Final ranking and playoff projections

[Inkblot]

I have an official prediction for the regional rankings, but I'll also explore possibilities of how they might be different and I'll address how that could affect bracketing.

SR1

1. Kutztown (10-1)
2. Shepherd (10-1)
3. Notre Dame (10-1)
4. New Haven (9-1)
5. Bentley (9-1)
6. California (9-1)
7. Slippery Rock (9-2)
8. Shippensburg (9-2)
9. Findlay (8-3)
10. Charleston (8-2)

I know I've said multiple times throughout the week that I expected Slippery Rock to stay ahead of Cal with a loss due to the committee not punishing PSAC title game losers much. But after examining past years again, I've reconsidered. It's not like SRU's profile would be definitely better without the title game... in fact, last week it was the head-to-head that put them ahead when the numbers were close. But now the numbers aren't really close; the closest equivalent I found to this situation was 2017, when West Chester and Shippensburg entered the final week 6th and 7th, then West Chester lost to a 10-0 team and Ship passed them by beating an 0-10 team. There are multiple differences in the present situation, but I haven't found a case where a PSAC title loser was given the lenience that SRU needs now.

I could see Notre Dame being placed behind the NE10 teams, but I'm sticking with inertia here.

SR2Western Colorado beat a better opponent than Augustana or Bemidji State did, closing the SOS gap to the point where I think having fewer losses should put Western ahead. The W%+SOS difference is .041 and .043, compared to .012 and .021 last week.

The SOS margin between the three NSIC teams is now paper-thin, but I think it will end up deciding the order.

I think Central Washington falls one more spot to 7th, but no further since there's no reason to drop them below Midwestern State.

[Inkblot]

[Inkblot]

How potential changes would affect the above bracket:

SRU over Cal doesn't affect anything, as both teams have the exact same teams within driving distance.

Switching UWF and Albany State doesn't change much; UWG and Newberry would keep the same bracket positions. Switching VSU and Bowie would change more, as UWG would be moved to the opposite half of the bracket to play the 3 seed, even if that's UWF; Newberry would play the 4 seed.

If Savannah State is in instead of LR and VSU is still #1, SSU would play UWF and UWG would play ASU regardless of the seeds of UWF and ASU, while Newberry would play Bowie. If Bowie is #1 in this scenario, Newberry would play the #4, SSU would play #2 VSU, and UWG the #3.

If NDC is seeded below the NE10 teams, they would play #3 UNH and #6 would play #4 Bentley.

If NWMSU ends up as the #4, the above pairings remain the same. If Harding ends up as the #4... Lindenwood plays them. Ouachita plays Angelo State and Central Washington plays Grand Valley State.

If Washburn is in instead of Ouachita, they likely play Harding.

If Western Colorado does not have a home game, a second flight is necessary. Western probably flies to Angelo and CWU to Bemidji, and UNK drives to Augie.

[Horror Child]

I have an official prediction for the regional rankings, but I'll also explore possibilities of how they might be different and I'll address how that could affect bracketing.

SR1

1. Kutztown (10-1)
2. Shepherd (10-1)
3. Notre Dame (10-1)
4. New Haven (9-1)
5. Bentley (9-1)
6. California (9-1)
7. Slippery Rock (9-2)
8. Shippensburg (9-2)
9. Findlay (8-3)
10. Charleston (8-2)

I know I've said multiple times throughout the week that I expected Slippery Rock to stay ahead of Cal with a loss due to the committee not punishing PSAC title game losers much. But after examining past years again, I've reconsidered. It's not like SRU's profile would be definitely better without the title game... in fact, last week it was the head-to-head that put them ahead when the numbers were close. But now the numbers aren't really close; the closest equivalent I found to this situation was 2017, when West Chester and Shippensburg entered the final week 6th and 7th, then West Chester lost to a 10-0 team and Ship passed them by beating an 0-10 team. There are multiple differences in the present situation, but I haven't found a case where a PSAC title loser was given the lenience that SRU needs now.

I could see Notre Dame being placed behind the NE10 teams, but I'm sticking with inertia here.

I'll offer a different perspective as if we were on today's call. LOL.

SR1

1. Kutztown (10-1)
2. Shepherd (10-1)
3. Bentley (9-1)
4. Notre Dame (10-1)
5. New Haven (9-1)
6. Slippery Rock (9-2)
7. California (9-1)
8. Shippensburg (9-2)
9. Findlay (8-3)
10. Charleston (8-2)

Kutztown and Shepherd are no brainers.
Bentley's OWP improved with Assumption and New Haven's tanked with Franklin Pierce. Keeping Notre Dame between them averts applying the head-to-head result.
This is different than Cal and Rock. While I agree that the numbers put Cal ahead of the Rock, since they're adjacent on the list, the head-to-had is considered and Rock goes in front.
From a numbers perspective, I actually have Charleston ahead of Findlay, but there's been positioning over recent weeks to have the GMAC champion at 9/earned access.

This avoids Bentley-New Haven rematch in first round and stays under flight mileage limits.
Kutztown - Bye
Findlay to Shepherd - 428 miles
Slippery Rock to Bentley - 559 miles
New Haven to Notre Dame - 530 miles

[Ram040506]

I'll offer a different perspective as if we were on today's call. LOL.

SR1

1. Kutztown (10-1)
2. Shepherd (10-1)
3. Bentley (9-1)
4. Notre Dame (10-1)
5. New Haven (9-1)
6. Slippery Rock (9-2)
7. California (9-1)
8. Shippensburg (9-2)
9. Findlay (8-3)
10. Charleston (8-2)

Kutztown and Shepherd are no brainers.
Bentley's OWP improved with Assumption and New Haven's tanked with Franklin Pierce. Keeping Notre Dame between them averts applying the head-to-head result.
This is different than Cal and Rock. While I agree that the numbers put Cal ahead of the Rock, since they're adjacent on the list, the head-to-had is considered and Rock goes in front.
From a numbers perspective, I actually have Charleston ahead of Findlay, but there's been positioning over recent weeks to have the GMAC champion at 9/earned access.

This avoids Bentley-New Haven rematch in first round and stays under flight mileage limits.
Kutztown - Bye
Findlay to Shepherd - 428 miles
Slippery Rock to Bentley - 559 miles
New Haven to Notre Dame - 530 miles

I think this is it, avoid the rematches.

[CatFan88]

Question...how will the committee weight the criteria? Harding has better WP, more wins over ranked opponents. NW has better SOS/OWP. If the committee could weight WU win over NW to put them in over OBU, then can't the committee weight Harding's loss to SESOU on the road and NW loss to WU on the road too? Probably splitting hairs, but seems if your going to weight good wins, then good losses get weighted too?

I understand the frustration. Appreciate all the work.

[LeftSider]

Question...how will the committee weight the criteria? Harding has better WP, more wins over ranked opponents. NW has better SOS/OWP. If the committee could weight WU win over NW to put them in over OBU, then can't the committee weight Harding's loss to SESOU on the road and NW loss to WU on the road too? Probably splitting hairs, but seems if your going to weight good wins, then good losses get weighted too?

I understand the frustration. Appreciate all the work.

[CatFan88]

Yea, typing without proofing. Happens.

[NewHaven Alum]

I'll offer a different perspective as if we were on today's call. LOL.

SR1

1. Kutztown (10-1)
2. Shepherd (10-1)
3. Bentley (9-1)
4. Notre Dame (10-1)
5. New Haven (9-1)
6. Slippery Rock (9-2)
7. California (9-1)
8. Shippensburg (9-2)
9. Findlay (8-3)
10. Charleston (8-2)

Kutztown and Shepherd are no brainers.
Bentley's OWP improved with Assumption and New Haven's tanked with Franklin Pierce. Keeping Notre Dame between them averts applying the head-to-head result.
This is different than Cal and Rock. While I agree that the numbers put Cal ahead of the Rock, since they're adjacent on the list, the head-to-had is considered and Rock goes in front.
From a numbers perspective, I actually have Charleston ahead of Findlay, but there's been positioning over recent weeks to have the GMAC champion at 9/earned access.

This avoids Bentley-New Haven rematch in first round and stays under flight mileage limits.
Kutztown - Bye
Findlay to Shepherd - 428 miles
Slippery Rock to Bentley - 559 miles
New Haven to Notre Dame - 530 miles

I just do not see how Bentley is moving ahead of New Haven due to head to head and both teams played the same exact opponents with the exception of OOC where Bentley played West Chester (6-5) and New Haven played Bowie State (10-0 with D2 opponents).

[OldBison]

[LeftSider]

Yea, typing without proofing. Happens.

hahah it does!

[CatFan88]

I'm with you although OBU and WU are close. I think Harding stays at 2 seed. NW really needed a FHSU win yesterday to have any chance at bumping Harding. My feeling is Inkblot has it right.

[Inkblot]

I'll offer a different perspective as if we were on today's call. LOL.

SR1

1. Kutztown (10-1)
2. Shepherd (10-1)
3. Bentley (9-1)
4. Notre Dame (10-1)
5. New Haven (9-1)
6. Slippery Rock (9-2)
7. California (9-1)
8. Shippensburg (9-2)
9. Findlay (8-3)
10. Charleston (8-2)

Kutztown and Shepherd are no brainers.
Bentley's OWP improved with Assumption and New Haven's tanked with Franklin Pierce. Keeping Notre Dame between them averts applying the head-to-head result.
This is different than Cal and Rock. While I agree that the numbers put Cal ahead of the Rock, since they're adjacent on the list, the head-to-had is considered and Rock goes in front.
From a numbers perspective, I actually have Charleston ahead of Findlay, but there's been positioning over recent weeks to have the GMAC champion at 9/earned access.

This avoids Bentley-New Haven rematch in first round and stays under flight mileage limits.
Kutztown - Bye
Findlay to Shepherd - 428 miles
Slippery Rock to Bentley - 559 miles
New Haven to Notre Dame - 530 miles

I haven't seen that flipping teams based on head-to-head occurs only if they're next to each other. My perception is that teams tend to be grouped into tiers and that head-to-heads are only relevant within a tier (that's been the case in SR2, at least). I have Bentley and UNH in the same tier, and Cal and SRU in different tiers.

[NWFanatic]

[Brandon]

Do you have the Weighted OWPs for the teams?