Massey's Playoff Projections

[Fan_the_Flame]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Uhh, you have NW confused with those nice weather pussies from the south?

All that bad weather messes with our southern SPEED--->>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

:laugh:

[JakeTAMUC]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Im thinking he had Commerce going pretty far but I dont remember.

Cool thought and I'll hold onto this at the end of the playoffs and see how he did.

I cant find an archive of Massey predictions, but he did have Commerce ranked #1 overall, #1 in offense and #2 in defense last year, so you are probably on point.

[KleShreen]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

I cant find an archive of Massey predictions, but he did have Commerce ranked #1 overall, #1 in offense and #2 in defense last year, so you are probably on point.

I found the 2017 "bracket" page, but it doesn't have the ranking on it anymore like the 2018 one does. I'm guessing they go away after so long with no activity: https://www.masseyratings.com/tourn?t=888

[canadarican]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

All that bad weather messes with our southern SPEED--->>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

:laugh:

Ha! Don't get me started. Nobody will ever convince me that if Grand Valley had to come to Carson-Newman in 09 that we wouldn't have won. But instead a team full of fellas that had never even seen snow had to go to Lubbers. :laugh:

[EveryCatAWildman]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Massey has some weirdness with D2 football that makes it hard to take serious in this area

if you just sort by some of the categories you'll scratch your head; sort by Home Field Advantage and all 11 of the RMAC teams are the top 11 teams
sort by Strength of Schedule and the first 10 are all MIAA teams which leads to 8 teams in the MIAA in Massey top 25 overall.

[TarletonStateTexan]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Just thought I'd share this. Looked it up today.

First Round
#5 Hillsdale def. #4 Kutztown, 31-28.
#2 LIU Post def. #7 Slippery Rock, 28-24.
#3 West Chester def. #6 New Haven, 31-14.

#5 West Alabama def. #4 Bowie State, 31-14.
#2 West Georgia def. #7 Wingate, 34-16.
#3 Lenoir-Rhyne def. #6 Florida Tech, 35-28.

#5 Fort Hays def. #4 Indianapolis, 24-17.
#2 Ferris State def. #7 Harding, 30-23.
#6 Northwest Missouri def. #3 Grand Valley, 28-20.

#4 Colorado Mines def. #5 CSU Pueblo, 31-28.
#2 Tarleton State def. #7 Azusa Pacific, 41-21.
#3 Minnesota-Duluth def. #6 Texas A&M Commerce, 26-24.

Second Round
#5 Hillsdale def. #1 Notre Dame, 27-20.
#3 West Chester def. #2 LIU Post, 21-18.

#1 Valdosta State def. #5 West Alabama, 41-21.
#2 West Georiga def. #3 Lenoir-Rhyne, 35-28.

#5 Fort Hays def. #1 Ouachita Baptist, 20-17.
#6 Northwest Missouri def. #2 Ferris State, 31-24.

#4 Colorado Mines def. #1 Minnesota State, 38-37.
#2 Tarleton State def. #3 Minnesota-Duluth, 37-28.

Quarterfinals
#3 West Chester def. #5 Hillsdale, 27-20.
#1 Valdosta State def. #2 West Georgia, 42-30.
#6 Northwest Missouri def. #5 Fort Hays, 23-17.
#2 Tarleton State def. #4 Colorado Mines, 42-37.

Semifinals-Teams reseeded based on Coaches Poll Rankings
#1 Valdosta State def. #4 Northwest Missouri, 35-34.
#2 Tarleton State def. #3 West Chester, 35-26.

Championship
#1 Valdosta State def. #2 Tarleton State, 44-38.

According to Massey's Projections of each game, Valdosta State wins the 2018 NCAA Division II National Championship.

Tarleton State is a mere 2 hrs from McKinney, site of the National Championship game. If the Texans advance to the big game, expect a huge turnout of students, alumni and fans. It will be like homefield advantage for the Purple & White!

[Matt Witwicki]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Massey has some weirdness with D2 football that makes it hard to take serious in this area

if you just sort by some of the categories you'll scratch your head; sort by Home Field Advantage and all 11 of the RMAC teams are the top 11 teams
sort by Strength of Schedule and the first 10 are all MIAA teams which leads to 8 teams in the MIAA in Massey top 25 overall.

Yes....Massey is crazy in love with the MIAA this year. Great conference....but I'm probably not picking non-playoff squads from the MIAA to thump Mankato and Duluth, etc. Outside the MIAA thing, I think Massey is pretty good.

[EveryCatAWildman]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Yes....Massey is crazy in love with the MIAA this year. Great conference....but I'm probably not picking non-playoff squads from the MIAA to thump Mankato and Duluth, etc. Outside the MIAA thing, I think Massey is pretty good.

I think it has to do with using some data based on previous season, since MIAA has a silo schedule. Well, last year post season the MIAA sent 6 teams and they faced Ferris, Duluth, Tarleton, Angelo, Ashland, and Ark Tech going 4-2 against them and those 6 teams are a combined 47-16 this year with three of them being undefeated.

[dvaara]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

I think it has to do with using some data based on previous season, since MIAA has a silo schedule. Well, last year post season the MIAA sent 6 teams and they faced Ferris, Duluth, Tarleton, Angelo, Ashland, and Ark Tech going 4-2 against them and those 6 teams are a combined 47-16 this year with three of them being undefeated.

but were 0-2 in the playoffs for likely the first time in a very long time...Massey picks a conference he's high on and ranks all of their teams high...then the next year it's a different conference... doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason

[Ian Carlson]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

but were 0-2 in the playoffs for likely the first time in a very long time...Massey picks a conference he's high on and ranks all of their teams high...then the next year it's a different conference... doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason

He doesn't "pick" anything. All he does is input data. The silo schedule compromises that data, because there are no external data points for comparison. Like EveryCat said, all he has is last year's results for OOC, which was a measly six games.

[Uwfalum98]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Hmm, 2017, seems like the GSC went 7-4 in the playoffs and three of those four losses were to the GSC.....

[Wide_Right]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

It will be like homefield advantage for the Purple & White!

VSU hasn't the best record with teams with purple uni's.

[Ian Carlson]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Hmm, 2017, seems like the GSC went 7-4 in the playoffs and three of those four losses were to the GSC.....

That's because the rest of the region has been pretty bad at winning playoff games since 2013.

[Matt Witwicki]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

With MSU going 2-1 in the playoffs last year, destroying MW State..who beat Commerce last year.....and then losing the eventual champion..you'd think MSU would be getting more respect than 12th as an unbeaten squad that's closest contest this year was 10 points. Winona lost in the playoffs last year, but they also lost to Commerce. You wouldn't think a loss to the #1 squad would hurt all that much in the overall Massey look.

If Massey is looking back more than 1 season....then it's really not a current computer ranking.

Like Ian said tho, the silo conferences are really hard to wrap your arms around. With NW losing their only game in the playoffs..and then having 2 losses this year and losses a year ago, it's a bit head shaking why they are 2nd overall at 9-2 this year. Massey has to be tapping into 2016 numbers or something.

[Uwfalum98]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Delta State played Tarleton and Grand Valley as well as their GSC schedule and somehow Massey has every MIAA school with a higher SOS. Common core math perhaps......