NSIC "Transfer Value" 2025

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

With today being the official “opening” of the transfer portal, I thought it’d be fun (debatable) and interesting (we’ll see) to go through this thought exercise again…

Last year I ranked NSIC basketball non-seniors based on how much “Transfer Value” they had. This was a b̶l̶a̶t̶a̶n̶t̶ ̶r̶i̶p̶-̶o̶f̶f̶ spin-off of Bill Simmons’ old “trade value” columns where you factor in not just a player’s talent level, but also their salaries & age when considering, “Would you trade Guy A for Guy B?” If the answer is yes, then Guy B would be ranked higher than Guy A.

For the “Transfer Value” list, standing in for salaries & age is a college player’s remaining eligibility. So the question to be answered here would instead be, “Would you rather have Guy A for 1 year or Guy B for 2 years?” I think it’s an interesting way to answer the question “Which player is the most valuable on the transfer market, all things considered?”

And so, here’s my list after the 2024-25 season. A few points before we dive in…

• I targeted the list to just the “impact” guys (or could-someday-be-impact guys).
• I limited the list to guys we have seen play in this league. It’s hard to pin down how good a redshirting freshman will be when he’s just sitting there, and not all HS studs acclimate to the college game.
• Similar to how Simmons did it, I put players into groups according to what broad category they would fit in. In some cases, I might actually prefer a guy in a lower group to a guy placed just above him, but the categories make things a little more digestible.

Group G – One Last Ride: Solid Role Players
These guys may not have as high of ceilings as the other returning seniors, but they are certainly guys that can contribute to winning teams.
42. Ty Rogers – forward, UMary – 1 year left – 10.3 PTS, 41.5% FG, 70.0% FT, 3.9 REB
41. Andrew Stokes – forward, Crookston – 1 year left – 10.9 PTS, 51.8% FG, 79.8% FT, 4.6 REB
40. James Glenn – guard, Northern – 1 year left – 12.8 PTS, 38.8% FG, 35.1% 3PT, 3.8 AST, 1.8 STL
39. David Harmon – guard, Mankato – 1 year left – 6.0 PTS, 44.1% FG
38. Sam Hastreiter – forward, MSUM – 7.2 PTS, 42.2% FG, 42.2% 3PT, 4.1 REB
37. Mattie Thompson – forward, Duluth – 7.0 PTS, 48.3% FG, 4.0 REB
36. Mason Lund – forward, SMSU – 9.1 PTS, 52.1% FG, 42.6% 3PT, 5.9 REB

Group F – Solid Role Players w/ Years Left
These guys have shown enough that I’d want them on my team to fill a role, and if things go right could blossom into something more.
35. Kyle Ingwerson – forward, Sioux Falls – 2 years left – 11.0 PTS, 41.0% FG, 38.3% 3PT, 4.6 REB
34. Bennett Fried – forward, Augustana – 3 years left – 8.1 PTS, 58.1% FG, 5.4 REB
33. Steven Kramer – guard, SMSU – 2 years left – 9.8 PTS, 44.0% FG, 83.3% FT
32. JJ Ferrin – guard, Wayne – 2 years left – 12.6 PTS, 41.6% FG, 36.9% 3PT
31. John Pecarich – guard, Bemidji – 2 years left – 11.5 PTS, 49.1% FG, 42.4% 3PT
30. Tyler Mason – guard, Winona – 3 years left – 9.6 PTS, 42.1% FG, 37.6% 3PT
29. Will Opsahl – forward, Mankato – 3 years left – 7.7 PTS, 46.4% FG, 46.5% 3PT
28. Caden Hinker – forward, Augustana – 2 years left – (did not play in 24-25) 23-24 stats: 7.9 PTS, 51.6% FG, 4.9 REB
27. Mekhi Shaw – guard, SMSU – 2 years left – 7.9 PTS, 41.9% FG, 1.8 STL
26. Kole Hanson – guard, Duluth – 3 years left – 6.7 PTS, 41.1% FG, 34.4% 3PT
25. Shaun Wysocki – forward, MSUM – 3 years left – 7.6 PTS, 50.8% FG, 66.7% FT, 3.9 REB

Group E – Could Grow Into All-Conference Level
With varying degrees of certainty, these are the guys who’ve shown the potential to become an all-conference talent with an increased role (especially those two Augie youngsters).
24. Sam Rensch – guard, Augustana – 1 year left – 12.3 PTS, 38.2% FG, 37.0% 3PT, 4.8 REB, 1.5 STL
23. Tate Olson – forward, Bemidji – 1 year left – 11.8 PTS, 49.8% FG, 37.3% 3PT, 8.8 REB
22. Caden Kirkman – forward, Mankato – 2 years left – 9.9 PTS, 57.8% FG, 59.8% FT, 6.0 REB
21. Jeremiah Jones – guard, UMary – 2 years left – 11.9 PTS, 42.5% FG, 31.9% 3PT, 6.7 REB, 2.7 STL
20. Lucas Morgan – guard, St. Cloud – 2 years left – 11.4 PTS, 45.1% FG, 37.0% 3PT, 82.8% FT, 4.7 REB, 1.3 STL
19. Wyatt Hawks – forward, St. Cloud – 2 years left – 10.3 PTS, 58.6% FG, 69.0% FT, 7.5 REB, 1.1 BLK
18. Marcus Burks – guard, Northern – 3 years left – 11.1 PTS, 41.3% FG, 51.3% FT, 5.3 REB, 4.1 AST, 1.5 STL
17. Taylen Ashley – guard, Sioux Falls – 3 years left – 13.0 PTS, 41.4% FG, 37.5% 3PT, 3.0 AST
16. Tameron Ferguson – guard, Augustana – 3 years left – 10.2 PTS, 45.1% FG, 53.7% FT, 3.9 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.6 STL

Group D – One Last Ride: All-Conference Talent
A trio of returning seniors who all could’ve been All-Conference level this past year and should replicate that next year.
15. Sam West – forward, Minot – 1 year left – 9.9 PTS, 44.9% FG, 64.6% FT, 6.0 REB, 4.2 AST, 1.3 STL
14. Ayouba Berthe – guard, Minot – 1 year left – 13.1 PTS, 42.1% FG, 38.8% 3PT, 78.3% FT
13. Tanner Te Slaa – guard, Augustana – 1 year left – All-NSIC 2^nd Team; 13.6 PTS, 41.9% FG, 37.4% 3PT, 5.2 REB

Group C – Younger All-Conference Talent
A quartet of underclassmen who showed All-Conference talent and should be leading their teams the next 2+ years.
12. Nate Dahl – guard, St. Cloud – 2 years left – All-NSIC 2^nd Team; 11.9 PTS, 41.5% FG, 34.5% 3PT, 80.0% FT, 5.0 REB, 1.4 STL
11. Ben Kopetzki – guard, Concordia SP – 2 years left – 13.5 PTS, 45.1% FG, 40.6% 3PT, 85.4% FT, 3.4 AST
10. Caleb Siwek – guard, Duluth – 2 years left – 12.7 PTS, 43.8% FG, 41.6% 3PT, 3.9 REB
9. Matt Noll – forward, Wayne – 3 years left – All-NSIC 2^nd Team; 13.0 PTS, 53.5% FG, 63.1% FT, 4.4 REB, 1.3 STL

Group B – One Last Ride: Known Studs
The best-of-the-best of All-Conference juniors that could be the engines of a deep post-season run. (You could argue that CVDG is good enough to break into Group A even with just one year left.)
8. Jacob Jennissen – center, MSUM – 1 year left – All-NSIC 2^nd Team; 11.9 PTS, 63.3% FG, 70.7% FT, 8.3 REB
7. Logan Kinsey – forward, MSUM – 1 year left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 14.6 PTS, 48.8% FG, 37.7% 3PT, 70.6% FT, 5.3 REB
6. Jakob Braaten – guard, SMSU – 1 year left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 14.3 PTS, 53.2% FG, 80.2% FT, 5.6 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.8 STL
5. Caleb Van De Griend – center, Minot – 1 year left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 21.1 PTS, 70.2% FG, 81.5% FT, 13.1 REB, 1.1 BLK

Group A – “Oh God, Please Don’t Leave Us”
The four guys whose coaches are going to bed every night asking Jebus that this guy sticks around and remains a conference POTY talent for the duration of his eligibility.
4. Aeron Stevens – forward, SMSU – 2 years left – All-NSIC 2^nd Team; 13.9 PTS, 46.4% FG, 76.0% FT, 5.9 REB
3. Luke Winkel – guard, St. Cloud – 3 years left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 13.3 PTS, 40.3% FG, 38.1% 3PT, 80.4% FT, 3.9 AST, 1.4 STL
2. Luke Haertle – guard, Winona – 2 years left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 17.2 PTS, 44.5% FG, 28.9% 3PT, 72.6% FT, 6.8 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.7 STL
1. Carson Johnson – guard, MSUM – 3 years left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 19.8 PTS, 43.7% FG, 41.8% 3PT, 84.4% FT, 3.0 AST

So what do you think? Would you have another guy at the top? Which guys would you move up a group?

[Augieholic]

Is Carson Johnson in the portal yet?

Aeron Stevens isn't in Group A, I think the last stretch of the season exposed him. Now if Felon Stevens is released on us again, recidivism rates alone make him Group A material.

From an Augie perspective I would swap Bennett Fried and Sam Rensch. It pains me to say that as a founding resident of Rensch Island but it's time to be honest with ourselves about property values.

[Moorhead123]

Good list. Another good list would be the list of guys that transferred in the past and whether it appears (from the outside and with limited information) that such decision to transfer ended up being a good decision or not. My gut says that the overwhelming majority of the time the player would have been better off staying put.

[Stanger86]

Aeron Stevens isn't in Group A, I think the last stretch of the season exposed him. Now if Felon Stevens is released on us again, recidivism rates alone make him Group A material.

Honestly, I was thinking the same. I don't even know if Braaten should be in Group B.

[DapperDan]

Comparing years remaining isn’t a great metric as these guys can move again and many of them do.

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

Aeron Stevens isn't in Group A, I think the last stretch of the season exposed him. Now if Felon Stevens is released on us again, recidivism rates alone make him Group A material.

Call me Alan Dershowitz, cause I'm about to defend a Felon...

Yeah, the end of Stevens's season was NOT GOOD. But I still think he's shown the raw talent & production to be a favorite for All-NSIC 1st Team next year and co-lead a talented Mustang team on a run next year. He's still got good footwork & strength in the post, and expanded his offensive ability with a 3-point shot that you actually need to defend now (36% this year on 3 attempts per game, up from 28% on 1.8 attempts last year). If he remains at that clip (or even improves it), opposing bigs have to take that extra step out; Stevens's next move is to develop a pump-and-drive game. I'm betting on him doing that, but TBD. His defense is fine. And going down from 5.4 FTs/g in 23-24 to 4.2 this year is a marked difference, and one I'll be curious to monitor the trend next year.

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

From an Augie perspective I would swap Bennett Fried and Sam Rensch. It pains me to say that as a founding resident of Rensch Island but it's time to be honest with ourselves about property values.

I appreciate that perspective, as you've seen more of that team than I have, certainly. I think I just liked Rensch's last month of the season (15.5 PTS on 51.5% 3PT shooting), and thought that showed he could be a decent 3rd-option for Augie next year. But you may be right that Fried has a higher ceiling than whatever Rensch can do in one year.

[MrAugustana]

Good list. Another good list would be the list of guys that transferred in the past and whether it appears (from the outside and with limited information) that such decision to transfer ended up being a good decision or not. My gut says that the overwhelming majority of the time the player would have been better off staying put.

And if that specific thread ends up in a certain Carson Johnson’s email inbox from the account [email protected], so be it…

[Moorhead123]

And if that specific thread ends up in a certain Carson Johnson’s email inbox from the account [email protected], so be it…

Good idea.

As good as Johnson is, there is no guarantee a transfer to a mid major program would be a good move for him. He will have to weigh the real risks associated with such a move to being in a very good situation at Msum. I am confident that many players have made the move in the past and regretted their decision to do so. Hopefully, he chooses to stay on his path to becoming one of the all time great Dragons.

[MrMustang]

With today being the official “opening” of the transfer portal, I thought it’d be fun (debatable) and interesting (we’ll see) to go through this thought exercise again…

Last year I ranked NSIC basketball non-seniors based on how much “Transfer Value” they had. This was a b̶l̶a̶t̶a̶n̶t̶ ̶r̶i̶p̶-̶o̶f̶f̶ spin-off of Bill Simmons’ old “trade value” columns where you factor in not just a player’s talent level, but also their salaries & age when considering, “Would you trade Guy A for Guy B?” If the answer is yes, then Guy B would be ranked higher than Guy A.

For the “Transfer Value” list, standing in for salaries & age is a college player’s remaining eligibility. So the question to be answered here would instead be, “Would you rather have Guy A for 1 year or Guy B for 2 years?” I think it’s an interesting way to answer the question “Which player is the most valuable on the transfer market, all things considered?”

And so, here’s my list after the 2024-25 season. A few points before we dive in…

• I targeted the list to just the “impact” guys (or could-someday-be-impact guys).
• I limited the list to guys we have seen play in this league. It’s hard to pin down how good a redshirting freshman will be when he’s just sitting there, and not all HS studs acclimate to the college game.
• Similar to how Simmons did it, I put players into groups according to what broad category they would fit in. In some cases, I might actually prefer a guy in a lower group to a guy placed just above him, but the categories make things a little more digestible.

Group G – One Last Ride: Solid Role Players
These guys may not have as high of ceilings as the other returning seniors, but they are certainly guys that can contribute to winning teams.
42. Ty Rogers – forward, UMary – 1 year left – 10.3 PTS, 41.5% FG, 70.0% FT, 3.9 REB
41. Andrew Stokes – forward, Crookston – 1 year left – 10.9 PTS, 51.8% FG, 79.8% FT, 4.6 REB
40. James Glenn – guard, Northern – 1 year left – 12.8 PTS, 38.8% FG, 35.1% 3PT, 3.8 AST, 1.8 STL
39. David Harmon – guard, Mankato – 1 year left – 6.0 PTS, 44.1% FG
38. Sam Hastreiter – forward, MSUM – 7.2 PTS, 42.2% FG, 42.2% 3PT, 4.1 REB
37. Mattie Thompson – forward, Duluth – 7.0 PTS, 48.3% FG, 4.0 REB
36. Mason Lund – forward, SMSU – 9.1 PTS, 52.1% FG, 42.6% 3PT, 5.9 REB

Group F – Solid Role Players w/ Years Left
These guys have shown enough that I’d want them on my team to fill a role, and if things go right could blossom into something more.
35. Kyle Ingwerson – forward, Sioux Falls – 2 years left – 11.0 PTS, 41.0% FG, 38.3% 3PT, 4.6 REB
34. Bennett Fried – forward, Augustana – 3 years left – 8.1 PTS, 58.1% FG, 5.4 REB
33. Steven Kramer – guard, SMSU – 2 years left – 9.8 PTS, 44.0% FG, 83.3% FT
32. JJ Ferrin – guard, Wayne – 2 years left – 12.6 PTS, 41.6% FG, 36.9% 3PT
31. John Pecarich – guard, Bemidji – 2 years left – 11.5 PTS, 49.1% FG, 42.4% 3PT
30. Tyler Mason – guard, Winona – 3 years left – 9.6 PTS, 42.1% FG, 37.6% 3PT
29. Will Opsahl – forward, Mankato – 3 years left – 7.7 PTS, 46.4% FG, 46.5% 3PT
28. Caden Hinker – forward, Augustana – 2 years left – (did not play in 24-25) 23-24 stats: 7.9 PTS, 51.6% FG, 4.9 REB
27. Mekhi Shaw – guard, SMSU – 2 years left – 7.9 PTS, 41.9% FG, 1.8 STL
26. Kole Hanson – guard, Duluth – 3 years left – 6.7 PTS, 41.1% FG, 34.4% 3PT
25. Shaun Wysocki – forward, MSUM – 3 years left – 7.6 PTS, 50.8% FG, 66.7% FT, 3.9 REB

Group E – Could Grow Into All-Conference Level
With varying degrees of certainty, these are the guys who’ve shown the potential to become an all-conference talent with an increased role (especially those two Augie youngsters).
24. Sam Rensch – guard, Augustana – 1 year left – 12.3 PTS, 38.2% FG, 37.0% 3PT, 4.8 REB, 1.5 STL
23. Tate Olson – forward, Bemidji – 1 year left – 11.8 PTS, 49.8% FG, 37.3% 3PT, 8.8 REB
22. Caden Kirkman – forward, Mankato – 2 years left – 9.9 PTS, 57.8% FG, 59.8% FT, 6.0 REB
21. Jeremiah Jones – guard, UMary – 2 years left – 11.9 PTS, 42.5% FG, 31.9% 3PT, 6.7 REB, 2.7 STL
20. Lucas Morgan – guard, St. Cloud – 2 years left – 11.4 PTS, 45.1% FG, 37.0% 3PT, 82.8% FT, 4.7 REB, 1.3 STL
19. Wyatt Hawks – forward, St. Cloud – 2 years left – 10.3 PTS, 58.6% FG, 69.0% FT, 7.5 REB, 1.1 BLK
18. Marcus Burks – guard, Northern – 3 years left – 11.1 PTS, 41.3% FG, 51.3% FT, 5.3 REB, 4.1 AST, 1.5 STL
17. Taylen Ashley – guard, Sioux Falls – 3 years left – 13.0 PTS, 41.4% FG, 37.5% 3PT, 3.0 AST
16. Tameron Ferguson – guard, Augustana – 3 years left – 10.2 PTS, 45.1% FG, 53.7% FT, 3.9 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.6 STL

Group D – One Last Ride: All-Conference Talent
A trio of returning seniors who all could’ve been All-Conference level this past year and should replicate that next year.
15. Sam West – forward, Minot – 1 year left – 9.9 PTS, 44.9% FG, 64.6% FT, 6.0 REB, 4.2 AST, 1.3 STL
14. Ayouba Berthe – guard, Minot – 1 year left – 13.1 PTS, 42.1% FG, 38.8% 3PT, 78.3% FT
13. Tanner Te Slaa – guard, Augustana – 1 year left – All-NSIC 2^nd Team; 13.6 PTS, 41.9% FG, 37.4% 3PT, 5.2 REB

Group C – Younger All-Conference Talent
A quartet of underclassmen who showed All-Conference talent and should be leading their teams the next 2+ years.
12. Nate Dahl – guard, St. Cloud – 2 years left – All-NSIC 2^nd Team; 11.9 PTS, 41.5% FG, 34.5% 3PT, 80.0% FT, 5.0 REB, 1.4 STL
11. Ben Kopetzki – guard, Concordia SP – 2 years left – 13.5 PTS, 45.1% FG, 40.6% 3PT, 85.4% FT, 3.4 AST
10. Caleb Siwek – guard, Duluth – 2 years left – 12.7 PTS, 43.8% FG, 41.6% 3PT, 3.9 REB
9. Matt Noll – forward, Wayne – 3 years left – All-NSIC 2^nd Team; 13.0 PTS, 53.5% FG, 63.1% FT, 4.4 REB, 1.3 STL

Group B – One Last Ride: Known Studs
The best-of-the-best of All-Conference juniors that could be the engines of a deep post-season run. (You could argue that CVDG is good enough to break into Group A even with just one year left.)
8. Jacob Jennissen – center, MSUM – 1 year left – All-NSIC 2^nd Team; 11.9 PTS, 63.3% FG, 70.7% FT, 8.3 REB
7. Logan Kinsey – forward, MSUM – 1 year left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 14.6 PTS, 48.8% FG, 37.7% 3PT, 70.6% FT, 5.3 REB
6. Jakob Braaten – guard, SMSU – 1 year left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 14.3 PTS, 53.2% FG, 80.2% FT, 5.6 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.8 STL
5. Caleb Van De Griend – center, Minot – 1 year left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 21.1 PTS, 70.2% FG, 81.5% FT, 13.1 REB, 1.1 BLK

Group A – “Oh God, Please Don’t Leave Us”
The four guys whose coaches are going to bed every night asking Jebus that this guy sticks around and remains a conference POTY talent for the duration of his eligibility.
4. Aeron Stevens – forward, SMSU – 2 years left – All-NSIC 2^nd Team; 13.9 PTS, 46.4% FG, 76.0% FT, 5.9 REB
3. Luke Winkel – guard, St. Cloud – 3 years left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 13.3 PTS, 40.3% FG, 38.1% 3PT, 80.4% FT, 3.9 AST, 1.4 STL
2. Luke Haertle – guard, Winona – 2 years left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 17.2 PTS, 44.5% FG, 28.9% 3PT, 72.6% FT, 6.8 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.7 STL
1. Carson Johnson – guard, MSUM – 3 years left – All-NSIC 1^st Team; 19.8 PTS, 43.7% FG, 41.8% 3PT, 84.4% FT, 3.0 AST

So what do you think? Would you have another guy at the top? Which guys would you move up a group?

Fun list and well done. I actually think the Mustangs can't afford to lose Braaten more than Stevens. To be fair I think Stevens was pretty much hurt and banged up all year so if he gets healthy that would be pretty good.

[MrMustang]

Call me Alan Dershowitz, cause I'm about to defend a Felon...

Yeah, the end of Stevens's season was NOT GOOD. But I still think he's shown the raw talent & production to be a favorite for All-NSIC 1st Team next year and co-lead a talented Mustang team on a run next year. He's still got good footwork & strength in the post, and expanded his offensive ability with a 3-point shot that you actually need to defend now (36% this year on 3 attempts per game, up from 28% on 1.8 attempts last year). If he remains at that clip (or even improves it), opposing bigs have to take that extra step out; Stevens's next move is to develop a pump-and-drive game. I'm betting on him doing that, but TBD. His defense is fine. And going down from 5.4 FTs/g in 23-24 to 4.2 this year is a marked difference, and one I'll be curious to monitor the trend next year.

all fair. Like I said, he was hurt and then played softer as a result vs the freshmen year where he attacked and went into people. Big year coming up.

[Stanger86]

Call me Alan Dershowitz, cause I'm about to defend a Felon...

Yeah, the end of Stevens's season was NOT GOOD. But I still think he's shown the raw talent & production to be a favorite for All-NSIC 1st Team next year and co-lead a talented Mustang team on a run next year. He's still got good footwork & strength in the post, and expanded his offensive ability with a 3-point shot that you actually need to defend now (36% this year on 3 attempts per game, up from 28% on 1.8 attempts last year). If he remains at that clip (or even improves it), opposing bigs have to take that extra step out; Stevens's next move is to develop a pump-and-drive game. I'm betting on him doing that, but TBD. His defense is fine. And going down from 5.4 FTs/g in 23-24 to 4.2 this year is a marked difference, and one I'll be curious to monitor the trend next year.

I'll be honest, I was shocked when I looked at his career stats and saw this year his numbers went up across the board.

[vikingfaithful]

I would think Minot's Caleb Van De Griend should be in group A

[Purple Mav Man]

I would think Minot's Caleb Van De Griend should be in group A

Have to agree. I’d he wasn’t there, that entire team is different. On both ends of the court. Even though in this exercise, he has less value due to only one year left, he would be one of the top 3 blows to a team in the conference if he were to leave.

Nice work Mark Emmert's Burner

[Mark Emmert's Burner]

Have to agree. I’d he wasn’t there, that entire team is different. On both ends of the court. Even though in this exercise, he has less value due to only one year left, he would be one of the top 3 blows to a team in the conference if he were to leave.

Nice work Mark Emmert's Burner

Yeah, he was definitely the one I waffled on moving up a group the most. If this were a simple ranking of the best players, he'd be #1 or #2 for sure. I slotted him Group B for this thought exercise because of his remaining eligibility, but you could argue one year of him is still worth more than 2 of Stevens or 3 of Winkel. He's that good & important to Minot.