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First Regional Rankings (2/19)


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  • First Regional Rankings (2/19)

    Rank School Overall DII Record In-Region Record
    1 Indiana (Pennsylvania) 20-2 20-2
    2 Shippensburg 19-5 19-5
    3 West Liberty 20-4 20-3
    4 Fairmont State 17-5 17-5
    5 Charleston (West Virginia) 19-5 19-5
    6 Virginia State 19-7 19-7
    7 West Virginia State 16-6 16-6
    8 Pittsburg-Johnstown 16-6 16-6
    9 Bowie State 16-10 16-10
    10 Johnson C. Smith 17-7 17-7
    Rank School Overall DII Record In-Region Record
    1 Northwest Missouri State 21-1 20-1
    2 Southeastern Oklahoma State 17-6 16-5
    3 Missouri Southern State 16-5 16-4
    4 Southern Nazarene 18-7 18-7
    5 Northern State 20-6 20-6
    6 Minnesota Duluth 19-7 18-7
    7 Rogers State 17-5 17-5
    8 Oklahoma Baptist 15-8 15-8
    9 Sioux Falls 19-6 19-6
    10 Henderson State 15-7 15-7
    Rank School Overall DII Record In-Region Record
    1 Bridgeport 20-2 20-2
    2 St. Thomas Aquinas 19-4 19-3
    3 Thomas Jefferson University 22-2 22-2
    4 Le Moyne 18-7 16-6
    5 Saint Anselm 15-8 15-8
    6 Stonehill 15-10 14-9
    7 Daemen 21-6 18-5
    8 Dominican (New York) 19-5 18-4
    9 Franklin Pierce 14-8 14-8
    10 Adelphi 18-7 18-7
    Rank School Overall DII Record In-Region Record
    1 UIndy 18-5 17-5
    2 Truman 17-7 17-7
    3 Bellarmine 16-6 16-6
    4 Ferris State 20-5 17-5
    5 Grand Valley State 18-5 18-5
    6 Missouri-St. Louis 15-5 15-5
    7 Southern Indiana 18-5 18-5
    8 Michigan Tech 15-8 13-8
    9 Davenport 16-8 15-8
    10 Findlay 16-6 15-6
    Rank School Overall DII Record In-Region Record
    1 Florida Southern 23-2 19-2
    2 Nova Southeastern 17-3 16-3
    3 Lee 16-5 16-5
    4 Valdosta State 18-3 18-3
    5 Palm Beach Atlantic 17-6 16-6
    6 West Alabama 16-6 16-6
    7 Barry 12-7 12-7
    8 Embry-Riddle (Florida) 14-9 14-9
    9 Alabama Huntsville 18-5 18-5
    10 Miles 16-3 16-3
    Rank School Overall DII Record In-Region Record
    1 West Texas A&M 22-1 20-1
    2 St. Edward's 19-2 19-2
    3 Dixie State 21-4 20-4
    4 Black Hills State 17-6 17-6
    5 Texas A&M-Kingsville 17-6 17-4
    6 Angelo State 15-6 13-6
    7 Colorado School of Mines 18-8 18-8
    8 Dallas Baptist University 14-7 14-7
    9 Lubbock Christian 12-8 12-8
    10 Westminster (Utah) 15-9 15-8
    Rank School Overall DII Record In-Region Record
    1 Lincoln Memorial 23-1 23-0
    2 UNC Pembroke 19-5 19-5
    3 Queens (North Carolina) 18-6 18-6
    4 Catawba 18-6 18-6
    5 Augusta University 17-7 17-7
    6 Lander 17-7 17-7
    7 King (Tennessee) 17-6 17-6
    8 South Carolina Aiken 17-9 17-7
    9 Southern Wesleyan 15-10 15-10
    10 Tusculum 16-10 16-10
    Rank School Overall DII Record In-Region Record
    1 UC San Diego 24-1 24-1
    2 Azusa Pacific 21-3 21-3
    3 Cal Poly Pomona 17-5 16-5
    4 Chico State 17-6 17-6
    5 Cal State San Bernardino 18-5 17-5
    6 Seattle Pacific 18-5 18-5
    7 Point Loma 17-6 16-6
    8 Western Oregon 16-6 16-6
    9 Western Washington 13-9 13-9
    10 Concordia (California) 18-7 16-6

  • #2
    My reactions to the rankings (as compared to my predictions):


    The top eight is the same as mine, except that I have Fairmont State ahead of West Liberty. WLU's head-to-head win makes the committee's order unsurprising. FSU will have a chance to presumably pass the Hilltoppers with a win on Sunday.

    It doesn't surprise me that the committee left out California, with their lack of good wins. However, I didn't expect to see Bowie State as the team in instead. On further reflection, their #9 regional RPI should've put them on my radar. The CIAA's top four teams (the three ranked teams plus Fayetteville State) all split with each other, so the only way any are distinguishable is through non-conference results. Virginia State's win over Shippensburg has them leading the pack in that regard. Bowie State, unlike Johnson C. Smith and Fayetteville State, actually played non-conference games against top-10 teams, but lost both such games to Shippensburg and Fairmont State. It also doesn't hurt that Bowie beat Cal.


    The only different from my top 10 is the order of Minnesota–Duluth and Rogers State. My guess is that UMD's two wins over higher-ranked teams (to RSU's one) carried the day.


    This is the region where my rankings least resemble the committee's.

    In my write-up for my predictions, I expressed uncertainty about how the NE10 teams would be ranked relative to the rest, given the conference's dominance in OOC games. And so it happened that the three NE10 teams I had sixth through eighth, the committee had fourth through sixth. Given how the committee treated the conference last year, that's not surprising. Similarly, the committee included a fifth NE10 team rather than a third CACC. This also trickles down into the relative order of Daemen and Dominican.

    I'm a little baffled as to how the committee ranked the top three. St. Thomas Aquinas beat Jefferson, it's true, but by the same token Jefferson beat Bridgeport. (And, to complete the circle, Bridgeport beat St. Thomas Aquinas, but STAC has a chance at revenge next week.) I suppose with the NE10 teams ranked as the committee did, STAC's win over Stonehill suddenly increases in value.


    It appears the committee ranked the jumble from second through fifth largely on how they fared against each other. Truman is the only one with two wins against the other four, and UMSL is the only one with zero.

    Apparently Davenport's win over Truman was offset by Michigan Tech's head-to-head win. The Panthers have a chance for revenge on Thursday.

    Since these rankings are using data from before Walsh's loss to Malone, I'm a little surprised that Findlay is in and Walsh isn't. Walsh has a win over UMSL, whereas Findlay is 0-2 against the top nine. Perhaps Findlay's win over St. Thomas Aquinas (#2 in the East) gave the Oilers the edge. Regardless, neither is getting in without winning the GMAC tournament.


    Lee's win over Valdosta State on December 17 – since which game the Blazers haven't lost – gives the Flames the #3 spot.

    Looking at the 5-9 spots, the committee seems to consistently favor the SSC over the GSC. That's the only way I can make sense of this ordering,

    Miles' placement removes all doubt of the SIAC being a one-bid conference. It might be further evidence of the committee using conference strength in the rankings.

    South Central

    I mentioned that the only uncertainty in my rankings for this region were the ordering of Angelo State and Texas A&M Kingsville, and the #10 spot. Those turned out to be the two things I got wrong. It'll be cleared up when they meet on Thursday, but I'm a little surprised the committee ranked TAMUK higher than ASU, given the Javelinas' lack of good wins.

    As for the #10 spot, this is basically the Atlantic Region all over again: a team with zero ranked wins is left out in favor of a team I didn't even consider. Only this time, that team doesn't have a high RPI or anything of that sort. The main thing Westminster has going for them is a 2-1 record against the top nine.


    The only difference from my predictions is Tusculum's position. I understand that USC Aiken has a high RPI (aided by two of their losses being out of region), but I'm not sure the rationale for putting Tusculum behind Southern Wesleyan. SWU has a better record against the top nine, but Tusculum has played six games against the top four, winning one.


    I stated earlier in the similar case of Walsh that Monday's games aren't included in these rankings. I'm pretty sure that's true, given that they're not included in the stat PDFs. But Chaminade is another team whose omission from the rankings would seem to make more sense if Monday's loss were considered. On the other hand, Western Washington has a better RPI, which is very important except when it isn't. Concordia (CA)'s position makes sense with WWU in, as the Eagles have a sweep of Chaminade and a loss to the Vikings.

    The top seven are the exact same as my prediction.


    • #3
      The easiest part is "getting" the top 8 teams. The part that's most difficult is determining what order the they should be in. Seems like you could get almost as close by simply stacking each regions teams by W/L.

      Now getting 9 and 10 right were there are a lot of teams with the same record, that's somthing.
      Last edited by boatcapt; 02-21-2020, 07:15 AM.