too. And while they lack an interior presence (13th in NSIC in BLK/G), they do a great job of not fouling at the rim (2nd in allowed FTA/G) and not allowing many offensive rebounds.
But ironically, I felt like this Mankato game was illustrative of the only major concern I have defensively for Minot. The Beavers allow a lot of 3PT attempts: 24.9 per game, the most in the conference. Right now, teams are hitting 32.8% of those shots, right around the league average of 33.2%. In the Mankato game, you could see how Minot’s perimeter defense made Mankato “settle” for many 3s, and they missed almost all of them first half. But if a team isn’t as frigid as Mankato was, the 3>2 math could get hard for Minot to combat.
On offense, they’re hitting the 3 better than any NSIC team (39.4%) with Bohl & Jaxon Gunville leading the way. And they hit their FTs at a good clip (76.2%, 3rd in NSIC), they just have to earn more of them (15th in FTA/G). That may be the missing piece for this team, and the thing that poses issues for them tourney-time: there’s not another impactful drive-to-the-basket guy after Khari Broadway. He’s doing a nice job of that, but for the minutes he’s sitting there doesn’t seem to be much off-the-bounce verve there.
But for the first time ever, the Beavers have a great shot to make the national tournament. The dam is built on defensive intensity and hot long-range shooting, and if those continue these next 6 weeks, they could absolutely steal a conference crown and assert “MSU” supremacy in the NSIC.
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