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  • #61
    I was going to calculate the possible ranges of outcomes for the GLVC regular season, but being that there are 16 games left and 8 teams are able to cross "brackets" for the PRS, there are WAY too many combinations to crunch. So instead, here's my best attempt at a summary. No promises that I didn't miss any scenarios.

    Teams that are locks:
    UMSL: 1-4 (even though they have the highest range, more often than not they can't take #1)
    UIndy: 1-6 (crazy combination of upsets to land 5-6, most likely 1-4 range)
    Truman: 1-6 (this is wide open)
    USI: 1-6 (same note as UIndy)
    Bellarmine: 1-6 (it took some strange scenarios to get BU to #2 and even worse for #1. Most likely 4-6 range.)
    Rockhurst: 4-8

    Teams that are fighting for the last two spots:
    Southwest Baptist: 5-9
    McKendree: 7-10
    Drury: 7-10
    Lewis: 8-11 (verrrry slim chance for #8. Only a couple combinations I could find)

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    • #62
      Before the last set of games, I wanted to see who you all thought were the front runners for the big GLVC all-conference awards.

      My predictions-
      Player of the Year: Brodric Thomas, TSU. #2 in the league in scoring, #6 in rebounding, #6 in assists and a candidate for all-defensive team by ranking 2nd in the league in steals.

      Freshman of the Year: This might be one of the weakest freshmen classes in GLVC MBB history. By looking at stats alone, I would lean Parker Long from Maryville. Can a major league winner come from a 1-win team? This is probably the award for it.

      Coach of the Year: Jeff Horner, TSU. Obviously there's a case to be made for every coach up at the top: what a great year by UMSL and Sundvold; UIndy is the top team in the region, and they've played well under Gouard; USI - what a year to rebound the way they have under Watson after losing what they did last year and the injuries early; both Hesser at DU and Sheehy at SBU have done a lot to be impressive this year. But to me, this gets the sentimental vote. Coach Horner, undergoing chemo treatments even through the first couple weeks of the season (when TSU picked up a couple road regional losses) and fighting through to lead the team to (what could be) a regular season title would be quite the story.

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      • #63
        Originally posted by TSU_Mike59 View Post
        Before the last set of games, I wanted to see who you all thought were the front runners for the big GLVC all-conference awards.

        My predictions-
        Player of the Year: Brodric Thomas, TSU. #2 in the league in scoring, #6 in rebounding, #6 in assists and a candidate for all-defensive team by ranking 2nd in the league in steals.

        Freshman of the Year: This might be one of the weakest freshmen classes in GLVC MBB history. By looking at stats alone, I would lean Parker Long from Maryville. Can a major league winner come from a 1-win team? This is probably the award for it.

        Coach of the Year: Jeff Horner, TSU. Obviously there's a case to be made for every coach up at the top: what a great year by UMSL and Sundvold; UIndy is the top team in the region, and they've played well under Gouard; USI - what a year to rebound the way they have under Watson after losing what they did last year and the injuries early; both Hesser at DU and Sheehy at SBU have done a lot to be impressive this year. But to me, this gets the sentimental vote. Coach Horner, undergoing chemo treatments even through the first couple weeks of the season (when TSU picked up a couple road regional losses) and fighting through to lead the team to (what could be) a regular season title would be quite the story.
        I agree with you on POY and COY. I would give Hardeman at Lindenwood on honorable mention. Impossible situation and managed to field a competitive team. I don't know about freshman of the year.

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        • #64
          I like Garrison, Thomas or Rose for POY.

          If Watson wins the next two, I would pick him for COY. If not, I like Hesser. His very green team lost to a D3 early, now are finishing strong (as usual) by beating Jewell AND Rockhurst on the road (Hey, Bell and SBU didn't) and thumped Truman at home.

          The Women's COY should be Molly Miller. She has a defensive system that has propelled the Lady Panthers to 55 straight conference wins and reminding many of Nolan Richardson's "40 minutes of hell".

          Hailey Diestelkamp should win the Women's POY. She scores inside, outside, off the dribble, alley-oops, and is a great team player. Leading the league in steals, she can lock down guard all 5 positions including big posts. She also pressures point guards full court. Most importantly, her team is 70 and 2 in conference games she has started.
          Last edited by crazznewt; 02-26-2020, 01:03 PM.

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          • #65
            Originally posted by crazznewt View Post
            I like Garrison, Thomas or Rose for POY.

            If Watson wins the next two, I would pick him for COY. If not, I like Hesser. His very green team lost to a D3 early, now are finishing strong (as usual) by beating Jewell AND Rockhurst on the road (Hey, Bell and SBU didn't) and thumped Truman at home.

            The Women's COY should be Molly Miller. She has a defensive system that has propelled the Lady Panthers to 55 straight conference wins and reminding many of Nolan Richardson's "40 minutes of hell".

            Hailey Diestelkamp should win the Women's POY. She scores inside, outside, off the dribble, alley-oops, and is a great team player. Leading the league in steals, she can lock down guard all 5 positions including big posts. She also pressures point guards full court. Most importantly, her team is 70 and 2 in conference games she has started.
            Sorry Newt the GLVC just ain't goin to give the COY to Hesser. The man dominated the conference for 2 years in a row and they didn't give it to him then, doubt they will give it to him this year, especially with the sentimental story of the TSU coach. I do think Garrison and Thomas will be a close call on POY. Garrison will get it now, unless TSU wins the regular season title.

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            • #66
              Originally posted by KnightStalker View Post

              Sorry Newt the GLVC just ain't goin to give the COY to Hesser. The man dominated the conference for 2 years in a row and they didn't give it to him then, doubt they will give it to him this year, especially with the sentimental story of the TSU coach. I do think Garrison and Thomas will be a close call on POY. Garrison will get it now, unless TSU wins the regular season title.
              I agree. I just thought I would put my 50 cents in (inflation).

              Comment


              • #67
                Garrison has been more efficient than Thomas - he has a higher FG%, higher 3FG%, and a higher FT%. He also has a significantly higher assist to turnover ratio. Plus, Garrison has less help.

                True story - the year we won the National Championship, Hesser coached for weeks with pneumonia. He was hospitalized in Quincy for several days after our game there and missed the next game at UIS. The pneumonia had turned septic and he was seriously within days or even hours of death had he not gotten medical treatment when he did. Point being, that year he won the conference, had the best team in the country, won national COY, AND coached through a near brush with death and still didn’t get the GLVC COY.

                Also, Knightmoves my man, you need your basketball credentials revoked. Understand that Lindenwood’s coach had a tough situation this year, but no coach whose team gives up 51% defensive FG should be anywhere near a COY award. 51%!!

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by HoosierDaddy View Post
                  Re: GLVC Season Chat

                  Its all about the BUDGETS. Those schools along with William Jewell need to see if its the most cost effective and if they want to compete in that region for their sports.

                  GLVC needs to look into Marian University in Indianapolis as someone to bring into D2, they are very good in most sports, maybe even try to add Indiana Wesleyan with them. Both schools are just as good as Davenport was when they went into D2.
                  Indiana Wesleyan and Marian U are like night and day. Wesleyan trying to do it right trying to get high character kids and not on a big budget and Marian getting their dominance by taking character issues that nobody wants plus all the NCAA nonacademic qualifiers that no one can enroll. This been going on at least with football for years but not sure about BBall. Not a Scott Heady fan at all (Marian HBBCoach) so don't follow them at all. But don't think the GLVC wants the current Marian Admin.

                  One of the biggest conversations going on in Indy last December was how the Marian Football DBs carried on during the NAIA Championship game and a big talent team imploded in the final game. Do admit I like watching what they assemble for a football team each year. And it seems their pockets run deep $$.

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Here are the possible ranges of points for GLVC. The only "Lock" is that Maryville is in last place. Only three teams are able to cross the "brackets" of 25/50/75: Indy, McK, and S&T. Their outcomes will affect everybody differently. I ran all 8 combinations of those games against all 16 teams with winning or losing to determine max/min possible points.

                    MISSOURI-ST. LOUIS 4.175-3.775
                    INDIANAPOLIS 4.075-3.75
                    BELLARMINE 3.95-3.75
                    TRUMAN STATE 3.95-3.775
                    SOUTHERN INDIANA 3.975-3.75
                    ROCKHURST 3.8-3.475
                    SOUTHWEST BAPTIST 3.65-3.3
                    DRURY 3.575-3.275
                    MCKENDREE 3.375-3.05
                    LEWIS 3.1-2.8
                    ILLINOIS SPRINGFIELD 3.05-2.625
                    QUINCY 2.8-2.525
                    WILLIAM JEWELL 2.675-2.375
                    LINDENWOOD 2.525-2.25
                    MISSOURI S&T 2.425-2.15
                    MARYVILLE 2-1.7


                    Possible rankings:
                    1. UMSL, UIndy, Truman, USI
                    2. UMSL, UIndy, Truman, USI, Bellarmine
                    3. UMSL, UIndy, Truman, USI, Bellarmine
                    4. UMSL, UIndy, Truman, USI, Bellarmine
                    5. UIndy, Truman, USI, Bellarmine
                    6. Rockhurst, SBU, Drury
                    7. Rockhurst, SBU, Drury
                    8. SBU, Drury, McKendree
                    9. Drury, McKendree
                    10. Lewis, UIS
                    11. Lewis, UIS, Quincy
                    12. UIS, Quincy, WJ
                    13. QU, WJ, Lindenwood
                    14. WJ, Lindenwood, S&T
                    15. Lindenwood, S&T
                    16. Maryville

                    I know somebody will be wondering, "why can't BU reach #1?"
                    Their best possible score can only happen if UIndy and S&T win while McKendree loses (Bellarmine beats McK)...this still puts them behind UIndy.

                    So, for the #1 seeds, here are the possibilities:

                    UMSL: If UMSL wins (home against Springfield), they've locked #1, regardless of any other games.
                    UIndy: If UMSL loses and UIndy wins, they've locked #1 regardless of any other games.

                    Truman owns a tiebreaker over USI with the road win at Bellarmine, so:

                    Truman: If UMSL and UIndy lose and Truman wins, Truman gets #1
                    USI: If UMSL, UIndy, and Truman all lose, USI gets #1. This is highly unlikely because Truman is playing S&T and is almost guaranteed the win.

                    Based on Massey's predictions and a little bit of math, the chance of getting the #1 seed is:
                    UMSL: 89.0%
                    Truman: 5.20%
                    UIndy: 4.95%
                    USI: 0.85%

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Looking forward to the GLVC tournament starting this week in Edwardsville! Right in my backyard, I’m hoping to get over and take a look at the Truman games on Friday.

                      Here’s the first round schedule for Thursday and Friday.

                      Thursday, March 5:
                      W QF - 12 pm - #2 Southern Indiana vs. #7 Bellarmine
                      W QF - 2:30 pm - #1 Drury vs. #8 Maryville
                      M QF - 6 pm - #1 Missouri-St. Louis vs. #8 Drury
                      M QF - 8:30 pm - #2 Indianapolis vs. #7 Southwest Baptist

                      Friday, March 6:
                      W QF - 12 pm - #3 Lewis vs. #6 Indianpolis
                      W QF - 2:30 pm - #4 Truman vs. #5 Lindenwood
                      M QF - 6 pm - #3 Truman vs. #6 Rockhurst
                      M QF - 8:30 pm - #4 Southern Indiana vs. #5 Bellarmine

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                      • #71
                        Predictions by Massey

                        Round 1:
                        #1 Missouri-St. Louis 72 vs. #8 Drury 68 (63% - 37%)
                        #2 Indianapolis 82 vs. #7 Southwest Baptist 74 (78% - 22%)
                        #3 Truman 72 vs. #6 Rockhurst 65 (74% - 26%)
                        #4 Southern Indiana 70 vs. #5 Bellarmine 73 (40% - 60%)

                        Round 2:
                        #1 Missouri-St. Louis 65 vs. #5 Bellarmine 66 (50% - 50%)
                        #2 Indianapolis 76 vs. #3 Truman 75 (55% - 45%)

                        Championship:
                        #2 Indianapolis 76 vs. Bellarmine 75 (52% - 48%)

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          This is certainly not the 1st round game that USI fans would like to see. Bellarmine, despite struggling several times this season against lower opponents, seems to be a terrible matchup for USI. Can the Eagles do like last year and pull together last minute to run through the post-season?

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